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Of the states that have averages:

AZ: Trump + 4.3
CA: Biden + 20.9
FL: Trump + 9.7
GA: Trump + 5.9
MI: Trump + 1.1
NV: Trump + 5.7
NC: Trump + 5.2
OH: Trump + 9.6
PA: Trump + 0.9
TX: Trump + 9.5
WI: Biden + 0.1

Really funny how Trump leads in every swing state except WI; not sure if this is just polling quirks or Biden having some sort of genuine strength in WI that doesn't exists in these other states, but interesting (and kind of funny) nonetheless.

Let's remember that polling has been atrociously overestimating Dems in Wisconsin in both 2016 og 2020. The FINAL 538 projection for Wisconsin was 6 points off in 2016 and 7½ points off in 2020. While there is obviously no guarantee that this means that it will be off again this year, that should at least make us question "strange" results such as Wisconsin currently being Bidens strongest swing state.

I also want to add that in BOTH 2016 and 2020, the states were polling were MOST off were Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio, where both years they were 6-8 points off in all three. Now that COULD be a coincidence but these three states are neighboring states with fairly similar demographics. There are definitely reasons to believe that polling somehow systematically underestimates Trump in those type of states. This is a further point to illustrate why I have Trump heavily favoured to win the presidency despite the national polls suggesting a dead heat.

Keith Brown is... not a respected figure in Scottish politics - Yousaf didn't even invite him to join the cabinet. If the SNP need an interim First Minister, I'm pretty sure it'll end up being John Sweeney, who's the only one of the SNP's old guard who hasn't retired from Holyrood, or had a formal discussion with Police Scotland over the past few years. He was Deputy FM for close to a decade, and is the sort of bland, reliable grandee they could use to fill the vacancy while a contested leadership election occurs.

The smoothest option though, is presumably Yousaf resigning to let one of his allies stand (it would presumably have to be Neil Gray, given Mhairi McAllan is several months pregnant), with Forbes etc standing aside in return for a couple of cabinet seats. The new candidate is coronated unopposed as SNP leader, and wins a plurality for the office of FM, establishing a new minority administration. A new face, could try for a fresh start with the opposition parties, and with a more ideologically balanced cabinet, could seek support from different parties depending on the legislation.

That's the best case scenario for the SNP under Oryxslayer's scenario 5. If the leadership is contested, it means either caretaker Yousaf (which seems unsustainable) or interim FM, which throws up a bunch of procedural issues during the FM vote, where the opposition could cause trouble if they align against the SNP.

[Pierre Poilievre]

Arguably Australia's greatest ever Prime Minister, tony Abbott, gives advice on how a candidate can win the next Canadian election.

Pierre Poilievre

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C6NlEgbtpwq/

A lot of the Green anger is clearly towards Yousaf specifically - otherwise it seems unlikely there would have been an unanimous decision to vote No Confidence (assuming this is true.) It's possible another SNP leader could convince them to think again, but there would probably have to be a policy concession to sweeten the deal.

And I presume that in the interim the new leader would have to be Keith Brown as Depute Leader. Whether he would want to do that long-term, if he'd face a leadership challenge and how SNP members would break in that hypothetical contest are all different questions.

I'd add that even if Yousaf does survive this, the SNP constitution appears to allow for annual elections. I would assume that this whole affair has damaged his credibility enough that somebody (Forbes?) will try to take a run at him over the summer.

Woodstock 99 was bad, yes.

Again, it'll be up to the American voters to punish Trump with any sort of consequences. Mueller, Smith, Congress, the Supreme Court-all have failed us.

That characterization seems particularly unfair wrt Smith. I don't know what else he could have done.

Give it up for thread #17 about this.

Apparently, as of Wednesday, CNN online (website? youtube?) traffic for the USA Israel-Gaza college stuff is 10 to 15 times more than traffic for the story they surprisingly did about mass graves in Gaza.

Obviously not. Not sure how he’d even do that

K

So we're now at the 'it is happening and you deserve it' stage. Didn't take too long.

Oh wow, a hack for Israel completely misinterpreting one of my posts regarding the current war? Must be a Tuesday...

Not surprised GMac and heatcharger recced it tho.

The sole purpose of this technology is to steal people's voices and make them say things they didn't actually say. 

Pretty sure Milei uploaded a YouTube video of an AI using his voice to speak English.

A lot of Indian politicians are doing this right now to speak in several different languages or target specific voters using deepfakes. They even call people using AI chatbots.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/18/world/asia/india-election-ai.html