UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Torrain]

Here we go
https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1492255687249911811

[Torrain]

Have to agree with the above. The noise in polls is key to working out the long term trends when you can throw them in the average. Pre-averaging them for the sake of embarrassment when you didn’t get something exactly right feels hubristic, and like it could hurt the polling industry on the whole if you’re not careful.

If I’m not mistaken, this kind of ‘normalising’ levels of support for parties based entirely on the previous election could/would have completely missed the impact of the Brexit Party in 2019, or the sudden dominance of the SNP, their retreat in 2017 and return in 2019.

In a country where small parties emerge, meaningfully influence all of two elections and then collapse (*cough* UKIP), this just seems shortsighted.

[Torrain]

Any thoughts on the informal Lib-Lab pact that Starmer seems to be forming, according to today’s Financial Times?

Personally, I think it’s a pretty solid strategy, and probably necessary if Labour are going to have any sort of chance in 2024. Making up a 130 seat deficit would be a historic achievement, so you need every seat you can get - letting the Lib Dems have a clear run at Tory seats they can’t win seems like a no brainer.

Beyond cutting the number of Tory seats though - if Labour were to become the largest party but end up a dozen seats short, it’s a decent strategy to have a ideologically-compatible party who is large enough to make up the gap, and whom you are already in good relations. (or at least friendly enough to work out electoral pacts - which sounds like the first draft of what could become coalition discussions?).

I’ll admit though - I’m exactly the kind of disenchanted centrist that Starmer’s entire strategy is built around reaching out to, so it may just be my personal biases that make this seem like a good plan. I imagine it won’t do Starmer any favours with segments of the Labour base (but they were already pretty unhappy with him, if the response to Corbyn’s suspension is anything to go by…). I guess you could argue it makes Labour look weak - but when they’ve been out of power for 12 years, and hold under 200 seats in Parliament, I think that threshold has already been reached.

Wonder if it could be beneficial to the Lib Dems in particular though. Beyond just the increased odds in a number of seats, an informal alliance with Labour could help erase the stigma of the last coalition. Or it could make them seem too ideologically flexible - and hurt both parties. I’d bet more on the former than the latter though - I doubt 2024 is going to be fought on Nick Clegg’s actions.

[Torrain]

Gonna be a crazy day out there. Actually listened to the Shipping Forecast tonight, and I’ve never heard the word “cyclonic” used so frequently and dispassionately before.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ShippingForecas/status/1494436593838567425

[Torrain]

Her Majesty has tested positive for Covid. Charlie Boy and Camilla both tested positive some days ago. Always a concern at her age.

Johnson was (and is still scheduled) to give his big ‘living with COVID’ statement tomorrow where he sets out the rollback of all remaining restrictions. Going to make an odd political contrast now.

The plan was to have a Commons vote on the rollback - which has been set up as a trap for Labour, who either have to join the government on the rollback (if it all goes wrong, Tories can say they voted for it, and bear some responsibility), or vote to maintain restrictions (letting Johnson spend the next two years saying that Labour would have “kept us in permanent lockdown etc” in PMQs etc). Don’t think Labour will have to worry too much now - political scrutiny will probably be elsewhere now.

[Torrain]

ITV have obtained a copy of the Met Police questionnaire issued to Downing Street officials:



The questions are pretty threadbare:


The Metropolitan Police says there are three ways to respond to the questionnaire:

• Remain silent and answer no questions
• Provide an answer to the written questions in the attached document
• Provide a prepared statement in your own words

Doesn't make you feel terribly confident that the Met are taking this seriously...

[Torrain]

Interesting, and perhaps important clarification. Has been reassuring to see Johnson mostly avoid sabre rattling and escalatory language in the past fortnight.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1498676957663346695

As much as I would like to see Johnson step aside himself before the next election, I would have absolutely no qualms about him demoting Truss at this point, and wouldn’t even view it as political opportunism on his part (getting rid of a key rival), as much as ensuring a more serious figure gets the role.

There’s just been too much Thatcher cosplay (hats, tanks and fur coats) and unforced errors at this point for me to trust that she’s the right person for the job. I’d much prefer her spot to be taken by DefSec Ben Wallace, former Defence and Int. Development Sec. Penny Mordaunt, a junior FCO minister like James Cleverly, or even Priti Patel at this point.

