2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Landslide Lyndon]

These internals are probably part of a plan to persuade Republican donors that retaking the House isn't that far-fetched a proposal.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Republicans haven’t gained a House seat in California since 1998. They are welcome to burn money trying to turn back time though

[Mr.Phips]

These internals are probably part of a plan to persuade Republican donors that retaking the House isn't that far-fetched a proposal.

Bingo.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

These internals are probably part of a plan to persuade Republican donors that retaking the House isn't that far-fetched a proposal.

Bingo.

Indeed.

[We Live in Black and White]

Leave it to the walking cluelessness that is SirWoodbury to take deliberately absurd Republican internals as solid gold.

[Gass3268]

Some Republican numbers from Texas:

TX-06: Wright $72,345
TX-08: Brady $650,257
TX-10: McCaul $646,095
TX-22: Olson $377,529

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Some Republican numbers from Texas:

TX-06: Wright $72,345
TX-08: Brady $650,257
TX-10: McCaul $646,095
TX-22: Olson $377,529

McCaul seems to be wiser than many people on Atlas in sensing that Dems could take his seat

[lfromnj]

Waiting for Marchants numbers.

[wesmoorenerd]

Some Republican numbers from Texas:

TX-06: Wright $72,345
TX-08: Brady $650,257
TX-10: McCaul $646,095
TX-22: Olson $377,529

Brady is quite safe, unfortunately.

[Gracile]

Some Republican numbers from Texas:

TX-06: Wright $72,345
TX-08: Brady $650,257
TX-10: McCaul $646,095
TX-22: Olson $377,529

It looks like Olson got outraised by Kulkarni who brought in $420,000 in Q2.

Also, it's baffling that TX-22 isn't getting more attention. I would argue that this seat is one of the more likelier TX pickups based purely on its rapidly changing demographics. Kulkarni has also made reaching out to the district's diverse ethnic communities and registering new voters as a big part of his strategy this time around. It could pay off in the end.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Some Republican numbers from Texas:

TX-06: Wright $72,345
TX-08: Brady $650,257
TX-10: McCaul $646,095
TX-22: Olson $377,529

It looks like Olson got outraised by Kulkarni who brought in $420,000 in Q2.

Also, it's baffling that TX-22 isn't getting more attention. I would argue that this seat is one of the more likelier TX pickups based purely on its rapidly changing demographics. Kulkarni has also made reaching out to the district's diverse ethnic communities and registering new voters as a big part of his strategy this time around. It could pay off in the end.

Plus, Olson is a pretty weak campaigner.

[wbrocks67]

And another one -

IA-03: NRCC internal shows Cindy Axne trailing a "named Republican" (probably David Young) by 6 points

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1149698563925893121

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/680079/nrcc-poll-axne-trails-gop-opponent-by-6

NJ-07: Malinowski (D) 52% - Lance (R) 47%
GA-06: McBath (D) 50.5% - Handel (R) 49.5%
IA-03: Axne (D) 49% - Young (R) 47%

All of them theoretically could be losing, but Axne going from +2 to -6 seems ridiculous, while Malinowski won by 5, so he should be in a decent position.

Especially considering so far, the 2020 generic ballot is showing VERY similar trends to how it looked this time before the 2018 midterms.

[Gass3268]

AL-SEN: Doug Jones (D) - $2,006,226

IA-01: Ashley Hinson Arenholz (R) - $337,553
IA-03: David Young (R) - $359,700
NY-01: Perry Gershon (D) - $406,751
TX-23: Gina Ortiz Jones (D) - $587,527

[GeorgiaModerate]

GA-06: Rep. Lucy McBath raised $670K last quarter and has $930K on hand.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1150766357870534656

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1150803737327407105

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1150808024300306437

Five potential thoughts on this one since it is such out of left field. DePasquale is one of the best dem house recruits this cycle, and just ignoring fundraising is not a good thing to do as an incumbent. :

1) It could be because Perry is only now taking the steps for fundraising and ignored it the first quarter
2) It could be that Perry wants to retire. He fits the profile of the type of guy who doesn't like being in the minority.
3) It could be that Perry is bad at this sort of thing, only ever repping a safe seat as a freedom caucus member until the redistricting.
4) It could be that Perry just lacks the grassroots that normally candidates have in their district. A good chunk of Republican votes in PA10 come from Amish who won't be sending in cash online.
5) Perry assumes that the loose redistricting 2020 deal that is in the works is permanent.  This is a rumor I have heard from PA insiders, but because PA is virtually guaranteed to have divided govt, the Republicans wish to avoid the state supreme court one again and cut a deal with the dems. One part of this rough plan is that PA10 is the axed seat. So Perry has no incentive to campaign as hard as one would. The problem is, Democrats are understood to have the upper hand in these negotiations and if DePasquale wins then dems are going to demand a different seat gets cut, likely PA09. Plus the shear number of competitive seats congressionally means that anything agreed to now is just a rough plan, this can and no doubt will change.

[lfromnj]

Cornyn raised 2.5 million and abbot raised an incredible 14 million.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1150826343963213830

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1150826343963213830

This was supposed to be their top-tier recruit? LOL.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1150826343963213830

Embarrassing. I wonder if these numbers will spur Jeanne Ives or another more conservative Republican to jump in.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1150826343963213830

Embarrassing. I wonder if these numbers will spur Jeanne Ives or another more conservative Republican to jump in.

Sanguinetti is a more conservative Republican. She was actually much more right wing than Rauner.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1150826343963213830

Embarrassing. I wonder if these numbers will spur Jeanne Ives or another more conservative Republican to jump in.

Sanguinetti is a more conservative Republican. She was actually much more right wing than Rauner.

I meant someone more in the Trumpist mold. Sanguinetti is a different kind of conservative.

[Oryxslayer]

Numbers coming in hot and fast now:

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1150844245953171456

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1150843808197693440

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1150837622056468480

[JG]

I know next to nothing about fundraising, but isn't Golden's number on the weaker side? Or isn't it not that bad considering I assume the media market in ME-2 must be pretty cheap?

[lfromnj]

I know next to nothing about fundraising, but isn't Golden's number on the weaker side? Or isn't it not that bad considering I assume the media market in ME-2 must be pretty cheap?

The latter.