2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Hmm, closer than I would have expected, I get that it's an internal, but even a Walden win by low tweens to teens is really underwhelming.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1055926665522696195

Didn't the RNCC jump into this race last week? That suggests this internal might not be too far off the market.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

David Lauter from the LA Times, is saying on twitter that the bump coincides with the bomb scare and the Pittsburgh shooting. I would like to see two or three GCB polls from other outlets first before I agree or disagree.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

UT-04

https://kutv.com/news/local/exclusive-poll-4th-congressional-district-race-between-love-mcadams-widens-by-6-points

McAdams (D): 49.51%
Love (R): 43.05%

Not only decimals, but 2 decimal places!

It has McAdams winning independents by 80 points, lol. Not a typo. It also has Romney +15 in the district which seems...off.

I think McAdams edges it out in the end, but Romney winning the district by that much while Love is losing isn't impossible. Remember that Love lost the race in 2012 even when Romney won the district by 35 points.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

McAdams is polling 23% with Republicans.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrat Susan Wild continues to hold double-digit lead in race to replace Republican Charlie Dent in PA-07:

Wild (D): 49%
Northstein (R): 38%
Silfies (L): 2%

http://www.wfmz.com/news/lehigh-valley/democrats-still-ahead-in-final-poll/832607237

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Did Candace Owens just create an Atlas account? ^^

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Considering how little polling we've gotten out of Indiana, IN-05 +5 Donnelly  and IN-09 -9 Donnelly is not what I was expecting.

Bodes very well for him.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Emerson KS-03-

Davids (D): 55% (+12)
Yoder (R-inc.): 43%

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1057286661720043520

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

Wow.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

It seems more and more red districts are not looking completely safe for Republicans. I would guess at least a few more could slip through the cracks. Either way, it's looking like Republicans pretty much need to pull a royal flush to keep the House.

I just think the bottom is falling out. First the package bombs, then the shooting, now the birthplace citizenship debate. The momentum is clearly with the Democrats in the closing days.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Maybe it just wishful thinking, but this election feels like a larger scale of what happened here in VA last November.

tbf, if that is the case, this result would be unthinkable. Virginia 2017's results basically amounted to a cleansing of Republicans in Clinton districts only, with one or two marginal Trump seat wins.

The better interpretation is that Dems targeted only w handful of Clinton seats, but then a wave came along and pushed them all the way to the gates of the likely R catergory. National Dems certainly haven't been targeting as narrowly as the VA Dems did, it's why the Pubs are having to play defense in all these likely R seats against the mountain of Dem cash.

Yeah, this is what I was getting it.

National Democrats have done a better job expanding the map. But like VA, there are going to be some results that makes us say “holy ****”.

Districts like PA-11 and NY-27 come to mind.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

LAWD. It would be like Christmas day if both PA-10 and PA-11 were Dem pickups.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Pittsburgh tragedy is going to uniquely impact Pennsylvania in a surprising way. Especially since the bottom has already fallen out of both republican statewide campaigns.

That makes a whole lot of sense.

However, this poll wrapped more than one week ago (Oct. 21-22), so it was unaffected by the shooting.

It doesn't help that we haven't gotten a poll in PA for over a month.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

North Carolina (Meredith):
Democrats 49
Republicans 38
Others 3

State legislature generic ballot is similar:
Democrats 48
Republicans 38
Others 3

https://www.meredith.edu/assets/images/content/Meredith_College_Final_Poll_Report_October_2018.pdf#page15

Inject this into my veins.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

GOP poll has IL-14 as a tie:

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Source

This is on my list of potential upsets.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PLEASE be true. There is no other party - national, state, or local - that I'd rather see get crushed than the North Carolina GOP.

If there is one state party that really needs to be checked, it is the NC GOP.

I actually think Kentucky's is worse.

PA is bad as well.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Emerson Iowa Polls

IA-01: Abby Finkenauer (D) 53%, Rod Blum (R-inc) 41%, 2% undecided
IA-02: Dave Loebsack (D-inc) 53%, Christopher Peters (R) 40%, 5% undecided
IA-03: Cindy Axne (D) 46%, David Young (R-inc) 45%, 6% undecided
IA-04: Steve King (R-inc) 51%, JD Scholten (D) 42%, 4% undecided

These are surprisingly reasonable.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Where the F are all my quality GCB polls? CNN? FOX? Pew? ABC/WaPo? Quinnipiac? Where are all of you people?

Did someone say more Texas polls?

We should poll Texas again just to make sure.

Oh, and New York.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Where the F are all my quality GCB polls? CNN? FOX? Pew? ABC/WaPo? Quinnipiac? Where are all of you people?

Did someone say more Texas polls?

We should poll Texas again just to make sure.

Oh, and New York.

New York? We’ve got plenty of those. Now Florida that is a place I’m curious about

/s

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Remember VA 2017 election night, when a Republican posted that his model had Enron Ed up big? Sad!

Was that the same guy whose mind model had Moore winning on election night when the votes were coming in?

Are we talking about Larry Schweikart?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LOL @ all the oblivious Republicans ignoring their potential downfall in the comments.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

lol, the WAPO is short-changing us by a point.

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They need their "Dems in disarray" headline.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Again the consistency of the CGB is amazing

Yep, it's been D+8-9 for the past two weeks.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Slew of new polls. Most noteworthy is Weak Gun Control Candidate McBath up 6-

https://twitter.com/healthcarevoter/status/1059498776157659136?s=21

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LA Times-

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 41%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kwhd8oKSfREBcyKFCOopKMvpSFjwxGPo/view