UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Torrain]

It's the 'we can't change PM because of Ukraine' argument that gets me.

Has Johnson acted admirably on the international stage? Yes.
Has he developed a genuine rapport with Zelenskyy? Apparently so.

But the war in Ukraine will likely be measured in months, or even years, rather than weeks. Will the Conservatives be making this same argument in May 2024? Arguing that Johnson cannot be removed because of the international situation just doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

We're a nation that changed Prime Ministers at key moments during both World Wars! We changed PMs during strike action that crippled the nation. We changed PMs amidst international financial crises.

So if the public finds Johnson wanting, then don't tell us that only his "Churchillian leadership" can save us. Because history is littered with examples of this country turfing out a PM when they were found wanting.

[Torrain]

To be fair, removing Johnson before the locals would be absolute chaos for the party, so politically I can see why they're trying to keep their heads down.

But Sunak and Johnson both said in the Commons that they hadn't attended parties or been privy to rule-breaking. If the parliamentary party just shrugs this off, then it would appear that there really are little-to-no checks and balances in the system at all.

Just frustrated that we're back to the same cycle - Johnson releases a mealey-mouthed statement, Nadine Dorries and Michael Fabricant embarrass themselves in a race to publicly exonerate him, the rest of the party stays quiet for 72 hours, then tries to shame any journalist still talking about it.

Edit: apparently Johnson has refused to rule out receiving further fines for additional parties during the period under investigation. So this whole thing could just go round in circles for weeks, while the Met slowly works through it's backlog.

[Torrain]

It is however fundamentally depressing.

The cult of Boris is driving this. Nothing more.

Yeah, Fabricant's antics are laughable, but the conditions that created them, and the misplaced loyalty required to make a man in his 70s waste day after day defending a chump like Boris, is just draining.

The only satisfying outcome today could provide would be Sunak retaliating against Johnson's briefing against him, and resigning 'on principle', to try and force the PM to spend the next week trying to explain why Allegra Stratton, his entire inner circle, and his Chancellor have had to leave office for their missteps, but he's allowed to stay.

[Torrain]

Snap polls released this evening:




As ever, the problem is the breakdown. Only 1 in 3 Conservative voters favour Johnson's removal, which means mustering the required pressure on backbenchers would be a significant challenge. Really feels like we're back to the first round of partygate takes: "wait for the local elections, and see what panicked swing-seat MPs do on the morning of May 6th".

[Torrain]

I’m really glad Sarwar’s strategy is starting to pay off - he’s fighting an admirable uphill fight, and if Keir Starmer ever becomes PM, I imagine Sarwar will be among those he has to thank. Whether that comes to pass though, remains vague.

Not 100% sure why the Lib Dems are having a moment - but I’d suggest it’s one of two possibilities:
1. Is that they recently changed Leader, changing out classic retail politician Willie Rennie, an eccentric but slightly endearing older chap from Fife, with Alex Cole-Hamilton, a younger and slicker politician from a student-filled part of Edinburgh.
2. “The rising tide raises all boats.” As I’ve noted before, a bad year for the Tories is invariably a good year for both Labour and the Lib Dems. This is particularly the case in Scotland, which had a lot of LD-Tory swing areas before the SNP emerged in 2015. Most notable in David Steel’s (former Liberal leader) old patch in the now-Tory borders, and the rural parts of Aberdeenshire that now hold three Tory MPs. If you want a sense of those potential areas for LD pick-up, go to Wikipedia, and check out the anti Tory swing in Scottish seats in general elections between 1983-1987, and 1992-1997.

[Torrain]

Baron David Wolfson has resigned as a minister in the Ministry of Justice over the partygate fines. Would be more impactful if he was a member of the Commons, but still feels worth noting.

Guess the calculus remains the same unless we get elected representatives stepping down/submitting letters.

Full resignation letter:

[Torrain]

In news that will shock no-one there’s leaks from ‘sources’ close to the investigation that Boris is facing another fine for a more serious breach.

