AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[Progressive Pessimist]

Interestingly, Dobbs may have saved Masters in AZ. He has polled a bit better (still clearly behind) since moderating on abortion (and entitlements to a lesser degree).

If the Dobbs affect were to happen in Arizona, it would be benefitting Hobbs because abortion is now handled at the state level not federal, yet it seems that it is not materializing. Masters is running positive ads about himself, while Kelly is on the attack. Almost every time I try to watch a youtube video I get one of the "Blake Masters not for us" ads. There were some positive Kelly ads over the summer but they've disappeared. Masters is not polling good, but I'm hopeful because he is doing better than McSally was at this point in 2020.

No kidding, which is why I think the Dobbs effect is overrated. If it was stronger, Hobbs would be leading by 4-5 points by now because Lake is so toxic

The Dobbs effect has more to do with being a catalyst for Democrats turning out in a year where they otherwise were suspected not to on par with Republicans. If polls are underestimating Democratic turnout and Independents don't significantly go Republican, then the effect could be a savior for candidates who have been narrowly trailing their Republican opponents or locked in a dead heat with them.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Dobbs effect has more to do with being a catalyst for Democrats turning out in a year where they otherwise were suspected not to on par with Republicans. If polls are underestimating Democratic turnout and Independents don't significantly go Republican, then the effect could be a savior for candidates who have been narrowly trailing their Republican opponents or locked in a dead heat with them.

Somehow I have a suspicion that both of those suspicions are quite suspect.

Note the "if." I'm going off of the special election results compared to their polling.

[Gass3268]

Ummmmmm

https://twitter.com/jaywillis/status/1569725634741665792?s=20&t=2Cwf38cPvnLe3gQ8nwGINw

[Xing]

Ummmmmm

https://twitter.com/jaywillis/status/1569725634741665792?s=20&t=2Cwf38cPvnLe3gQ8nwGINw

Edgelord gonna be edgy 12.5D chess strategy that elitist out-of-touch liberals could never wrap their feeble brainwashed brains around!

[Devout Centrist]

Ummmmmm

https://twitter.com/jaywillis/status/1569725634741665792?s=20&t=2Cwf38cPvnLe...

Yeah, this has come up a couple times already. Certainly doesn't help BLAKE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Masters and Oz are DONE they are down 52/37

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

OK now I'm convinced he's running because he wants to be famous and for no other reason. This is ridiculous

[President Johnson]

OK now I'm convinced he's running because he wants to be famous and for no other reason. This is ridiculous

Seems like this the primarily intention of several Republican candidates, including Oz, Vance and Walker. I'm not reading anything on substantive issues what they want to accomplish for the greater good. Republicans in 2022 haven't much to offer other than fighting culture wars and self-pity over the 2020 election.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Knowing Masters his comments on Social Security is not the thing with 'SS' as an acronym that will hurt him the most.

[Pericles]

OK now I'm convinced he's running because he wants to be famous and for no other reason. This is ridiculous

Seems like this the primarily intention of several Republican candidates, including Oz, Vance and Walker. I'm not reading anything on substantive issues what they want to accomplish for the greater good. Republicans in 2022 haven't much to offer other than fighting culture wars and self-pity over the 2020 election.

Can you blame them with the track record of Congress? This one is a slight exception but the political system doesn't do nearly enough to actually solve the public's problems.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1573025936676917248

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1573025936676917248

This is probably the correct move. AZ-GOV remains a tossup, but Kelly seems to be pulling away from Masters. Masters has not led a single poll, so far as I can tell, since winning the primary. And McConnell, along with his other colleagues in the Senate, don't seem too confident about his chances.

[GeorgiaModerate]

 An overdue move, really.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Personally, while I see the logic, I think this is a slight jump too soon since the election is still like 7 weeks away. A reminder that in 2020, polls in Senate races like AZ narrowed very last minute as undecides made up their and while Kelly still won in 2020, it was by a much smaller margin than most had assumed at this point.

I'm not saying this race will see the exact same trajectory as the 2020 race, but I would've waited another few weeks to see if Kelly keeps holding his lead in the polls. Rn it's tilt D for me.

[wbrocks67]

Personally, while I see the logic, I think this is a slight jump too soon since the election is still like 7 weeks away. A reminder that in 2020, polls in Senate races like AZ narrowed very last minute as undecides made up their and while Kelly still won in 2020, it was by a much smaller margin than most had assumed at this point.

I'm not saying this race will see the exact same trajectory as the 2020 race, but I would've waited another few weeks to see if Kelly keeps holding his lead in the polls. Rn it's tilt D for me.

Doesn't early voting start in AZ relatively soon? Also, Kelly is at 50 in nearly all these polls.

[Cyrusman]

So 538 dropped Masters chances of winning yesterday from 22 to 19. Unless I missed another poll all that was released yesterday was a Data for Progress poll showing a 48-47 Kelly lead which ironically is the best poll for Masters so far lol. Yet that alone drops him 3 points. I swear to god, part of me wants either Masters or OZ to win just to Silver can have egg on his face.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1573447684152651776

I believe the law allows abortions only to save the life of the mother, no rape or incest exceptions (although I'm not 100% certain of this).

[wbrocks67]

So 538 dropped Masters chances of winning yesterday from 22 to 19. Unless I missed another poll all that was released yesterday was a Data for Progress poll showing a 48-47 Kelly lead which ironically is the best poll for Masters so far lol. Yet that alone drops him 3 points. I swear to god, part of me wants either Masters or OZ to win just to Silver can have egg on his face.

