🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[President Johnson]

The FDP's entrance into the Landtag in Thuringia has now officialy been certified. 73 votes made the difference.

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article203127374/Thueringen-Wahl-FDP-schafft-Einzug-in-CDU-hofft-auf-Viererbuendnis.html

[Pick Up the Phone]

A new Hamburg poll (election in February 2020) got released today, the first one in two months. Quite interesting numbers. Change from the last election in brackets:

CDU: 17.0% (+1.1)
SPD: 25.0% (-20.6)(!)
GRÜNE: 26.0% (+13.7)
FDP: 8.0% (+0.6)
LINKE: 12.0% (+3.5)
AfD: 8.0% (+1.9)
Others: 4.0% (-0.2)

There's also a new Berlin poll (election in 2021):

CDU: 18.0% (+0.4)
SPD: 15.0% (-6.6)
GRÜNE: 25.0% (+9.8 )
FDP: 5.0% (-1.7)
LINKE: 16.0% (+0.4)
AfD: 11.0% (-3.2)
Others: 10.0% (+0.9)

[Pick Up the Phone]

The majority of the GRÜNEN members in Brandenburg (90.8%) have voted in favor of a so-called Kenya coalition with SPD and CDU. Their approval was the last pending issue - now the rest is a mere formality. Will be only the second time we see this coalition on the state level.

Dietmar Woidke (SPD) will continue to lead the future coalition with the SPD getting five (State Chancellery; Finance; Education; Economy and Labor; Science), the CDU three (Interior; Infrastructure; Justice), and the GRÜNEN two (Environment and Agriculture; Social Affairs, Women, and Health) cabinet positions. Personally, I'm not too happy with this; I think that the GRÜNEN could have aimed quite a bit higher.

In Saxony, coalition talks between the three same partners are supposed to be completed by the end of the year. Thuringia... well, nothing new on this front. The state CDU remains paralyzed and refuses to hold talks with the LINKE while the state AfD tries to unnerve Mohring and friends.

_____

Meanwhile, the SPD benefits from the basic pension for low-income workers that was recently passed. According to Trend Research/Radio Hamburg, they are now back in first place in the North. Change from the last election in brackets:

Hamburg 2020

CDU: 13.0% (-2.9)
SPD: 32.0% (-13.6)
GRÜNE: 23.0% (+10.7)
FDP: 7.0% (-0.4)
LINKE: 12.0% (+3.5)
AfD: 8.0% (+1.9)
Others: 4.0% (-0.2)

[Yeahsayyeah]

It looks like the Kenya coalition in Sachsen-Anhalt could break up over the far-right past (and present) of a CDU Landtag member.

[Pick Up the Phone]

It looks like the Kenya coalition in Sachsen-Anhalt could break up over the far-right past (and present) of a CDU Landtag member.

This guy is not even a Landtag member but an ordinary party member who represents the CDU in some boring district level committees. And the problem is evidently not his far-right past(?) but rather that the state CDU refuses to take appropriate action (i.e. kick him out of the party). The GRÜNEN have every right to be appalled and disgusted.

For some strange reason, the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt is really running wild at the moment. A few weeks ago, the Minister of the Interior, Holger Stahlknecht, tried to appoint a controversial police union leader called Rainer Wendt (who is quite famous in Germany for his extremely populist claims and hypocritical behavior) to the position of Staatssekretär (basically the highest-ranked civil servant in a state ministry). Both SPD and GRÜNE firmly rejected this appointment; and then it turned out that Wendt was prohibited from getting such a promotion for legal reasons. Subsequently, the CDU faction almost mutinied against Stahlknecht who was accused of gross incompetence and political stupidity. Another low point was the state party convention last week, when the delegates agreed on a manifesto according to which "Islam doesn't belong to Germany" - a frontal attack against Merkel, former President Christian Wulff, and many others from the more moderate CDU wing who repeatedly stated that Islam belongs to Germany and is an important part of contemporary German culture. One might agree or not, but the idea that a few (overwhelmingly white, male, Christian, and old) CDU state delegates decide about German identity in the 21st century is laughable. It's neither their job, nor is there any strategic advantage in going full AfD in a Kenya coalition...

And now this. It seems that they haven't learned anything. Time for Merkel or AKK to call Haseloff and tell him to get his sh*t together.