I doubt she’ll go at the moment, but if we get a quieter week in March or April, with no major escalation/development in the Russia crisis, I hope in vain that the PM might pick someone else, knowing full well that he seems to be incapable of firing anyone.

[Torrain]

Interesting, and perhaps important clarification. Has been reassuring to see Johnson mostly avoid sabre rattling and escalatory language in the past fortnight.

The Ukrainians are outnumbered and desperately need foreign volunteers (with a minimum of military training and fitness), I don't see allowing your citizens to volunteer as "sabre rattling", it's basically the least Western governments can do if they don't want Ukraine to be overrun.

I’m not opposed in principle, in fact I’ve got no problem with Brits going, and would oppose the government punishing British fighters in Ukraine once the crisis is over.

But the tone and words used by government officials can cause waves, especially in a situation as tenuous as this one. The Foreign Secretary openly celebrating/encouraging British citizens fighting Russian troops in a foreign country is a bad look, that could provide Moscow justification for escalation (including military action, but especially in taking actions like sanctioning cyber attacks against UK institutions like the NHS).

[Torrain]

Big story in tomorrow's Sunday Times about Johnson intervening to personally waive security concerns over a peerage for a Russian oligarch.

https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1500232483324968970

The Times says they have contemporary sources from No.10, and evidence that Johnson intervened directly to pile pressure on the intelligence services, whose change in recommendations lead the House of Lords Appointments Commission to reconsider the nomination (which they first rejected in March 2020).

And this all happened at the same time Johnson was meddling with government contracts vis a vis Government adverts in newspapers, including Lebedev's own London Evening Standard.

*

I know that I'm far from an unbiased source on Johnson (as much as I appreciate his rhetoric on Ukraine and more level approach in recent days, I'll still be cracking open a celebratory can or two the night he steps up to a podium and announces he's going), but this seems like a pretty open-shut case of pro-oligarchical corruption that undermines his moral authority and leadership in this situation.

I would like to think that the government has serious plans to tackle the Moscow money in the City of London, but I'm genuinely concerned that they're going to try and skirt the issue until it's too late, deeply damaging what's left of public trust in Westminster in the process.

[Torrain]

Johnson currently at pre-partygate levels of popularity - turns out war in Europe does still produce a ‘rally-round-the-flag’ effect, even if it can’t shift you out of a net-negative approval.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1500883993725747202
I guess the real question is whether that persists, and what on Earth happens during the local elections…

[Torrain]

Looks like Extinction Rebellion are planning a wave of disruption to energy production in the coming weeks.

Extinction Rebellion plan to block oil refineries next month to take a stand against fossil fuels
The group has also warned that following the blockades, it would "flood" London with people to create their largest number of roadblocks and cause "maximum disruption".

Climate change protesters have said they intend to block major UK oil refineries next month and "take a stand to stop fossil fuels once and for all".

Extinction Rebellion said the action would begin on 9 April with the aim of causing enough disruption "to create a tipping point moment".

The group has also warned that following the blockades of refineries, it would "flood" London with people to create their largest number of roadblocks.

It said the protest group, Just Stop Oil, will be joining the action at refineries and called on other organisations to take part.

As often with Extinction Rebellion, I remain highly sympathetic to the message, and utterly cynical about the methods. Slowing down energy production amidst a cost-of-living crisis and international tensions in the oil market is hardly going to win them friends in the public.

I imagine the only person who cheered at this headline was Rupert Murdoch, who may have been given a golden opportunity to run climate-sceptic headlines across the country for weeks at a time.

[Torrain]

Starmer has written to the House of Lords, asking for the appropriate committee to review Lord Lebedev’s peerage. Unlikely to go anywhere right now, and not getting much airtime.

But if Johnson gets sucked into a “cash/influence for honours” scandal with a Russian oligarch, I can’t see any downside for Labour to keep banging this drum.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1502720724737396736

[Torrain]

The political pressure has evaporated - for now. Two of the 13 public 1922 letters (Andrew Bridgen, Douglas Ross), have even been rescinded.

