UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Torrain]

Can't you just imagine Trump saying these lines in that strange intonation of his?

"Peppa Pig World is very much my kind of place: It has very safe streets, discipline in schools..."

I've often thought that the Boris-Trump comparison was a little shallow (given Johnson's definitely got a little more depth to him, and appears to actively play the fool for political gain).

On days like today however, it seems rather apt.

Boris's buffoon act was helpful at getting him into power (either "he's harmless" or "he's one of us"). I doubt it's going to be much help keeping him in power though. If we really are headed towards another Tory leadership election, saying "I'm a lovable buffoon" just lets some other cabinet member or old grandee present themselves as the "serious" candidate.

[Torrain]

I do love how we replaced our EU size punching bag with a France sized one.

Not that Macron exactly helps himself. What he did over Astra Zeneca was shameless and brushed under the carpet by many FBPE types.

It's just as much in France's interest to keep the tiff going with the Presidential election there next Spring.

I'm pretty sure you could write an entire academic thesis exploring just how much of the Anglo-French feud was motivated by diverting attention from domestic issues, rather than geopolitical conflict or xenophobia.

[Torrain]

Is it true that British Evangelicals tend to vote liberal democrat ?

I grew up in a UK evangelical household, which was typically Lib-Dem (occasionally Tory in certain constituencies). It was pretty common in our congregation too.

I know things are a little more fractured now, but that was certainly the state of affairs in the 00s and the coalition years.

As a disclaimer, most of that time was in Scotland, where tactical voting has become more common, and we lived in a LibDem-SNP marginal seat.

[Torrain]

Was there any particular reason for this ? Seems odd given that the libdem don't seem aligned to evangelicals on any particular issue and the electoral behaviour of their American brethren

Christian socialism (largely decried in the US evangelical movement, by figures such as Beni Johnson), as a direct response to the call to action in the Sermon on the Mount is not uncommon. The calls to feed the poor, house the homeless etc in Matthew 5-7 are often cited if you ask a left-leaning Christian why they vote the way they do.

Evangelical culture just never became dependent on opposition to abortion in the way is has in the US, and the absense of a clear voting bloc (as they split between the major parties), has prevented politicization of them in the same way.

But both Abortion and LGBT rights were both issues the liberals seemed to lie on the left of the main parties in terms of parlimentary legislation.

Abortion has never been rallying point in elections here - while there are a handful of vocally anti-abortion/pro-life Conservative MPs, they've never made overcoming existing legislation a priority. Abortion in the UK is governed by the Abortion Act of 1967 (slightly modified by further legislation in 1990 and 2008), and is thus a matter purely for Parliament, rather than the courts. The fact that the Thatcher government never touched the Act, means that there's no figurehead for a UK anti-abortion movement, and the Act is broadly viewed as settled law. That means that change would need a significant anti-abortion majority in the House, which has never existed.

You've also got to understand that we never really had a pitched fight over same-sex marriage in this country (so there was no time, or impetus to really rally the churches against it). A Conservative PM essentially just introduced the legislation during the middle of a parliament when it became politically viable, and set up a largely free vote on the matter. This allowed him to claim a measure of credit for it passing, even though Labour and the Lib Dems provided the votes to overcome the split between the socially liberal and conservative factions within the Conservative Party.

In my experience, many social conservatives vent/grumble privately (no judgement - just an observation, having heard several of these), but are too invested in other political causes to change their voting patterns. Think of it as the inverse or perhaps a corollary to the reluctant Trump-voting evangelical ("I don't like his attitude, but he'll protect the unborn"), essentially saying something like "I may not agree on the redefinition of marriage, but I care too much about the EU/NHS funding/immigration reform/blocking the *insert other party* candidate etc, to switch to another party."

[Torrain]

Harriet Harman is standing down at the next election. While she’ll leave behind a mixed record, I think she’s been enough of a fixture in Parliament to post about here.

