It goes without saying, but the sweet spot for this race is a generic center right conservative. I don’t really know if said person exists or can survive a primary here, however.
I’ve become more of a Ducey doubter with time - both because he has been incompetent and if he does survive a primary (a tall order, IMO) he will come out significantly bloodied. So I dunno if he really ends up being much better than a Gosar, tbh.
Still the race in my mind is a tossup. It’s hard to suss out if the Ds actually have a slight advantage during midterms now, with the educated suburban shift.
I think that this is absolutely the right take. Arizona should be the GOP's #1 pick-up opportunity, but I honestly think they are poised to nominate Kelli Ward and just sink it.
Also the observation about educated voters is spot-on and why I don't think 2022 is gonna be a wave, unless somehow 70% of Republicans stop deciding white supremacist terrorisms is their #1 goal between now and the next election lol
