Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

This is one of those weeks where decades happen.

Yup. Whether Prigozhin wins or loses, there is going to be a very different constitutional order in Russia after this plays out.

I can kinda see this turning to a Warlord Era for Russia.

That could be nice…

I think there was a CIv IV scenario of that.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I watched some documentary the other day which claimed that Stalin was going to invade Germany, so that is why Hitler gave up on the UK to beat Stalin to the punch while Stalin was in disarray. In short, the claim that Hitler had the option to leave the division the spoils along between Russia and Germany, so that he could attend to his knitting elsewhere, was not an option.

Quite a shocker to me if true. It serves some further fact checking.

Hitler did justify the invasion of the USSR by allegedly preventing the Soviet invasion, but it was exactly the same as Putin was saying, justifying the invasion of Ukraine. Although the Soviet communists originally had a doctrine of war against the whole world, which they doublethinkely called World Revolution, Stalin changed it to Socialism in one country when he saw that Hitler was cracking the advanced European countries like nuts and Stalin chose to be content with the leftovers.

[PSOL]

Negotiations underway…

[Storr]

I guess this is what everyone's been waiting for:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672463016586014720?s=20

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I can't believe we haven't seen Putin yet. One of he first things leaders try to do during coups is try to go on the TV, radio etc. to rally support

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1672462289427918848

no clue what they're saying but this is Prigozhin

[PSOL]

Of course you can never expect anything good from peace negotiations. Lame

[Hindsight was 2020]

Wagner telegram just announced that they will hold Rostov captive and will march on Moscow if needed unless Shoigu resigns 😱

[Aurelius2]

The absolute best outcome is that Putin bloodlessly deposes Shoigu to placate Prigozhin, and puts Gerasimov or someone in his place. The fact they're talking makes me a bit more hopeful than before that there will be some sort of negotiated resolution like that. As much as I despise Putin, the world does not need a nuclear-armed country with no state capacity (look at Pakistan for a much milder version of how this is dangerous), and I don't see how Russian state capacity recovers if this drags on. At the same time, I don't see how Putin saves face even if this comes to a relatively bloodless resolution. What stops some other oligarch or warlord from doing the same thing in a month?

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

no clue what they're saying but this is Prigozhin

https://twitter.com/vidtranslator/status/1672464280086802432

English translation via bot

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

It's notable that he doesn't accuse Putin of anything (and has never done so), just the Ministry of Defense.

Rest of tweet:

"They neglect the lives of soldiers. They forgot the word “justice”, and we will bring it back.

Those, who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished.

I’m asking: no one resist. Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads.

I’m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside.

After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland.

Presidential authority, Government, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Rosgvardia, and other departments will continue operating as before.

We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers. And we will return to the frontline.

Justice in the Army will be restored. And after this, justice for the whole of Russia."

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672316037428027401?s=20

I'm sure it will end in nothing. As I suggested in this thread earlier, this is clearly being done to expose the anti-Putin Russian nationalists for security services, and also as an attempt to win over the Russian Volunteer Corps and Freedom of Russia.

[PSOL]

The best result is civil war

[Logical]

This is one of those weeks where decades happen.

Yup. Whether Prigozhin wins or loses, there is going to be a very different constitutional order in Russia after this plays out.

And just like the Kornilov affair the message local power brokers hear is clear. "The Kremlin has lost its authority. If you have your own private militia you can do anything you want."

[Aurelius2]

PSOL, don't make me run out of brainlet wojaks.

[PSOL]

PSOL, don't make me run out of brainlet wojaks.

Unlike you, I’m not a lib

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1672462289427918848

no clue what they're saying but this is Prigozhin

Meanwhile we have this story just published from "Radio Free Russia"... aka Mediazona

A video with Yevgeny Prigozhin surrounded by armed men appeared on the Wagner Unloading Telegram channel. In the video, he is in the courtyard of an administrative building, the name of which is not visible, presumably it is the General Staff of the Southern Military District, and is talking with two men in military uniform, one of whom is Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, the second looks like General Vladimir Alekseev.

During the conversation, Prigozhin claims that the Wagner PMC fighters have already shot down three military helicopters, because the military “hit civilians” and allegedly “destroyed a bus with people.” The interlocutors answer that they do not know anything about it.

Prigozhin demands that they "get the Chief of the General Staff and Shoigu", and until then he promises to "block the city of Rostov" and "go to Moscow".

https://zona.media/chronicle/isthiscoup#55326

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1672467547935916033?s=20

[Blue3]

NBC News calling it a coup attempt in progress, says that’s what the Kremlin is saying

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/russia-attempted-coup-mercenaries-wagner-rebellion-rcna90921

https://www.nbcnews.com/

Is anyone else hearing any more details? Not seeing this on CNN.

[PSOL]

The negotiations have failed apparently, thank goodness

[Ferguson97]

The negotiations have failed apparently, thank goodness

What is the matter with you?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1672469501844025344?t=4ZrWfLPUXSgt7BZNJPEAs...

[PSOL]

The negotiations have failed apparently, thank goodness

What is the matter with you?

I don’t believe in liberalism

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Meanwhile, Surovikin looks tired:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672358112953548801?s=20

"We used to win together.
We are of one blood".

(c) Surovikin

Wait a minute, Shoigu is not of the same blood as Russians. He is a Tuvan. Bad news for Shoigu.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

The negotiations have failed apparently, thank goodness

What is the matter with you?

He did the same thing in the Haiti thread when he was cheering for chaos there. A "people's revolution" of some form is an important part of his socialist eschatology, whether it takes the form of a descent into utter anarchy is no concern of his. It's a precondition of the glorious global socialist revolution that will destroy liberalism forever.

[PSOL]

The negotiations have failed apparently, thank goodness

What is the matter with you?

He did the same thing in the Haiti thread when he was cheering for chaos there. A "people's revolution" of some form is an important part of his socialist eschatology, whether it takes the form of a descent into utter anarchy is no concern of his. It's a precondition of the glorious global socialist revolution that will destroy liberalism forever.

I am following a working model