AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1564382916246913030

Is he, or most Republicans, aware of screenshots and how the internet works? Him, and others, are being very cavalier about how stupid they think voters are (granted his party's base of voters are).

The average GOP voter is like 85, so they are probably banking on high turnout carrying them over the finish line. Would have been a solid bet a couple months ago but not now.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1564367642030481413
Don't have cable but please don't spam people's youtube like Mark Kelly does.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1564367642030481413
Don't have cable but please don't spam people's youtube like Mark Kelly does.

Has he tried to walk back his statements on SS? That's the most damaging thing to him I think

[Brittain33]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but is saying “that’s a lie” “he’s lying” still considered a self-defeating political move that makes you look bad for anyone but Trump? I grew up hearing that Bob Dole saying “stop lying about my record” dug his own grave. But is that that still the case? Because Masters has called Kelly a liar in two videos. I’m sure it feels good for him to say it, but my experience says this turns off voters.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1564469714083987456

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1564469714083987456

Is there only one proposed debate for each race?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1564469714083987456

Is there only one proposed debate for each race?

Just one in October, Senate on Oct 6 and Governor on Oct 12.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1564469714083987456

Is there only one proposed debate for each race?

Just one in October, Senate on Oct 6 and Governor on Oct 12.

Honestly, for Senate and Gov campaigns, there's only need for one imo. The presidency even only gets 3, so some of these campaigns doing multiple ones just seems too much. Even in CO-GOV they're doing 3 and it seems wholly unnecessary

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1567487764202938368

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1567487764202938368

Im Blake Masters and I want attention! So I'm going to say the most controversial things possible!

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1567487764202938368

Im Blake Masters and I want attention! So I'm going to say the most controversial things possible!

If he wins he might make history as the first edge-lord internet troll to ever win a Senate seat.

Keep in mind, Biden only said "semi-Fascist."

[coloradocowboi]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1567487764202938368

Im Blake Masters and I want attention! So I'm going to say the most controversial things possible!

Tbh I agree that W was the real peak of American fascism. But I suspect me and Blake have different rationales unless he secretly cares a lot about gay rights

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/roddreher/status/1569004726389248000

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/roddreher/status/1569004726389248000

Bring on the work camps. If y’all can’t imagine what’s coming with these folks (or what they represent/who they’re serving) then I dunno.

[BG-NY]

Interestingly, Dobbs may have saved Masters in AZ. He has polled a bit better (still clearly behind) since moderating on abortion (and entitlements to a lesser degree).

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Interestingly, Dobbs may have saved Masters in AZ. He has polled a bit better (still clearly behind) since moderating on abortion (and entitlements to a lesser degree).

He just denied 9/11 on 9/11.

[wbrocks67]

Interestingly, Dobbs may have saved Masters in AZ. He has polled a bit better (still clearly behind) since moderating on abortion (and entitlements to a lesser degree).

There has literally been *one* poll where he has polled "better" and he's... still down by 2 points. The other was still Masters -6 and not even cracking 40%.

[xavier110]

Interestingly, Dobbs may have saved Masters in AZ. He has polled a bit better (still clearly behind) since moderating on abortion (and entitlements to a lesser degree).

Dobbs is basically the reason I feel decently that Mark Kelly will win at this rate

The GOP nominated an unlovable lizard creature who has been performing poorly with women

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Interestingly, Dobbs may have saved Masters in AZ. He has polled a bit better (still clearly behind) since moderating on abortion (and entitlements to a lesser degree).

He's on tape saying he supports abolishing Social Security. He can backtrack all he wants but Kelly is going to keep pouncing on him for it

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Interestingly, Dobbs may have saved Masters in AZ. He has polled a bit better (still clearly behind) since moderating on abortion (and entitlements to a lesser degree).

If the Dobbs affect were to happen in Arizona, it would be benefitting Hobbs because abortion is now handled at the state level not federal, yet it seems that it is not materializing. Masters is running positive ads about himself, while Kelly is on the attack. Almost every time I try to watch a youtube video I get one of the "Blake Masters not for us" ads. There were some positive Kelly ads over the summer but they've disappeared. Masters is not polling good, but I'm hopeful because he is doing better than McSally was at this point in 2020.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Interestingly, Dobbs may have saved Masters in AZ. He has polled a bit better (still clearly behind) since moderating on abortion (and entitlements to a lesser degree).

