UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

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A couple of observations this morning from Tony Diver, Telegraph political correspondent. He broke the story about the party on the eve of the DofE’s funeral, so he’s got at least some credibility as a source:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1482837422375321605
https://mobile.twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1482840352109248513

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https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1483492018907234305

And another comes forward - the first 2019 MP to jump ship.

Notable that the MP in question, Christian Wakeford, represents Bury South, the 10th most marginal seat in the country (majority of 402).* Perhaps the first truly endangered MP to nail his colours to the mast.

I was literally about to make a post agreeing with Blair's point that marginal MPs have the least reason to support Boris, and then Wakeford makes the point for me...

Also given that Wakeford submitted last week, I have to wonder whether this meeting was truly a 'discussion' about the future, or just him flat-out lobbying against Boris. If Hunt, Sunak, Truss etc have recreated MPs to start whipping votes, surely this is what it would look like?

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What do we think happens next if the letters come in, but Johnson fairly narrowly wins the confidence vote?  (Say about 200 to 160.)

Well for a start, the odds of the Scottish Tories formally distancing themselves from the national party and rebranding simply as “the Conservative and Unionist Party” jumps by at least 20%.

Honestly, I don’t know where the party would go from there. Without Parliamentary accountability, it could all get a bit too GOP for my liking. At minimum I’d expect a couple of defections (from someone like Caroline Noakes for example).

But I currently think that if the 54-letter threshold is reached, he’s essentially done for. The confidence ballot (post-submission of the 54 letters) is secret, so it’s a lot harder for the whips to bully members or exact revenge. And just having to hold a confidence vote for a PM who won a landslide a mere two years ago is such an embarrassment that I think they’ll just push him out the door.

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What do we think happens next if the letters come in, but Johnson fairly narrowly wins the confidence vote?  (Say about 200 to 160.)

Well for a start, the chance of the Scottish Tories formally distancing themselves from the national party and rebranding simply as “the Conservative and Unionist Party” jump by at least 20%.

Honestly, I don’t know where the party would go from there. Without Parliamentary accountability, it could all get a bit too GOP for my liking. At minimum I’d expect a couple of defections (from someone like Caroline Noakes for example).

But I currently think that if the 54-letter threshold is reached, he’s essentially done for. The confidence ballot (post-submission of the 54 letters) is secret, so it’s a lot harder for the whips to bully members or exact revenge. And just having to hold a confidence vote for a PM who won a landslide a mere two years ago is such an embarrassment that I think they’ll just push him out the door.

Thatcher won a bigger landslide in 1987 than Johnson!

Exactly! And that’s why he’ll go. The Conservative sense of self-preservation is legendary - and Boris poses a greater electoral threat than the opposition right now, just as Thatcher did in ‘90.

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Regardless of the exact details of the situation, the one thing we can be sure of is that PMQs is going to be an absolute riot* tomorrow.



_{*Whether that ends up meaning “fun”, “a raucous mess”, or “Angela Rayner literally leaps over the benches, leading a scrum of MPs to headbutt Boris while screaming ‘the North never forgets!’” is entirely up to you.}

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Christian Wakeford (Conservative MP for Bury South) has defected to the Labour Party. One of those who had gone public about sending in a letter.

With an official announcement coming literally 5 minutes before PMQs too. Brutal day for Johnson.

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PMQs thoughts;

Wakeford sitting directly behind Starmer, (the guy in the Union flag mask, for those playing the home game).

Johnson seems have got the entire Tory front bench to pitch up this week (sans Liz Truss, who’s on a plane to Australia, and presumably breathing a sigh of relief). Sunak is awkwardly nodding along, but looks like he wants to be beamed out of the chamber.

Johnson less chaotic and more focused this week, but still being outclassed by Starmer, to my mind at less.

Also, not to be nepotistic, but Wendy Chamberlain, my hometown MP got the first jab in, which is fun.

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David Davis (former Brexit Secretary and former Boris ally), has caused a raucous, comparing Johnson to Neville Chamberlain and demanding he resign.

Edit: more specifically, he quoted the Norway debate, taking Conservative MP Leo Amery’s demand for Chamberlain’s recusal, and applying it to Johnson:

"You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. In the name of God, go!"

Which is in itself a reference to Cromwell’s dismissal of the Rump Parliament.

