2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 167666 times)
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« on: October 25, 2018, 11:05:29 PM »
« edited: December 12, 2018, 04:51:20 PM by Virginiá »
Note: This thread served as the last of 4 generic ballot megathreads leading up to 2018. It is now the megathread for 2020 generic ballot polls

Note: Until Jan-Feb 2020, this will serve as a combined megathread for generic ballot polls, candidate recruitment news, ratings and fundraising reports (eg, for the DCCC/NRCC)



---------------


NJ-05 (McLAUGHlin):
Josh Gottheimer (D-inc) 47
John McCann (R) 38

https://newjerseyglobe.com/fl/mccann-poll-has-gottheimer-ahead-by-9-points/

Safe D. I expect Gottheimer to win by at least 19 now.


------------------------

Old thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=302399.0
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2018, 12:10:25 PM »
Quote from: American2020 on October 28, 2018, 03:34:21 AM


And this is a poll with Trump +9 approval LOL
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2018, 07:45:12 AM »

I wish.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2018, 11:04:50 PM »
Oh dear God, Change Research is flooding is with a dozen junk polls.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2018, 06:23:56 AM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on October 30, 2018, 06:18:46 AM




Looks like we’ll get Rep. Delgado. Smiley
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2018, 07:16:09 AM »
Quote from: Mr. Illini on October 30, 2018, 06:58:15 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 29, 2018, 11:02:46 PM
CO-03: Tipton (R) 53 | Mitsch (D) 38
FL-18: Mast (R) 53 | Baer (D) 44 (Gillum and Nelson are running ahead of Baer)
IA-04: King (R) 45 | Scholten (D) 44 (King favorables at -10, Trump at +5)
IL-16: Kinzinger (R) 55 | Dady 41 (They have Pritzker beating Ruaner here, lol)
IN-05: Brooks (R) 50 | Thornton 44 (Donnelly up 5 here, Trump approval -1)
IN-09: Hollingsworth (R) 52 | Watson 45 (Donelly down 9 here, Trump approval +10)
KS-02: Watkins (R) 45 | Davis (D) 44 (Gov is tied)
MI-01: Bergman (R) 54 | Morgan 42 (Whitmer trails by just 3 points)
MI-06: Upton (R) 46 | Longjohn 43 (Longjohn is running several points ahead of Stabenow in the district, but several points behind Whitmer)
NY-01: Zeldin (R) 52 | Gershon (D) 37
OH-02: Wenstrup (R) 52 | Schiller (D) 39 (Brown and Cordray tied with their R opponents here)
WI-06: Grothman (R) 50 | Kohl 48 (Sen and Gov races within two here)

I want it to be real. Any idea how good Change actually is? 538 doesn't even rate them, which doesn't bode well...

Change Research has botched every race they’ve ever polled, so I would ignore their online-only junk.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2018, 08:17:17 AM »

Looks like Campa-Najjar is a “security threat” to Hunter’s job security. Wink
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2018, 05:43:37 PM »
Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2018, 06:56:46 PM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on October 30, 2018, 06:49:50 PM
Wow, I think this one could be a unexpectedly closer (but not close) race. Obviously safe D, but I think Cavasso could breach 40%, I have been following him and his campaign and this one interview was particularly good, he is really a solid recruit for the GOP, just the wrong year, in a slightly too blue district.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2018/10/11/coffee-with-candidate-republican-candidate-congress-cam-cavasso/

This post is peak Atlas. Just having a good interview that the vast majority of the district won't even see doesn't mean you'll break 40%.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2018, 10:00:29 AM »
Quote from: Pope Michael Bolton on October 31, 2018, 06:36:07 AM
Quote from: Fremont Speaker ON Progressive on October 30, 2018, 07:16:09 AM
Quote from: Mr. Illini on October 30, 2018, 06:58:15 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 29, 2018, 11:02:46 PM
CO-03: Tipton (R) 53 | Mitsch (D) 38
FL-18: Mast (R) 53 | Baer (D) 44 (Gillum and Nelson are running ahead of Baer)
IA-04: King (R) 45 | Scholten (D) 44 (King favorables at -10, Trump at +5)
IL-16: Kinzinger (R) 55 | Dady 41 (They have Pritzker beating Ruaner here, lol)
IN-05: Brooks (R) 50 | Thornton 44 (Donnelly up 5 here, Trump approval -1)
IN-09: Hollingsworth (R) 52 | Watson 45 (Donelly down 9 here, Trump approval +10)
KS-02: Watkins (R) 45 | Davis (D) 44 (Gov is tied)
MI-01: Bergman (R) 54 | Morgan 42 (Whitmer trails by just 3 points)
MI-06: Upton (R) 46 | Longjohn 43 (Longjohn is running several points ahead of Stabenow in the district, but several points behind Whitmer)
NY-01: Zeldin (R) 52 | Gershon (D) 37
OH-02: Wenstrup (R) 52 | Schiller (D) 39 (Brown and Cordray tied with their R opponents here)
WI-06: Grothman (R) 50 | Kohl 48 (Sen and Gov races within two here)

I want it to be real. Any idea how good Change actually is? 538 doesn't even rate them, which doesn't bode well...

