Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[oldtimer]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-08/russian-budget-swings-to-surplus-despite-plunging-energy-revenue

"Russian Budget Swings to Surplus Despite Plunging Energy Revenue"

The surplus in August reached almost 456 billion rubles ($4.7 billion) in one of the biggest monthly hauls this year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data published on Friday. At a televised government meeting just hours earlier, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin put the latest surplus at 230 billion rubles.

Just to be clear, this is a feature of a weak RUB.   The Russian government has a tradeoff policy nob when it comes to the RUB.  A strong RUB means lower inflation but a greater budget deficit.  A weaker RUB means higher inflation but a better picture of the budget deficit.  This became a problem earlier in 2023 when energy fell and a strong RUB hammered the Russian fiscal picture so a need to shift to a weak RUB was needed even if that meant higher inflation.

Energy prices are back up.  If the Russian government expected it to stay up then it will most likely move RUB to be stronger to help on the inflation front.  They do not seem to be doing that which means they expect the world economy to be weaker than expected later in 2023 and 2024 in which case energy prices will fall again and the RUB needs to stay weak to keep the Russian budget deficit in check.

What a bunch of scrooges, they prefer to lose the war rather than run a budget deficit.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1700945656272040017?s=20
😗

[jaichind]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/10/ukraines-counteroffensive-is-stalling-the-west-must-prepare/

"Ukraine’s counter-offensive is stalling. The West must prepare for humiliation"

Time is running out for Ukraine. After 18 months of war, it is no longer a question of if the Western alliance will falter, but when.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-08/russian-budget-swings-to-surplus-despite-plunging-energy-revenue

"Russian Budget Swings to Surplus Despite Plunging Energy Revenue"

The surplus in August reached almost 456 billion rubles ($4.7 billion) in one of the biggest monthly hauls this year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data published on Friday. At a televised government meeting just hours earlier, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin put the latest surplus at 230 billion rubles.

Just to be clear, this is a feature of a weak RUB.   The Russian government has a tradeoff policy nob when it comes to the RUB.  A strong RUB means lower inflation but a greater budget deficit.  A weaker RUB means higher inflation but a better picture of the budget deficit.  This became a problem earlier in 2023 when energy fell and a strong RUB hammered the Russian fiscal picture so a need to shift to a weak RUB was needed even if that meant higher inflation.

Energy prices are back up.  If the Russian government expected it to stay up then it will most likely move RUB to be stronger to help on the inflation front.  They do not seem to be doing that which means they expect the world economy to be weaker than expected later in 2023 and 2024 in which case energy prices will fall again and the RUB needs to stay weak to keep the Russian budget deficit in check.

What a bunch of scrooges, they prefer to lose the war rather than run a budget deficit.

Running a deficit requires people willing to lend you money.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

The best place for a Ukrainian refugee to go to make sure they do not get mobilized, ironically, is Russia.   Maybe the next step for Zelensky is for him to write Putin asking him to deport the Ukrainian refugees in Russia back to Ukraine so they can be mobilized

You usually include a dubious source when making a claim like this, but Russia is pretty open about its mobilisation of Ukrainians. Don't get lazy and rely on Red Velvet (more on this below).

As it turns out, the "deportation for mobilisation" stories are (mostly) fake. The only people sent to Ukraine were those with arrest warrants for people smuggling, and, although certain politicians have called for this, there has been no official Ukrainian request to deport people for mobilisation.

The article speculates that Ukraine could attempt to prosecute people who might have bribed the military medical commission to prove they were unfit for mobilisation (and, on the basis of such prosecutions, make extradition requests), but this hasn't been done yet and it's unclear what Polish courts would do in response. Most of the men in Poland probably just found a spot on the relatively porous border and crossed it, so wouldn't be eligible under these grounds anyway. The cases could take a long time and would come up against the ECHR, although it's fair to say this hasn't always stopped Poland before.

As for why you should have brought your own source, well:

Look at this letter an Ukrainian refugee in IRELAND received from the Irish government explaining the situation where Ukraine is requesting his deportation because they’re eligible for war:

https://twitter.com/GeopolPt/status/1700586873037504990
It’s the kind of sick stuff people here only mention regarding Russia, never about Ukraine. I guess it’s also just convenient for Ireland and other countries to get rid of recent immigrants who need social support as well, less money to be spent on people who are bound to be unproductive in their first years as refugees.

