2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 170099 times)
Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1450 on: July 17, 2019, 11:24:28 PM »
Quote from: gracile on July 17, 2019, 11:16:08 PM
CA-21: Former Rep. David Valadao (R) has filed to run against Rep. TJ Cox (D)



Bring it on again Goncalves.
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morgieb
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« Reply #1451 on: July 18, 2019, 12:36:55 AM »
Quote from: gracile on July 17, 2019, 11:16:08 PM
CA-21: Former Rep. David Valadao (R) has filed to run against Rep. TJ Cox (D)


Weird move given that this is the sort of seat where increased turnout will only help the Dems.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1452 on: July 18, 2019, 01:22:31 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 17, 2019, 06:10:59 PM
Kevin McCarthy's PAC donated to Dan Lipinski



LOL, not enough to actually help Lipinski but enough to cause mischief.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #1453 on: July 18, 2019, 08:50:26 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 17, 2019, 06:10:59 PM
Kevin McCarthy's PAC donated to Dan Lipinski



The Newman campaign’s attack ads just write themselves...
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1454 on: July 18, 2019, 12:59:44 PM »
Isn’t Valadao in debt up to his eye balls? I’m surprised he didn’t just cash out as a lobbyist or something. Seems like a poor decision
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1455 on: July 18, 2019, 09:10:51 PM »
Quote from: TrendsareReal on July 18, 2019, 12:59:44 PM
Isn’t Valadao in debt up to his eye balls? I’m surprised he didn’t just cash out as a lobbyist or something. Seems like a poor decision

Yeah he was one of the poorest members of congress and even his farm was being repo’d iirc.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #1456 on: July 18, 2019, 09:50:41 PM »
Quote from: Bagel23 on July 18, 2019, 09:10:51 PM
Quote from: TrendsareReal on July 18, 2019, 12:59:44 PM
Isn’t Valadao in debt up to his eye balls? I’m surprised he didn’t just cash out as a lobbyist or something. Seems like a poor decision

Yeah he was one of the poorest members of congress and even his farm was being repo’d iirc.
House rules prohibited himself from being involved with the daily operations of the farm, so this probably isnt on him. It was managed by his brothers.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1457 on: July 18, 2019, 10:04:27 PM »
Quote from: Young Conservative on July 18, 2019, 09:50:41 PM
Quote from: Bagel23 on July 18, 2019, 09:10:51 PM
Quote from: TrendsareReal on July 18, 2019, 12:59:44 PM
Isn’t Valadao in debt up to his eye balls? I’m surprised he didn’t just cash out as a lobbyist or something. Seems like a poor decision

Yeah he was one of the poorest members of congress and even his farm was being repo’d iirc.
House rules prohibited himself from being involved with the daily operations of the farm, so this probably isnt on him. It was managed by his brothers.

Ok well whoever’s fault it was, he’s not in good financial shape iirc. Also Valadao is not winning this back in 2020, and Salas is probably slapping himself silly for not running in 2018, he would have won by 5-6 points.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1458 on: July 19, 2019, 02:06:01 AM »
Quote from: Bagel23 on July 18, 2019, 10:04:27 PM
Quote from: Young Conservative on July 18, 2019, 09:50:41 PM
Quote from: Bagel23 on July 18, 2019, 09:10:51 PM
Quote from: TrendsareReal on July 18, 2019, 12:59:44 PM
Isn’t Valadao in debt up to his eye balls? I’m surprised he didn’t just cash out as a lobbyist or something. Seems like a poor decision

Yeah he was one of the poorest members of congress and even his farm was being repo’d iirc.
House rules prohibited himself from being involved with the daily operations of the farm, so this probably isnt on him. It was managed by his brothers.

Ok well whoever’s fault it was, he’s not in good financial shape iirc. Also Valadao is not winning this back in 2020, and Salas is probably slapping himself silly for not running in 2018, he would have won by 5-6 points.

Especially since Salas had himself a "competitive" race in 2018 (Which he won by 13%)
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DaWN
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« Reply #1459 on: July 19, 2019, 04:10:19 AM »
Crystal Ball just moved CA-21 to 'Lean D'

You really can't parody the pundits anymore
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1460 on: July 19, 2019, 10:46:43 AM »
Gabbard raised -$20 in Q2... that’s not a typo
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Nyvin
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« Reply #1461 on: July 19, 2019, 02:12:36 PM »
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on July 19, 2019, 10:46:43 AM
Gabbard raised -$20 in Q2... that’s not a typo



Yeah, she's probably retiring from the House,  good riddance.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #1462 on: July 20, 2019, 04:35:35 AM »
Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.
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Gracile
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« Reply #1463 on: July 20, 2019, 09:15:56 AM »
Quote from: Wesley Troopner on July 20, 2019, 04:35:35 AM
Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.

Safe R, really. If Paul Davis couldn't win this district in a D wave, I'm doubtful another Dem could in a more Republican year (at least in this district).
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1464 on: July 20, 2019, 11:56:02 AM »
Quote from: gracile on July 20, 2019, 09:15:56 AM
Quote from: Wesley Troopner on July 20, 2019, 04:35:35 AM
Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.

