🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[urutzizu]

Saxonys AFD is running considerably more to the traditional right and away from the far right "Vogelschiss/Denkmal der Schande" Höcke-aligned fractions in thuringia and Brandenburg. Saxony is also the only state where there are serious discussions in the CDU about Black-blue (Blaubeere?) coalitions. Kretschmer has denied it, but many in the CDU fraction want to consider it.

The AFDs strategy is obvious. They want to either break the Cordon sanitaire or destroy the CDUs credibilty by forcing them into ever more instable constellations, even with the linke (as Daniel Günther has proposed).

[urutzizu]

So, what do you mean by "Cordon sanitaire", a term that was originally aimed at the stripe between the German Reich and the Soviet Union consisting of freshly minted states after WWI?

The Cordon sanitaire has a quite similar in political discourse as in historical discourse, just that instead of trying to isolate the post-revolution Soviet Union it is a method to isolate parties precieved to be extreme. It was first used in Belgium with the far-right Vlaams Belang, and is intended as a sanitary curtain that all mainstream parties adhere to and agree to not cooperate whatsoever with said extremists. In Germany this is of course the tactic used against the Afd currently and against the PDS until the late 90s when some SPD MPs in the East started (against Schröders will) to work with them.

We are currently at the point where the Coalitions that the mainsteam parties have to engage in (in the east) are getting way to large and instable so that the CDU will have to eventually have to break the cordon sanitaire either with Die Linke of the AFD to avoid imminent negative majorities (AFD+Linke are 40-45% in some states, how the hell can you say "oh well these are all fringe extremists, we arent talking to them"). Also the Ostracization and constant Opposition, and self-imposed Victim role (see the Bundestag-vice presidency) is only helping the Afd, instead of keeping them from power. This is sorta also what happened in Weimar Germany with the NSDAP so i am not exactly optimistic about the Cordon Sanitiaire.

[urutzizu]

That's no real damage though ...

The AfD will win quite a few direct seats in Saxony this year (probably around 20-30 of them), which can be supplemented even with the smaller number of 18 list candidates.

And they can use this decision to shore up their voters, because they can spin it as a conspiracy theory against the AfD by the "hostile" election commission ...

The Federal Constitutional Court has rejected a Appeal by the AFD against the decision on procedural grounds . The AFD also has an Appeal before Saxonys Constitutional court, the hearing will be tomorrow.

[urutzizu]

Indeed, it was only a preliminary ruling however, a complete ruling on whether the disqualification was legal will be given on the 16. August, by which time Nominations will have closed already.

Both technically and politically a big victory for the AFD.
Even with 18 list Candidates they were never in any trouble of not having enough names, unless there was both massive tactical voting for CDU in the direct mandates AND the AFD overperformed on their second vote massively, but with this ruling they are mathematically in the dry no matter what happens.   

Also, of course, they will now have a Court Judgement "proving" they were wronged by the establishment (although the court never actually said that.)

The reason for why 30 candidates were allowed, was, by the way, that the first 30 candidates were voted on by the AFD party congress individually, but then, after that, due to time constraints the other 30 seats were approved en bloc. Also they used two different days for the party nominations.

[urutzizu]

Not only did we shatter an all-time record in Germany today, it was hotter here than in Dubai

https://twitter.com/AfDimBundestag/status/1148524694280105984

This tweet from the AFD is looking a bit ridiculous now

[urutzizu]

Linke are now strongest Party in Thüringen, thanks to CDU and SPD collapse, AFD surge.
Wont help Ramelow much though, as Red-Red-Green has no majority, nor has Jamaika nor has CDU-SPD-FDP.
And that my friends would be the first negative Majority since Weimar.

So what are the options:
Linke+CDU+???    (Extremely unlikely although Ramelow is one of the moderates in the Left)
AFD+CDU+FDP     (No way, if anywhere then in Saxony, and even there its like <5% Chance)
Linke+AFD            (National-Bolschewik Putin Fifth Collumn Coalition only in my dreams )
Snap election         (Very likely)
and the same,
even more chaos  
as before  

Someone will need to break the cordon sanitaire or there will be no more governments in the east. But who will the CDU choose they hate a bit less? AFD or Linke?
 