Confirmed. Telegraph has the story, with the second fine being issued this evening. While fine no. 1 was for the birthday party (complete with cake ambush), fine no. 2 was for the leaving do for Lee Cain, former Comms Director.

This one is notable for being a drinks reception, where Johnson 'lingered', suggesting he was there for social mixing, and more explicitly broke the rules. 'Sources' say it's far more damaging, but that may be a Westminster bubble thing.

Pippa Crerar at the Mirror has a No. 10 source saying there could be a total of 3 or 4 fines. Tabloid, so take with a pinch of salt, but Crerar has been a pretty good source on partygate and typically rises above the Mirror's overall standard. Additionally, Crerar technically scooped the Telegraph, as she listed Cain's leaving do among the three events that could be fined (along with the Abba karaoke party and the garden BYOB event), so this seems plausible.

[Torrain]

The most serious news however, may be that Lindsay Hoyle is planning to allocate time for a debate on whether to refer Johnson to the Parliamentary Standards Committee. This debate is likely to occur at some point in the coming fortnight, as early as next Wednesday, per the Telegraph article I cited above. There really are no good options for the Conservatives there. They have to have a multi-hour debate, where Starmer, Rayner, Davey and Blackford get to stand on the moral high ground and lecture them, while Fabricant and Dorries make things worse from the sidelines.

And at the end of it, do they agree to hand the issue to the Committee?

If they do, then they cede power to a committee run by Chris Bryant, who essentially gets to play Robert Mueller for a couple of weeks (albeit with a Tory majority on the committee, depending on whether you count the lay members of the public who sit on the committee).

If they don't, then it's essentially Owen Paterson 2.0, less than two weeks before the May elections...

[Torrain]

News according to the Spectator - Imran Khan is to quit as Wakefield MP. By-election imminent, rather than speculative now.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JAHeale/status/1514636972337385472

Edit: now confirmed by the BBC.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61113265?at_custom2=twitter&at_medium=custom7&at_campaign=64&at_custom3=%40BBCPolitics&at_custom4=twitter&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D

[Torrain]

Andrew Bridgen (who recently flipped from Johnson critic to defender) has found himself in a spot of legal bother. I’m not a Times subscriber, so haven’t been behind the paywall yet. But Bridgen is denying any wrongdoing and fiercely appealing.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1515580641403879424
Not sure if this will have any significant impact (ie I’m not sure it’s a resignation matter yet), but it does add to our mid-90s, Back to Basics narrative.

If it does end up being relevant, Bridgen’s constituency was Labour through the Blair years, but snapped right in 2010 and he’s sitting on a big majority. A by-election here would be tough, (but not Owen Paterson tough) but provide a major blow to the Tories if lost.

[Torrain]

Debate on PM’s conduct, and referring him to the Standards Committee, is ongoing.

Usually faces seem to be dominating - old Boris critics like William Wragg have spoken in favour of the motion.

Chris Bryant (Chair of the Standards and Privileges Committee) has recused himself from leading the investigation, based on previous comments.

The Conservative Whips had planned to introduce an amendment shooting down the referral, but that plan was abandoned this morning, and Tory MPs have seemingly been told they can go home for the weekend. A referral, and subsequent investigation (once the Met is done) seems inevitable.

Biggest news so far seems to be Steve Baker (hardline Conservative MP, member of the European Research Group, and a key plotter against May) joining the “Boris must resign” crowd, seemingly out of nowhere.

The Baker news is interesting because it comes after Mark Harper, earlier this week. Harper and Baker are chair and co-chair, respectively of the “COVID Recovery Group”, who were established to fight lockdown restrictions. What’s been missing in opposition to Johnson so far is the United opposition of a Tory faction. If the COVID Recovery Group unite against Johnson, it creates a wedge against Johnson, and the potential core of a larger group of rebels.

[Torrain]

I might add - the glum outlook of most Conservative MPs in attendance is hardly in-keeping with the jubilant, forgiving attitude of the Parliamentary Party being reported in the media.