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I’ll keep this brief - because it stinks of spin.

But a senior Labour source keeps talking about there being another 5 Red Wall Tories being effectively courted for defection, fancifully described as “Operation Domino”. The story is being shopped to journalists at the Telegraph, Sky News, the Independent and ITV.

Appreciate that I was the guy who engaged unironically with the “Corbyn is setting up his own party!” spin a week ago. Mea culpa. But this felt at least worth a mention, if only because it’s a fascinating bit of bluster.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1484107937132032001

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So when is Gray's report actually coming out? It was going to be today, according to some.

Johnson mumbled “next week” at PMQs, and this has been parroted by the Telegraph and Independent in the days since. There’s no official date yet, from what I can see, just a vague feeling it might happen by Wednesday.

(Most UK news outlets now have a “When will the Gray Report be released?” page, but it’s basically got the same info as this post, just spaced out over four paragraphs, with ads between each.)

If it does release on Mon or Tues, it could set us up for a third week of raucous PMQs. Although whether that hurts or helps Boris at this point is hard to see.

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Wakeford has clarified his previous comments - and named Gavin Williamson, then-Education Secretary, as the threatening MP. The vote in question was apparently on the Marcus Rashford-backed school meals initiative, which the Conservatives quashed over much protest in 2020.

Given the alleged threat related directly to the building (and presumed catchment areas) of state high schools, it has a vague air of plausibility about it.

Full story in the Times (behind the pay wall, unfortunately)

If true, could be quite damaging, and on a lighter note, reframes this slightly cringe photo as some kind of bizarre foreshadowing:


The Mirror don’t even need to photoshop together a mock-up for tomorrow’s front page - Williamson has given them the perfect shot.

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Apologies for the double-post. But there’s a second Conservative Whip story breaking tonight:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1484975758707671047

No public response from No.10, but frantic denials have been sent out to political correspondents (Rob Powell from Sky News quotes one No.10 source as calling it “categorically untrue”)

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https://twitter.com/Mark_Spencer/status/1485020127141806081?t=_y_eK3tqXK7bEur0ivCXFw&s=19
Bold move from someone - but who?

So what’s the next move? Spencer resigns as Chief Whip and the Government pretends that fixes the apparent issues with the whipping system? Maybe he’s seen the writing on the wall, knows his authority is gone, and is planning to jump on this grenade to spare the government?

The problem is though… While it might relieve pressure for a day or two, Johnson will require a trustworthy whip when the next wave of bad news arrives, presumably mid-week (be it the Gray Report, or another round of whip allegations).

Maybe Spencer is taking responsibility (and protecting junior whips) because he’s one of the few people Johnson has to rely on, and believes he is temporarily unfireable?

This entire situation has become so internecine that I’m struggling to keep track of who is part of which faction, and which alliances have been former/broken over the past week.

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We’re getting calls for a probe into the Nus Ghani situation, and now, by extension, Mark Spencer himself, from the Education Secretary:

https://mobile.twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1484993351619338241

Sentiment is being echoed by those Conservative MPs (or their staffs) who are still active online at this hour (including Aaron Bell).

Not sure whether this changes the dynamics - but adds another line to the ‘Conservative in-fighting’ narrative.

Is nice to hear Zahawi stand up for Ghani - let’s see if the party listens. Whatever happened, this could do with some scrutiny.

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Will be fascinated to see just how hard the Gray Report goes - or, if as initially thought, it ends up as just a finger wagging.

Good rundown of the current situation from the Sunday Times (soft paywall, apologies, see summary below)

Key points:

• Initial Cabinet consensus was that report would be a whitewash (Gray has a history of going to bat for scandal-hit colleagues, notably the late Sir Jeremy Haywood, former Cabinet Secretary, and apparently is uncomfortable with the thought of an unelected figure bringing down elected politicians) 
• But now, given that she’s been open to expanding the investigation into social events held in the No. 10 flat, and her ongoing discussions with Scotland Yard, the mood has shifted.
•   The Times has quoted MPs on background suggesting that the level of concern about the report has risen - with few-to-none expecting a clean exoneration for Johnson in the past few days.
• Downing Street expect to get a copy of report early on Tues or Wed, with a public release later in the day.
• Speaker’s Office seem to be prepared to pass any MPs complaints about Johnson’s behaviour contained on the report onto the Privileges Committee (chaired by Chris Bryant, but with a 4-3 Tory-Opposition split, along with 7 lay individuals who don’t serve in the Commons.)
• Whatever is contained in the report, Johnson will face calls from MPs to refer himself to his ethics advisor - which he’s unlikely to go for, apparently

It should be noted - for balance, that the Times characterisation of Gray as a soft touch on Downing Street figures has been refuted previously, such as in this Guardian article exploring her role in the downfall of Deputy PM Damien Green - writing the scathing report that revealed Green’s use of pornography on government machines, and accused him of sexual harassment after seeming the account of his accuser “plausible”, wording that Gray fought for.

