Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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It is about to fall unless the Ukrainians have a trick up your ass.

Well yes - but it will fall at great cost to the Russians, far far later than they ever expected it would.

It was said poster's evident glee at the prospect that was the giveaway, as you must surely know.

Can’t wait for the pro-Russia lunatic brigade to act as though capturing a city the size of Utica NY after 7 months of assaults is the greatest military feat of modern history. It’s a morale hit for the Ukrainians to be sure, but at the end of the day the front has barely moved and Russia will have taken more losses than Ukraine (assuming no encirclement!).

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Interesting but apparently there a rumblings from Ukraine sources on Telegram that there are tunnels between Chasiv Yar and Bakmut to keep it supplied and rotate soldiers out. Might explain why they are choosing to stay in the city

That seems like a wild rumor made up by someone who wants to imagine there’s a grand plan at Bakhmut. The Ukrainian command will hopefully come to their senses soon and pull back to more defensible lines.

Even if that rumor is true, it’s a terrible idea. “Getting encircled is fine because we can still resupply” isn’t something that’s ever actually worked (Stalingrad being the prime example).

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Welp Ukraine is now openly stating why they won’t leave Bakmut yet. They’re having a 7-1 kill ratio they want to squeeze the most out of
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3677516-danilov-on-russian-military-losses-near-bakhmut-1-to-7-in-our-favor.html

If that were true then Ukraine's actions make perfect sense. I really doubt the actual casualty ratio is that favorable though.

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Bakhmut is probably gone by the end of this month, whether or not Ukraine makes the sensible decision to pull back a bit. After that though, I'm not sure where there's movement next. The fronts outside the immediate area of Bakhmut have been pretty static since the Kharkiv offensive and the retreat from Kherson. Russia's essentially running straight into a brick wall at Vuhledar. If they try to make Vuhledar the "next Bakhmut" maybe Ukraine really will get those 7:1 casualty ratios they were hoping for. If Russia insists on wearing themselves down on pointless assaults, I figure Ukraine's best bet is to try to build up their forces and supplies for an offensive in the summer.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/wgdunlop/status/1641145262209892614
https://mobile.twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1641211884194897920

bawhat?  But General Woody has been suggesting Ukraine leave for months and obviously he knows more than DoD intelligence.

Given the poor track record of US intelligence (right up to and including massive failures in both Afghanistan and Ukraine within the last two years) down the decades he probably does.

What “massive failure” in Ukraine intelligence was there? American intelligence called the time of the invasion down to the hour, all while (most) European intelligence agencies didn’t believe that an invasion would happen at all. The Ukrainian leadership  didn’t even seem to think one was likely until within 24 hours of the attack, after we told them repeatedly.

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https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russia-hundreds-t90m-received-surge-production

Russian Army Has Received Hundreds of T-90M Tanks Under Surged Production - Reports

The Russian Army has reportedly recently several hundred T-90M tanks ready for frontline operations, according to an anonymous source cited by state media outlet Sputnik, with large numbers of new T-72B3M tanks having also been delivered. The announcement closely follows indications by Deputy Chairman Russian Security Council former president Dmitry Medvedev in the penultimate week of March that 1500 of the vehicles would be produced over the next year. "We will make 1,500 tanks alone this year. You can calculate how much our enemy will get, even according to the most optimistic calculations.”

As by far the most capable tank in Russian service, the T-90M completed testing in February 2020 and joined the Army in April that year, but was acquired on a very limited scale before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian War in February. Major losses among older tank classes, and strong demonstration of the new model’s advantages, were key factors spurring a production surge.

One of the T-90M’s most notable advantages over older tanks is its integration of the 2A46M-5 gun and Kalina fire control system, which allow it to deploy the wide range specialised munitions some of which began to be seen in Ukraine in early 2023. The new tank also integrates a communication and command suite and digital communications systems significantly ahead of those of other operational Russian tanks. Its survivability benefits from the integration of the Afghanit active protection system and Relikt explosive reactive armour as well as isolation of munitions from the remainder of the vehicle internally, the benefits of which have already been seen in Ukraine..."

The Russian Army has received multiple batches of T-90Ms of unknown size since its forces began major operations in Ukraine in February 2022, with the vehicles beginning to be seen in the theatre in late April that year. Russia already comfortably outproduced all other tank manufacturers in the world combined with its T-90 output, although the large majority of these previously went to foreign clients most notably India and Algeria. The industry’s massive surplus capacity inherited from the Soviet era is expected to be key to facilitating production on a much larger scale not seen since 1991 to meet the demands of ongoing war in Ukraine and standoff with NATO. Whether production for export will continue to supplement the 1500 tanks produced for domestic use in the next year remains uncertain, with Russia’s dominant position in global markets for armour having been hard won and remaining highly prized.

