2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Apologies if this has already been posted:

MT-AL: U of Montana, Oct. 10-18, 607 RV

Williams (D) 45.8
Gianforte (R, inc) 45.3
Swanson (L) 1.8

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1055885713554710529

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1056025828553830401

[GeorgiaModerate]

NY-24: Siena, Oct. 18-22, 500 LV

Katko (R,inc): 53
Balter (D): 39

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yougov dropped: FL-tied, AZ: Sinema 3+, IN: Braun 3+ https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/tight-contests-mark-critical-senate-races-cbs-news-battleground-tracker-poll/?__twitter_impression=true

All of these numbers seem to be slightly to the right of where other public polls have had these races.

538 has YouGov with a house effect of R+2.4.  So the adjusted values they're using are Braun+0.6, Nelson+2.4, and Sinema+5.4, which seem closer to CW.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Strategic Research Associates has put out some strange results.  This recent article describes them as a market research company in Spokane, with these details:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Huh, why did Republicans gain 0.1 in the 538 GCB tracker without any new poll being added?

I'd guess decreased weight of older polls as time progresses?

Could be, or maybe they've corrected a previously erroneous entry.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1056698446139285505

Dems gained 1 point from last week.

Different poll this is -2 for dems

Last week it was D+8.

There was another Harris Poll. That's confusing.

There are different Harris polls and different Rasmussen polls.  It's hard to keep them all straight.

[GeorgiaModerate]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20181029-story.html

USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll: GCB D+17 (57-40)

Wow, thats +4 from last week! Definite outlier, but one I like!

It certainly could be an outlier, but it has seemed like in the last week or two there's been a gradual shift of momentum toward the Democrats, as shown by fundraising, party advertising choices, rating changes, etc.  This was already starting before the events of last week, so I think it may just be a late break to the out party, as seen in some previous elections (not all of them, of course).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Poll, Oct. 3-17, 2003 young voters (18-29)

Total:

Trump Approve 26
Disapprove 68

GCB: D 55, R 37

Registered to vote?  Yes 71, No 23

Likelihood to vote:
   Definitely 40   (Among Democrats 54, among Republicans 43)
   Probably 15
   50-50 16
   Probably not 13
   Definitely not 12



Likely Voters (I think this is the "Definitely vote" group):

Trump Approve 25
Disapprove 72

GCB: D 66, R 32

Registered to vote?  Yes 96, No 2

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson dropped a bunch of polls, apologies if any of these are repeats.

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-democrats-favored-pick-governorships-mi-nm-hold-us-senate-seat-nj

NJ-SEN: Menendez (D) 47, Hugin (R) 42
MI-SEN: Stabenow (D) 52, James (R) 43
MI-GOV: Whitmer (D) 52, Schuette (R) 41
NM-SEN: Heinrich (D) 48, Rich R (32), Johnson (L) 16
NM-GOV: Lujan Grisham (D) 53, Pearce (R) 44
NM-01: Haaland (D) 51, Arnold-Jones (R) 41
NM-02: Torres Small (D) 47, Herrell (R) 47
NM-03: Lujan (D) 54, McFall (R) 37

[GeorgiaModerate]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

Yeah, I don't see Dems getting 18% of the popular vote.  If that's the case, not only do Dems hold all their 2012 seats, but they also pick up AZ, NV, TN, TX, and MS-Special.

I'd like to see a few more polls to corroborate this.

Well, the LA Times poll this morning was D+17.  But yeah, this large a jump needs more corroboration.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

Yeah, I don't see Dems getting 18% of the popular vote.  If that's the case, not only do Dems hold all their 2012 seats, but they also pick up AZ, NV, TN, TX, and MS-Special.

I'd like to see a few more polls to corroborate this.

Well, the LA Times poll this morning was D+17.  But yeah, this large a jump needs more corroboration.

It's much more likely that Republicans actually win the house popular vote than for the democrats to win it by such an absurdly high number.

