Polish Politics and Elections

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Tusk's government vote of confidence:
248 - 201
9 absent, 1 excluded and 1 vacant

Is "excluded" Braun? (Which, side note: if we're following these people's "logic," not a very Polish-sounding name! Much prefer Grzegorz Brazowski.)

[M0096]

Is "excluded" Braun? (Which, side note: if we're following these people's "logic," not a very Polish-sounding name! Much prefer Grzegorz Brazowski.)

Yes. He was excluded just after the accident had happened. He can't participate in current session of Sejm.

Member of Sejm can't be expelled, but after convictment his seat will be voided.

[President Johnson]

Tusk's government vote of confidence:
248 - 201
9 absent, 1 excluded and 1 vacant

Congratulations to Poland! Wishing Tusk all the best luck. I think he's the experienced leader and steady hand now needed to undo the damage of the previous eight years.

[Sir Mohamed]

Donald Tusk is officially PM of Poland, PIS formally out of power:

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1734924383922028586
https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1734916250902401317

[President Johnson]

Donald Tusk is officially PM of Poland, PIS formally out of power:

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1734924383922028586
https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1734916250902401317

Probably the best international election outcome of the year. There's finally a pro-EU government back in power in the Europe's number five economy. I hope the new government will quickly reverse the damage of eight years PiS rule, especially the judiciary.

This somewhat feels a bit like the European or Polish version of Joe Biden 2020 and Lula Da Silva 2022. Like these two, Tusk returned to national politics as polls gave the the best chances to oust a sitting right-wing government with authoritarian tendencies, promising to roll back the damage inflicted domestically and restore their country's relations abroad. And like Trump and Bolsonaro, dragged out the transition of power and never really offered a gracious concession.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Donald Tusk is officially PM of Poland, PIS formally out of power:

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1734924383922028586
https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1734916250902401317

Probably the best international election outcome of the year. There's finally a pro-EU government back in power in the Europe's number five economy. I hope the new government will quickly reverse the damage of eight years PiS rule, especially the judiciary.

This somewhat feels a bit like the European or Polish version of Joe Biden 2020 and Lula Da Silva 2022. Like these two, Tusk returned to national politics as polls gave the the best chances to oust a sitting right-wing government with authoritarian tendencies, promising to roll back the damage inflicted domestically and restore their country's relations abroad. And like Trump and Bolsonaro, dragged out the transition of power and never really offered a gracious concession.

definitely seems to be a pattern globally. I wonder if something similar will happen with Wilders (though his government will have to be a lot less right wing than PiS, Bolsonaro, or Trump's, just because of the likely coalition dynamics) assuming he forms government.

[Storr]

"Especially poignant moment for Tusk as he was PM when Warsaw helped midwife Ukraine’s association agreement with the EU, Yanukovych’s rejection of which led to Euromaidan. Ten years later…"

Quoted tweet, posted by Donald Tusk: "Dear Volodymyr Zelenskyy, we did it! I dedicate our today’s decision on enlargement to your heroes who gave their lives for an independent and European Ukraine."

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1735437504638067148?s=20

[M0096]

Radosław Sikorski is new Minister of Foreign Affair. Due to his appointment to new government, his European Parliament seat is likely to flip to S&D. Next result from European Coalition (united opposition) list in 2019 election was Janusz Zemke (then SLD, after merger with Spring - New Left). S&D will be the most overrepresented ever in polish delegation to EP.

After 2024 European Parliament election in Poland both S&D and ECR are likely to loss many of their seats.


Composition of new Tusk's government breaks the tradition that almost every ministry consisted of minister and deputies from the same party. Every minister has now deputies from different parties.

[Germany1994]

The new government has fired the bosses of TVP,  trying to bring the network back to a balanced stance after PiS made propaganda channels out of them.  

Another question about Polish TV: I know that TVN was basically the opposition channel in the last eight years. What about the other big private channel Polsat?? What was their stance towards PiS??

[M0096]

For a few years Polsat has similar pro-PiS lean like TVN pro-opposition. News in both major private TVs were on average objective.

TVP was propaganda tube of PiS-government similar to TV in Russia or Belarus and I'm happy that's end of their propaganda.
PiS politicians and propagandists barricaded themselves in Television Information Agency so new news programs will be temporary broadcasted from TVP Sport studio.

[Germany1994]

For a few years Polsat has similar pro-PiS lean like TVN pro-opposition. News in both major private TVs were on average objective.

TVP was propaganda tube of PiS-government similar to TV in Russia or Belarus and I'm happy that's end of their propaganda.
PiS politicians and propagandists barricaded themselves in Television Information Agency so new news programs will be temporary broadcasted from TVP Sport studio.

So they were a bit more conservative-leaning but far from being propaganda channels like TVP??

[M0096]

So they were a bit more conservative-leaning but far from being propaganda channels like TVP??

Yes, you can't call news from Polsat propaganda. Polsat was more pro-government than pro-PiS so I expect the PiS-ian lean of that TV will evaporate in a few weeks.

[Germany1994]

So they were a bit more conservative-leaning but far from being propaganda channels like TVP??