Yeah, totally bro. 1500 T-90M. Thousands more to come. Pay no attention to the trainloads of T-54s coming out of storage in Siberia, I'm sure they're bringing those rust traps out of retirement because they have so many modern, functional tanks.

With reliable sources like Russian state media and even Dmitry Medvedev himself, I'll be taking this report very seriously.

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In 8 months the Russians have advanced less than 10 miles into Bakhmut from the outskirts. At the rate of ~1 mile/month they'll make it to Kyiv by April of 2053.

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Making Belgorod the primary thrust for a counter-offensive could have let Ukraine not only seize significant territory to leverage in future negotiations..

So you're suggesting hostage taking then? Because that's what terrorists do.

"Man, why won't NATO let me use their stuff to conquer Russian cities and use their citizens as bargain?"

This argument doesn't make any sense. It is not "terrorism" or "hostage taking" for a nation to attack the aggressor which has started a war with it. Was it wrong for the Allies to invade Germany and Italy in WWII? For all the deserved criticism of the Soviet Union, has anyone ever attacked them for going beyond their pre-Barbarossa borders in their counter-offensives against Germany? Was it wrong for the United States to take the fight to Japan at Okinawa, Iwo Jima, and the Marianas? Was it wrong for the Continental Army to invade British Canada in 1775? The answer is an obvious no, which is why no state in history has ever operated on such rules. When has a nation been expected to fight against an aggressor only on its own territory?

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https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/05/sad-reality-the-ukraine-war-is-now-going-russias-way/

"Sad Reality: The Ukraine War Is Now Going Russia’s Way"

The same author wrote:

Ukraine’s Long-Expected Offensive: Why It Won’t Beat Putin

Bad News: NATO Tanks, Planes, And Artillery Unlikely To Win Ukraine War

America Can’t Give Ukraine So Many Weapons A Nuclear War Starts

Why Is Europe Paying So Little To Defend Ukraine Against Russia?

Putin Could Launch A Big Winter Offensive In Ukraine To Cut Off Weapons

Putin’s Coming Winter Offensive Is A Clear Threat To Ukraine

I’m curious. Does the “Coming Winter Offensive” he wrote about refer to the Battle of Bakhmut which started in August, or Vuhledar where the Russian assaults on fortified positions failed to move the line at all? Those were the only Russian attacks I can even remember going back more than half a year.

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If people (read:Woodbury) can’t keep from clogging up the thread with personal attacks on other posters, I think mod action should be taken.

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I'm assuming all this drama (apart from Prigozhin himself feuding with MoD) is nothing until I see video proof otherwise. Ukraine couldn't possibly be so lucky as to have the Russians start shooting each other at a time like this.

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Just as there is no just actor in the proxy war in Ukraine, there is no just actor in this fight in Russia.

This is the time for a proletarian revolution!

Its not like anyone here has any influence at all over the situation.  If Wagner's going to get their hands on the nukes and send the entire world into hellfire, we might as well have fun sh**tposting before it happens.

Not a chance of that happening. We’ll be fine.

I suggest anyone actually terrified of their lives to just log off and do something they usually do for fun, but don’t treat this as a YOLO moment.

Great, PSOL is posting his nonsense here again.

The fact that you weren’t banned or muted from the thread for what you said to Andiry last year is how I know there’s no mod bias on this site.

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The negotiations have failed apparently, thank goodness

What is the matter with you?

He did the same thing in the Haiti thread when he was cheering for chaos there. A "people's revolution" of some form is an important part of his socialist eschatology, whether it takes the form of a descent into utter anarchy is no concern of his. It's a precondition of the glorious global socialist revolution that will destroy liberalism forever.

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Putin to speak soon according to the Kremlin. Will he remove Shoigu or will he order Prigozhin to stand down? The world awaits.

If Putin actually caves to this, isn't it an incredible display of weakness? As a leader you cannot allow warlords to occupy your cities in order to demand concessions. What stops Girkin or Kadyrov from pulling the same stunt 2 weeks from now, with their own demands? Putin's whole image and position of authority would crumble.

I think the smart thing from his perspective would be to crack down harshly. I'm not sure I actually buy it when Prigozhin says the Russian troops support him. At the end of the day the size of Prigozhin's current force in Russia is like 1000 people tops, and the Russian forces massively outnumber him.

Then again, it's probably in the best interest of Ukraine that Putin f***s this up, and precipitates a longer conflict that takes attention and resources away from the war.

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Putin makes a relatively strong response, and calls these actions treason...

