Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Possible update:

https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1629932358534045697?s=20
 

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1630217752953737216

[Storr]

Rest In Peace FF:

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1630256470615834624?s=20

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1630209935974834176?s=20

[jaichind]

This is pretty funny.   Yes, you have to pay to virtual signal.    It is not free.

[lfromnj]

Nemtsov being alive would have made no difference in the past 8 years.  Him being president in 2000 might have though.

[President Johnson]

Nemtsov being alive would have made no difference in the past 8 years.  Him being president in 2000 might have though.

I agree. If he wasn't killed already, he'd either be in prison or in exile.

[Storr]

An interview I found interesting:

https://twitter.com/laskin/status/1629688661729226752?s=20


Q: "On February 22, 2022, you published an article on openDemocracy, in which you described an upcoming major war and Putin’s dismissive attitude toward the sanctions that Western countries imposed in response. In the second half of the article, you argued that “the war with Ukraine will be the most senseless of all the wars in our history.” Do you think Russian society has started to realize this over the past year?"

A: "No, in my view, it hasn’t. It was clear to many, many people from the very beginning, but since then that category has barely grown. In Russia today, you find this powerful feeling, and it’s one of those rare occasions when Vladimir Putin connects with a significant part of society. It’s far from everyone who shares his wild theories, but he does connect with people. Even more importantly, he produces this emotion himself. And that emotion is resentment — monstrous, endless resentment. Nothing can mollify this resentment. It’s impossible to imagine what could compensate for it. It doesn’t allow people to think about establishing any kind of productive relationships with other countries."

"You know, it’s like a young child who gets deeply offended and then hurts those around him. The harm grows greater and greater, and at some point, he seriously begins destroying others’ lives, as well as his own. But the child isn’t thinking about that; he isn’t thinking that he somehow needs to build relationships."

"I think that the feeling of resentment, which has been overflowing lately in Russia, is supported at a very high level, and we haven’t yet reached the point where someone might realize that we [Russians] have normal, legitimate interests, and we need to reach them by building relationships with other countries in the right way."

[Logical]

Nemtsov being alive would have made no difference in the past 8 years.  Him being president in 2000 might have though.

I agree. If he wasn't killed already, he'd either be in prison or in exile.

He would've been a more credible opposition leader in the West than Navalny.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Rest In Peace FF:

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1630256470615834624?s=20

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1630209935974834176?s=20

Rest in peace. What a shame that Russians didn't want to listen to him until it was too late.

[Storr]

Nemtsov being alive would have made no difference in the past 8 years.  Him being president in 2000 might have though.

I agree. If he wasn't killed already, he'd either be in prison or in exile.

He would've been a more credible opposition leader in the West than Navalny.

Indeed.  There's almost no chance that Nemtsov living would have led to the overthrow of Putin, or anything on that scale. But he was a much more experienced figure than Navalny, and could have better organized the opposition to Putin. After all, there's a reason the FSB/GRU targeted Nemtsov first.

I stumbled upon this documentary about Nemtsov on twitter:

https://twitter.com/vkaramurza/status/1630083869268496385?s=20

[Woody]

As Bakhmut inevitably falls, Ukraine will soon launch an offensive towards the south to convince the West and NATO that they can still continue this war on their terms.

Unfortunately, as the frontline has stabilized and become more secure and narrow due to Russia's standing behind the Dnieper, mobilization, several KMs of flatland, and Russian fortifications & trenches installed in the Russian-controlled Zaporozhye Oblast, I am next to sure it would end in failure or result in incremental gains in the grey zones.

The terrain there is just going to make armored assaults a nightmare as long as Russians don't have any personnel shortages like they did in Kharkiv. Any crossings across the steppes there will immediately get spotted by drones and heavy artillery. If any of the remaining assault groups survive, they still have to go on the attack on entrenched positions which at this point has been held on for months by the Russians, many of the villages and roads near and beyond the frontline to the coast have been converted into military bases, supply hubs and heavy trenches, etc.

And you can't hope to attrition them as what happened in Kherson as they have a stable land bridge (Rostov-Mariupol-Tokmak-Melitopol)

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1620474493834502156

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1629443697837326337?s=20

Example:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1629732207706222592?s=20

Bruh:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1630254340689494021?s=20

[Storr]

For whatever reason, Russia isn't included on this map. But reportedly 2.9 million Ukrainians have fled to Russia. There have been claims by the Ukrainian government and NGOs that many of these people have been forcefully relocated.


https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1630178441059352578?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1630321727950528514?s=20

I could criticize a lot about Solovyov's comments, but the claim "we've liberated - well if you look at who now lives in the liberated territories - 7 or 8 million people" irked my demographically minded brain. The area that Russia has "liberated" since February 24th, 2022 and still currently occupies certainly does not have a population of 7 or 8 million people. The largest "liberated" city of Mariupol had around 425,000 people, before the Russians completely destroyed it.

Next are:

Melitopol: 150,000
Berdyansk: 108,000
Sievierodonetsk: 101,000
Lysychansk: 95,000
Bakhmut: 72,000
(the above city is not occupied, but increasingly is looking like it will be captured by Russia and included for perspective on how lightly populated the territory taken and still held by Russia since February 24th is)
Rubizhne: 56,000
Enerhodar: 53,000
Nova Kakhovka: 45,000

If he means all of the territory Russia "annexed" in 2022, then he's correct. The combined 2021 Ukrainian estimated populations of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia Oblasts is 8,904,824.

But Russia doesn't control all of that territory so.... not all of the people living there have been "liberated". In addition, the most populous parts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts have been occupied by "separatists" since 2014, so people living there can't be considered to have been  "liberated" since the full scale invasion last year. No doubt the population is significantly reduced because of the war, anyway. People in the Ukrainian held parts of the Donbass had a few months to flee west before Russia gave up on taking Kyiv and shifted focus to "liberating" the Donbass.