What’s perhaps most immediately (and trivially) apparent is that it prevents her from officially claiming the title of Mother of the House (informally granted to her by Theresa May, as recognition as the longest continuously standing female MP). Harman is the third-longest serving MP, (after Bottomley and Sherman), and about a decade younger than either of them.

Had she run for re-election, it’s likely she would have claimed the title at some point in the coming decade (given that Sherman is also standing down), becoming the first woman to claim the top spot in parliamentary seniority.

https://mobile.twitter.com/HarrietHarman/status/1468128354192736260

[Torrain]

I'm quite surprised by how badly things have gone recently, remember when people thought he was gonna call an early election lol

Really? I’ve always thought Boris would run out the clock on this Parliament until 2024 (assuming he stays in charge that long, which now seems less likely). Tory odds of another majority this size have to be pretty slim, given they’ve essentially been in a polling slump since January.

Labour only overtook them in the past month, when the scandals came to a climax, but it’s been a steady decline from their peak popularity during the “everyone can have a vaccine soon and the pandemic is probably over” days.

[Torrain]

I believe Theresa May's approval rating was around this level when she resigned in 2019.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGQVun0XoAMGNlI?format=jpg&name=large

The Conservative Party is rather skilled at self-preservation (how else do you get to be among the oldest two political parties in the world, alongside the Democrats). Between the mounting scandals and the polling collapse, I wonder whether we might finally be heading towards the Boris breaking point.

To horribly paraphrase another leader named Johnson: "If I've lost Ant and Dec, I've lost the country".

If any footage of Boris partying, or directly condoning it arises, it should be game over. On the other hand, if he can ride it out until Christmas, he might be able to reduce the pressure over the holiday, and cling on for a little longer.

[Torrain]

As a former Director of Public Prosecutions, it would be hard to make a charge of tolerating extremism stick.

Yeah, Dan the Roman seems to have a very Americanised view of UK politics. Starmer's weakness was always going to be "man, he's uninspiring", not "man, he's a terrifying extremist".

And he's probably more likely to lose an election over a photo of him wearing beige slippers, reinforcing notions about his lack of political and personal resolve than shaking hands with a "radical LGBTQ+ activist", or whatever strawman the Mail comes up with that week.

[Torrain]

As a former Director of Public Prosecutions, it would be hard to make a charge of tolerating extremism stick.

Yeah, Dan the Roman seems to have a very Americanised view of UK politics. Starmer's weakness was always going to be "man, he's uninspiring", not "man, he's a terrifying extremist".

And he's probably more likely to lose an election over a photo of him wearing beige slippers, reinforcing notions about his lack of political and personal resolve than shaking hands with a "radical LGBTQ+ activist", or whatever strawman the Mail comes up with that week.

Hmm how can he go about making his image seem less boring and dull ? take up extreme sports or something ?

Oh no, don't do that! That's how we end up with bad ideas like putting William Hague on a log flume...

[Torrain]

98 Tory rebels on one of the Covid votes tonight. That must be close to half the non-payroll votes. Haven't heard of any resignations yet.

Not sure who the rebels are, but believe Andrew Rosindell (Con, Romford) is one of them.

List here: https://votes.parliament.uk/Votes/Commons/Division/1182#noes

Seems like a mix of wings of the party.

Notable Tory No votes:
- David Davies
- Karen Bradley (NI Secretary under May)
- Ian Duncan Smith
- Liam Fox
- Chris Grayling
- Andrea Leadsom
- Esther McVey (DWP Secretary under May)
- Theresa Villiers (NI Secretary under Cameron, former DEFRA Secretary under Boris)

Other notable No votes:
- 6 (out of 8 total) DUP MPs
- 10 (out of 12 total) Lib Dem MPs
- Caroline Lucas (Green)
- Jeremy Corbyn
- Diane Abbott
- Rebecca Long-Bailey (Corbyn protege)

[Torrain]

The member for North Thanet, Sir Roger Gale, is on BBC News this morning. He’s defending Boris, but has also inferred that the 1922 Committee Chairman has already received a number of letters of no-confidence.

Doesn’t expect the trigger number (52 letters in the current Parliament) to be reached, but refuses to estimate the number sent.