[urutzizu]

I mean with R2G at 44%+awarded others, its likely sitting at 46-48% of the chamber. That's more than enough for you to first deny and hope for the MOE, and then if it does come to pass, stick to your guns and hope someone provides outside support so as to avoid repeat elections. And FDP on 5% is certainly the high MOE result, since it missing the threshold gives R2G a majority.

This does not happen in Germany. Minority Governments are already a big no-no in Germany (google Andrea Ypsilanti) and that was just the toleration of a red-green Government by the left. Who would tolerate the Red-red-green government? CDU? FDP? That would be a death sentence for the party involved. In other countries, i would agree maybe, but not in Germany.

Also there would not be a majority for Red-Red-Green even if the FDP were out.

[urutzizu]

Minority government led by CDU or Linke, which won't last a full term but will pass at least one budget. Followed by early elections that may result in a more ordinary coalition government thanks to strategic voting.

What do you envisiage when you say "strategic voting" ?

As to your second point i doubt that certain Members of the CDU would break Party discipline and vote with R2G, but ok that might conceivably be possible.

[urutzizu]

1. I recognize no minority govt has ever been done before in Germany, and that Germany does not do this sort of thing. That's why I said 'hope' rather than negotiate, since it would basically be putting the govt to a vote and blessing that someone will prefer a govt to new elections. Like pile noted, this would be the kind of thing that collapses as soon as someone gets a good polling lead.

I am being excessively pedantic here, i know, but we have actually had minority Governments on the state level, and sometimes they even worked quite well, such as in Saxony-Anhalt from 1994-2002. In NRW there was also a successful minority Government formed in 2010, although that broke apart 2 Years later after die linke refused to support the budget.  
Basically the NRW episode and the Ypsilanti thing massively discredited the idea of minority governments (although they are occasionally still tossed around), and since then there havent been any serious attempts in that regard. Now i do think that the Idea in principle could return, its just that until now it had always been centre-left Governments backed by the left, and this would be a Left party government backed by the right. I just dont think that they are there jet, although they are closer than say 10 years ago. For those interested on the Subject CDU-Linke relations, there is a interview with Bodo Ramelow and (very moderate) CDU Daniel Günther MP of SH who in the Bundesrat have had a very good relationship, and both seem to be opening to a "historic compromise": https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bodo-ramelow-und-daniel-guenther-zeit-der-ausgrenzung-ist-vorbei-a-1271775.html      

The idea of Pilzconzept is plausable, but not probable in my opinion. I believe Votes on electing the Government in the Landtag are secret, so potential CDU defectors could do so easily. However party discipline is still very strong in germany (completely different to the U.S.) and if the CDU fraction as a whole says no, i expect that the MPs will fall in line. There still is a ton of Bad Blood in the CDU, especially in the eastern branches, to the Party that came out of the SED, and it is similar in the left towards the CDU (though ironically less so in the eastern branches).  

As for tactical Voting, i am sceptical. When there has been tactical voting in Germany, and it is not common here, it has been Supporters of the larger parties (esp. CDU) voting tactically to bail out the smaller parties on their side (especially FDP) (leihstimmen). This was very prominent in Niedersachsen 2012. I would not know of it ever happening the other way round, especially since this would actually have the potential to hurt their "side" overall, although the "sides" dont really exist since 2013 anymore, so who knows.

[urutzizu]

Where can I check all of these election results?

There is no national results page. The regional broadcaster generally has nice interactive result maps, i linked the ones for the states that held local elections in 2019:

Thüringen
Saxony-Anhalt
Saarland
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
Rheinland-Pfalz
Brandenburg
Baden-Württemberg
Saxony

Edit: Forgot Hamburg

[urutzizu]

The AFD is running a interesting campaign in the eastern elections: Is seems to be focused around "Wende 2.0" and including much more German Symbolism (incl. Flags) and the slogan of "Wir sind das Volk (We are the people)"-
A recent speech by Alexander Gauland in Saxony: "Just like then, my friends, angry citizens are taking to the streets, to demand their rights. Just like then, these Citizens are being attacked by violent mobs, being defamed by the media, and being punished in their occupations. Again Saxony is the heart of the resistance"

They are putting themselves on the footing of the East German Civil rights movement of 1989 and comparing the current German State, or the "Merkel regime" if you so will, to the socialist regime in East Germany. It is a problematic comparison of course, but is is working. The fact that it is shows quite clearly how east Germans feel like they were sold down the river since Unification, and how split Germany is as a country. The AFD feels at times actually like encouraging east german nationalism, but at the same time their central ideology remains German nationalism. It is bizzare.

