UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

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Johnson is now in a meeting he organised for all 359 Conservative MPs.

So far, it seems to be going, well...

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1488222015484006414?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

Tbh, I think this could be the crunch moment for Partygate. If the rebels can organise over the coming 48 hours, behind members like Mitchell, Davis, May etc, they should have the momentum to force a vote. If Johnson survives today's bloodbath in the Commons, he could be around until the Local Elections, haemorrhaging public support with every Met leak, every government resignation, every scathing editorial. If the backbenches are going to act, this feels like the moment.

[Torrain]

Johnson is now in a meeting he organised for all 359 Conservative MPs.

Davies

Which Davies is this? I tuned out of the debate. Philip? David TC is still a whip, so not him.

Ah, my bad, I was referring to David Davis, (after his PMQs statement last week). I always forget there's no 'e' in his surname.

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Initial reports from Johnson's meeting with the parliamentary party don't sound too encouraging:

Laura Kuenssberg: "MPs at meeting with PM tonight says he stressed to them he took this mess seriously due to his own brush with Covid, agreed to publish full report after Harper's intervention, said Lynton Crosby will be advising him again + said he delayed conversation with Putin to talk to them"

Peston: So will they sack him? “Not yet. Nothing that happened today has really moved dial”. His future will be determined by whether Cressida Dick and the Met Police decide he broke the Covid laws

Anushka Asthana (ITV deputy political editor): An MP who is critical of the PM, comes out of the meeting with him and says “they are f***ing deluded… there is no way we are getting 54 letters”.

As ever though, this is all second-hand, so will be waiting before drawing serious conclusions. Everyone in that meeting has their own agenda and spin, but if this is the prevailing narrative, then it suggests tomorrow could be disappointing.

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Is there much precedent for a former PM standing up and sticking the knife into their same-party successor, like we just saw?  I'm sure Heath would have liked to do it to Maggie.

That depends on how you view Thatcher’s actions from the Commons, and then the Lords in the Major years…

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So, two pieces of news on partygate today.

Firstly - spokespeople for No. 10 spent the morning refusing to say whether they would reveal which individuals were fined under the Met investigation. This was met with a swift and decisive backlash, and has now prompted a classic Downing Street u-turn, with them now saying that they ‘hypothetically would’, per the Guardian.

Secondly, we’ve got another Conservative MP who’s gone public with his submission of a 1922 committee letter. As ever, it remains impossible to really get a sense of the number of letters sent (other than a general sense from backbenchers that Boris is likely safe for the moment, even if the long-term is unstable).

https://mobile.twitter.com/peter_aldous/status/1488538532926873614

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This evening the Telegraph are reporting that they have evidence Johnson was present at the November 13th, 2020 event at the Downing Street flat.

Particularly brazen not just because Boris and Carrie were boozily celebrating Cummings' departure, but because it occurred as Tier 3 restrictions were reintroduced in London, preventing socialising outside small 'social bubbles', as part of the national lockdown.

It's one of the events under Met investigation, and the very existence of the gathering was being denied by both Mr and Mrs Johnson until this week.

The mind boggles at how they thought this would never come out. I guess they just thought they were above accountability for it. It's just exhausting.

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Obvious disclaimer that this comes from an opposition MP.
But it looks like the ‘Levelling Up’ agenda Johnson announced today is mostly just Johnson copy-pasting Theresa May’s ‘Industrial Strategy’ and claiming it’s his own homework.

https://mobile.twitter.com/darrenpjones/status/1488626405361471498?ref_src=twsrc...

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Looks like Stormont may collapse again today.

The rules of the Northern Ireland Assembly are pretty arcane, and are designed to balance power pretty closely between the two largest parties (the language gets changed every now and again, but it’s decidedly written to ensure both a Unionist and Nationalist party are involved in the administration - these days, the DUP and Sinn Fein).

The DUP First Minister, Paul Givan is planning to resign from the Executive. This is supposed to trigger a brief period where another FM is searched for. This also triggers the removal of the Sinn Fein Deputy FM from office. Other cabinet members can continue - but the clock starts for a new administration to be formed, before the Executive collapses. Previously that would occur after a matter of days, but new Westminster legislation has extended the renegotiation period to six weeks.

This is obstensibly about the NI Protocol, but is littered with local political undertones. In May’s election, the unionist vote is projected to split between the DUP, their more moderate predecessors the UUP (Ulster Unionist Party) and the hardline TUV (Traditional Unionist Voice). This may be a stunt by the DUP to either disrupt the election cycle, or draw back their traditional support.