Sure - many of them have gone home. But you’d expect the whips could bring in a few enthusiastic 2019-intake MPs. The tone of debate from the Tories feels more like a a memorial service for your controversial uncle than a vigorous defence of a leader they insist will lead them to another election victory.

[Torrain]

Despite the public disavowal from the PM and much of the cabinet, the Mail are doubling down on their Rayner Basic Instinct story, and are now trying to present themselves as defenders of press freedom for stonewalling Lindsay Hoyle after he tried to meet with them to discuss the story.

I just mean, who is this for? Are they going to tell us that they’ve been cancelled next? This all just seems like a ludicrous, cruel fantasy concocted to sell more copies (which I guess is a fair assessment of the Mail’s typical business strategy).

[Torrain]

PMQs has been pretty poor again.

Starmer set up some decent optics - being flanked by Rayner on one side and Reeves on the other, while asking questions about the Rayner story. He made solid digs about the upcoming tax increases, but failed to land anything memorable.

Johnson pulled old lines (“We’d still be under lockdown with Labour”, “Captain Hindsight”, “The last Labour Government should have invested in nuclear to prevent dependence on Russian oil”) against the opposition. He was slightly stronger on the economy, citing some seemingly impressive employment figures, but failing to provide any solid answers to questions.

There was no stammering in the way Johnson does when he’s nervous, but there was a loud, fairly aggressive defensiveness to his head-to-head with Starmer that was a bit odd. He mostly calmed down during the backbencher questions, apart from some odd digressions (spinning Aaron Bell’s constituency question into an attack on Labour’s opposition to the Rwanda policy).

Both leaders (and Blackford) pivoted to their election pitch eventually, but the Conservatives seemed to be the most brazen. Almost half of the Conservative questions were scripted attacks on Labour or Lib Dem councils, while attempts by other parties to bring up the elections were heckled into submission.

Most amusing moment was the revelation that among the 200 MPs sanctioned by the Russian Government today, was noted statesman Michael Fabricant.

[Torrain]

I see some Tories are desperate to get Starmers beer in Durnham back in the news.

Especially desperate given that there’s no evidence that the police are actually reopening the case. Instead, the Mail have taken the textbook police non-responses, and twisted them into a headlines.

It’s been a week of poor behaviour from them, even by their own standards.

[Torrain]

The Telegraph have named the Tory p*rn watching MP - Neil Parish, chairman of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/04/29/revealed-neil-parish-named-tory-mp-caught-watching-pornography/

Story now also on the BBC, and confirmation of whip withdrawal.

Edit: for those of you whose minds drifted to by-election potential - his seat of Tiverton and Horniton has been Conservative territory since time immemorial, with the two precursor constituencies being Tory back as far as the 19th century, best I can see from Wikipedia.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1520678457100935169

Totally a serious party you guys. “We’ll stick around to support Ukraine, but once this is over we should leave, because Russia will never do anything this bad again.”

Going to be interesting to see whether their current polling (5-8%) is borne out in 2024, (especially if they pick up a fresh crop of councillors next week), or if closer interrogation of their policies and environmental promises from Labour chip that support down to a more traditional level.

[Torrain]

Of all the BS they’ve pulled this week, my favourite Daily Mail nonsense has to be today’s “shock revelation” that Labour and the Lib Dems are coordinating to hurt the Tories.

Not only is it old news (I remember chatting about it on the TIGMOO thread at least a month ago) and has precedent going back to 1997, but the Mail wrote a series of front page articles applauding Farage’s similar tactics in 2019!

Compare and contrast:

[Torrain]

The PM did his first media round since what October today- it was pretty awful and a reminder of why he doesn’t really do much of it.

It was very similar to the late Gordon Brown era where you actively wondered why it he was allowed out.

For a man who started his career in the media, and used TV very effectively to jumpstart his political prospects, I'm always surprised how badly Johnson does when exposed to political or media scrutiny.

