UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Torrain]

There was some confusion over whether the Gray investigation would be paused by this morning’s announcement from the Met.

The relevant passage: "...if during the course of the work any evidence emerges of behaviour that is potentially a criminal offence, the matter will be referred to the police and the Cabinet Office’s work may be paused."

This has now been cleared up.

https://mobile.twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1485922076523384834

It won’t however be published until the investigation has concluded - kicking the football several weeks into the future.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Peston/status/1485925622782246912

[Torrain]

Labour have posed an Urgent Question to the Government, concerning the investigation.

A statement to the Commons on the matter, from a government spokesman, is expected around 1pm.

No news yet on which poor soul will be the one forced to issue the statement and face down the Opposition.

[Torrain]

Do read the thread above - I watched the exchange live, and it was every bit as out-of-touch and defensive as it sounds.

Out in the electorate however, it appears to be a rather different story - if today’s YouGov numbers are anything to go by:

 

Source: https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/1485985006472376322?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[Torrain]

Politics Home: Boris Johnson Is Urgently Rallying Support From MPs As Bombshell Parties Report Looms

The Prime Minister spent several hours today meeting with wavering MPs in his office as he tried to see off potential backlash to the publication of Sue Gray’s party inquiry.

It is understood that Boris Johnson invited a number of Tory MPs to his Parliamentary office today who were wavering in their support of their leader, including several less rebellious MPs that may seem “surprising”.

MPs have apparently been in and out of his office all day, and that those invited are a “real mixture” of the Tory cohort, sources told PoliticsHome.

They said Johnson met with 2019-intake MPs this morning, before meeting with other rebel MPs across the afternoon and into the evening.

The article goes on to note that the effort is being lead by Chris Heaton-Harris, Nigel Adams and Chris Pincher - all of whom are ex-whips. No mention of the current whip team, which is odd.

Other members getting a mention as on Team Boris are various PPS, and ministers. The only named minister is Conor Burns, who you'll recognise as the member from the previous post, the master of birthday party spin. If Mr "Ambushed with a Cake" is the biggest name getting a mention, things could be a lot worse than Boris is willing to admit.

The article also includes a few choice quotes from Tory MPs:

"There has been lots of ‘the Prime Minister has always felt you have been overlooked’ and all the usual sh*t," one MP who had been contacted said.

"What's happened is that some middling, senior — and an awful lot of junior members — are rallying to the Prime Minister's banner and trying to make sure that he gets through this, so that we can carry on and do what we were elected to do,” a Tory MP told PoliticsHome.

“The majority (though) are probably starting to think that they don’t want to tie themselves to a sinking ship, and are hanging all hope on Sue Gray’s report being a damp squib, which is looking more and more unlikely.”

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1486111189541265408?s=20

Does Rees-Mogg think we don’t remember how his boss got his job in the first place?

Pretty sure JRM actually sent one of the deciding 1992 letters that led May to resign, rather than face another leadership challenge.

Such a farce.

[Torrain]

It also seems like a very poor time to make thinly-veiled threats to the Red Wall MPs, attempting to use their constituencies and small majorities against them.

Given the precedent of Christian Wakeford and the whipping scandal - does JRM not realise the optics and outcomes of this are potentially awful?

Whatever poise he tries to speak with, these comments really read like the last-minute scrambling of a politician who knows he might be out of a job soon. Whoever replaces Johnson, whether that be next week or next year, I doubt they’ll be offering a ministry to JRM.

[Torrain]

It also seems like a very poor time to make thinly-veiled threats to the Red Wall MPs, attempting to use their constituencies and small majorities against them.

Given the precedent of Christian Wakeford and the whipping scandal - does JRM not realise the optics and outcomes of this are potentially awful?

Whatever poise he tries to speak with, these comments really read like the last-minute scrambling of a politician who knows he might be out of a job soon. Whoever replaces Johnson, whether that be next week or next year, I doubt they’ll be offering a ministry to JRM.

Let's do a little exercise, on the basis of this. The future prospects of each cabinet member under the next Prime Minister, assuming that scenario isn't too far away.

