2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Gustaf]

Huh, why did Republicans gain 0.1 in the 538 GCB tracker without any new poll being added?

I'd guess decreased weight of older polls as time progresses?

[Gustaf]

And also Democrats dominated the Congressional vote due to residual Southern strength.

[Gustaf]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1111808371932327936

Hiral Tipirneni, of AZ-08 special election fame, is running for AZ-06. My queen is alive!

She lost the special by 5, the general by 10 and the 6th is 10 Points less Trump-friendly than the 8th by 2016 results. So with standard caveats applied, she might be competitive.

[Gustaf]

Comeback Claudia?

If she gets nominated, this race moves from Lean R to Tilt D.

I wouldn't be so sure. Tenney is an underperformer, but even she would benefit from what is likely to be a more favorable environment in this particular district in 2020. Her loss in 2018 wasn't even that bad, all things considered, especially since she ran against a popular state legislator who was considered a "good fit" for NY-22.

I generally agree. But this "popular state legislator" is an incumbent Congressman now, and that's, most likely, a plus...

Maybe, but the fundamentals of this district are awful for Democrats. I think Brindisi would have a tough time in a neutral environment. Not only was NY-22 the most Republican district that Democrats flipped last fall in terms of Trump's margin of victory, but it was also the second most Republican-trending seat that flipped based on 2016 trendlines (only IA-01 trended more Republican). At least places like OK-05 and SC-01 have a democratic trend working in their incumbent's favor. The low-propensity voters in this seat who didn't show up for the midterm are likely conservatives who will show up with Trump on the ballot, which will be a detriment to Brindisi.

I don't think it's clear that we can talk about trend in some of the Trump districts - as I recall, the data suggests some areas that were competitive pre-Trump swung back pretty heavily. The flip itself would suggest that to some extent.

[Gustaf]

Gabbard raised -$20 in Q2... that’s not a typo

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1152210947534131200?s=21

Yeah, she's probably retiring from the House,  good riddance.

I believe that when a candidate drops out of the presidential race, they can transfer any remaining funds from that campaign to another one.  So in theory, she could fund a re-election run with the leftovers (if any) from her presidential run.  Can someone with more knowledge of campaign financing verify this?

That is what the article linked in the tweet says, yes.

[Gustaf]

Isn't the actual Republican position on abortion just to deny it to poor people and retain it for themselves?

[Gustaf]

Wait, so this district had a PVI of R+21 in 2018 and van Drew won it by 8? That sounds pretty good to me and not as if it was his fault he didn't win it bigger.