Polish Politics and Elections

[CityofSinners]

I just read about the arrest of Mariusz Kamiński and Maciej Wąsik at the presidental palace and the fight over if their pardon was legal.
From what I understand the Supreme Court of Poland ruled that their 2015 pardon from Duda was invalid because a pardon can only be granted after a final verdict. The Constitutional court ruled that the pardon was valid.
The lower court has entered a final verdict convicting them to 2 years of jail. Now that the final verdict is there what is stopping Duda from pardoning them again? Duda is still defending them, so pardoning should be an easy thing to do.


https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-police-arrest-mps-andrzej-duda-donald-tusk-mariusz-kaminski-maciej-wasik/

[M0096]

Now that the final verdict is there what is stopping Duda from pardoning them again? Duda is still defending them, so pardoning should be an easy thing to do.

PiS principle no. 1:
Never admit you were wrong.

Kaczyński also thinks that chaos is beneficial for his party (PiS).

[CityofSinners]

Now that the final verdict is there what is stopping Duda from pardoning them again? Duda is still defending them, so pardoning should be an easy thing to do.

PiS principle no. 1:
Never admit you were wrong.

Kaczyński also thinks that chaos is beneficial for his party (PiS).

Your explanation feels both plausible and bizare at the same time. In most western countries defending two politicans convicted for corruption and making it into a huge story would be a bad idea politically.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Now that the final verdict is there what is stopping Duda from pardoning them again? Duda is still defending them, so pardoning should be an easy thing to do.

PiS principle no. 1:
Never admit you were wrong.

Kaczyński also thinks that chaos is beneficial for his party (PiS).

Your explanation feels both plausible and bizare at the same time. In most western countries defending two politicans convicted for corruption and making it into a huge story would be a bad idea politically.

🇸🇰

[M0096]

The plot to take over (and merge into PiS) Self-Defense was probably created by PiS leadership and Central Anticoruption Bureau (CBA) was just an executor of that plot.
Kaczyński decided that Kamiński and Wąsik were more important for his party than winning local and European elections.

[President Johnson]

I wonder how long this relationship between Tusk's coalition and Duda, who is acting like a partisan hack, can sustain until his term expires next year without a serious government crisis. On the one hand, they also can't impeach him while a snap election might even expand Tusk's majority.

[Storr]

"President Duda has announced that he will begin new pardon proceedings for the two former PiS government ministers [Kamiński and Wąsik] jailed this week.

His office had previously insisted that Duda would not pardon the pair because he believes he already did so in 2015"

https://twitter.com/notesfrompoland/status/1745471579796996385?s=20

[Storr]

The´ll be most likely neutral, right?? What were the ideological leanings of the big four channels (TVP1,TVP2,TVN, Polsat) before 2015??

Before 2015:
TVP - tilt government (PO-PSL) (much closer to neutral than Polsat or TVN now)
TVN - lean PO (the same like now)
Polsat - neutral
TV Trwam (minor religious TV, but available to almost everyone) - PiS propaganda (similar to TVP in 2020)

Not one of the big four, but you'd think a station trying to be "the Polish Fox News" wouldn't be so amateurish....actually it makes perfect sense:

"Poland Daily, the English-language service of @RepublikaTV, translated the name of Błażej Poboży as   "Blessed God" 🤣"

[Epaminondas]

The conservative media is out in full force against Tusk's bare-knuckled politics:
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/gangster-tactics-in-poland-recall-a-bygone-era/

https://brusselssignal.eu/2024/01/what-is-happening-in-poland-is-setting-a-dangerous-precedent-for-the-whole-of-europe-autocracy-in-the-name-of-liberalism-is-coming-to-a-parliament-near-you-soon/

https://www.courthousenews.com/polands-tusk-carries-out-government-purge-against-former-far-right-rulers/

I'm sceptical that Tusk's patchwork government can sustain this muscular "Iron Broom" strategy for long, especially after the EU funds are unlocked and once Third Way starts balking at social reforms.

[CityofSinners]

@Epaminondas
Why shouldn't Tusk continue his current strategy? Opposition to PiS is what keeps his coalition together and it's not like his coalition can do much else against Duda's veto.

These fights with the PiS also masks how little he can otherwise do against Duda and the PiS dominated constitutional courts. Better to be seen fighting then being powerless.

[Epaminondas]

These fights with the PiS also masks how little he can otherwise do against Duda and the PiS dominated constitutional courts. Better to be seen fighting then being powerless.

What sort of crisis might ensue if Tusk declared noncompliance with the TK?

[Storr]

"Poland is on track to unlock €76B in EU funds, Warsaw Funds and Regional Policy Minister Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nalęcz has said."

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1748696640637051219?s=20

[M0096]

New Left will start negotiations of joint list with KO for local election.
Not surprising, most of sejmik's constituencies have only 5-6 seats so efficient threshold is about 15%.

https://twitter.com/RobertBiedron/status/1748248986576621656?s=20

[M0096]

Mariusz Kamiński and Maciej Wąsik pardoned (again) by President Andrzej Duda, despite negative opinion of general prosecutor.

https://www.politico.eu/article/polish-president-andrzej-duda-pardon-jailed-politician-clash-donald-tusk-mariusz-kaminski-maciej-wasik/

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

New Left will start negotiations of joint list with KO for local election.
Not surprising, most of sejmik's constituencies have only 5-6 seats so efficient threshold is about 15%.

https://twitter.com/RobertBiedron/status/1748248986576621656?s=20

In the kinda unexpected, but kinda reasonable twist of events KO decided to run in the Sejmiks elections without the New Left. Now New Left have to quickly decide what and how they are going to do, so they are kinda screwed. PO is sure that they will get everything they can without them, and sharing with them safe spots on the electoral lists is not required.