Raab - Uninspiring, might be offered something but might choose to call it quits.
Truss - Will likely be there regardless of whether she is the actual leader. If she isn't then she could move to the Treasury.
Sunak - Could move to the Foreign Office if he isn't the leader. Will stay in cabinet unless there's a particularly nasty leadership election in which he doesn't win.
Patel - Gone or demoted.
Wallace - Relatively competent. If gone then it will be on his own accord, although his Boris loyalism could come into play.
Gove - Will be in the cabinet until the end of this government, whenever that may be. Is due one of the four Great Offices.
Javid - Difficult to call. I would guess a return to the Home Office.
Barclay - Generic cutout. Who cares, but may stay.
Kwarteng - One of the drossier members. Could stay in a lesser role.
Sharma - Will probably stay.
Trevelyan - Not much profile. Not sure really.
Coffey - Memeish. Drossy. Will probably go to the backbench.
Zahawi - Possibly a Great Office contender.
Eustice - Useless. Probably out.
Shapps - Hilariously opportunistic and careerist, even by the standards of this government. Could continue to be a clogging member.
Lewis - One of those eternal mid-ranking cabinet members, so probably remains.
Jack - Scottish Secretary, not many alternatives.
Hart - Welsh Secretary, not many alternatives.
Evans - Who cares.
Dorries - Certain to be out. The Diane Abbott of this government.
Dowden - Probably stays in some role or another.

And yes, JRM goes. Not officially a member of the cabinet.

Agree with a lot of this.
- Patel, JRM and Dorries are doomed, Raab probably too.
- Sunak has be in the inner circle (PM, Great Office), unless he’s lost a bitter contest
- Truss is probably too big to fail right now. I don’t think she’ll be PM right now, but could see her be be given a high profile, but tough job (Home Secretary is plausible) to keep her busy, and away from plotting, although her primary interests are heavily in the international sphere, so she might try and stay put.
- Zahawi is well-liked, so unless he’s backed the wrong horse, he’s feels like a shoo-in for a big job (FCO, Home, or Health if he’s unlucky)
- I do think we could end up with a different Scotland Secretary, if one of the other Scottish Tories helps the new PM whip votes in a leadership campaign. Andrew Bowie, for instance, is a good soldier, defends the government where he has to, but has been distancing himself from Boris. Will face a tough re-elect campaign in ‘24, but might want ministerial opportunity while he has the chance…
- Javid depends entirely on which horse he backs, methinks. Could be sent packing, or allowed to remain in post (poor guy).

Haven’t had enough time to consider the rest, but given how fast Johnson has turfed through ministers, I don’t feel too guilty about my unfamiliarity with the B-Team. On that note, will be interested to see whether May and Early Boris (pre-COVID) alumni feature in his takedown and rise of the successor. The combination of previous ministerial experience (even junior), and civil-war loyalty during party spats typically leads a savvy MP back into the cabinet, so will be keeping an eye on that faction.

[Torrain]

Johnson’s prepped line about Starmer for PMQs, “He’s a lawyer not a leader!” seems poorly timed, given he may need one, and certainly may be facing some shortly.

It also plays to Starmer’s biography and assets, letting Labour run lines about “prosecuting the case against the government”. 

[Torrain]

Johnson’s prepped line about Starmer for PMQs, “He’s a lawyer not a leader!” seems poorly timed, given he may need one, and certainly may be facing some shortly.

It also plays to Starmer’s biography and assets, letting Labour run lines about “prosecuting the case against the government”.  

"I would prefer to be led by a lawyer than a liar, will he resign?" - Lloyd Russell-Moyle, Labour MP

Aye - they kind of set themselves up for that kind of line.

Maybe the speechwriters have started jumping ship too?/s

[Torrain]

   

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForUK/status/1486353871060586499?s=20

Why do even milequoast Labour party figures seem to be in love with the communist revolutionary aesthetic?

Hey - even Tony Blair used to join in when they sang The Red Flag at party conference (before he quietly locked all copies of the songsheet in the cupboard for a couple of years). Some aesthetics of the early labour movement seem to just be ingrained in the party.