[Middle-aged Europe]

After the Wendt and Möritz controversies I'm getting the impression that some in the Saxon-Anhaltian CDU want to break up the coalition on purpose. Perhaps not minister-president Haseloff himself, but some lower echelon people.

One of the main problems with the Wendt affair was also that the CDU unilaterally made a potentially controversial personnel decision without even consulting or notifying their coalition partners beforehand. And now the CDU outright threatened to terminate the coalition over a single tweet by the Greens state chapter's social media team... which seems a bit like overkill, unless there are some additional motives for that action. But maybe there are so aggressive now because their still pissed over the Wendt thing?

Anyway, today's news was that all parties involved started to back down a bit.

[Beezer]

The Greens should mind their own business. They're gonna bring down a coalition over the non-expulsion of some local party member who claims he's no longer a member of the far right?

[Pick Up the Phone]

The Greens should mind their own business. They're gonna bring down a coalition over the non-expulsion of some local party member who claims he's no longer a member of the far right?

Doesn't really matter what this nazi is claiming. He was a member of the far-right Uniter network until, uh... yesterday (and apparently only quit under mounting pressure)? He has a Black Sun tattoo and still holds that the only reason is his "interest in Celtic mythology"? All right, seems totally convincing to me.

But, as I already said, the problem is indeed not him but rather the state CDU and its toxic combination of incompetence and right-wing populist tendencies. Given the full scope of recent developments, the GRÜNEN have every reason to contemplate whether they want to maintain such as coalition or not. The Wendt affair was already enough of a scandal but with its stubbornness in the Mörike affair, the state CDU proves that it doesn't really care about the fight against the extreme right. And that should be a major problem for the GRÜNEN.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The SPD apparently doesn't mind its own business too and has linked a further continuation of the coalition in Saxony-Anhalt with "a credible commitment against right-wing extremism" by the state government.

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2019-12/fall-robert-moeritz-sachsen-anhalt-kenia-koalition-fortsetzung-bedingungen

[Middle-aged Europe]

And apparently a second member of the Saxon-Anhaltian CDU with contacts to the far-right Uniter network has now popped up: Kai Mehliß from the "Conservative Circle" of the state CDU.

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/cdu-funktionaer-moeritz-zu-rechts-fuer-uniter-doch-fuer-die-cdu-reichts/25342718.html


Background: What is Uniter?

Uniter has been described in media reports as the official front for the so-called Hannibal network. The Hannibal network was a secret group of right-wing survivalists consisting of members of the German Army, the police, and the intelligence community whose existence was originally discovered and exposed by the Public Prosecutor General's office (and subsequently the Army's Military Intelligence), starting in 2017. A few Hannibal members had to stand trial for planning and preparing terrorist attacks against Syrian refugees.

Uniter is (so far) a legal association but membership between them and Hannibal seems to overlap a but. The terrorist from Christchurch, Brenton Tarrant, reportedly also had links to the Uniter association.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The debate about Saxony-Anhalt seems to have shifted a bit from "coalition in Saxony-Anhalt is about to break up" to "CDU in Saxony-Anhalt has a problem with right-wing extremists within their ranks" which ironically may have stabilized the state government for now since the CDU is not about to boot SPD and Greens out when the former is politically on the defensive anyway.

The story has also been picked up by some international media outlets:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/18/members-of-angela-merkels-party-found-to-have-far-right-links

[Middle-aged Europe]

Two and half months after the election Thuringia still hasn't a new government, although CDU state leader Mike Möhring has now made another attempt at selling a Left-CDU cooperation to his own party, this time calling it a Projektregierung ("project government").

[President Johnson]

Two and half months after the election Thuringia still hasn't a new government, although CDU state leader Mike Möhring has now made another attempt at selling a Left-CDU cooperation to his own party, this time calling it a Projektregierung ("project government").

There are also talks with the FDP for some projects. The state will get a red-red-green minority government. But I sincerely doubt it will last for the whole five year term. Minority cabinets rarely went well in Germany, even though it's regular in other European countries like Denmark.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Two and half months after the election Thuringia still hasn't a new government, although CDU state leader Mike Möhring has now made another attempt at selling a Left-CDU cooperation to his own party, this time calling it a Projektregierung ("project government").