But Johnson is by no means out of the woods, especially if the conflict in Ukraine enters a ceasefire or some diplomatic agreement in a month or so, and attention from the press and public turns back to Westminster.

There’s still the Met investigation, a public enquiry into the Government’s handling of COVID-19 in 2020, and the local elections in May, which, even if there’s a personal boost for Johnson, are still likely to be bruising.

The odds today, on March 17th, of Johnson fighting the election in 2024 seem miles higher than this time a month ago, but there are a number of factors that could still imperil his premiership.

[Torrain]

Boris seems to have forgotten the “Euro” part of “Euromaidan”.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenQuinn75/status/1505157948649230340

I knew we were going to get tone-deaf nationalist comparisons between the UK and Ukraine eventually, but I thought the first person to make one was definitely going to be from Sinn Fein or Alex Salmond, not the PM.

[Torrain]

Wind and solar farms have always suffered a degree of NIMBYism in this country, unfortunately. I’ve lived in some pretty liberal seats, surrounded by environmentally focused voters, who tear into the Tories over oil and gas, but nevertheless got up in arms when planning permission was approved for a wind farm in their area.

Apologies for more Fife content - but this is a recent article that sums it up nicely: https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/fife/2637993/wind-turbine/

One of those quoted in the piece is from the tiny local village of Ceres. A couple of wind turbines were going to be built there 10-15 years ago, but they lobbied so furiously that the project was cancelled, despite the fact that they have a population smaller than your average lecture hall. The bizarre anti-turbine murals (which depict grinning luddites kicking wind turbines (which inexplicably have arms and legs) as they run away) which decorate local sheds and barns are still being maintained.

Locals still turn out in droves to vote for Lib Dems and SNP alike, parties who have both approved these projects in droves over the past 20 years of Holyrood.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1508763010940157957?ref_src=twsrc...

https://mobile.twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1508763612109758471?ref_src=twsrc...

[Torrain]

And today it has been confirmed over 20 FPN's will be issued over the Downing Street "parties".

It won't be said *who* actually got them, but if one person who did just happens to be the PM - then its hard to see that not leaking out isn't it?

Reckon it will.

And the odds of Labour introducing some kind of parliamentary measure/Urgent Question about the public disclosure if the PM is fined have to be pretty high, even if it doesn’t leak out.

[Torrain]

David Warburton, Tory MP for Somerton & Vroom, has had the Tory whip suspended:
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1510301596609130498

A very Tory sounding scandal, this one...

Starting to feel a bit like late-stage Major, with a steady stream of whip withdrawals, drug stories and corruption scandals.

Also worth noting that the Lib Dems held Somerton and Frome until 2015, and have retained second-place in each election since. In the event of a by-election, there’s decent odds that the Tories lose the seat to them. 

[Torrain]

Possible there are byelections in Wakefield and Somerton/Frome in quick succession - if nothing else this is likely to demonstrate the de facto Labour/LibDem electoral alliance again.

After Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire, Somerton and Frome should be an easy pickup for the LibDems. And in this environment, Labour should be easily flipping Wakefield.

I wonder if the LibDems will double their caucus in the parliament again lol.

Now that Brexit is essentially settled, and they’ve been able to slowly shed their “Stop Brexit Whatever The Cost” branding, the Lib Dems have made a remarkable recovery as the middle class’s reliable party of protest.

[Torrain]

Usual warnings but there’s been a slight shift in polling over the last week with Labour starting to get larger leads- I expect it’s linked to the cost of living and Ukraine becoming more about refugees.

Wouldn’t be shocked if either Patel or Sunak are sacked in a panic if the Government are still in hot water this summer- it’s usual for Governments to have one big reshuffle before a GE.

If Johnson’s response to a drubbing in the May local elections is “I hear you, and I’m sacking the Chancellor/Home Sec”, it might gain him a point or two, but I’d expect that most observers would immediately characterise him as sacrificing someone else to save his own career, again.

I’m reminded of Jeremy Thorpe’s quip about MacMillan after he fired 1/3 of the cabinet, including his chancellor to try and save his premiership in 1962:
“Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life.”

