UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/opiniumresearch/status/1586438027198418944?s=46&t=KcgACt...

“yOuR dOoMiNg hAs gOnE iNtErnAtiOnAL”

[Torrain]

Local MP Roger Gale is visiting the Manston refugee site today, the location where Braverman broke the law via overcrowding, and created an environment that produced a diphtheria outbreak.

Gale wants the site to be restored to its prior role as an airfield (its a longstanding constituency thing apparently), so he’s not expected to pull any punches.

Diana Johnson, Chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee is also pushing to visit the site - sounds like she’s out for blood too.

Edit: Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick (close Sunak ally, reportedly appointed to 'babysit' Braverman as Home Sec) will visit the sites in Manston and Dover, on behalf of the government, to review the reports of overcrowding.

[Silent Hunter]

There have been two attempts to use a hotel in my area to house asylum seekers; both were cancelled in the face of local political opposition.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The more Tories try the hackneyed imitations of Australian refugee ““policy”” the more I’m convinced Lynton Crosby truly doesn’t understand British politics and has just got lucky copying Australian tactics.

[CumbrianLefty]

His big UK success was 2015, when the Tories got lucky with the "Great Scots Scare" - without that it is doubtful they would have won an overall majority, at least.

[Torrain]

There's been an incident at a migrant site in Dover Thanet:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1586714002360598530

[AustralianSwingVoter]

His big UK success was 2015, when the Tories got lucky with the "Great Scots Scare" - without that it is doubtful they would have won an overall majority, at least.

And of course he then promptly got exposed with his disastrous 2017 campaign for May. Looking back the tactics were pure NSW politics. Where he cut his teeth after all.
And his protege and 2019 architect Isaac Levido is also an Aussie! (I know his country home town well lol). Though I doubt he’ll get a spot in the Lords or an AO given now quickly he outstayed his welcome.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/opiniumresearch/status/1586438027198418944?s=46&t=KcgACt...

“yOuR dOoMiNg hAs gOnE iNtErnAtiOnAL”

I think the fact that we think a 16 point lead is bad really shows where the Tories are RN

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/opiniumresearch/status/1586438027198418944?s=46&t=KcgACt...

“yOuR dOoMiNg hAs gOnE iNtErnAtiOnAL”

I think the fact that we think a 16 point lead is bad really shows where the Tories are RN

imagine dooming over numbers that still give Labour a landslide majority of 112 lol

[Filuwaúrdjan]

imagine dooming over numbers that still give Labour a landslide majority of 112 lol

Given the voters who have moved, it would likely be a bigger number than that. 16pts would also be the largest PV margin since 1931.

[JimJamUK]

There's been an incident at a migrant site in Dover:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1586714002360598530

I don’t mean to sound pedantic, but the site is not in Dover, it’s 20 miles away in Thanet (not that you can expect news organisations to get details like this correct).

[Torrain]

There's been an incident at a migrant site in Dover:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1586714002360598530

I don’t mean to sound pedantic, but the site is not in Dover, it’s 20 miles away in Thanet (not that you can expect news organisations to get details like this correct).

Apologies - the event was originally reported as happening in Manston, then edited to read Dover, so that’s the change I made to the original post. From what I can see, it happened close to The Viaduct - which I thought was in the port of Dover?

It’s manifestly not my corner of the country, so happy to defer on that though…

[JimJamUK]

There's been an incident at a migrant site in Dover:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1586714002360598530

I don’t mean to sound pedantic, but the site is not in Dover, it’s 20 miles away in Thanet (not that you can expect news organisations to get details like this correct).

Apologies - the event was originally reported as happening in Manston, then edited to read Dover, so that’s the change I made to the original post. From what I can see, it happened close to The Viaduct - which I thought was in the port of Dover?

It’s manifestly not my corner of the country, so happy to defer on that though…

I was attacking the BBC not you, and actually it seems you’re right anyways (the articles mentions he was angry about Manston migrant centre but the attack was in Dover itself) 😅

[Torrain]

New Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride is considering cutting maternity rights for working women. Which could be an uncomfortable political fight because the Johnson government explicitly changed the law to grant additional maternity leave rights for female government ministers last year.

For bonus points: which minister was the law explicitly amended to benefit?