It should be noted that the DUP are pretty chilled about direct rule from London, and would almost certainly rather that than a Sinn Fein FM. So while this latest drama was started by Brexit, it may drag on in some form for a long time (or at least until the polling shifts).

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My understanding is that the bill going through Parliament that would prevent the need for an early election (it would still take place in May). The executive would be powerless until then with no First Minister, and in turn, no Deputy First Minister.

In terms of election ramifications, this might regalvanise the DUP/TUV end of politics but don't assume UUP or Alliance voters will take that kindly to it.

That’s good to know - sorry, haven’t had a chance to read the bill yet. It’s probably one of the better options on the table, letting the Executive just reform after the election. Most of the decisions lie in the hands of the NI Secretary now anyway. 

And would largely agree on the political impact. The DUP reclaiming some of its hardline attitude probably helps them on the right, but increases the risk to their left flank. I know several voters in County Down who still tend to vote UUP. Brexit has pushed them closer to Alliance (whom most voted for in 2019), rather than into the arms of the DUP.

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Munira Mirza has quit over this issue!

Losing the Downing Street head of policy, the very day after the Levelling Up announcement…

Feels like an indicator of just how damaged the PM has been, by both the parties, and his distastrous attempt to deflect the crisis onto criticism of Starmer.

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Can I pause this discussion about Johnson's recreation of the fall of Rome to bring you a ridiculous local government story?

FMQs: Nicola Sturgeon defends proposal to chop bottom off school doors for ventilation
SNP ministers plan to spend £300,000 chopping the bottoms off hundreds of classroom doors to try to stop the spread of Covid in schools.

Shirley Anne-Somerville, the Scottish Education Secretary, wrote to MSPs informing them that around 2,000 doors could be “undercut to increase airflow”.

In a letter to Holyrood’s education committee, she said between two and four per cent of rooms across Scotland’s schools and nurseries had been identified as having “problematic” carbon dioxide levels because of inadequate ventilation.

She said this was the equivalent of around 2,000 classrooms and £5 million would now be spent trying to improve their airflow using filtration units, extraction fans and by chopping off the bottoms of doors.

Each door is expected to cost around £150 to rectify, she said, resulting in a total cost to the public purse of around £300,000.

The implications for fire safety (which relies on closing doors to prevent airflow and slowing the O₂ supply) alone are wild. I think we invented windows for this very purpose. Obviously the addition of air filtration systems is welcome, but it's embarrassing that the rest of this proposal got this far.

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And back to the fall of Rome...

https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1489322969721618439

Either this is the most comprehensive "cleaning house" move ever, or the entirety of Johnson's senior staff basically just gave up this evening. Wild either way.

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In addition to the above - reporting from the Telegraph says that Tory whips are being briefed to prepare for ministerial resignations.

Currently three are thought to be wavering. The only public name is Alex Chalk - the Solicitor General. 

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So, looks like the new No.10 Director go Communications, Guto Harri, spent time lobbying for Huawei.

Can’t imagine that’ll go down too well with the backbenchers (and doesn’t make me feel great either), although I doubt it’ll be a dealbreaker given this administration.

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Keir Starmer mobbed in street by protesters as police escort Labour leader to safety near Parliament

Sir Keir Starmer has been mobbed by dozens of protesters shouting "traitor" at him in Westminster and had to be escorted through the crowd by police officers.

In video footage posted on social media, Sir Keir was seen walking near to Parliament surrounded by police officers as he was confronted by a group, some of whom repeated a Savile slur first used by Prime Minister Boris Johnson in Parliament.

The Labour leader was rushed into the back of a police vehicle and driven away from the scene.

Reports from Mirror journalists suggests at least one of the 'protesters' was brandishing a noose.

The only thing I'd say on the subject, is that this happened on the very same day Anna Firth was sworn in to replace Sir David Amess. What our leaders say matter, and regardless of their positions they have a responsibility not to peddle conspiracies, given our recent history.

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This statement feels like a cop-out. "Harrassment is bad", but no apology, no retraction, even amidst criticism from an increasing number of his own MPs. So far this one comment has cost him his policy chief, several MPs' support, and has now been linked to a small mob.

What on earth is it going to take to get him to retract his remarks? This whole situation gets more Trumpian by the day.

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1490773801096953862

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Whatever the motivation - it’s just an awful way to operate. Personally, it’s created the impression that Johnson is a man who has never been told no, never forced to back down, and so has no emotional response more mature than throwing his toys out of the pram.

*

In other Westminster news, there’s apparently going to be a small reshuffle today. The Times expects the following:

• Mark Spencer —> Leader of Commons
• Rees-Mogg —> Retains Cabinet role, possibly minister for Brexit opportunities
• Adams, Pincher & Heaton-Harris as possible candidate for Chief Whip

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Appointing Mark Spencer as Leader of the House, especially given that he’s still under investigation for the potentially sectarian firing of Nus Ghani seems a tad crass.