Safe R, really. If Paul Davis couldn't win this district in a D wave, I'm doubtful another Dem could in a more Republican year (at least in this district).

Not that it really matters, but did Kelly carry the district?
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Politician
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« Reply #1465 on: July 20, 2019, 11:56:31 AM »
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on July 20, 2019, 11:56:02 AM
Quote from: gracile on July 20, 2019, 09:15:56 AM
Quote from: Wesley Troopner on July 20, 2019, 04:35:35 AM
Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.

Safe R, really. If Paul Davis couldn't win this district in a D wave, I'm doubtful another Dem could in a more Republican year (at least in this district).

Not that it really matters, but did Kelly carry the district?
By nearly 10%
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1466 on: July 20, 2019, 12:15:10 PM »
Quote from: gracile on July 20, 2019, 09:15:56 AM
Quote from: Wesley Troopner on July 20, 2019, 04:35:35 AM
Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.

Safe R, really. If Paul Davis couldn't win this district in a D wave, I'm doubtful another Dem could in a more Republican year (at least in this district).

I was about to say, we can always draw hope from the fact that 2008 was a bigger Dem wave than 2006, and then I remembered that this is one of the districts Democrats *lost* in 2008. Roll Eyes
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Gracile
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« Reply #1467 on: July 20, 2019, 12:49:40 PM »
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on July 20, 2019, 11:56:02 AM
Quote from: gracile on July 20, 2019, 09:15:56 AM
Quote from: Wesley Troopner on July 20, 2019, 04:35:35 AM
Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.

Safe R, really. If Paul Davis couldn't win this district in a D wave, I'm doubtful another Dem could in a more Republican year (at least in this district).

Not that it really matters, but did Kelly carry the district?

She did, but again using gubernatorial results to predict a congressional race is comparing apples to oranges.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1468 on: July 20, 2019, 01:34:15 PM »
Quote from: gracile on July 20, 2019, 12:49:40 PM
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on July 20, 2019, 11:56:02 AM
Quote from: gracile on July 20, 2019, 09:15:56 AM
Quote from: Wesley Troopner on July 20, 2019, 04:35:35 AM
Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.

Safe R, really. If Paul Davis couldn't win this district in a D wave, I'm doubtful another Dem could in a more Republican year (at least in this district).

Not that it really matters, but did Kelly carry the district?

She did, but again using gubernatorial results to predict a congressional race is comparing apples to oranges.

Actually Kansas and  Oklahoma gubernatorials were pretty closely tied to the congressional races. The D candidates generally fell 10 points behind. This is basically why Yoder lost by so much in only a Clinton +1 district.
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Gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1469 on: July 20, 2019, 01:52:38 PM »
Quote from: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on July 20, 2019, 01:34:15 PM
Quote from: gracile on July 20, 2019, 12:49:40 PM
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on July 20, 2019, 11:56:02 AM
Quote from: gracile on July 20, 2019, 09:15:56 AM
Quote from: Wesley Troopner on July 20, 2019, 04:35:35 AM
Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.

Safe R, really. If Paul Davis couldn't win this district in a D wave, I'm doubtful another Dem could in a more Republican year (at least in this district).

Not that it really matters, but did Kelly carry the district?

She did, but again using gubernatorial results to predict a congressional race is comparing apples to oranges.

Actually Kansas and  Oklahoma gubernatorials were pretty closely tied to the congressional races. The D candidates generally fell 10 points behind. This is basically why Yoder lost by so much in only a Clinton +1 district.

I meant in the sense that the Democratic congressional candidate will not overperform the partisan lean of the district by a significant enough margin to win (e.g. they are not going to come close to Kelly's margin in the district).
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1470 on: July 20, 2019, 03:54:42 PM »
Quote from: Nyvin on July 19, 2019, 02:12:36 PM
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on July 19, 2019, 10:46:43 AM
Gabbard raised -$20 in Q2... that’s not a typo



Yeah, she's probably retiring from the House,  good riddance.

I believe that when a candidate drops out of the presidential race, they can transfer any remaining funds from that campaign to another one.  So in theory, she could fund a re-election run with the leftovers (if any) from her presidential run.  Can someone with more knowledge of campaign financing verify this?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1471 on: July 22, 2019, 04:57:49 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 20, 2019, 03:54:42 PM
Quote from: Nyvin on July 19, 2019, 02:12:36 PM
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on July 19, 2019, 10:46:43 AM
Gabbard raised -$20 in Q2... that’s not a typo



Yeah, she's probably retiring from the House,  good riddance.

I believe that when a candidate drops out of the presidential race, they can transfer any remaining funds from that campaign to another one.  So in theory, she could fund a re-election run with the leftovers (if any) from her presidential run.  Can someone with more knowledge of campaign financing verify this?

That is what the article linked in the tweet says, yes.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #1472 on: July 22, 2019, 08:13:43 AM »

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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #1473 on: July 22, 2019, 08:20:00 AM »
Big recruitment news across the board today...
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1474 on: July 22, 2019, 09:36:30 AM »
Quote from: Wesley Troopner on July 22, 2019, 08:20:00 AM
Big recruitment news across the board today...



Carpetbagger, will lose.
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