[urutzizu]

Isnt that the whole raison d'etre of the Linke party?

Indeed, well it was. The immigration issue ended that, and now it seems the AFD is taking that mantle of "protectors of the east". Not sure if that is such a good strategy in the long term however. The AFD has double as many voters (4 Million) in the West as in the East (2 Million). Trying to max out its results the east and turning off its more middle class voters in the west is not really sensible.


In other news Germany is now likely in recession territory, after the Economy shrank in the second quarter. This means that all the nice spending promises of the SPD to attempt to buy back their voters, such as the minimum pension, are likely as dead as the dodo. Take into account the end of the solidarity tax, and there will be some serious belt tightening. The SPD is angry, as expected, they want Germany to take on more debt to finance their pet projects. Merkel says no. Maybe the SPD will notice that there is now no real reason to continue the coalition, except as to avoid elections.
In reality both are irresponsible. We do actually need a stimulus, as basically all economists say, but infrastructure spending, not voter bribing. But that is not allowed in Germany.  

[urutzizu]

In other news Germany is now likely in recession territory, after the Economy shrank in the second quarter. This means that all the nice spending promises of the SPD to attempt to buy back their voters, such as the minimum pension, are likely as dead as the dodo.
In reality both are irresponsible. We do actually need a stimulus, as basically all economists say, but infrastructure spending, not voter bribing. But that is not allowed in Germany.  

Wouldnt that also have an impact on the Green Party and their plans to spend trillions of euros putting a wind turbine in every backyard?

To a certain degree, yes. The greens plans to fast-track the coal phaseout and replace it all with wind/solar are very unrealistic, even if we were able to spend. If they were to enter Government, they will almost certainly have to moderate their plans significantly, unless they want large-scale power outages.    

That said, depends on how long this downturn goes on for. But as i have already argued in the economics thread, all indications are that this is not a temporary thing. If, and indications do point this way, this goes for a global downturn, mix in Brexit, increasing China-US/Western tensions, and Germany is truly screwed, because of our export-dependent economy. Climate Change will be on the back burner then, because in that case hard Austerity awaits.

The ironic part, is of course that right now interest rates and our debt are so low, that we could easily finance a stimulus, even climate infrastructure. But our constitution does not allow that. It allows us only to borrow in a large recession. And during a large recession the rates will be high. Its contrarian economics.    

[urutzizu]

Is this a new poll?

 https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/landtagswahl-in-brandenburg-die-afd-liegt-deutlich-vor-spd-gruenen-und-cdu/24903194.html

If so, the numbers are:

AfD: 21.0%
SPD: 18.2%
Grüne: 17.2%
CDU: 17.1%
Linke: 14.7%
FDP: 5.5%
Other: 6.3%

Yes, the poll is from yesterday; but with 28 days, the survey period is very huge, which isn't quite handy two weeks before an election.

Indeed, and its Civey, an online pollster with not the best reputation.

[urutzizu]

The Saxony Supreme Court has ruled in favour of the AfD to expand their candidate list from 18 to 30, which would be a quarter of seats in parliament.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/afd-sachsen-darf-landeswahlliste-laut-verfassungsgericht-erweitern-a-1279043.html

In a final decision, instead of the preliminary one then, the Saxony supreme court has upheld its prior verdict. 30 candidates can run. So issue settled, AFD is more than safe.
 
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/afd-sachsenwahl-101.html

[urutzizu]

The AFD lacks well-known or charismatic candidates, even as their message may be popular in the East. Kretschmer has a 66% Approval rating in Saxony, even AFD voters like him. No wonder: He is basically running on a platform that could have been AFD in west Germany. Anti-immigration, pro-russia, pro direct democracy, you name it. Just without the toxicity of them. All the while, who is the AFD running in Saxony again? And their Candidate in Brandenburg has only been in the News because of that banned neo-nazi group he was affiliated with  

I remember a year or so ago Nigel Farage gave a speech at a AFD rally. The other AFD speakers only got a modest reaction, but Farage, despite giving the Speech in English, got a rapturous reception from the Crowd. One of the people there said to a journalist "oh if only we had someone like Farage"
The AFD indeed needs a German Farage, Salvini or Marine LePen. Nobody really votes AFD because they are convinced by Meuthen, Höcke or Gauland. To break through that 15% Ceiling, they need somebody to make the party more than just a protest vote against immigration policy. They need somebody that can excite.