But now what? Prigozhin demanded concessions and didn't get them. Will they actually fight now? Prigozhin's men have Rostov, and apparently now the Bugaevka border crossing and Voronezh. The longer Putin waits to address this with force, the more entrenched Wagner will become. Better for Ukraine the longer this lasts, of course.

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What will Putin do now? He just made a televised speech about them "stabbing" the Motherland in the back, is there anyway he will let Prigozhin walk after doing something like this?

Surprisingly I’m in agreement with you on this one. How the hell can you let him just get away with an act of insubordination of this magnitude? If Putin allows self-described treason and disloyalty to go unpunished his authority is weakened immensely.

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Do even 20% of Red Velvet posts in this thread involve Russia-Ukraine in any way?

Something something Global South something something russia

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Will Wagner launch a campaign in the north?

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1672960189920624640

If Putin gives Prigozhin arms, ammunition, and an army to command that close to Russia after what he just pulled, he might be the stupidest leader in Russian history.

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This is really what the offensive hinges on. The battle has been bogged down in the trenches and minefields for months, and even when the Ukrainians have advanced the Russians have always been able to (more or less) retreat back to new lines. There needs to be a breakthrough, likely on this push, or the offensive won't have accomplished much other than pushing the line back by a few miles. Here's hoping.

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https://uk.news.yahoo.com/dont-belong-ukrainians-dodging-front-142156128.html

"'Don't belong there': the Ukrainians dodging the front"

The war triggered a patriotic impulse, but some Ukrainians are refusing to fight despite societal pressures, and warnings from authorities cracking down on draft evaders amid a difficult counteroffensive.

Is it really necessary for you to make eight consecutive posts in such a short span? It’s basically spam. Why not just combine them into one larger post?

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The best place for a Ukrainian refugee to go to make sure they do not get mobilized, ironically, is Russia.   Maybe the next step for Zelensky is for him to write Putin asking him to deport the Ukrainian refugees in Russia back to Ukraine so they can be mobilized

You usually include a dubious source when making a claim like this, but Russia is pretty open about its mobilisation of Ukrainians. Don't get lazy and rely on Red Velvet (more on this below).

As it turns out, the "deportation for mobilisation" stories are (mostly) fake. The only people sent to Ukraine were those with arrest warrants for people smuggling, and, although certain politicians have called for this, there has been no official Ukrainian request to deport people for mobilisation.

The article speculates that Ukraine could attempt to prosecute people who might have bribed the military medical commission to prove they were unfit for mobilisation (and, on the basis of such prosecutions, make extradition requests), but this hasn't been done yet and it's unclear what Polish courts would do in response. Most of the men in Poland probably just found a spot on the relatively porous border and crossed it, so wouldn't be eligible under these grounds anyway. The cases could take a long time and would come up against the ECHR, although it's fair to say this hasn't always stopped Poland before.

As for why you should have brought your own source, well:

Look at this letter an Ukrainian refugee in IRELAND received from the Irish government explaining the situation where Ukraine is requesting his deportation because they’re eligible for war:

https://twitter.com/GeopolPt/status/1700586873037504990
It’s the kind of sick stuff people here only mention regarding Russia, never about Ukraine. I guess it’s also just convenient for Ireland and other countries to get rid of recent immigrants who need social support as well, less money to be spent on people who are bound to be unproductive in their first years as refugees.

*snip*

This letter is entirely fake. The source itself sets off alarm bells and is reposted by no reputable source. The community notes, for whatever they're worth, say it's fake. There are other tells here (a decent "look for scam communications" course would suffice). Indicators include:
- Incorrect spelling of the department name (no accent on dli - the propagandist probably wasn't Irish...)
- No signature
- I've not found a letter with "Republic of Ireland" specified at the bottom
- In various other ways, the format doesn't match that of other (real, recent) letters

If you're skeptical of my assessment here, that's completely fair. I happen to know a Nigerian prince who agrees with you and wants to create BRICS 2, but to do that, he'll need your credit card number and the three digits on the back.

Typical Red Velvet. Sees a single piece of fake news, writes paragraphs of text about how awful Ukraine and The West are without questioning the veracity of the propaganda he has just seen, and does not correct it or address the fact that his post was nonsense after being called out.

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Day 731 of the 15 day special military operation to deNazify Ukraine. Russia has just won its greatest victory since Mariupol. The front lines have still only moved <10 km in the past year and a half. Maybe by 2059 they’ll be within striking distance of Kyiv again.

Putin remains a brilliant strategist.

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Macron runs his mouth off, but his government is still blocking the purchase of ammunition from outside the EU despite his claim that this would no longer happen. Don’t put much stock in his word.

Just watch, the Franco-Spanish-Swedish expeditionary force is going to go into Ukraine any day now. Who ever said that the Europeans don't have independent foreign policies?