The buffoon act works in specific settings (and in the past was a good deflector during elections), but now that he's a leader with a record and a disgruntled public, it seems to be coming to the end of it's usefulness.

When cornered, Johnson either becomes a clown, or a high school bully with a blunt tongue. In the coming months, and (if he makes it that far) in 2024, I can't see either strategy being particularly helpful. If "out of touch" Boris (either frivolous or cruel, take your pick) finally cuts through his populist vibe, and becomes the prevailing media narrative, he could find himself stereotyped just as effectively as Brown was...

[Torrain]

I still think beergate is a damp squib. If it had broken through, or additional Starmer events had come to light, it would be an uncomfortable one.

Starmer's appeal seems to increasingly be based on being the "only sensible, reliable guy in the room", a boring but competent opponent to Johnson. And until Labour have the bandwidth to promote their agenda, that's going to be the face of the party. Starmer being shown to be no better than Boris would demolish that argument, and make him essentially just a less interesting version of the PM.

But the timing is actually pretty awful. The story is going to be buried by the local results for a couple of days, then a few days of leadership and/or cabinet reshuffle speculation. And then we'll be heading towards the two by-elections.

There simply won't be the bandwidth, or airtime for the media to focus on it for now. I'd agree with CumbrianLefty that if Starmer has a personal scandal later on, it might add to the damage, but right now, it's going to be a footnote in a busy May.

[Torrain]

Also, anecdotal local elections news because I'm feeling proud of her - my environmentalist, but otherwise pretty politics-averse younger sister called me up this afternoon to ask for advice on how best to tactically vote in her ward. She might turn around and vote for the Greens, but I'm just thrilled she's getting involved, and putting serious thought into it.

I had to stop myself after I sent her links to the last couple of ward results and a full paragraph about the SNP-Lib Dem swing margin. She's a patient soul.

[Torrain]

This sign has apprently been spotted in a Camden polling station:


Ironic reminder of the dual function our civic centres now play, or breach of election rules about political advocacy inside polling stations? Whatever your opinion, there's someone on social media screaming it.

Guess people have to do something in the last hour while we wait for the polls to close...

[Torrain]

The Telegraph is reporting that Durham Police is going to investigate the Keir Starmer beer event.

Christopher Hope is being insufferable about it online. If I hear it described as a “gamechanger” one more time… It just looks like peak cope. He keeps nattering on about how badly Starmer will regret asking for Sunak to resign over the birthday cake incident, and dreaming about both major parties having new leaders by the autumn.

It’s sort of embarrassing watching a man in his 50s “coping” this hard.

[Torrain]

If he gets fined - it would be pretty hard to continue, given his rhetoric on Johnson.
Swapping leaders would at least let Labour regain the high-ground on this issue.

But a large part of me thinks this won’t result in a fine. Maybe I’m just p*ssed off at the Telegraph, who’ve leapt in with calls for him to resign, while putting Johnson on a pedestal despite far more egregious and numerous social engagements.

I like Starmer a lot as a leader. But I don’t hold a Fabricant or Dorries level of loyalty towards anyone in Westminster. The median voter would see fines for Starmer as evidence that “both parties are as bad as each other”. In fact, that damage may already be done.

I’m just frustrated that it looks like the Tories are going to get away with this all. No accountability, ever.

I hope this is just a jumpy police department taking a final look to get the Tory press off their backs.

[Torrain]

The Telegraph is still banging the drum on the Lib-Lab coalition story. Struggling to see who this is for - maybe reluctant Tory voters who are disinclined to vote after Partygate?

Ironic that they are trying to scaremonger about Starmer and Davy, two of the most inoffensive party leaders in recent memory. If this is a taster of the Conservative line in 2024, I doubt it will be as effective as the "coalition of chaos" hit against a theoretical Miliband-Salmond pact.

https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1525863500945530880

I guess they're betting on Starmer surviving the summer?