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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 167693 times)
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« on: October 28, 2018, 08:25:13 AM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on October 28, 2018, 08:23:50 AM
Enthusiasm gap in Ohio:


SN2903 told me Republicans were matching Democrats in turnout, though.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2018, 10:56:48 AM »
Let's hope the Brat gets spanked.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2018, 07:44:13 PM »
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on October 29, 2018, 07:43:18 PM
Democrat Susan Wild continues to hold double-digit lead in race to replace Republican Charlie Dent in PA-07:

Wild (D): 49%
Northstein (R): 38%
Silfies (L): 2%

http://www.wfmz.com/news/lehigh-valley/democrats-still-ahead-in-final-poll/832607237
Only Sean Trende could look at this and see a pure tossup.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2018, 03:59:14 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 31, 2018, 03:35:14 PM
PA-16 (Susquehanna):

Ron DiNicola (D) 51%
Mike Kelly (R) 47%

Source

The sample +4 Republican by registration (+5 Republican ID).
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Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2018, 04:26:26 PM »
Quote from: Mayor Steve Pearce on October 31, 2018, 04:18:36 PM


A bit of a shock poll.
Don't let an O-MT avatar see this. Smiley
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Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2018, 03:54:40 PM »
This thread is such a joke.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2018, 03:08:08 PM »
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on November 05, 2018, 01:06:52 PM
Slew of new polls. Most noteworthy is Weak Gun Control Candidate McBath up 6-


Looks like GA-6 and MI-8 are flipping, and the other 4 are tossups.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #7 on: December 08, 2018, 09:53:55 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on December 08, 2018, 09:38:34 AM
Harry Enten reports that the least accurate 2018 GCB pollster was, to no one's surprise, Rasmussen:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
But muh "most accurate poll of 2016"!
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Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2019, 01:25:26 PM »
Quote from: Senator Zaybay on January 17, 2019, 12:45:42 PM
Quote from: 지금도 충분히 피곤해 on January 17, 2019, 11:28:26 AM


Looks like Gallego has the establishment’s backing. Probably cakewalk primary if he declares.

Good to hear, hes the best candidate we have for that seat.
But Atlas told me Gallego was too left-wing for Arizona and that ex-Republican and abuse mocker Grant Woods was the only candidate who could possibly even stand a chance against unbeatable titan Martha McSally!!!
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Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #9 on: January 27, 2019, 08:55:24 AM »
Quote from: Pope Michael Bolton on January 27, 2019, 08:52:41 AM
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on January 26, 2019, 11:27:27 PM
Marie Newman has filed for a rematch with Lipiniski-



Go Newman!
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2019, 05:47:57 PM »
Below is the list of GOP targets:

AZ-01 – Tom O’Halleran
AZ-02 – Ann Kirkpatrick
CA-10 – Josh Harder
CA-21 – TJ Cox
CA-25 – Katie Hill
CA-39 – Gil Cisneros
CA-45 – Katie Porter
CA-48 – Harley Rouda
CA-49 – Mike Levin
CO-06 – Jason Crow
FL-07 – Stephanie Murphy
FL-13 – Charlie Crist
FL-26 – Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
FL-27 — Donna E. Shalala
GA-06 – Lucy McBath
IA-01 – Abby Finkenauer
IA-02 – Dave Loebsack
IA-03 – Cindy Axne
IL-06 – Sean Casten
IL-14 – Lauren Underwood
IL-17 – Cheri Bustos
KS-03 – Sharice Davids
ME-02 – Jared Golden
MI-08 – Elissa Slotkin
MI-11 – Haley Stevens
MN-02 – Angie Craig
MN-03 – Dean Phillips
MN-07 — Colin Peterson
NH-01 – Chris Pappas
NJ-02 – Jeff Van Drew
NJ-03 – Andy Kim
NJ-05 – Josh Gottheimer
NJ-07 – Tom Malinowski
NJ-11 – Mikie Sherrill
NV-03 – Susie Lee
NV-04 – Steven Horsford
NY-11 – Max Rose
NY-18 – Sean Patrick Maloney
NY-19 – Antonio Delgado
NY-22 – Anthony Brindisi
NM-02 – Xochitl Torres Small
OK-05 – Kendra Horn
OR-04 – Peter DeFazio
PA-07 – Susan Wild
PA-08 – Matt Cartwright
PA-17 – Conor Lamb
SC-01 – Joe Cunningham
TX-07 – Lizzie Fletcher
TX-32 – Colin Allred
UT-04 – Ben McAdams
VA-02 – Elaine Luria
VA-07 – Abigail Spanberger
VA-10 – Jennifer Wexton
WA-08 – Kim Schrier
WI-03 – Ron Kind
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Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2019, 06:04:37 PM »
Quote from: OneJ on February 07, 2019, 06:02:33 PM

I would argue that FL-27 fits in your bolded list.
Oh, you could argue for AZ-02, CA-21, CA-45, FL-26, FL-27, IL-06, IL-17, KS-03, NJ-07, NJ-11, NY-18, PA-17, TX-07, TX-32, WA-08 and WI-03 as well.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #12 on: February 09, 2019, 03:27:47 PM »
RRH out with 2020 Senate ratings:

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/02/09/rrh-elections-february-2019-senate-rankings/
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Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #13 on: March 27, 2019, 08:28:17 AM »
Quote from: All States will be D on March 27, 2019, 08:26:36 AM


The Texas GOP would have to be extremely stupid to not make a 3rd D sink district in Texas. You don't fool around and try to crack areas which have moved almost 30 points left in 6 years.
Even the strongest R gerrymander possible (which cracks TX-7) keeps TX-32 blue.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #14 on: April 02, 2019, 06:38:43 AM »
This district will be highly competitive but Fletcher has an advantage.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #15 on: April 08, 2019, 08:53:33 AM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on April 08, 2019, 07:58:18 AM
Tsunami insurance


Best candidate we could realistically get, Lean R for now.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #16 on: April 08, 2019, 10:11:44 AM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on April 08, 2019, 10:08:09 AM
How do Horn, McAdams, and Cunningham win again?  They're among my favorites of the new class so far.

Hope 2020 is a Democratic tsunami, because they're going to lose otherwise.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #17 on: April 08, 2019, 01:38:28 PM »
Quote from: 2016 on April 08, 2019, 12:01:53 PM
New Jersey Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. will announce next week that he will run against Freshman Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ 7)
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/kean-will-run-for-congress-against-malinowski/

HUUUGE get for House Republicans. A+ Candidate.
Inb4 Atlas declares this Safe D because 2016 trends
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #18 on: April 09, 2019, 05:10:33 PM »
Quote from: TX more competitive than OH on April 09, 2019, 04:42:23 PM
Quote from: TX less competitive than OH on April 08, 2019, 01:38:28 PM
Quote from: 2016 on April 08, 2019, 12:01:53 PM
New Jersey Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. will announce next week that he will run against Freshman Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ 7)
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/kean-will-run-for-congress-against-malinowski/

HUUUGE get for House Republicans. A+ Candidate.
Inb4 Atlas declares this Safe D because 2016 trends

It's Lean/Likely D. Who are going to be these PresiDem voters voting against Malinowski? I just gotta know. Also, I see you've moved on from your IceSpear and OntarioProgressive obsession and are now obsessed with me.
I'm glad you realize that a Romney-Clinton district with an excellent GOP candidate that Guadagno and Hugin carried isn't Safe D.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #19 on: April 09, 2019, 06:51:54 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on April 09, 2019, 06:14:55 PM
Quote from: Politician on April 09, 2019, 05:10:33 PM
Quote from: TX more competitive than OH on April 09, 2019, 04:42:23 PM
Quote from: TX less competitive than OH on April 08, 2019, 01:38:28 PM
Quote from: 2016 on April 08, 2019, 12:01:53 PM
New Jersey Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. will announce next week that he will run against Freshman Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ 7)
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/kean-will-run-for-congress-against-malinowski/

HUUUGE get for House Republicans. A+ Candidate.
Inb4 Atlas declares this Safe D because 2016 trends

It's Lean/Likely D. Who are going to be these PresiDem voters voting against Malinowski? I just gotta know. Also, I see you've moved on from your IceSpear and OntarioProgressive obsession and are now obsessed with me.
I'm glad you realize that a Romney-Clinton district with an excellent GOP candidate that Guadagno and Hugin carried isn't Safe D.

GUADAGNO carried that district? Yeah, I think that makes NJ-7 a tossup.
Yeah, and by nearly 7 points.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #20 on: April 10, 2019, 03:46:33 PM »
Apparently national R's are trying to recruit ALLEN WEST to run against Allred in TX-32:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/elections-2020/2019/04/10/dallas-rep-colin-allred-raises-530k-2020-re-election-bid-could-gop-target-face

Several names have emerged as potential contenders against Allred. National Republicans have expressed interest in former Florida congressman Allen West, who now lives in North Texas, as well as former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne, a Trump appointee in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. She's been mentioned as a possible successor to Rep. Kenny Marchant of Coppell.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #21 on: April 24, 2019, 09:35:12 AM »
Quote from: Jeppe on April 24, 2019, 09:10:00 AM

Kendra Horn right now:
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Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #22 on: April 29, 2019, 03:39:21 PM »
If she gets nominated, this race moves from Lean R to Tilt D.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #23 on: April 30, 2019, 02:12:28 PM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on April 30, 2019, 02:10:06 PM


Could be nothing, either way, likely R.
I doubt Feehan wins in 2020 if he couldn't win an open seat in 2018. Still, might as well spend some money here.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #24 on: May 20, 2019, 02:14:54 PM »
Quote from: X-Filed Away on May 20, 2019, 02:13:11 PM
Quote from: Councilor Suburban New Jersey Conservative on May 20, 2019, 01:40:47 PM
Quote from: Elliot County Populist on May 20, 2019, 01:37:50 PM
Golden running for reelection. This is like the 6th most 2016 Republican district and like the 3rd most Trumpy district that a Democrat currently holds.

He doesn't get the message that he'll be a one-termer, GOP should hold ME SEN, given that Gideon probably can't beat Collins, also I will be eating popcorn watching Golden's quixotic reelection bid, go down in flames.

You really think 2020 is going to be a Republican year, don’t you?
Well, he also thinks Stevens and Rouda will lose, and Casten will only win by the skin of his teeth, so yeah...
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