_{Yes, that’s massively hypocritical by Thorpe, given he literally tried to take another man’s life to save his own reputation, but it’s still a bloody good line.}

[Torrain]

It would look like this and could easily detonate the parliamentary party but both Patel and Sunak are causing problems for various reasons and pose a threat to the re-election prospects. Patel is hated by the electorate and has causes very bad coverage over Ukraine.

If you wanted to be very bold (and slightly suicidal) put Gove as Chancellor and make Shapps, Zahawi or Javid Home Sec.

Tbh - if Gove ever gets one of the Great Offices, I always thought he’d be sent to the Home Office - a poisoned chalice that would allow him to flex the political and technocratic muscles that have allowed him to stay in ministerial office for 12 years, but keeping him busy enough that he doesn’t have time to sleep, let alone plot.

Given he was (prior to his famous Brutus moment) considering a unity ticket with Johnson in 2016, I could understand him coveting No. 11, but I don’t think any PM would give a politician like Gove that office. The Chancellor commands too much power and public attention to give it to someone who’s entire public persona has become “semi-competent fixer, highly-competent backstabber”.

*

I do agree with your points on Patel and Sunak. Both are becoming political liabilities, and provide Johnson with a chance to shore himself up. There are basically no good reasons left to keep Patel, and Sunak’s collapsing popularity provides some cover for Johnson to dispose of an (albeit weakened) rival.

The only other thought that occurs, is that it will become very poor optics if Boris is seen to be trying to choose one of those two specific politicians to use as a human shield. A man with Boris’ record of racialised comments, choosing between two British-Asian politicians as a scapegoat would be... …unfortunate.

[Torrain]

Operation save Rishi in full swing, with claims he’s been smeared and that it’s part of a coordinated plot.

“Help me, I’ve been defamed with politically embarrassing truths!”

[Torrain]

Talk about a mixed week for the Conservatives. On one hand, you’ve got Johnson’s visit to Kyiv, which prompted murmurs of outright respect from even my lefty academic colleagues, who’ve spent the whole week cursing the government for their new energy bills.

(For my part, I think it’s quite admirable and worth celebrating, but will never fully be able to detach Johnson’s approach to Ukraine from his own post-partygate sense of desperate self-preservation).

And on the other, you’ve got Sunak’s family leaving Downing Street to avoid further scrutiny, and then Sajid Javid admitting that he too held non-dom status for a number of years in the 2000s (shielding a significant volume of his income from taxation at the time), only a day after he made a grand stand about our duty to fund British institutions with our taxes.

Hard to see exactly where this all goes, but as Conservatopia said earlier in the week, the whole situation has become very “Back to Basics”. Guess the real question is whether the Labour Party of the 2020s, which is in a far weaker position electorally (and possibly financially) than New Labour was in the mid-90s, can take advantage of the situation, or simply gets lost in its umpteenth round of infra-party squabbles.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1513538740861513736

[Torrain]

As Afleitch says, this case was beyond the pale. From testimony, the victim clear would not have consented, even if he could, which he couldn’t as a minor.

Blunt gets away with some pretty inflammatory stuff - but calling a convicted abuser “my friend and colleague”, as he did in his statement today, feels beyond the pale. If he was my MP, that statement alone would be enough to make me write to the constituency party and urge his deselection.

Several classmates of mine had their lives marred by a predator like Khan, at a particularly vulnerable age. I look on the perpetrator of those crimes with a degree of revulsion that I didn’t think possible until I learned the full story. The idea that a man of similar action like Khan would find himself lauded by one of the most prominent LGBT Conservatives is infuriating and dangerous.

Blunt said in his statement that convicting Khan would hurt “millions of LGBT+ Muslims around the world”, and that the conviction reinforced ”lazy tropes about LGBT+ people”. But the real damage has been done by Blunt himself. By verbally embracing a convicted abuser - he has himself given fodder to those very same stereotypes and falsehoods (that there is little or no distinction between gay men and pedophiles). I expect we’ll hear these words parroted by the Tommy Robinsons and Julia Hartley-Brewer’s of the world before the end of the week.

For reference, the Spectator has recorded the full statement here:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/crispin-blunt-s-late-night-blunder/amp