And you’ll find that even most of the centrists in the party were pretty hardline as students (check out the early 20s activities of Peter Mandelson, who joined the Communist Youth League and even attended Soviet-affiliated youth festivals in Havana. Then he was elected as a councillor, became disillusioned with the realities of governing under 70s Labour and started drifting rightwards), so the aesthetics seem to have been part of the initial draw to politics for some.

Edit: Also remember that when the US was still recovering from the Red Scare, some Labour MPs were taking trips to Moscow to burnish their credentials with hardline members of the party base. It’s a very different dynamic.

[Torrain]

Nadhim Zahawi, Education Secretary, Tory rising star, and rumoured leadership hopeful has been implicated in the Greensill scandal, according to the Financial Times:

https://www.ft.com/content/fe8c33e7-a846-4f98-ab33-68b580c6896f

On October 5 2020, Gupta sent a letter to Zahawi, a Conservative politician who at the time was a minister in the business department (BEIS), thanking him for his “support” helping Greensill secure the loans.

“Since you were personally instrumental in getting the BBB’s approval for Greensill Capital to provide financial assistance under the CLBILS programme, it would be very fitting if you could join us to mark this special moment that provides relief to thousands of workers,” Gupta wrote to Zahawi, inviting him to a “small gathering” at his company’s Rotherham steelworks.

[Torrain]

It’s amazing that the Met’s position appears to have evolved from:

“We couldn’t possible investigate” to “We can cooperate and work alongside the internal inquiry” to “We alone can be allowed to get the credit for the investigation.”

Honestly, at this point I’d barely be surprised if the Gray Report leaks out one line at a time over the course of two months, with crime and policing correspondents who barely touch politics but have decent police sources, ‘mysteriously’ getting Westminster scoops, as the Met leaks it’s way through this mess.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1487007271032967169

Guess it’s good news for Labour though - the Sword of Damocles hangs over Johnson’s head for weeks, in the run up to the local elections, while Conservative MPs fracture and factionalise over what to do.

A drawn out, leak-filled investigation is politically good for the opposition, but probably not best for the country, especially given how paralysed the government has been in recent weeks.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1487141693811998724
Context: Gye is political editor for the Independent.

Tbh - if true, this is not as bad as it could have been. Leaving the report largely intact, with the odd section scored out is better than what was being floated over the past 72 hours (i.e. rewriting the report to exclude the conclusions).

Additionally, allowing publication of the unredacted report at the end of the Met investigation is unambiguously good.

It's not going to be great - and I expect social media to scream 'cover-up' for the next few weeks whatever is in the report. But it's a whole lot better than delaying the Gray report entirely, and leaving the country 100% in limbo, while the Met stumbles from one controversy to the next.

I'd also warrant that this is a climbdown from the Met, after the fierce pushback  they received today from legal figures, including at least one former Head of Public Prosecutions.

[Torrain]

I was nicked by the Met once in the Houses of Parliament.
Fun times.

Was it warranted, or a classic Met blunder?

[Torrain]

Boris could set off nukes on a spice world and they wouldn't act.

Who is labours muaddib

“I must not fear. Fear is the vote-killer”

[Torrain]

Cummings continues his crusade:

Guardian: Dominic Cummings says it is his ‘duty to get rid’ of Boris Johnson
Dominic Cummings has said it is his “duty to get rid” of Boris Johnson as prime minister, describing it as “sort of like fixing the drains”.

The prime minister’s former chief adviser called his former boss a “complete f**kwit” whose only preoccupations were “Big Ben’s bongs” and “looking at maps” to “order the building of things” in his honour.

Cummings, who has sent evidence to the Cabinet Office inquiry led by Sue Gray, said it was imperative Johnson was removed from office. Speaking to New York magazine, he called it “an unpleasant but necessary job” and said it was legitimate to remove a prime minister who had won a big election victory if they were not up to the job.

It is irrational of me to think that this kind of public statement does his cause more harm than good? As much as it earns him Twitter followers, it just feels like he's giving ammunition to loyalist Conservative MPs to discredit evidence in the Gray Report - given that he's hardly an impartial witness.

