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I think black voters living in rural areas might be the most likely to swing right since they are affected the most by high gas prices and inflation. And tying Biden to high gas prices is very easy to do since it is true his policies inhibit oil and gas production in the United States.

No I have cuz in TX that's support ALLRED, lol you always do this every Eday cycle you Pred GA as Lean R in 2020 along with Milineal Moderate

After Warnock won even MT Treasure jumped on the GA train and said it was Lean D, Trump only been ahead by 3 and 5 in GA and NC. The other polls are wrong

https://twitter.com/dim0kq/status/1791888739343429877?s=46
Czech shells are finally coming in

The first. The second will arguably still have more attachment to their race due to it being a defining characteristic which separates them from their neighbors.

It will all depend on whether blexit is real or not.

they don't know if they are supposed to be mad that colleges don't allow due process when punishing students.  Most of them don't care when it's just men (often minority men and occasionally a lesbian, but they can overlook that) getting screwed by such things.  We'll have to wait until their handlers tell them which way to think on this issue.  My guess is that it's too confusing and they will mostly ignore it.

The left doesn't believe that certain types of "criminals" (and that's in quotes because frequently these guys aren't actually accused of breaking the law) should not be entitled to a fair trial. Sexual misconduct is one, obviously. At the height of the MeToo moral panic you could get fired simply for suggesting that accused men should get a real trial before having their lives ruined. The other big one is any kind of allegation of bigotry, which is the issue here.

I'm opposed to this, obviously, but I find it borderline impossible to feel bad for people who are just now realizing that this is a problem because it's suddenly affecting people they care about.

Here's an analogy- I'm against the war on drugs, but if a guy who works for the DEA gets caught dealing crack I'm not doing to feel the least bit sorry for him if they throw the book at him. These people decided that anyone who makes any ethnic minority uncomfortable for two seconds has to get cancelled. Well, turns out chanting "intifada" and "there is one solution" makes Jewish people uncomfortable, so I guess they're cancelled now, buh-bye, see you later. I expect everyone to follow their own rules whether I agree with them or not.

[Lebanese barber who used to cut my hair, Bay Ridge, said he’s voting Trump because of Gaza]

A friend I know lives in the Bronx. She is 27. She claims everyone she knows (beyond family) supports Trump and most of the POC she knows want to vote for him.

Another friend of mine, a Dominican male in Brooklyn I once worked for, is excited to vote for Trump. His girlfriend is voting for Biden.

Black friend my godfathers son is a security guard in Brooklyn, plans to vote Trump as he felt the economy was better even if he thinks Trump is a loser

Italian friend in Bensonhurst wants to vote Biden as he feels Trump is a traitor who should be in prison, his wife feels the same.

Lebanese barber who used to cut my hair, Bay Ridge, said he’s voting Trump because of Gaza

Former neighbor 50s I speak to still lives in Bay Ridge was a lifetime Democrat but will vote Trump because of Gaza

My sister (age 50) in bay ridge will vote Trump due to the Muslim presence in bay ridge that she despises

My soon to be roomate, aged 43, conspiracy theorist, in Bay Ridge, wants to vote Trump for reasons I can’t say against Biden.

A girl I know aged 33 in north Brooklyn wants to vote either Biden, or RFK JR, but she’s said if it’s between either it’ll likely be RFK JR.

My other sister (age 51) in Staten Island favors but is not committed to voting Trump as she wants the 2019 economy back

My other sister (44), near Bath Beach, will vote Trump.

All of the above are working class people, not wealthy or even middle class.

Hmmmmmmmm…..does this add up to anyone else?

It does if you consider people vote for the same things for different reasons.
Not everyone who voted in favor of the 64 civil rights act did it to honor John Kennedy or to make America more equal, some who did felt that passing it would make black people shut up

So you’re telling me that someone who is very pro Arab/Muslim and someone who is very anti-Arab/Muslim are both voting for Trump based on his views about Arabs and Muslims? And that this is supposed to represent a massive trend that will propel Trump to a glorious victory?

Sure, Jan

Never said it was a trend. But I think there are more Muslims than you realize that are deeply unhappy with Biden who would normally vote Democratic. That normally would hate Trump.

A trend I do think we will see is lack of voting by Muslims and 18-24 years old, and also increased voting for Trump by Muslims too. Those are trends I think we will see

I’m very aware of this. I’m pretty looped into the Arab advocacy community here in DC due to a previous job.

I’m just questioning whether that anger will cause them to vote for Trump, considering his many controversial statement and policies towards the Muslim community and the well known Islamophobia of some of his supporters (one of which you mentioned).

I think the angriest will just stay home, vote third party or leave the presidential ballot blank. Ultimately, though, most will still vote Biden because they know Trump will be worse for Gaza and Muslim Americans.

Americans aren´t all smart pragmatic strategic voters, don´t you know?

Trump could not have fired Fauci because he was not a political appointee. He could have been fired for cause but he could have appealed that and he would have won because he didn't do anything.

Most leftist/liberals would say these two events validate their beliefs that the right was engaging in bad faith from the start of these “free speech” and that it was always about defending reactionary/bigoted statements that the right agreed with or at the minimum defended out of political tribalism.

Doesn't that mean they're engaging in bad faith now when they bring up free speech then? If I ran my own university I wouldn't have rules like this about speech but I didn't make the rules at these places, the far left sensitivity police did. Blaming this on "conservatives" is completely baseless. They're just mad that they have to follow their own rules.

Looking at the details of the case, it is hardly black and white.

The "Stand Your Ground" law came into play with regard to self-defence.

And yet a jury of 12 people clearly rejected that argument and found him guilty under the laws governing the state.

I absolutely agree it would be in rural areas where the black vote would swing the most. North Carolina is pretty much a Trump state at this point.