UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[TheTide]

The idea that either of them can continue in office is absurd. Both wrapped in scandal and incompetence and the entire country knows it. Then again the 1922 operation isn't as sharp as it should be.

[CumbrianLefty]

All things considered, Sunak hasn't had the greatest of fortnights.

[Alcibiades]

If this isn’t resignation material, what is? But we all know this government doesn’t adhere to any sort of conventional standards, and regards the ministerial code as a minor background annoyance.

[Coldstream]

Time to see what, if any, principles Tory MP’s have. Though the fact remains that there’s almost no one in the Tory Party who could take over and be popular with the public, which is the best point in his favour Johnson has.

[afleitch]

If this isn’t resignation material, what is? But we all know this government doesn’t adhere to any sort of conventional standards, and regards the ministerial code as a minor background annoyance.

Nothing is resignation material.

That's part of the problem in western democracies this past decade. Politicians know the press and public attention cycle moves very quickly. It'll add to Boris' and Rishi's problems but won't end their careers, at least until a general election.

[CumbrianLefty]

Of course if next month's elections are sufficiently bad, it could be sooner. Until the last few weeks I didn't think there was much chance of that, but a perfect storm might just now be brewing.

[Cassius]

CRIME WEEK

*Crime Parliamentary Term

[Coldstream]

On the doorstep, there doesn’t seem to be much support for the Tories - certainly seems to be a massive swing from last year when there was a lot of “well it’s not like anyone else would do better” going around. It doesn’t seem to be swinging directly to Labour (at least not most of it) but I think the Tories could be in for a beating this May just from their voters staying home. At the very least the turnout differentials won’t be as stark as they usually are.

[YL]

To no great surprise, it looks like Ukraine is going to be used as an excuse to not move against Johnson now.

[TheTide]

To no great surprise, it looks like Ukraine is going to be used as an excuse to not move against Johnson now.

There were three changes of Prime Minister across two World Wars. Laughable.

[Silent Hunter]

In two cases, the war wasn't going very well and in the third, it was pretty much over for GB residents.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To no great surprise, it looks like Ukraine is going to be used as an excuse to not move against Johnson now.

There were three changes of Prime Minister across two World Wars. Laughable.

The 1950 and 1951 General Elections were held during the Korean War.

[Silent Hunter]

Indeed. Although that was, like Ukraine is now, not a conflict threatening the existence of the UK. Like Mitch McConnell and a Supreme Court pick, the argument is incorrect, but they're going to use it anyway.

[Pericles]

All things considered, Sunak hasn't had the greatest of fortnights.

One person who it has gone perfectly for is now the most likely Prime Minister after the next general election, Keir Starmer.

[Pericles]

Really now, there is no way that keeping Boris and Rishi Sunak in office is not sending a giant "f**k you" to the British public. That is a surprisingly stupid move from a party that prizes itself above all on its ability to win general elections.

[Torrain]

It's the 'we can't change PM because of Ukraine' argument that gets me.

Has Johnson acted admirably on the international stage? Yes.
Has he developed a genuine rapport with Zelenskyy? Apparently so.

But the war in Ukraine will likely be measured in months, or even years, rather than weeks. Will the Conservatives be making this same argument in May 2024? Arguing that Johnson cannot be removed because of the international situation just doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

We're a nation that changed Prime Ministers at key moments during both World Wars! We changed PMs during strike action that crippled the nation. We changed PMs amidst international financial crises.

So if the public finds Johnson wanting, then don't tell us that only his "Churchillian leadership" can save us. Because history is littered with examples of this country turfing out a PM when they were found wanting.

[Blair]

It’s interesting to note the tweeted defences from Tory MPs who are loyalists- none of them are trying to defend it and instead are trying to pivot to Ukraine.

The funniest ones are those who say ‘he’s focused on the cost of living crisis’… which reminds people just how little the Government has done.

The thing that would worry me the most is the claim they can’t remove him because no-one better is in the wings, or because people hate Truss…. But this is very similar to what was said in 2009 about Brown.

[Silent Hunter]

"We can't change leader now!" is a common refrain at election time. Not sure if Obama used it in 2012, but it was definitely a Bush talking point in 2004.

[Torrain]

To be fair, removing Johnson before the locals would be absolute chaos for the party, so politically I can see why they're trying to keep their heads down.

But Sunak and Johnson both said in the Commons that they hadn't attended parties or been privy to rule-breaking. If the parliamentary party just shrugs this off, then it would appear that there really are little-to-no checks and balances in the system at all.

Just frustrated that we're back to the same cycle - Johnson releases a mealey-mouthed statement, Nadine Dorries and Michael Fabricant embarrass themselves in a race to publicly exonerate him, the rest of the party stays quiet for 72 hours, then tries to shame any journalist still talking about it.

Edit: apparently Johnson has refused to rule out receiving further fines for additional parties during the period under investigation. So this whole thing could just go round in circles for weeks, while the Met slowly works through it's backlog.

[Blair]

To be fair, removing Johnson before the locals would be absolute chaos for the party, so politically I can see why they're trying to keep their heads down.

But Sunak and Johnson both said in the Commons that they hadn't attended parties or been privy to rule-breaking. If the parliamentary party just shrugs this off, then it would appear that there really are little-to-no checks and balances in the system at all.

Just frustrated that we're back to the same cycle - Johnson releases a mealey-mouthed statement, Nadine Dorries and Michael Fabricant embarrass themselves in a race to publicly exonerate him, the rest of the party stays quiet for 72 hours, then tries to shame any journalist still talking about it.

Edit: apparently Johnson has refused to rule out receiving further fines for additional parties during the period under investigation. So this whole thing could just go round in circles for weeks, while the Met slowly works through it's backlog.

It was hilarious to see Fabricant was the only one willing to defend the PM on TV and tried to claim that nurses and teachers were drinking in their staff rooms.

[Blair]

It is however fundamentally depressing.

The cult of Boris is driving this. Nothing more.

[Torrain]

It is however fundamentally depressing.

The cult of Boris is driving this. Nothing more.

Yeah, Fabricant's antics are laughable, but the conditions that created them, and the misplaced loyalty required to make a man in his 70s waste day after day defending a chump like Boris, is just draining.

The only satisfying outcome today could provide would be Sunak retaliating against Johnson's briefing against him, and resigning 'on principle', to try and force the PM to spend the next week trying to explain why Allegra Stratton, his entire inner circle, and his Chancellor have had to leave office for their missteps, but he's allowed to stay.

[Torrain]

Snap polls released this evening:




As ever, the problem is the breakdown. Only 1 in 3 Conservative voters favour Johnson's removal, which means mustering the required pressure on backbenchers would be a significant challenge. Really feels like we're back to the first round of partygate takes: "wait for the local elections, and see what panicked swing-seat MPs do on the morning of May 6th".

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1513949094829506562?s=20&t=lcpTF6k4...

Another snap poll, ignore the messenger, but the underlying data and pollster are fine.

Really feels like we're back to the first round of partygate takes: "wait for the local elections, and see what panicked swing-seat MPs do on the morning of May 6th".

Watching you guys from afar, it certainly appears like this will be the case. The Boris loyalists even have their excuses ready. However, unlike back then, the locals are only a month away and it will probably be a reversal of the past few year's local results, with Labour gaining a large net number even though the 2018 councils were already rather good. Its hard to imagine seeing things not somehow change if the Tories get smacked hard by the electorate.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tbh quite a few Tory voters are likely those convinced by the Ukraine thing - some of them may well think the PM should resign in due course, but don't think it should be *now*.