I mean, everyone would have egg on their face. Masters hasn't led a single poll.

[Person Man]

So 538 dropped Masters chances of winning yesterday from 22 to 19. Unless I missed another poll all that was released yesterday was a Data for Progress poll showing a 48-47 Kelly lead which ironically is the best poll for Masters so far lol. Yet that alone drops him 3 points. I swear to god, part of me wants either Masters or OZ to win just to Silver can have egg on his face.

I mean, everyone would have egg on their face. Masters hasn't led a single poll.

The Red Baron will be fixing that.

[Devils30]

You wonder if Hobbs might pull it out after this and even the legislature along with AZ-1,6 are in play. GOP has been a total train wreck here since the spring.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1573357338710474755

[ProgressiveModerate]

You wonder if Hobbs might pull it out after this and even the legislature along with AZ-1,6 are in play. GOP has been a total train wreck here since the spring.

I'm still mad at Dems for literally failing to recruit Dems in several state legislative districts Biden won.

[xavier110]

Back in April, I made the following assessment of Kelly’s odds:

If Kelly wins (and if he does it will be barely), it’s due to a perfect storm of:
- his own personal popularity/defined persona
- Maricopa turnout and growth (I’s have overtaken R’s here for the first time ever)
- well defined/disliked opponent post primary
- Trump being a drag on GOP officials here more so than most states — the fraudit/election stuff is still what you read/hear about all the time here
- voting by mail upping D midterm turnout  statewide vs non VBM states
- libertarian on the ballot siphons R votes and gets 1%+

We are two weeks away from voting starting, basically October, so it’s time to revisit this post. Honestly, if I were Kelly, I would feel decent right now.

His favorabilities have stayed fairly high despite attacks from the GOP, Trump remains a drag on the state GOP, and the libertarian is poised to siphon 1-2 percent of the vote.

But above all, Masters is super disliked. I enjoyed listening to Longwell’s latest focus group podcast with AZ voters. They hated Masters and found him creepy and weird, with out there positions. There even was a Kelly/Lake voter in the group…

So, I think most of the conditions needed for a Kelly victory are being met right now. If he does win, though, it will be close. I would be surprised if he surpassed his 2020 margin/percentage.

Don’t talk to me about the other statewide races or Hobbs, though… this is the one I feel OK about.

[wbrocks67]

Back in April, I made the following assessment of Kelly’s odds:

If Kelly wins (and if he does it will be barely), it’s due to a perfect storm of:
- his own personal popularity/defined persona
- Maricopa turnout and growth (I’s have overtaken R’s here for the first time ever)
- well defined/disliked opponent post primary
- Trump being a drag on GOP officials here more so than most states — the fraudit/election stuff is still what you read/hear about all the time here
- voting by mail upping D midterm turnout  statewide vs non VBM states
- libertarian on the ballot siphons R votes and gets 1%+

We are two weeks away from voting starting, basically October, so it’s time to revisit this post. Honestly, if I were Kelly, I would feel decent right now.

His favorabilities have stayed fairly high despite attacks from the GOP, Trump remains a drag on the state GOP, and the libertarian is poised to siphon 1-2 percent of the vote.

But above all, Masters is super disliked. I enjoyed listening to Longwell’s latest focus group podcast with AZ voters. They hated Masters and found him creepy and weird, with out there positions. There even was a Kelly/Lake voter in the group…

So, I think most of the conditions needed for a Kelly victory are being met right now. If he does win, though, it will be close. I would be surprised if he surpassed his 2020 margin/percentage.

Don’t talk to me about the other statewide races or Hobbs, though… this is the one I feel OK about.

Hobbs certainly got a boost from the abortion ban. If she doesn't utilize that to her advantage and in contrast to Lake, she deserves to lose.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Back in April, I made the following assessment of Kelly’s odds:

If Kelly wins (and if he does it will be barely), it’s due to a perfect storm of:
- his own personal popularity/defined persona
- Maricopa turnout and growth (I’s have overtaken R’s here for the first time ever)
- well defined/disliked opponent post primary
- Trump being a drag on GOP officials here more so than most states — the fraudit/election stuff is still what you read/hear about all the time here
- voting by mail upping D midterm turnout  statewide vs non VBM states
- libertarian on the ballot siphons R votes and gets 1%+

We are two weeks away from voting starting, basically October, so it’s time to revisit this post. Honestly, if I were Kelly, I would feel decent right now.

His favorabilities have stayed fairly high despite attacks from the GOP, Trump remains a drag on the state GOP, and the libertarian is poised to siphon 1-2 percent of the vote.

But above all, Masters is super disliked. I enjoyed listening to Longwell’s latest focus group podcast with AZ voters. They hated Masters and found him creepy and weird, with out there positions. There even was a Kelly/Lake voter in the group…

So, I think most of the conditions needed for a Kelly victory are being met right now. If he does win, though, it will be close. I would be surprised if he surpassed his 2020 margin/percentage.

Don’t talk to me about the other statewide races or Hobbs, though… this is the one I feel OK about.

Hobbs certainly got a boost from the abortion ban. If she doesn't utilize that to her advantage and in contrast to Lake, she deserves to lose.

She did film a 'don't waste law enforcement resources on this' ad.