Change Research has botched every race they’ve ever polled, so I would ignore their online-only junk.

To be fair, they were the only ones who had Gillum winning the FL primary IIRC.

Even in that one, they missed by seven. They are an awful pollster, that simple.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2018, 04:05:25 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 31, 2018, 03:35:14 PM
PA-16 (Susquehanna):

Ron DiNicola (D) 51%
Mike Kelly (R) 47%

Source

The sample +4 Republican by registration (+5 Republican ID).

If this and the PA-11 number is true, the PA GOP is going to get absolutely smashed at a level I've never seen a state party in a purple state get slaughtered.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2018, 09:59:20 AM »
North Carolina (Meredith):
Democrats 49
Republicans 38
Others 3

State legislature generic ballot is similar:
Democrats 48
Republicans 38
Others 3

https://www.meredith.edu/assets/images/content/Meredith_College_Final_Poll_Report_October_2018.pdf#page15
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2018, 08:15:21 PM »
Quote from: #TheShadowyAbyss on November 01, 2018, 08:12:12 PM
Tim Canova (I) - 34%
Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D) - 34%
Joe Kaufman (R) - 13%

According to "this"

Here's the joke of the day



Did they only poll Tim Canova's family?
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2018, 01:14:01 PM »
Quote from: Calthrina950 on November 03, 2018, 11:51:13 AM

More like Lean Republican. Tipton is favored, but he does not possess a secure lead. If things really go well for Democrats, Mitsch Bush could win.

I'd agree, although I think tossup isn't totally unreasonable given the incumbent's at 46%.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2018, 10:15:11 PM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on November 03, 2018, 09:59:04 PM
Quote from: hofoid on November 03, 2018, 09:58:45 PM
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on November 03, 2018, 09:57:12 PM


Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?
Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

I rarely agree with hofoid and Bagel, but they're right here. This is the same expectations lowering we saw in a bunch of the special elections this cycle so that they could spin just in case they lost.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2018, 11:31:20 AM »
Quote from: Republicans for Nelson on November 04, 2018, 11:28:34 AM
If y’all are freaking out over one percentage point hanged in the GCB, I can’t imagine the whiplash you’ll show on Election Night. Fortunately I won’t be on Atlas at all that day. You can only take so many hottakes

Seriously. I know Atlas loves to overreact to things, but this is absolutely ridiculous.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2018, 08:34:27 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2018, 08:47:37 PM by Virginiá »
Quote from: Republicans for Nelson on November 04, 2018, 08:32:42 PM

Watch it be someone like Bagel or NewYorkExpress or something ridiculous

Imagine if Nate Silver was olawakandi.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2018, 09:42:18 AM »

I don't think gifs show up as images on the Atlas board.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2018, 01:08:54 PM »
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on November 05, 2018, 01:06:52 PM
Slew of new polls. Most noteworthy is Weak Gun Control Candidate McBath up 6-



Unfortunately, these are Change Research polls.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #19 on: January 31, 2019, 01:50:50 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on January 31, 2019, 12:36:34 PM
Quote from: #KavanaughForPrison on January 29, 2019, 12:05:35 AM
Quote from: Pollster on January 28, 2019, 02:51:37 PM
Nicole Malliotakis is challenging Max Rose

She won Staten Island with over 70% in 2017, though that was more a rebuke of de Blasio. Rose will be much tougher to dislodge though she is a strong candidate.

yikes

this might move the race to Likely R. Joining OK-05 and UT-04 in the near certain Democratic losses for 2020.

Why are OK-05 and UT-04 already considered Dem losses?

Solid had UT-04 at Safe R in 2018, even after the Siena poll showing a tied race came out. It's best to ignore his trash ratings.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #20 on: February 07, 2019, 09:34:09 PM »
Quote from: Politician on February 07, 2019, 06:04:37 PM
Quote from: OneJ on February 07, 2019, 06:02:33 PM

I would argue that FL-27 fits in your bolded list.
Oh, you could argue for AZ-02, CA-21, CA-45, FL-26, FL-27, IL-06, IL-17, KS-03, NJ-07, NJ-11, NY-18, PA-17, TX-07, TX-32, WA-08 and WI-03 as well.

GA-06, CA-10, NV-03, and NV-04 also belong as well.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #21 on: July 01, 2019, 09:50:33 AM »
Quote from: Muh trends on July 01, 2019, 08:16:47 AM
NRCC internal: Malinowski TRAILS generic R, 44-42.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/nrcc-poll-malinowski-in-close-re-election-race-remains-largely-unknown/

But Atlas told me this district was Safe D because of muh sububran trends and muh "swung towards Menendez"!

Imagine believing that an NRCC internal is worth any value.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #22 on: July 15, 2019, 01:47:37 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on July 15, 2019, 01:20:52 PM


This was supposed to be their top-tier recruit? LOL.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #23 on: July 22, 2019, 08:13:43 AM »

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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70
« Reply #24 on: September 05, 2019, 09:08:00 AM »

Are they even trying to make these remotely believable anymore?
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