There are also talks with the FDP for some projects. The state will get a red-red-green minority government. But I sincerely doubt it will last for the whole five year term. Minority cabinets rarely went well in Germany, even though it's regular in other European countries like Denmark.

There are two main points of contention between Left/SPD/Greens and CDU/FDP.

1) When will the formal election of the minister-president be held in state parliament (because the current government is only in power in an acting capacity since the election)? The Left would rather do it faster than later, while the CDU maintains a "not so fast, not so fast..." position.

2) How close and how frequent will the two blocks cooperate with each other? The Left/SPD/Green government would prefer frequent meetings to discuss upcoming legislation, while CDU/FDP would prefer to keep some greater distance in order to continue a more formal opposition role.

As far as the stability of minority governments are concerned, I would like to point out that Saxony-Anhalt had a pretty stable one between 1994 and 2002. Of course, this one operated under somewhat different conditions, that is as a SPD minority cabinet supported by the then-PDS instead of a Left/SPD/Green minority cabinet supported by the CDU.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Hamburg Wahl-o-mat is online!

https://www.wahl-o-mat.de/hamburg2020/


1) Animal Protection Party
2) Pirates
3) Left
4) Greens

...

15) AfD

[Yeahsayyeah]

1) Greens
2) Pirates
3) Left

[...]

12) SPD (rofl)
13) CDU
14) FDP
15) AfD


But there are many questions, that are quite symbolism, like "climate emergency declaration" and I'm not too sure about all the implications of the planned Diebsteich train station (I heard more bad things like "a kind of Stuttgart 21 train wreck and a new station in the void") and the use of the Moorburg coal power station for heating.

[President Johnson]

Only with the parties currently in the legislature:

1.) SPD, 71.1%
2.) CDU, 59.2%
2.) Greens, 59.2%
4.) Left, 53.9%
5.) FDP, 47.4%
6.) AfD, 43.4%


With all parties, SPD is second to Free Voters (75%).

[Middle-aged Europe]

More than three months after the election, the Thuringian state parliament will today attempt to elect a new minister-president.

According to the state consitution, you need a majority on the first two ballots, while a plurality of votes is sufficient on the third ballot.

Incumbent MP Bodo Ramelow from the Left is running again with support from SPD and Greens, despite the fact that these three parties don't have a majority any longer. Hence he's aiming for that aforementioned plurality on the third ballot.

The AfD has nominated Christoph Kindervater, the independent right-wing mayor of the village of Sundhausen (population: 350).

Thomas Kemmerich, state chairman of the FDP in Thuringia, has also announced that he's running.... but only on the third ballot and only if Kindervater still running on that ballot as well, to prevent the election of an AfD minister-president.

Election is supposed to start in about half an hour or so.


The seat distrubution in the state parliament:

Left 29
SPD 8
Greens 5
(=  42)

CDU 21
FDP 5
(= 26)

AfD 22

[Middle-aged Europe]

Results of the first ballot:

Ramelow (Left) - 43 votes
Kindervater (AfD) - 25 votes
Abstentions - 22

No candidate won a majority (= 46 votes), on to the second ballot

[Middle-aged Europe]

Results of the second ballot:

Ramelow (Left) - 44 votes (+1)
Kindervater (AfD) - 22 votes (-3)
Abstentions - 24 (+2)

No majority for Ramelow, on to the third ballot. If Kindervater doesn't withdraw, the Kemmerich candidacy should be formally announced now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Kemmerich (and Kindervater) are running in the third ballot. I wonder if it has ever been the case in post-WWII Germany to have three candidates for minister-president and not one of them is from either CDU or SPD?

There was also some speculation that the AfD may keep Kindervater as their official candidate on the third ballot while sort of stealth-voting for Kemmerich now and hence making him minister-president instead of Ramelow. That seems unlikely though. In any case, we're soon gonna see.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I was utterly wrong. Kenmerich was just elected MP. Game over.

[Cassius]

I was utterly wrong. Kenmerich was just elected MP. Game over.

With AfD support?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Results of the third ballot

Kemmerich (FDP) - 45 votes
Ramelow (Left) - 44 votes
Kindervater (AfD) - 0 votes

[Cassius]

This will be fun...