He’s talked quite candidly about the impact of the party scandal on the by-election, and stated outright that he doesn’t expect Johnson to fight the next election. Warned of a leadership election during the peak of winter cases while Johnson is “fighting the pandemic”, but seemed to concede it was somewhat inevitable.

Some of it is just Gale accepting political reality, but it’s been an impressively frank conversation.

[Torrain]

If you've lost Ally Pally...

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1473067440623996932

I definitely didn’t have “darts fans go full ‘let’s go Brandon’ on Boris” on my December bingo card.

At this point, I can only imagine he’s being kept around so the new PM doesn’t have to start in the middle of a COVID winter, and have their approvals immediately dragged down. Wouldn’t be surprised if the 1922 committee gets the required letters either as soon as winter passes, or the morning  after the local elections in May.

[Torrain]

I mean, in the last decade alone, we’ve had a woman PM, two largely irreligious PMs (Cameron, Johnson), a PM with Muslim & Jewish ancestry (Johnson), a twice-divorced PM (Johnson again). We’ve even had a PM who was born in America of all places (still Johnson).

The idea that picking a non-white man to replace Johnson (and the only cabinet member with a net-positive approval rating no less) would prompt more of a stir than that is frankly bizarre.

I’m not denying that a non-white PM would face new challenges, but if the Tory party can accept a woman leading it in the 1970s, I doubt it would resist a POC leader in 2022.

[Torrain]

should labour disavow blair and apologize for the 1997, 2001, 2005 victories due to iraq in order to solidify young bipoc and terf support

This take is so white hot it makes bronz look like an amateur

There’s a certain irony that this British thread keeps getting colonised by Americans who keep trying to impose their way of thinking onto our political framework.

Is this what it must have felt like to be a foreign subject of the Empire? Just guys like Bronz trying to tell you how your nation worked?

_{Disclaimer: this only applies to Bronz and gerritcole. Guys like Ishan are genuinely solid contributors.}

[Torrain]

Brilliant. This is why I could never be a civil servant.

https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1477560271694614538

Not to put on my Tory Leadership race tin-foil hat. But...

It feels interesting that the Times (of all papers) waited until the Christmas break was over (and normal politics and attention resumed) to post a story linking Truss to the sort of behavior that characterised the Tory sleaze narrative last year.

If we're on the verge of a race, with candidates gearing up for an intra-party brawl, this is exactly the sort of story I'd expect Team Sunak, Hunt etc to leak.

[Torrain]

Corbyn rumours running amok in the last 24 hours.

This the story about Corbyn considering creating his own spin-off party, right?

Feels a bit odd given that his first few elections were fought in the environment that created the Social-Democratic Party, and the last couple have been fought amidst the smoking remains of The Independent Group and the Lib Dems. Surely he has to realise by now that such movements are a lost cause?

Truly, I can see no way adding a fourth party to the British Left (fifth depending if you count the SNP) increases their political prospects, while the Tories have no real opposition on the Right. Maybe those 2017 crowds chanting his name just broke Corbyn, and he's desperate to front a party to get some of that old adulation back again.

Also... If he just wanted to burn the Labour Party, a new party would do that, but arguably not as much as him joining the Green Party (alongside Long-Bailey and a few others), then splitting the hard-left vote squarely between himself and Labour (while the mainstream left and soft-left mostly stay with Starmer).

It just feels bizarre.

_{Let alone him considering using his "Peace and Justice Movement" as the framework. Nothing would encapsulate the stereotype about Corbynite self-righteousness more than declaring themselves the political personification of peace and justice...}

[Torrain]

Johnson is at PMQs.
- Admits and apologised for attendance at the lockdown drinks.
- Asks for the investigation to be carried out before conclusions are drawn.
- Looks a little shaken if I’m honest

Starmer openly calling for Johnson’s resignation now.
- To which Johnson stumbles through a mess of an answer.