If the Dobbs affect were to happen in Arizona, it would be benefitting Hobbs because abortion is now handled at the state level not federal, yet it seems that it is not materializing. Masters is running positive ads about himself, while Kelly is on the attack. Almost every time I try to watch a youtube video I get one of the "Blake Masters not for us" ads. There were some positive Kelly ads over the summer but they've disappeared. Masters is not polling good, but I'm hopeful because he is doing better than McSally was at this point in 2020.

No kidding, which is why I think the Dobbs effect is overrated. If it was stronger, Hobbs would be leading by 4-5 points by now because Lake is so toxic

[MargieCat]

When Masters speaks, I keep thinking of Kelly Loeffler.

That robotic monotone voice uncharismatically blurting out conservative talking points. It's like him and Kelly Loeffler were conceived in the same laboratory.

[Pericles]

Interestingly, Dobbs may have saved Masters in AZ. He has polled a bit better (still clearly behind) since moderating on abortion (and entitlements to a lesser degree).

If the Dobbs affect were to happen in Arizona, it would be benefitting Hobbs because abortion is now handled at the state level not federal, yet it seems that it is not materializing. Masters is running positive ads about himself, while Kelly is on the attack. Almost every time I try to watch a youtube video I get one of the "Blake Masters not for us" ads. There were some positive Kelly ads over the summer but they've disappeared. Masters is not polling good, but I'm hopeful because he is doing better than McSally was at this point in 2020.

I don't think voters are thinking about it in that complicated way. People whose voting behavior is changed by Dobbs, and this is mainly Democratic base voters who were depressed and not going to turn out before*, would just vote for Democrats up and down the ballot because of it.

*It's not just Dobbs but a Dobbs+IRA+anti-Trump effect.

[wbrocks67]

Interestingly, Dobbs may have saved Masters in AZ. He has polled a bit better (still clearly behind) since moderating on abortion (and entitlements to a lesser degree).

If the Dobbs affect were to happen in Arizona, it would be benefitting Hobbs because abortion is now handled at the state level not federal, yet it seems that it is not materializing. Masters is running positive ads about himself, while Kelly is on the attack. Almost every time I try to watch a youtube video I get one of the "Blake Masters not for us" ads. There were some positive Kelly ads over the summer but they've disappeared. Masters is not polling good, but I'm hopeful because he is doing better than McSally was at this point in 2020.

No kidding, which is why I think the Dobbs effect is overrated. If it was stronger, Hobbs would be leading by 4-5 points by now because Lake is so toxic

AZ is still a purple state, so Hobbs leading about 1-2 right now even in a Dobbs environment is pretty realistic to me.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interestingly, Dobbs may have saved Masters in AZ. He has polled a bit better (still clearly behind) since moderating on abortion (and entitlements to a lesser degree).

If the Dobbs affect were to happen in Arizona, it would be benefitting Hobbs because abortion is now handled at the state level not federal, yet it seems that it is not materializing. Masters is running positive ads about himself, while Kelly is on the attack. Almost every time I try to watch a youtube video I get one of the "Blake Masters not for us" ads. There were some positive Kelly ads over the summer but they've disappeared. Masters is not polling good, but I'm hopeful because he is doing better than McSally was at this point in 2020.

No kidding, which is why I think the Dobbs effect is overrated. If it was stronger, Hobbs would be leading by 4-5 points by now because Lake is so toxic

AZ is still a purple state, so Hobbs leading about 1-2 right now even in a Dobbs environment is pretty realistic to me.

And even then Dems pretty universally improved in polling across the board post Dobbs albeit in some states more than others. Also a reminder the final polling averages in AZ really weren't that bad in 2020 but polling did have a sharp turn in favor of the GOP in the state come election day. We'll see if that's the case again this year, but assuming a Hobbs + 2 lead actually means Lake + 6 isn't rooted in anything. The only states you may be able to make that argument for are the midwestern states where polls have had big problems several cycles in a row.