[Oryxslayer]

New Left will start negotiations of joint list with KO for local election.
Not surprising, most of sejmik's constituencies have only 5-6 seats so efficient threshold is about 15%.

https://twitter.com/RobertBiedron/status/1748248986576621656?s=20

In the kinda unexpected, but kinda reasonable twist of events KO decided to run in the Sejmiks elections without the New Left. Now New Left have to quickly decide what and how they are going to do, so they are kinda screwed. PO is sure that they will get everything they can without them, and sharing with them safe spots on the electoral lists.

To this end, polling right now has PiS and PO dead even, maybe with PO ahead. This of course is not cause PO has gained ground,  but PiS has lost it, mostly to Holownia's PSL/PL2050 who are seeing a bit of a surge. And Holownia, who is more popular than the parties, is at the moment well poised to run for the presidency (at least according to this poll, I haven't seen others)

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1753056567522435187?t=iZzgoan3-tN5CO-Jnt...

[Antonio the Sixth]

If the vote is evenly split between PiS and two coalition candidates, PiS is f**ked.

[President Johnson]

New Left will start negotiations of joint list with KO for local election.
Not surprising, most of sejmik's constituencies have only 5-6 seats so efficient threshold is about 15%.

https://twitter.com/RobertBiedron/status/1748248986576621656?s=20

In the kinda unexpected, but kinda reasonable twist of events KO decided to run in the Sejmiks elections without the New Left. Now New Left have to quickly decide what and how they are going to do, so they are kinda screwed. PO is sure that they will get everything they can without them, and sharing with them safe spots on the electoral lists.

To this end, polling right now has PiS and PO dead even, maybe with PO ahead. This of course is not cause PO has gained ground,  but PiS has lost it, mostly to Holownia's PSL/PL2050 who are seeing a bit of a surge. And Holownia, who is more popular than the parties, is at the moment well poised to run for the presidency (at least according to this poll, I haven't seen others)

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1753056567522435187?t=iZzgoan3-tN5CO-Jnt...

Even though it's a runoff system, I think the governing coalition should nominate a joint candidate. Halowina seems like a solid choice. Duda can't be out of office soon enough.

[Storr]

"The CEO of Polish state energy giant Orlen has been dismissed.

Daniel Obajtek oversaw a rapid expansion of the firm, which is now ranked among Europe's 50 largest.

But he was also accused of using its resources to support the former PiS government"

...

"Ahead of last year’s parliamentary elections, Orlen was accused of artificially keeping fuel prices low to help PiS’s campaign. The firm denied it, but prices began to rise again just days after the elections, in which PiS lost its majority.

According to the former Orlen CEO Jacek Krawiec, the price cuts before the election may have cost Orlen a total of 5.7 billion zloty (€1.31 billion).

Obajtek himself donated to PiS’s election campaign, saying that “of course I want PiS to win”. It has long been rumoured that, once he leaves Orlen, he will return to politics with his former party. His dismissal today was celebrated as “good” news by Prime Minister Donald Tusk."

https://twitter.com/notesfrompoland/status/1753040718040330596?s=20

[Storr]

Wąsik and Kamiński tried and failed to storm the Sejm building today. Fortunately, Hołownia isn't backing down: "“Mr. Wasik and Mr. Kaminski, by virtue of a ruling by the Warsaw District Court, are not MPs, and nothing will change in this regard,” he told reporters. “Regardless of the actions taken by those who want to make a fuss or start a brawl here. They will not be allowed into the chamber, they will not take part in votes.""

https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-politicians-mariusz-kaminski-maciej-wasik-storm-parliament/

[Epaminondas]

Reading about some recent changes in the court system.

If judges now pick the composition of the Constitutional Court, but the judges are largely PiS friends, what difference would it make?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Glad the Coalition is not playing with kid gloves here. The enemies of democracy must be purged mercilessly.

[Storr]

Farmers blockading intra-Schengen borders, fun times:

"Polish farmers have begun blocking the border with Slovakia, which they say is being used to bring Ukrainian produce to Poland, bypassing the blockade of the border with Ukraine.

On Friday they also plan to start a blockade of the border with Lithuania"

Why Tusk has not forcefully ended the blockade and mostly been conciliatory to the farmers. (I assume this question includes closing the border to the transit of Ukrainian food through Poland to other countries, since one of the farmers' complaints is that food from Ukraine transited through Poland ends up sent back disguised as products from the destination country):

""Should Poland close its border to Ukraine food, as demanded by Polish farmers?"


Yes: 46.5%
No: 29.4%
Don't know: 24.1%

SW Research poll for @rzeczpospolita"

[Epaminondas]

Lawmakers from Poland's ruling coalition will submit a motion to put PiS-affiliated central bank chief Adam Glapiński before a state tribunal by the end of March, per state news agency PAP.

Is just more of Tusk spoiling for a fight with the archenemy to keep his voters motivated, or a legitimate concern about independence of the central bank?

[Duke of York]

local elections are coming up beginning of next month. will be interesting to see what happens.