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https://twitter.com/Nus_Ghani/status/1485259972430774274


Which followed this little exchange. Can someone just lock Fabricant in a cupboard until Boris is forced out? The man's a national embarrassment at this point.

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1485242385768529921

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I know they have some fundamental differences but it makes zero sense that Labour and LibDems don’t merge. This isn’t the 80’s or 90’s or even the 00’s … it should be done. I wonder how many seats would flip if they had a combined vote.

_{Quick one paragraph response, because everyone deserves a good-faith answer every now and again:
Lib Dems can win seats in areas that would never vote Labour (Tory-Lib Dem marginals include affluent London seats like Richmond Park, and suburban university seats like Oxford West), making them a quiet asset to Labour, either in reducing the number of Tory MPs, or as a possible coalition partner (see the late 70s). Additionally, Labour is already such a big tent, full of warring factions, that there's no way they could encompass the Lib Dem's centrist vibes (even if the Lib-Dems wanted a merger, which they don't) without bleeding the left-wing portion of their base dry, probably leading to an equivalent small party to their left, instead of their right.}

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I can see a LibDem voter not voting Labour. But why would a Labour voter rather go Tory than LibDem?

Another question - did that dynamic change under New Labour? Didn’t New Labour in the Blair years kind of invade the center ground territory that LibDems had? Weren’t LibDems to the left of Labour at some points

The Lib Dems were staunchly against the Iraq War, in contrast to the main two parties, whose leaders were broadly supportive, and whose members were split. Their opposition to both Labour’s foreign policy, and the Conservatives general disorder (they were burning through leaders every few years and had scarce few MPs) helped them to carve out a distinct position, and serve as a protest vote in by-elections for typically safe seats for both parties.

If you want a rundown of the party’s history, especially in the past 20 years, they’ve published a short essay on the subject - which will hopefully answer most of your Lib Dem questions. It’s a fairly frank view of the party, shortcomings included, but obviously a tad biased: https://www.libdems.org.uk/history

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https://mobile.twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1485612894431625222?ref_src=tw...

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https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1485677107556540424

If this is f[inks]ing true...

Edit: beaten to the punch by Filuwaúrdjan - same ITV story.

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Presented with as little comment as possible:

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1241348429546217475

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I have no words about Nadine Dorries that I could post unmoderated on this site.

I could , however, write paragraphs about the pain and indignity faced by members of my own family during the first two lockdowns, particularly my aunt, who had scarce opportunity to see her brothers and mother as she entered the last months of her life.

But that wouldn't be appropriate here - given the sacrifices that everyone made, I'd just be preaching to the choir. All I will say is that I'm bl**dy furious. Somehow, this is the Downing Street event that tipped me over the edge - and I'm just incensed.

I'm off to write a sternly worded letter to my MP - so that I don't spend the evening yelling into the void.

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"Let them eat cake" - Carrie Johnston, 2020.

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The only silver lining to this travesty of a story is that Gray already seems to know about it, and it won't delay the report any further.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1485696728691007494

That being said, if this story is true, I'm inclined to suggest we shouldn't wait for the Gray report. Pretty sure we've passed the state of 'reasonable doubt' at this point.

With this event, No. 10 has finally conceded the existence of an explicit party in Downing Street, one with the PM in attendance no less, and including non-political personnel, such as Carrie Johnson, and their interior designer. There really is nowhere left for the excuses to go.

Ironically, I'm reminded of a US political anecdote. When everyone but Nixon realised he was doomed, back in 1974, Barry Goldwater and Republican leaders in both houses of Congress travelled to the White House, and made him seem sense. If ever there was a moment for the remaining grandees of the Tory party to attempt such a stunt - it should be tonight.