While that should not cast doubt on the broad contents of the report, it still provides the sort of political opening for others that Cummings himself has been so apt at exploiting in the past (see Turkey and the EU in the referendum, Corbyn's conga-line of mini-controversies for the 2019 election etc).

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1487910893698617348

[Torrain]

Disappointing that patients would be put at risk and that there are doctors stupid enough not to get vaccinated. Given how long the UK vaccine rollout has been going for, this should have been implemented months ago. It is also nonsense that it would lead to a shortage, the vast vast majority just comply with outright mandates. Public health just doesn't matter at all compared to Boris Johnson's job in this government, hopefully Britain gets lucky and avoids much damage from those choices.

I’m in two minds about the climb down.

Personally, I’m fully supportive of the vaccine program. I’m triple-jabbed, work in virology, and have no time for vaccine conspiracies. Current research suggests that even when infected, the vaccinated shed less virus and handle higher viral titers better. And in the long term, it may be untenable to employ an anti-scientific workforce who may refuse to endorse vital new treatments for their patients, based on the opinions of Joe Rogan.

However - the NHS is, as a rule, under pressure. More so than ever right now. A government threatening to push out NHS staff (who have more political capital than they’ve had in decades) was always going to be an uphill battle. And given this government has undermined its credibility through repeated u-turns on major policy, it’s no wonder opposed groups like the Royal College of Nursing knew they could put up an organised opposition against the policy.

Mandates have been quite effective at driving vaccine uptake in some jurisdictions (especially in our continental neighbours), but as this government loses its moral authority, such measures have become less effective. This may have been the wrong policy for the right reasons.

In essence, I think this whole situation is a regrettable, but inevitable one in the current climate.

[Torrain]

Johnson has the redacted Grey Report

https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1488109380965117955

Edit: Johnson now scheduled to make Commons statement on the report at 15.30.

Edit 2: Gray Report (or ‘update on her investigation’ to use Gray’s more cautious language) will be released around 14.30

[Torrain]

One of the few new pieces of info in the Gray Report is discussion of *two* parties occurring in Downing Street on November 13th 2020 - the day Cummings was fired. Both under Met investigation.

There have been rumours about Carrie Johnson’s impromptu celebration of Cummings departure for a while now, but this is the first confirmation. She issued a formal denial that any event happened that day as recently as yesterday, when her spokesperson sent a statement to the Mail on Sunday. 

The PM made this statement to the House about Nov 13, back in December:

[Torrain]

May really went for the jugular. Bet that was cathartic - given their shared history.

Ian Blackford thrown out of the House for stating that Johnson has lied to MPs.

Andrew Mitchell (of PlebGate fame), has just stood up and stated that he has no confidence in Johnson, for the first time.

[Torrain]

Mark Harper, Tory MP (and head of the lockdown-sceptical COVID Recovery Group), restates and reinforces Diane Abbott’s question - will the Gray Report be published in full when the Met is done. Harper is hardly a centrist - if he’s criticising Johnson (and siding with Abbott of all members!), there’s obviously some disquiet in the party.

Julian Lewis, another Conservative, has joined him in the past minute to reinforce calls for Johnson to release the full report. Said that he was simply repeating words sent from Johnson’s whips over the past few days.

[Torrain]

Steve Baker, Conservative MP for Wycombe makes a pretty direct point about lockdown’s impact on mental health. Poor guy sounds on the verge of tears. There’s a righteous indignation coming from the Tory backbenches today.

Acompanied by yet more Conservatives calling for the full release of the Gray Report. This feels like a direct attempt to undermine no. 10’s line at this point.

[Torrain]

Aaron Bell, another Conservative, gives an account of attending his grandmother’s funeral during lockdown, and how a beloved local figure could have less than 10 people come out to honour her.

His question to Johnson is “does the PM believes he (Bell) is a fool” for following the guidelines.

A week ago, he refused to confirm whether he had sent a letter to the 1922 committee. He’s certainly come off the fence. It’s worth noting because again, you can hear the emotion in his voice.

The next Tory to rise becomes the 4th Tory to call for the full release of the report.