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I'm pretty sure this is miscaptioned; if you actually listen with the sound on, she says "homeland" not "Poland".

Yes, it's clearly a miscaption.

Perhaps those polls with Haley up 15% on Biden were accurate.

I am very much inclined to believe them!

The hearing, conducted by an associate director of the university’s Center for Student Success and Intervention, was focused on an earlier comment he shared on social media, in which he discussed fighting a Zionist. “I don’t fight to injure or for there to be a winner or a loser, I fight to kill,” he wrote.

He told The Banner that at Columbia, he planned to study economics and political science. “The ultimate destination is Congress,” he said.

I'm sorry. What?

Please don't think I'm making light, his comments were despicable, but I don't think a return to an 1860's style cane-lashing style congress is what's needed in this environment. In any case, top tier weirdo and I'm glad his videos have only like 40-50 likes, but he should absolutely be shunned from any protests, let alone a hand in organizing anything.

Voters with very low social trust, an archetype of somebody who describes themselves as "nothing in particular" on a religious survey but hold some belief in a higher power. May reside in the exurbs of a major metro area, largely in northern states. Probably relatively indifferent to the exact contours of RFK's antivax politics but generally think the government always lies to them, and like the idea of an outsider.

That's my guess but you'll notice that generally this thread is struggling to come up with a single profile, because "occasional voters with low social trust" is not exactly a demographic familiar to the kind of person who typically posts on this forum.

She's very successfully making her primary race a referendum solely on her. We'll see how that works out for her.

but his rating from independents is also weak, at 33%

To quote Brian Griffin, “Independent voters are the biggest idiots on the planet.” I do not understand how anyone outside the right wing media bubble can disapprove of Joe Biden. The economy is better than it was before Covid. We got gun control and infrastructure passed. Insulin is capped at $35. What is wrong with these people?

The economy is not doing better than it was before COVID. Even after the economy returned to full employment there has been basically zero real wage growth. The recent economic news has really weakened Biden's strong economy message. Before it did look like Biden might have an unambiguously strong economy going into November but that looks much less likely now.

What?? Come on now, the economy is still on the right track. Inflation is way down and we’ve only had one quarter of slower economic growth. But isn’t that what we needed for our soft landing??

Anyway, perceptions about the economy are pretty much partisan these days.  If Trump was president with the same economy, every Republican would be going on and on about how great it is.

Inflation just went up amid a quarter of slow growth. Real wages are down quarter to quarter. There's still full employment however, but we'll see about the next jobs report. The two surveys have been diverging.

If you asked me a month ago I would've said that things were going pretty well but the mood has changed. A staglflationary environment has become much more likely. It's definitely not a particularly great economy, even if it's still fine overall.

I think we should wait until we get more economic data before making those kinds of claims.

Evil woman.
https://twitter.com/kassydillon/status/1783855653196288101?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6yY...

[UNRWA]

If I wanted my accusations to be taken seriously, I would simply not use an outlet named after a mass murder pogrom.

Fair enough, is this more suitable for your liking Ray?

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-17/ty-article/.premium/unrwa-israeli-army-forced-staff-to-confess-ties-to-hamas-using-torture/0000018e-ed4f-d5d5-a59f-ef5f32280000

Nope, strike two (can’t speak Ray, but I’m sure he’ll agree).  All this article says before the paywall is that UNRWA is making these allegations.  Given that they are facing extremely credible and serious allegations of deliberately and actively aiding a genocidal terrorist group, I’m not sure why anyone should trust a word they say.

You're a parody of yourself. Extremely credible, serious: goodness.

CA-47, MI-07/8, MD-06, VA-07

These are 5 seats that would be close to likely D if the Dem incumbents ran, but are now tossup due to being open seats. CA-47 is well Orange County, and Republicans have managed to recover significantly since 2018. The Michigan two are obvious. MD-06 will go comfortably for Biden, but Hogan will likely carry it by double digits. Whether the house race tracks closer to the Presidential or Senate will be key. VA-07 will vote Biden again, but it's unclear whether Trump does worse in VA this time around. Additionally, the GOP is likely going to nominate a better candidate than Vega.

I can see one of the Michigan seats flipping, but doubt the other ones (especially MD-06 and VA-07) do in a presidential year.

I could see Trump flipping one or both of the open MI seats but I think downballot Dems will hold them both.

> not that important

> over 10% of the state in 3 counties