Edit (12.15)
- Starmer has used Johnson’s words against him again and again, especially concerning Hancock’s departure to try and make his position untenable. It’s pretty emotive for Starmer.
- Johnson can’t even get a full sentence out, he just sounds panicky, and gets shouted down by the opposition back-bench.

[Torrain]

Forgive a tiny bit of leadership election speculation, but…

Truss is sat right behind Johnson, alongside Raab, clearly playing the role of supporter.

Sunak is on the other side of the country, literally putting as much distance between himself and Boris as possible.

[Torrain]

More polling has emerged today, suggesting that Johnson presents a clear electoral threat to the Tories now:

From the Guardian

Almost seven out of 10 voters think Johnson's apology not sincere, poll suggests

An overnight poll has given Labour a 10-point lead over the Conservatives, their highest for eight years (see 9.40am), and there are some even worse findings in a poll out this morning from Focaldata.

Focaldata, which has shared the results with the Guardian and which is due to publish them later today, has been asking respondents about Boris Johnson. Here are the key findings.

Almost seven out of 10 voters (68%) think Johnson’s apology yesterday was not sincere, the poll suggests.

Keir Starmer has opened a huge lead over Johnson on the question of which leader is more trustworthy, the poll suggests. In April last year Johnson was ahead of Starmer (by 4 points - 38% to 34%). By mid December Starmer was well ahead (by 20 points - 44% to 24%). Since then the gap has got even larger; 51% say Starmer is more trustworthy, and only 16% say Johnson, giving Starmer a 35-point lead on this measure.

Starmer has also developed a clear lead over Johnson on who would make the best PM. In mid December Starmer had a four-point lead on this measure (38% to 34%). Now 40% of respondents say Starmer would make the best PM, and 30% Johnson.

Some 64% of voters think Johnson should resign, the poll suggests. And even amongst people who voted Tory in 2019, more think he should resign (46%) than think he should stay (43%).
Focaldata collected data from a nationally representative sample of 1,003 adults yesterday and today, and the results have been weighted by age, gender, region, education and 2019 voting.

[Torrain]

Local Tory campaigners in London have also started distancing themselves from Johnson.

I know this is mostly anecdotal evidence from a Guardian reporter, but thought it was interesting, as my prior has been that the Conservatives let Johnson hold on until May so he gets the blame for the local elections being tough.

However, if he becomes a total millstone around the party’s neck, it’s hard to see him lasting that long. There’s no point in losing dozens of additional councillors to Labour, providing them with a bench of viable candidates for the next few election cycles.

https://mobile.twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1481578792825012224?ref_src=tws...

https://mobile.twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1481581177467285507?ref_src=tws...

[Torrain]

(Full figures are Lab 313, Con 234, SNP 55, LD 24, Plaid 2, Green 1, Other 1 (Exmouth), so Labour just short of a majority.  Take with a pinch of salt.)

So enough for a small majority Lib-Lab coalition? That would be something…

Fascinating that, despite their decimation in 2015 they still remain such key players, particularly as an option for disaffected voters who want to protest the major party they typically support, while finding themselves incapable of voting for the other.

[Torrain]

So that Iain Duncan Smith defeated, Thatcher's seat going back to Labour, and Boris Johson losing his own seat. Starting to look like he'll stand down as an MP (though he probably wouldn't if he wasn't going to been Prime Minister anyway).

Johnson’s only sitting on a 7,000 vote majority (Owen Patterson had a majority of over 21,000), in an urban constituency in Greater London. If he stands down as MP as well as PM, and forces a by-election, it could be chaotic. The change in national polling alone between 2019 and now would likely cut that majority down to a sliver. Not to mention the demographics, the ongoing scandal, and the chance to ‘send the government a message.’

The narrative for the Tories (and the new PM) if Johnson’s seat were to flip Labour would be something to behold…

However - any by-election would be held on the old lines, which seem to be better in London for the Tories than the new boundaries, but still, it would be a far cry from the post-Cameron or Blair by-elections, where the party was able to just hand a safe seat over to a member of the party faithful.