Both are unlikely, but I strongly suspect the final margin will be closer to D+17 than to R+.00001.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

Are you sure that isn't for women vs men voting Dem? Here's what I see on their website:

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https://www.prri.org/research/partisan-polarization-dominates-trump-era-findings-from-the-2018-american-values-survey/

I'm going by the topline PDF, which says:

Q.8 Now,   suppose   the   2018   congressional   election   was   being   held   TODAY.   If   you   had   to   
choose   between [ROTATE   OPTIONS]   in   your   election   district,   who   would   you   vote   
for?
Oct.   
2018
Sept.   
2018
June   
2018
Mar.   
2018
Oct.   
2017
39 35 41 36 35 The   Republican   candidate
57 44 53 42 43 The   Democratic   candidate
- 6 - 5 6 Other/Third   Party   candidate   
(VOL.)
- - - 3 - Not   going   to   vote   (VOL.)
4 15 6 14 16 Don’t   know/Refused   (VOL.)
100 100 100 100 100 Total

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm going by the topline PDF, which says...

Hmm, yeah, I see it now. Not sure what's happening with the write-up, then.

I see a possibility: the overall survey is of adults, and that's all the topline PDF seems to report.  But the 48/39 number appears to be among the RV subset (which isn't in the PDF):

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[GeorgiaModerate]

What is up with Rasmussen Polls?  They seem to be wildly Off compared to other polls.  I know they are a Republican outfit, but do they just tend to poll pro-republican models or what?

It's been suggested that their likely voter screen is overly favorable to Republicans, especially in a national environment like this one. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

NY-27: Tulchin Research (McMurray internal), Oct. 25-28, 400 LV (change from early Oct.)

McMurray (D) 47 (+5)
Collins (R, inc) 43 (+1)
Piegza (Reform) 4 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

NY-27: Tulchin Research (McMurray internal), Oct. 25-28, 400 LV (change from early Oct.)

McMurray (D) 47 (+5)
Collins (R, inc) 43 (+1)
Piegza (Reform) 4 (-2)

Read that as Pizza (Reform)

Pizza reform is an issue we could all get behind!

[GeorgiaModerate]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20181029-story.html

USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll: GCB D+17 (57-40)

Isn't this the poll that had Trump up for all of 2016? I think it's possible that it's just not a good pollster.

They do use a different methodology: a pool of respondents which gets polled at recurring intervals.  For this year:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

We should get the regular online trackers (YouGov, Morning Consult, and Ipsos) over the next few days, but they're not exactly high-quality pollsters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 has now added both versions of the PRRI poll to the database (57-39 all adults, 48-39 RV).

[GeorgiaModerate]

CO-03: Tipton (R) 53 | Mitsch (D) 38
FL-18: Mast (R) 53 | Baer (D) 44 (Gillum and Nelson are running ahead of Baer)
IA-04: King (R) 45 | Scholten (D) 44 (King favorables at -10, Trump at +5)
IL-16: Kinzinger (R) 55 | Dady 41 (They have Pritzker beating Ruaner here, lol)
IN-05: Brooks (R) 50 | Thornton 44 (Donnelly up 5 here, Trump approval -1)
IN-09: Hollingsworth (R) 52 | Watson 45 (Donelly down 9 here, Trump approval +10)
KS-02: Watkins (R) 45 | Davis (D) 44 (Gov is tied)
MI-01: Bergman (R) 54 | Morgan 42 (Whitmer trails by just 3 points)
MI-06: Upton (R) 46 | Longjohn 43 (Longjohn is running several points ahead of Stabenow in the district, but several points behind Whitmer)
NY-01: Zeldin (R) 52 | Gershon (D) 37
OH-02: Wenstrup (R) 52 | Schiller (D) 39 (Brown and Cordray tied with their R opponents here)
WI-06: Grothman (R) 50 | Kohl 48 (Sen and Gov races within two here)

I want it to be real. Any idea how good Change actually is? 538 doesn't even rate them, which doesn't bode well...

You have to click the "Show More Pollsters" button at the bottom of the page to see the ones with fewer polls in their ratings.  As Gass pointed out, they have a C+ rating with an R+0.8 bias.  IMO even that's a bit generous; they've been all over the place in the past.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_October_27_2018.pdf

MT-AL Gravis: Williams (D-inc) 48, Gianforte (R-inc) 48

Tester+3 in that poll, and Trump with 58/39 approval, so this looks pretty plausible.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

LAWD. It would be like Christmas day if both PA-10 and PA-11 were Dem pickups.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Pittsburgh tragedy is going to uniquely impact Pennsylvania in a surprising way. Especially since the bottom has already fallen out of both republican statewide campaigns.

That makes a whole lot of sense.