AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[Pericles]

Unbeatable Titan Doug Ducey and his lower approval rating than Trump in a D trending state against a fairly popular incumbent will obviously make this race Safe R.

Well if the polls measuring his approval rate are as much reliable than those which forecasted a Kelly double digit win, Ducey would be in a good shape

Kelly was only up by 5-6 points.

[Pericles]

Not bad for him, but it doesn't mean much. If 2022 is a (non-Atlas) red wave and the Republican isn't toxic, Kelly will be swamped regardless, and if Biden governs well that will be what saves him not fundraising. Though as Bill Nelson shows, everything can be decisive-it just probably won't.

[Pericles]

I don't see how being Trumpian is a big problem for the Republicans. Trump got 49% of the vote in Arizona, he isn't that unpopular here, and with it being a Biden midterm it might not even matter that much since the dynamics are different. I don't think it's fair to compare to Nevada 2010 where McCain/Palin lost by over 12 points.

Arizona is probably one of the best test cases for the midterm realignment theory, where reliable, more educated voters turn out... it seems reasonable to assume that these folks in AZ are not as Trumpy as the juiced up turnout in 2020. Do they revert to GOP though? Do the rural communities still mobilize in droves?

I have my doubts, anecdotally, if my suburban professional class friends who voted Republican in the past (think Romney/Ducey voters) but were Sinema/Biden/Kelly voters are any sign. They wouldn’t be caught dead voting for Biggs, Ward, etc.

Arizona has a lot of Hispanics, the low propensity Trump voters would be a bigger problem for Republicans in a state like Wisconsin.

[Pericles]

How are Ducey's approval ratings doing? Arizona has one of the highest Covid per capita death tolls in the US, is that effecting his support?

[Pericles]

Interestingly, Dobbs may have saved Masters in AZ. He has polled a bit better (still clearly behind) since moderating on abortion (and entitlements to a lesser degree).

If the Dobbs affect were to happen in Arizona, it would be benefitting Hobbs because abortion is now handled at the state level not federal, yet it seems that it is not materializing. Masters is running positive ads about himself, while Kelly is on the attack. Almost every time I try to watch a youtube video I get one of the "Blake Masters not for us" ads. There were some positive Kelly ads over the summer but they've disappeared. Masters is not polling good, but I'm hopeful because he is doing better than McSally was at this point in 2020.

I don't think voters are thinking about it in that complicated way. People whose voting behavior is changed by Dobbs, and this is mainly Democratic base voters who were depressed and not going to turn out before*, would just vote for Democrats up and down the ballot because of it.

*It's not just Dobbs but a Dobbs+IRA+anti-Trump effect.

[Pericles]

OK now I'm convinced he's running because he wants to be famous and for no other reason. This is ridiculous

Seems like this the primarily intention of several Republican candidates, including Oz, Vance and Walker. I'm not reading anything on substantive issues what they want to accomplish for the greater good. Republicans in 2022 haven't much to offer other than fighting culture wars and self-pity over the 2020 election.

Can you blame them with the track record of Congress? This one is a slight exception but the political system doesn't do nearly enough to actually solve the public's problems.