[Torrain]

The working week is over, and MPs can escape back to their constituencies until Monday. As such, it feels like a good moment to review Boris' standing within the party, specifically the 1922 Committee.

54 letters of no-confidence (15% of all current Conservative MPs) are required to force a vote of confidence in Johnson. At present, the Telegraph estimates that 24 MPs have submitted letters thus far.

Exact estimates of letters submitted vary, from 20 in the Guardian, to 30 in the Daily Record. Given their closeness to the party, I'm putting some stock in the Telegraph's numbers, although given the seriousness with which the 1922 Committee takes their privacy, all these numbers could be a bit off. I'd imagine the various estimates come from rebels (probably either old May allies, or acting on behalf of the potential candidates) holding their own informal whip counts.

Returning from speculation to hard numbers, only 3 MPs have publicly confirmed submission of a letter:

• Sir Roger Gale (North Thanet)
• Douglas Ross (Moray)
• Andrew Bridgen (North West Leicester)

Unconditional calls for resignation have additionally come from several MPs (estimated to be among the letter-sending cohort), listed below:

• William Wragg (Hazel Grove)
• Caroline Nokes (Romsey and Southampton North)
• Anne Marie-Moss (Newton Abbot)

One interesting quirk -  Marie-Moss has revealed that she sent a letter to the 1922 Committee in the past month. However, as she had the whip withdrawn after voting with Labour on cutting VAT on fuel bills, her letter (submitted pre-suspension) is almost certainly invalid.

[Torrain]

It's a sign of the times that my reaction was 'well that's good but it could be higher.'

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1482442842437992450
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1482442710984368130

Woah.

Worth remembering the 1997 vote was:

Labour: 43%
Conservative: 30%
Lib Dem: 17%

And that the 2019 election was largely the reverse (Con 43%, Lab 32%, LD 7%)

While Labour may possibly be at a high water mark right now (subject to a post-scandal correction, and a new PM’s honeymoon period), it’s incredible to think what a change of political fortune this polling represents.

[Torrain]

Which of course is the big question mark that I as an outside observer have right now: When Johnson goes (he's gonna fall eventually, it's hard to survive long being underwater with your own base voters) and a successor cabinet comes in, will the situation return to respectable Tory leads, or will this be the turning point that Starmer needed to finally make his competent government pitch applicable and desirable? Its hard to imagine in the latter situation that the leads would remain this big, but it is imaginable that they persist and there becomes a "government in waiting" - Labour had poll leads for almost all of Major's five elected years as PM.

I think you're on the money with the Major comparison, and that the years surrounding the Thatcher-Major transition is probably a decent metaphor for the current situation, if Johnson is dethroned in the coming weeks. You have a Tory PM who's gone from being a proven vote winner to an outright political liability, with a number leadership candidates plotting in the corridors of Westminster.



As you can see from this polling average, Major's installation as PM in 1990 erased Labour's polling lead, but he failed to re-establish a clear Tory polling lead in the remainder of the parliamentary term. Aside from a several month period directly post-election, he'd trail Labour by ever-larger margins for the remainder of his premiership.

The only other two PMs to take over while their party was trailing by five or more points in the polls since were Gordon Brown and Johnson himself. (I'm discounting May because she was always leading in the polls, and inherited a healthly polling lead that she expanded and then collapsed - a totally different environment).

Brown (starting in 2007) initially followed a similar track to Major - briefly regaining the polling lead from the opposition, before he slumped permanently into second place. The polling average was notably unstable though, predicting everything from a close race to a Tory blowout (2008 financial crash says hi).

 

And finally, Johnson's 2019 appointment completely changed both the polling and political environment, taking the Tories from a virtual 4-way tie with Labour, the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party (it was a strange time - see the final UK EU Parliament election to get a sense of just how barmy), and lead to a steady rise that culminated with his December election result.



TLDR; There are a couple of different examples we can use to speculate about what political environment a Boris successor might inherit. But we should expect a brief but significant honeymoon period (likely accompanied by pledges to clear house, and the firing of unpopular ministers), followed by some uncertainty.