The Leader of the House has responsibilities for maintaining the standards of MPs behaviour. When Spencer’s own behaviour is in question, it seems suspect to give him oversight in such a role (and open Johnson up to further embarrassment if he has to dismiss Spencer for this behaviour down the line).

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The PM doesn't have the balls to sack anyone.

I should have seen that coming ever since he let Priti Patel carry on after the bullying report, and... well, every other scandal in the Home Office since 2019.

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PMQs felt extraordinarily average today. Given that Parliament starts a 10 day recess tomorrow, all the momentum seems to have gone out of this scandal. The Mirror tried to make news by dropping a new partygate photo right in the middle of PMQs, but all they could muster was a photo of the same quiz they showed earlier in the year, but from a different angle.

Wonder whether it’ll have any life at all when the Commons reconvene on the 21st, or whether this is the start of a period similar to 2017-19 where the default assumption was “the PM is technically safe for now, but unlikely to fight the next election”

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Bit of movement on the Met investigation tonight.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1491490730505818117
Key part here is probably the fact that the Met hopes to make initial contact with everyone they're interested in by the weekend, over 50 individuals.

My questions are largely:

• Presuming Johnson is contacted (hard to imagine he isn't at this point), does it leak? Or does No.10 issue a statement and try to play it off.
• Are any other MPs implicated/contacted? (particularly interested in certain ambitious cabinet members here...)
• Does this prompt any public leaks/admissions from among the 50 individuals of interest? Especially from former Downing Street staff
• Does being contacted prompt any resignations amongst Downing Street staff?
• Does this investigation leak badly (further damaging Johnson), or does the Met finally get its act together?

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DICK IS OUT

Sigh. *recommends*

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Who gets the job now? Given they'll have some oversight over the Downing Street investigation, I hope this doesn't get Trumpian - the last thing this situation needs is a UK version of the Bill Barr appointment.

I just hope Khan has played his cards right here. If he and the Home Office have a public spat over the new commissioner, the whole thing could get messy. Wonder whether there is a primary candidate (or shortlist) in mind, or whether this is going to drag on...

From what the BBC (specifically Kuennsberg) is saying, it sounds like Dick is staying until a replacement is found, but there's no word on the timescale. As awful as Dick has been, it may be less awkward if the investigation completes before her successor is appointed.

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Who gets the job now? Given they'll have some oversight over the Downing Street investigation, I hope this doesn't get Trumpian - the last thing this situation needs is a UK version of the Bill Barr appointment.

I just hope Khan has played his cards right here. If he and the Home Office have a public spat over the new commissioner, the whole thing could get messy. Wonder whether there is a primary candidate (or shortlist) in mind, or whether this is going to drag on...

From what the BBC (specifically Kuennsberg) is saying, it sounds like Dick is staying until a replacement is found, but there's no word on the timescale. As awful as Dick has been, it may be less awkward if the investigation completes before her successor is appointed.

I think it’s a quasi civil service led process e.g a long list and a shortlist, with the Home Sec required by law to consider the Mayors view.

There will be a Priti Patel backed candidate but I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s someone relatively experienced and competent (while being a headbanger) in order to beat the internal candidates from the Met.

I might be very wrong but I’m not really sure how someone could be worse- the Met already back the Governments draconian policing bill, they clobber peaceful protestors, have sat on politically sensitive cases and aren’t willing to carry out even modest reforms around the law on drugs or misogyny.

The only further regression possible is around the internal recruitment in the Met.

That's reassuring.

Apologies for the slight panic in my previous post, my understanding of the Met is pretty thin on the ground - feel very provincial out here in the North.

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I saw this good news the other day-excess deaths 5,000 lower than normal. It is a relief that Omicron is so much milder. It looks like the official Covid death toll may now be overestimating the death toll, unlike in the rest of the pandemic, and recording people who just happened to have Covid and were not killed by it. The decision to get rid of legal isolation requirements feels extreme, but it probably needs to happen eventually especially since Omicron is so transmissible so is there really going to be a better time for it?

Yeah - it’s pretty good news on the excess mortality stats.

Not sure what the national consensus is on total removal of lockdown rules is. At work, people are pretty skeptical, and there’s a local consensus that it’s just Johnson trying to shore up his support among the right of the party (anti-mask ’freedom lovers’ like Desmond Swain etc) - most of my colleagues fall into the ‘lefty academic’ stereotype though, so I may be in a slight echo chamber.