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

BBC News: Maternity leave law change for Attorney General Suella Braverman

[afleitch]

For anyone concerned about the polling, the polling got worse for the Tories in the weeks after the mini budget. Polling is still as bad as it was in mid October.

The shifts in the polls were either Tories to 'Don't Knows' or directly to Labour. Depending on whether a poster disregards don't knows or reallocates them (often back to the Tories) can impact the lead.

Reform (Brexit Party) have seen an odd little surge, perhaps on the back of the uncontested leadership contest or being 'true believers'.

[YL]

Reform (Brexit Party) have seen an odd little surge, perhaps on the back of the uncontested leadership contest or being 'true believers'.

I am a little sceptical of Reform UK's polling.  They have nearly zero visibility and their track record in actual elections is either virtually non-existent (locals) or underwhelming (parliamentary by-elections).

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1587051282845548544

[Torrain]

The most revealing part of Braverman's letter to the Home Affairs Committee is the admission that "the Chief Whip had also notified the Prime Minister of this issue. This was not known to me until after these events."

Which implies that Braverman was not the one who raised the issue - as she claimed in her resignation letter - which now appears to include some rather blatant non-truths.

Full letter can be found here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1114666/311022_HASC_letter.pdf

Edit: It's one of those days: Rishi Sunak has full confidence in Suella Braverman, says the PM’s spokesman

[CumbrianLefty]

imagine dooming over numbers that still give Labour a landslide majority of 112 lol

Given the voters who have moved, it would likely be a bigger number than that. 16pts would also be the largest PV margin since 1931.

it would indeed narrowly beat the record since then (1983)

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/opiniumresearch/status/1586438027198418944?s=46&t=KcgACt...

“yOuR dOoMiNg hAs gOnE iNtErnAtiOnAL”

I think the fact that we think a 16 point lead is bad really shows where the Tories are RN

imagine dooming over numbers that still give Labour a landslide majority of 112 lol

I mean… that’s large. But for a popular vote margin that high? It’s nowhere near the Labour majority of 1997 and 2001

https://twitter.com/opiniumresearch/status/1586438027198418944?s=46&t=KcgACt...

“yOuR dOoMiNg hAs gOnE iNtErnAtiOnAL”

I think the fact that we think a 16 point lead is bad really shows where the Tories are RN

Considering they were double that just a WEEK ago. And they need a 9% win to get a majority….

imagine dooming over numbers that still give Labour a landslide majority of 112 lol

Given the voters who have moved, it would likely be a bigger number than that. 16pts would also be the largest PV margin since 1931.

Even if the number held it’d be irrelevant in the context of “historically large” because it would result in an underwhelming majority for such a popular vote margin because Labour has been emasculated in Scotland.

Reform (Brexit Party) have seen an odd little surge, perhaps on the back of the uncontested leadership contest or being 'true believers'.

I am a little sceptical of Reform UK's polling.  They have nearly zero visibility and their track record in actual elections is either virtually non-existent (locals) or underwhelming (parliamentary by-elections).

They had a chance to be a force to be reckoned with in 2019. If they had stood in every contest in the country they could have done some real damage. Won 10-12 seats. Of course they also would’ve likely left the commons deadlocked between Remainers and Brexiteers but still

[Silent Hunter]

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1587051282845548544

None of them probably were SECRET. OFFICIAL- SENSITIVE perhaps.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/POLITlCSUK/status/1587051559011160064?s=20&t=gJ_cbmop_kF...

LMFAO.

[Pink Panther]

https://twitter.com/POLITlCSUK/status/1587051559011160064?s=20&t=gJ_cbmop_kF...
LMFAO.

Assuming Sunak gets the ax as well(which I still doubt for right now, but anyways), what else does the Tories have? Mourdant? BoJo? Wallace? Jamie Wallis at this point?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/POLITlCSUK/status/1587051559011160064
LMFAO.

Assuming Sunak gets the ax as well(which I still doubt for right now, but anyways), what else does the Tories have? Mourdant? BoJo? Wallace? Jamie Wallis at this point?

Seppuku

[Cassius]

Sounds like a few right wingers are blowing off steam because they aren’t happy about the cabinet reshuffle, nothing more.