Yes, you can't call news from Polsat propaganda. Polsat was more pro-government than pro-PiS so I expect the PiS-ian lean of that TV will evaporate in a few weeks.

So basically they´re less conservative-leaning and more in favour of the status quo??

[M0096]

So basically they´re less conservative-leaning and more in favour of the status quo??

Owner of Polsat has close ties to state owned companies (e.g. Orlen) so he needs to have good relations with government.
Pro PiS-lean of Polsat is also result of unsuccessful attempt of "nationalisation of media" by PiS-government. The new government doesn't intend to exert presure to the media, so I don't think their lean will be pro-government in next 4 years.

[Germany1994]

Pro PiS-lean of Polsat is also result of unsuccessful attempt of "nationalisation of media" by PiS-government. The new government doesn't intend to exert presure to the media, so I don't think their lean will be pro-government in next 4 years.
[/quote]

The´ll be most likely neutral, right?? What were the ideological leanings of the big four channels (TVP1,TVP2,TVN, Polsat) before 2015??

[M0096]

The´ll be most likely neutral, right?? What were the ideological leanings of the big four channels (TVP1,TVP2,TVN, Polsat) before 2015??

Before 2015:
TVP - tilt government (PO-PSL) (much closer to neutral than Polsat or TVN now)
TVN - lean PO (the same like now)
Polsat - neutral
TV Trwam (minor religious TV, but available to almost everyone) - PiS propaganda (similar to TVP in 2020)

[windjammer]

Looking at the parties, I have the feeling there are a ton of PIS-PL2050 or PO-PL2050 swing voters but not many PO-PIS swing voters.

Am I wrong?

[M0096]

In polish politics there are two major tribes (PiS and PO), who are archenemies of each other.
Switching to archenemy means burning bridges to your former allies.
Why would you switch to archenemy, when you have big enough group at the middle.

PL2050 is based on the group of anti-PO liberals (part of former hard-core base of PO alientated by former PO-PSL governemnt), so it's not surprising that big group of PO-PL2050 swing voters exist.

For PiS voters PO is archenemy, so Third Way was second option for majority of former PiS voters. Konfederacja is too insame and economic right-wing for majority of PiS voters.
Very important factor for former PiS voters was alliance of PL2050 and PSL, because many of them realised there exists an alternative to duopoly of PO and PiS. Third Way is now ally of PO in new government, but they will check the government on the most controversial reforms.

[Storr]

Foreign Minister Sikorski makes his first foreign visit after taking back his old job, one to Kyiv:

https://twitter.com/sikorskiradek/status/1738091474359595485?s=20

[President Johnson]

This guy is nothing more but a partisan hack at this point, abusing his office for partisan causes.

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1738618247056929143

[M0096]

The most important question:
Is PiS stupid enough to contibute to snap parliamentary election (by missing deadline of passing budget)?
The potential snap election would likely result in veto-proof majority (3/5) of government coalition and in extreme case even constitutional majority (2/3).

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

The most important question:
Is PiS stupid enough to contibute to snap parliamentary election (by missing deadline of passing budget)?
The potential snap election would likely result in veto-proof majority (3/5) of government coalition and in extreme case even constitutional majority (2/3).

Maybe they think that a veto proof majority would lead to them reaching too far? Or that the government falls due to infighting? Definitely not a very sound idea but I could see someone thinking it. If the government kept overriding vetoes they might try to crank their outrage machine up, or something?

Idk, just ideas as to why they might try it, even if it's a stupid idea for them.

[DavidB.]

I am interested in hearing more about the internal repercussions (or lack thereof) Grzegorz Braun received from within Konfederacja for his pathetic little stunt. Did others within Konfederacja - or different parts of the party than his - distance themselves from him? Who supported him and who doesn't?

[M0096]

Konfederacja suspended Grzegorz Braun as member of their Sejm club, but refused to expel him from the club. He is also banned by the party from speaking from parliamentary rostrum for a month (means nothing, because he is also suspended as member of Sejm).

The new government coalition gave the Konfederacja ultimatum: expel Braun from parliamentary club before next session of Sejm or lose position of deputy Marshal of Sejm for the party (Krzysztof Bosak).
So Konfederacja will likely lose their deputy Marshal, because half of their voters approved Braun behavior and his removal could cause not passing threshold in local and European election.

[M0096]

Polish local elections will take place on 7th April (potential mayoral runoffs on 21st April).
Voters will elect municipal councils (rady gmin), county councils (rady powiatów), voivodeship councils (sejmiki wojewódzkie) and mayors.

The most interesting mayoral race will be likely Cracow, were 5-term incumbent (Jacek Majchrowski) retired due to poor approval. Independent councilor (who was 2-term member of Sejm of PO, then Palikot's movement) Łukasz Gibała is leading in the polls. He is confirmed opponent of incumbent mayor. The second place is unsure. PO candidate (member of Sejm) Aleksander Miszalski is tied in polls with potential PiS candidates. It isn't known who PiS will field in the election, because their 2018 nominee Małgorzata Wassermann (member of Sejm) refused to run for office again. Deputy of mayor Andrzej Kulig is also running with Majchrowski's endorsement but has very little chance to advance to runoff.