🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[America Needs R'hllor]

Ugh looks like Afd will enter. Sad! But it is interesting that FDP are, once again, very very close to the 5%. Looks like their core base is something around that number (they did miss it federally not that long ago), while the other parties have a more stable base.

[DL]

Why does the FDP even continue to exist when they are so indistinguishable from the CDU? What is their “unique selling proposition”? I know they were once nicknamed “the party of doctors and dentists” but do doctors and dentists really need their own party?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Preliminary official result of the Hamburg election:

SPD 39.0%
Greens 24.2%
CDU 11.2%
Left 9.1%
AfD 5.3%
FDP 5.0%

[windjammer]

So red-red-green next german federal election is way likelier than before the thuringen debacle?

[Middle-aged Europe]

So red-red-green next german federal election is way likelier than before the thuringen debacle?

Maybe, although Hamburg also underlined the major problems CDU/FDP/AfD are facing in major cities if they don't have someone like Ole von Beust.

The long-term effects of Thuringia are still a bit uncertain, especially since we don't know the outcome of the upcoming CDU leadership contest. Obivously, the CDU has developed some significant internal fractures which require some form a solution.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The FDP could fall below 5% in Hamburg again because it is suspected that the votes for the Greens and the FDP were accidentally switched with each other in a precinct in Hamburg-Langenhorn.

[Hnv1]

why are the SPD still so popular in Hamburg, even in the posh areas?

[Middle-aged Europe]

why are the SPD still so popular in Hamburg, even in the posh areas?

Yesterday evening, TV coverage spent a lot of time discussung how the SPD in Hamburg did everything to distance itself as much as possible from the federal SPD. For instance, the SPD co-chairs on the federal level, Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans, didn't have a single campaign event in Hamburg. Instead, the Hamburgian SPD ran entirely on the popularity of its mayor and the current state government. The Tschentscher administration had pretty high approval ratings across the board. For instance, 59% of the CDU voters approved of the incumbent government:



According to the exit polls, "environment and climate change" were also the most important issues and the SPD in Hamburg tried to a run a green-ish campaign in the process. That obviously wasn't enough to prevent the Greens from rising more than 10% compared to the last election but maybe it helped in limiting the damage for the SPD there:



The SPD was also regarded as the most competent party in the area of economic policies:

[Middle-aged Europe]

The FDP could fall below 5% in Hamburg again because it is suspected that the votes for the Greens and the FDP were accidentally switched with each other in a precinct in Hamburg-Langenhorn.

This accidental vote-swap has been confirmed, meaning that the FDP lost 423 votes in Hamburg-Langenhorn. Unless they were undercounted someplace else this means that they're most likely under 5%.

[CumbrianLefty]

How would the FDP not making it alter the other parties?

[DL]

If my German is correct it appears that the FDP will NOT make it into the house.

[jeron]

If my German is correct it appears that the FDP will NOT make it into the house.

There is still no preliminary official result. But according to the latest unofficial results FDP would be at 4.9%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Breaking: Hamburg's elections officer has confirmed that the FDP has won only 4.9% of the vote and therefore failed to pass the 5% threshold. However, FDP lead candidate Anna von Treuenfels managed to get directly elected in her district, meaning that the FDP will hold a single seat in the next state parliament.

[DL]

What is the revised seat distribution with the FDP reduced to 1 seat?

[Middle-aged Europe]

What is the revised seat distribution with the FDP reduced to 1 seat?

Not yet available. The election officer's website says in about half a hour.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New seat distribution according to a calculation by wahlrecht.de:

SPD 54
Greens 33
CDU 15
Left 13
AfD 7
FDP 1

[Middle-aged Europe]

As far as Thuringia is concerned there are now indications that the federal CDU would probably let a Left-CDU cooperation in that state slide (https://www.mdr.de/thueringen/cdu-spitzenpolitiker-voigt-walk-mohring-praesidium-einbestellt-100.html).

After a strong negative reaction from some top CDU people on the weekend, the party itself had to face some negative media editorials - including from some conservative-leaning media - in the direction of: Sure, you're opposed to a Left-CDU cooperation in Thuringia, but you're not providing any alternatives here. You're destructive, not constructive.

[Middle-aged Europe]

On Wednesday, a new attempt at electing a minister-president for Thuringia is scheduled to take place in the state parliament. In addition to Bodo Ramelow, Björn Höcke from the AfD has announced his candidacy.

[mileslunn]

While off topic, looking at federal how likely is a Green-Red-Red coalition as recent polls show them now ahead of parties on the right although rarely does left maintain their high numbers in between elections, but might that be possible or is a Black-Green more likely in next federal election?

[republicanbayer]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Hallaschka_HH/status/1234801221669662721
A woman at a strategic conference of the Left Party talks about shooting the richest 1% of the population, nobody in the audience reacts and Bernd Riexinger, party leader, responds „we won‘t shoot them, we‘ll Uwe them for useful work.“
Remember that a member of this party will be elected minister-president tomorrow thanks to support from SPD, Greens and possibly CDU.

[Middle-aged Europe]

While off topic, looking at federal how likely is a Green-Red-Red coalition as recent polls show them now ahead of parties on the right although rarely does left maintain their high numbers in between elections, but might that be possible or is a Black-Green more likely in next federal election?

If we go by current poll numbers I assume the Greens would prefer Red-Red-Green over Black-Green simply because they could take over the position of Chancellor. The wings of the Green party may differ on that a bit, but since both co-chairs are nominally members of the "Realo" wing right now I suppose they would manage to bring their own wings on board in this case.

It's a similar situation with the SPD. In a reversal of the roles the party wings played in previous grand coalition formation processes I would expect the right wing to argue that it is time for the party to regenerate itself and go into opposition, while the left wing would push for entering a coalition with Greens and Left Party.

As far as the Left is concerned: Sarah Wagenknecht has retired and her successor is usually considered to be more pragmatic, so the main obstacle has been removed here. In any case, Greens/SPD and Left would still need to hold a serious discussion on Germany's membership and role within NATO and EU, among other foreign policy issues.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In another surprising plot twist (the writers are starting to get lazy), a member of the CDU caucus in the Thuringian state parliament has been quarantined due to a possible infection with the Coronavirus.

So far, the election of a new minister-president is still on for tomorrow, but if he's posted positive the rumour is that it could result in the quarantining of the CDU caucus and another postponement of the election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The results of the CDU politician's coronavirus test are expected until 7 p.m. this evening. If he's tested positive, the following people are expected to be quarantined and tested as well according to a SPIEGEL report:

- The entire CDU caucus.
- The three representatives of Left, SPD, and Greens who had recently negotiated with the CDU.
- The members of the state parliament's budget and finance committee.
- Former minister-president Bodo Ramelow.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The CDU politician in question has been issued a clean bill of health which means the election can go forward tomorrow. Better to act quickly now before any more infections can occur.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Does anyone have the full Hamburg results? I can't find anything that goes below Volt's result and lumps everyone else with "other". I wanted to make a proportional Hamburg but without more detailed results I can't