*snip*

This letter is entirely fake. The source itself sets off alarm bells and is reposted by no reputable source. The community notes, for whatever they're worth, say it's fake. There are other tells here (a decent "look for scam communications" course would suffice). Indicators include:
- Incorrect spelling of the department name (no accent on dli - the propagandist probably wasn't Irish...)
- No signature
- I've not found a letter with "Republic of Ireland" specified at the bottom
- In various other ways, the format doesn't match that of other (real, recent) letters

If you're skeptical of my assessment here, that's completely fair. I happen to know a Nigerian prince who agrees with you and wants to create BRICS 2, but to do that, he'll need your credit card number and the three digits on the back.

Typical Red Velvet. Sees a single piece of fake news, writes paragraphs of text about how awful Ukraine and The West are without questioning the veracity of the propaganda he has just seen, and does not correct it or address the fact that his post was nonsense after being called out.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1700978707396206856?s=20>
No panic

[2952-0-0]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-08/russian-budget-swings-to-surplus-despite-plunging-energy-revenue

"Russian Budget Swings to Surplus Despite Plunging Energy Revenue"

The surplus in August reached almost 456 billion rubles ($4.7 billion) in one of the biggest monthly hauls this year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data published on Friday. At a televised government meeting just hours earlier, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin put the latest surplus at 230 billion rubles.

Just to be clear, this is a feature of a weak RUB.   The Russian government has a tradeoff policy nob when it comes to the RUB.  A strong RUB means lower inflation but a greater budget deficit.  A weaker RUB means higher inflation but a better picture of the budget deficit.  This became a problem earlier in 2023 when energy fell and a strong RUB hammered the Russian fiscal picture so a need to shift to a weak RUB was needed even if that meant higher inflation.

Energy prices are back up.  If the Russian government expected it to stay up then it will most likely move RUB to be stronger to help on the inflation front.  They do not seem to be doing that which means they expect the world economy to be weaker than expected later in 2023 and 2024 in which case energy prices will fall again and the RUB needs to stay weak to keep the Russian budget deficit in check.

What a bunch of scrooges, they prefer to lose the war rather than run a budget deficit.

Running a deficit requires people willing to lend you money.

If Putin was confident that the Russian people were willing to make a sacrifice for the war effort, he would have no problem calling on Russians to buy war bonds for that purpose. But if that's not the case, he can always resort to the printing press.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1699834033222611355?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1699834033222611355?s=20

Wonderful work from our great intelligence community!

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/10/ukraines-counteroffensive-is-stalling-the-west-must-prepare/

"Ukraine’s counter-offensive is stalling. The West must prepare for humiliation"

Time is running out for Ukraine. After 18 months of war, it is no longer a question of if the Western alliance will falter, but when.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your own eyes and ears.
It was their final, most essential, command".

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/10/ukraines-counteroffensive-is-stalling-the-west-must-prepare/

"Ukraine’s counter-offensive is stalling. The West must prepare for humiliation"

Time is running out for Ukraine. After 18 months of war, it is no longer a question of if the Western alliance will falter, but when.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your own eyes and ears.
It was their final, most essential, command".

A wise man once said, hope for the best, prepare for the worst. The opening is melodramatic, but I would chalk that up to clickbait-y titling (a common practice in the news business).

[jaichind]

Democratic Initiatives Foundation poll in Ukraine has

1) By a 90 to 7 margin respondents believe that Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to re-capture the entire territory of Ukraine
2) By a 63 to 30 margin respondents are opposed to direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Democratic Initiatives Foundation poll in Ukraine has

1) By a 90 to 7 margin respondents believe that Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to re-capture the entire territory of Ukraine
2) By a 63 to 30 margin respondents are opposed to direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia

With numbers like this, the prospects for Ukraine to negotiate look remote. Zelensky knows how his people feel...even if he wanted to cut a compromise with Putin, his people would not let him. Not at this stage.

[jaichind]

With numbers like this, the prospects for Ukraine to negotiate look remote. Zelensky knows how his people feel...even if he wanted to cut a compromise with Putin, his people would not let him. Not at this stage.

Given these numbers, I think Zelensky will be out of power if he starts talks with Russia and agrees to anything remotely to what the Russian minimum demand would be.  Given all this, there is no alternative to indefinite conflict.

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1700428743049642392?s=20
Another day of Russian artillery getting wrecked

One can say the Russians and the Ukrainians are their mutual most prolific trainers.

Or one can say that this table is a flat out lie.

Oryx, Andrew Perpetua, and Lostinwar all have similar numbers so quite frankly cope vatnik

Lol, I don't have to cope, I know and you know that the table is untrue. If it was true than the Ukraininans would be able to take some village which have let's say more than 2000 people living in ti pre war.

But for the sake of anti vatnik coping let's pretend that the post you quoted is true. How many Russian artillery pieces would needed to be destroyed so that Ukraine on a given week takes some meaningful territory? A million, two millions?