[Torie]

Whatever the number, a more accurate description is that they liberated the real estate from human habitation.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

As Bakhmut inevitably falls, Ukraine will soon launch an offensive towards the south to convince the West and NATO that they can still continue this war on their terms.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile on the Economic Front, looks like Uncle Sam might be stepping up to help Ukraine out a bit after all of the economic devastation caused by the brutal and unprovoked Russian Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine 2.0

Not an expert on these subjects, but personally I would imagine the US will be able to help convince other allies, including those not actively involved in providing direct military aid to help provide economic aid to Ukraine which will cover the $38 Billion dollar deficit to keep the government functioning.

Quite frankly, although not covered in the article, one must certainly ask the question to what extent can Russian assets be seized and held as collateral to help fund not only existing Ukrainian Government financial obligations, but also to help recover some of the money which will be required for a long term rebuilding of the Ukrainian Infrastructure and Economy after all the devastation which Mr. Putin specifically, and the Russian Government in general, brought as part of an elective war of aggression.

It is pretty clear to my uninformed eyes that there are hundreds of billions of dollars in assets stashed away which can and should be immediately seized and held.

We need secondary sanctions hitting hard.... Russia started the war and any government benefiting from favorable trade relationships allowing Russia to smuggle $$$, and any companies involved in such activities should be targeted.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited Kyiv on Monday, the latest high-profile trip aimed at sending a message of American commitment to supporting the country’s defense against Russia’s invasion, including with financial aid.

Ms. Yellen met with top Ukrainian officials, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and discussed the rollout of about $10 billion in financial assistance for Ukraine, part of a $45 billion package of measures to support Ukraine’s defense and U.S. allies that Congress approved in December.

“I want you to know this: You are not alone. We are with you. The United States has your back—and we will stand with you for as long as it takes,” Ms. Yellen said in Kyiv, where she announced the disbursement of the first $1.2 billion tranche of economic aid.

Mr. Zelensky’s government, unable to borrow on international bond markets, estimates that it will need around $38 billion in financing this year from the U.S., the European Union and other international supporters to keep its government functioning.

Kyiv is in talks with the International Monetary Fund about a loan program that it hopes will bolster trust in its economic management and encourage other financial contributions. Ms. Yellen is pushing for the IMF to soon establish a funding program for Ukraine. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva traveled to Ukraine on Feb. 21, and officials are hoping to have an IMF program for Ukraine in place by the end of March.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/janet-yellen-visits-ukraine-to-discuss-economic-support-3e50d2d7?mod=hp_lead_pos6

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1625993969854214146

Ukrainian source basically confirms that 7% of a university program is dead which is probably like 15% of the male alumnus.  Sad to see and also shows worrying signs of Ukrainian casualties. This is both Zelensky's head university(he went to a subdivision in his home town) and Victoria Spartz's.

Even if its sad it is interesting to see elites dying for their country. Been a while since we saw something like this in America where ever since post WW2 we have merely sent the proles into all the wars while the elites actually died and fought in WW2 such as JFK giving up his back for the country.

[TheReckoning]

Would you prefer unification under KMT or unification under CCP?

The party I really support is the KMT of the 1930s-1960s.  The KMT today is no longer that KMT anymore.  CCP, if anything, is closer to the KMT of the 1930s-1950s than the KMT today.  So between the two, I would still say CCP despite my historical attachment to KMT.  My answer back in the 1990s would still be KMT but a lot has changed since the 1990s.  My ideal scenario of course would be some sort of monarchial restoration.  1949 was clearly a huge mistake but 1911 was also a mistake in my view.  I prefer to roll all of that back.  In the real world, I guess CCP, warts and all, would come closest to getting my support to lead a reunited China. 

Would you say you remain more pro-ROC than pro-PRC, in terms of who will continue the legacy of China?

[lfromnj]

As Bakhmut inevitably falls, Ukraine will soon launch an offensive towards the south to convince the West and NATO that they can still continue this war on their terms.

It is about to fall unless the Ukrainians have a trick up your ass.

[Badger]

As Bakhmut inevitably falls, Ukraine will soon launch an offensive towards the south to convince the West and NATO that they can still continue this war on their terms.

It is about to fall unless the Ukrainians have a trick up your ass.

Sorry, how long have we been hearing this now? Particularly from Woody?

[lfromnj]

As Bakhmut inevitably falls, Ukraine will soon launch an offensive towards the south to convince the West and NATO that they can still continue this war on their terms.

It is about to fall unless the Ukrainians have a trick up your ass.

Sorry, how long have we been hearing this now? Particularly from Woody?

He said in the 2nd week of Febuary it should in fall in 2 weeks. He was a bit overoptimistic for his side but the city basically surrounded on all directions except some dirt roads to the west. It really will either take some miracle to save it.

[Woody]

The 'Stupky' (north) district fell yesterday to Wagner. Meanwhile east of the Bakhmutivka river Ukrainians are finally withdrawing, they will probably be gone from the eastern part of the city either today or tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/TWWTweeter/status/1630470915887710208?cxt=HHwWgIC-4ZmqzKAtAA...
https://twitter.com/TWWTweeter/status/1630470927644237824

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1630342086686908416
https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1630336452595687424?cxt=HHwWgICxlbSXj6AtAAA...

[Woody]

Wagner has been following the rail line to Bohdanivka/spreading out from it to the south. They are dangerously close to physically encircling the AFU in Bakhmut, instead of just having fire control. (Deepstatemap/Suriyak)

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1630354600329981953?cxt=HHwWgsC9qd-3l6AtAAA...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630477868462493696?s=20

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630481631306711040?s=20