[urutzizu]

Tomorrow will be interesting. I have a feeling that there will be significant tactical voting in both Saxony (for the CDU) and to a lesser extent in  Brandenburg (for the SPD).

Tactical Voting could screw quite a few things up, especially in Saxony, if it is done on the constituency vote but not the list vote, as happened in 2017. There the AFD won a plurality of the List vote in Saxony (27,0%), but won only 3/16 constituency seats, because of tactical voting in favour of the CDU on the constituency vote. At the time this was not an issue for the AFD, as the federal election law completely compensates overhang seats, so the AFD just got more list seats instead.

Now this is where the problem is: The Saxony election law (and the Brandenburg law) does not provide for this. In Saxony there is only allowed to be 1 Compensation Seat for 1 Overhang Seat. Without going into the math too much, if the CDU again sweeps the Constituency seats, but only gets about 25-30% of the List Vote, they will be overrepresented in the Landtag, and the AFD will especially suffer. Coalitions could then be possible which did not actually get a plurality of the vote. Prepare for legal Battles in this Case.
In Brandenburg Compensation Seats are only awarded if a party overhangs by at least 3 seats. This too could allow for small misrepresentation in the Landtag. However the Major parties are expected to divide up the constituency mandates in Brandenburg quite evenly, so it should not be an issue. 

[urutzizu]

Brandenburg could see lots of center right votes wasted with fdp and fw maybe missing threshold. Is it fair to consider them center right?

The former yes, the latter is more of a protest party against the Building of Berlin-Brandenburg airport, a project infamous of its delays, incompetence, and overspending. Their Leader Peter Vida, a German-hungarian, is broadly conservative however.
They could actually get into the Landtag even if they miss the threshold, as long as they win at least 1 constituency. Last time they did just that, when they won the seat of Teltow-Fläming III, near the Airport. This time Eyes will be on the Constituency of Barnim II, where Vida is running. Most say he has realistic Chances of Winning there.

[urutzizu]

Tomorrow will be interesting. I have a feeling that there will be significant tactical voting in both Saxony (for the CDU) and to a lesser extent in  Brandenburg (for the SPD).

The AFD has all reason to be very happy, but yet they have been outshone.

[urutzizu]

Look at die Linke: Biggest Losers in Both. Thats where a ton of the AFD votes are coming from.
But the Party leadership keeps insisting on "Open Borders!" and "No deportations!". There is the Bill. Cant wait until Kipping gives us another "Lets wait and analyse.."
There really isnt that much to analyse....

[urutzizu]

Görlitz III is the 1st district fully counted in Saxony.

AfD candidate beats CDU candidate by 38-34 and AfD beats CDU 37-36 in the list vote.

I would not have expected this. The complete opposite from 2017. Now AFD Candidates are running ahead of their Party.

[urutzizu]

To those interested in an interactive Map of the Results as they fill in:
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/landtagswahl-sachsen-2019-alle-ergebnisse-im-ueberblick-a-1281842.html

[urutzizu]

I think right now there are 4 districts that have been won by the AfD with candidates not on the list...

Erzgebirge 2
Vogtland 1
Mittelsachsen 4
Bautzen 3

Strange. I can count 7 right now:
Görlitz 1
Bautzen 4
Bautzen 3
Nordsachsen 3
Mittelsachsen 4
Erzgebirge 3
Vogtland 1
(assuming AFD dont win anything in Dresden/Leipzig)

Not that much of this matters anyway, it might make the difference whether its CDU/SPD or CDU/SPD rather than Kenia. Its not like 2002, where literally 1 Constituency decided the Federal Government...

[urutzizu]

Its one hell of a Urban-Rural divide for the Greens. They are winning Constituencies in Leipzig and Dresden but barely cracking 5% in most Rural ones. In Erzgebirge 2 they are on 2,9%.

[urutzizu]

Clear now. AFD will win 7 or 8 Constituencies where the Candidate is not on the list. The 7 I mentioned plus possibly Dresden 6. ARD is saying 116 total seats, ZDF says 120. They will be in the dry under ARDs projection but will miss out on 2/3 underhang seats with ZDF. Yes that word exists

Edit: They are out in Dresden 6, so 7 it is.