If black voters swing right, which group powers the swing?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like there's arguments for both.

Outside being black, many in group 1 have demographic characteristics that would make them seem unfavorable for Democrats - most heavily black communities have lower educational attainment, decent religious affiliation, and often hold more conservative social views. One reason to believe these communities may not swing notably rightwards is they really didn't in 2020 - if you look at >95% black precincts in New York City, Chicago, or the deep south, the swings were usually <5% towards Trump.

The second group by definition would be harder to analyze because of how they're distributed, but these are black voters who may be more likely to be disconnected from the black community and more assimilated with other cultures, and hence pick up the politics of their neighbors. A huge reason why black voters have historically been so Dem leaning is because of the social collective of the group. If these voters become more disconnected from the "black community", could they shift right because certain social dynamics just don't exist? One reason to believe this group might not shift right is it's more likely to have certain characteristics that favor Democrats like better college attainment than black voters in heavily black neighborhoods.

[Sbane]

I think black voters living in rural areas might be the most likely to swing right since they are affected the most by high gas prices and inflation. And tying Biden to high gas prices is very easy to do since it is true his policies inhibit oil and gas production in the United States.

[It’s so Joever]

The first. The second will arguably still have more attachment to their race due to it being a defining characteristic which separates them from their neighbors.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think black voters living in rural areas might be the most likely to swing right since they are affected the most by high gas prices and inflation. And tying Biden to high gas prices is very easy to do since it is true his policies inhibit oil and gas production in the United States.

No I have cuz in TX that's support ALLRED, lol you always do this every Eday cycle you Pred GA as Lean R in 2020 along with Milineal Moderate

After Warnock won even MT Treasure jumped on the GA train and said it was Lean D, Trump only been ahead by 3 and 5 in GA and NC. The other polls are wrong