So, quite frankly you're full of BS.

The fight for Robotyne took long because it was happening mostly on the heavily mined open fields on its flanks not in the town proper. Once UA actually entered the town it was liberated about a week later. Using it as a smoking gun to try and say Russian causality reports are bs is deeply ignorant but on brand for the pro Russia crowd

You calling me ignorant will not change the fact that numbers you so eagerly post are total bs because they are not corresponding with the situation on the ground. As I already said if these were true than the villages like Robotine would fall much quicker and Ukrainians would already be somewhere in Melitopol at least, not to mention Tokmak. It really doesn't matter where the battles were taking place for an argument about truthfullness of these kind of numbers. It's pretty simple in fact: they destroy so many artillery pieces in a day, there's no counter-battery fire, they advance much quicker.. In Robotine or elsewhere.

[bilaps]

With numbers like this, the prospects for Ukraine to negotiate look remote. Zelensky knows how his people feel...even if he wanted to cut a compromise with Putin, his people would not let him. Not at this stage.

Given these numbers, I think Zelensky will be out of power if he starts talks with Russia and agrees to anything remotely to what the Russian minimum demand would be.  Given all this, there is no alternative to indefinite conflict.

When Zelensky decides he wants a comrpomise than the numbers are going to change. Propaganda will turn in other direction, all media in Ukraine is controlled by Zelensky anyway.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1700428743049642392?s=20
Another day of Russian artillery getting wrecked

One can say the Russians and the Ukrainians are their mutual most prolific trainers.

Or one can say that this table is a flat out lie.

Oryx, Andrew Perpetua, and Lostinwar all have similar numbers so quite frankly cope vatnik

Lol, I don't have to cope, I know and you know that the table is untrue. If it was true than the Ukraininans would be able to take some village which have let's say more than 2000 people living in ti pre war.

But for the sake of anti vatnik coping let's pretend that the post you quoted is true. How many Russian artillery pieces would needed to be destroyed so that Ukraine on a given week takes some meaningful territory? A million, two millions?

So, quite frankly you're full of BS.

The fight for Robotyne took long because it was happening mostly on the heavily mined open fields on its flanks not in the town proper. Once UA actually entered the town it was liberated about a week later. Using it as a smoking gun to try and say Russian causality reports are bs is deeply ignorant but on brand for the pro Russia crowd

You calling me ignorant will not change the fact that numbers you so eagerly post are total bs because they are not corresponding with the situation on the ground. As I already said if these were true than the villages like Robotine would fall much quicker and Ukrainians would already be somewhere in Melitopol at least, not to mention Tokmak. It really doesn't matter where the battles were taking place for an argument about truthfullness of these kind of numbers. It's pretty simple in fact: they destroy so many artillery pieces in a day, there's no counter-battery fire, they advance much quicker.. In Robotine or elsewhere.

They totally can because they still have mines and drones also Russians complain on telegram all the time that have struggle with counter-battery fire due to losses so apparently according to you multiple accounts that track photo identified losses and Russians themselves are engaging in some conspiracy to exaggerate Russian losses 🙄

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1701204495563104492?s=20
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1701205023550550461
Ukraine yesterday apparently took back an oil rig off Crimea. Interesting

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1699834033222611355?s=20

Wonderful work from our great intelligence community!

Truth has value.
Honesty is rewarded.
That being said, I doubt this was actually created by the CIA, or if it was, they made it to make their Russian counterparts paranoid and mistrustful, not to actually fish for information or leaks. Others in this thread would have better insights than me as to whether it would actually be effective.

[pppolitics]

With numbers like this, the prospects for Ukraine to negotiate look remote. Zelensky knows how his people feel...even if he wanted to cut a compromise with Putin, his people would not let him. Not at this stage.

Given these numbers, I think Zelensky will be out of power if he starts talks with Russia and agrees to anything remotely to what the Russian minimum demand would be.  Given all this, there is no alternative to indefinite conflict.

There is not going to be "indefinite conflict".

Most Russian citizens still live in relative comfort, insulated from the war.

Once ethnic Russians from Moscow and St. Peterburg are sent to die in trenches in Ukraine, Putin won't be Russian "president" anymore.

[pppolitics]

TRANSLATION: Scholz is still hiding behind Biden because he can't make any decision himself.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1701238082257764614

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1701152431407538275
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1701213845803413941
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1701148985115779164

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1701246932557943004

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1701246932557943004

And the transport costs to China are probably higher too, right?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1701204495563104492?s=20
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1701205023550550461
Ukraine yesterday apparently took back an oil rig off Crimea. Interesting

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1701326869855871069?s=20