Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Inmate Trump]

He's not even at 51% on Rasmussen right now.

He makes up poll numbers.  Not the first time.

Then gets mad when a legitimate polling firm releases a poll showing him with a bad rating, and calls it fake.

[pbrower2a]

It is Nate Silver who says that one can add 7% to early approval ratings and get the effect of a competent and spirited campaign. Such is what his article The Myth of 50% (from 2010) implies.

This does apply to incumbent Senators and Governors seeking re-election and may not apply to Congressional representatives (whose districts can change fairly rapidly in composition as well as in shape)  and imperfectly to the Presidency. A reasonable assumption is that the politician avoid scandal, and with the President, catastrophes involving foreign policy. It seemed to apply reasonably well to Obama, but Trump is proudly not Obama.

With Trump the public attitudes are already in extreme polarization, so campaigning may work more to solidify attitudes of people on both sides of the divide of "re-elect or replace". His sophomoric appeals may win love from those who voted enthusiastically for him in 2016, but not keep people who have since become disillusioned with him, let alone get grudging acceptance from those who voted against him in 2016.

Obama didn't cause any big problems; after all he did get the worst terrorist in history whacked. The recovery from a very nasty meltdown continued. He didn't egg people on except on "Birther" nonsense that by then more helped him than hurt him.

Trump has the worst relationship that any President in modern times with the military, the intelligence services, the diplomatic corps, and federal law enforcement, practically as if he were a left-wing extremist. Obama had no such problem, and he could turn 45% approval into a 51% share of the popular vote.  Trump will have that problem; it will not go away.

Carter ended up with political chaos, but at the least he would have been seen as 'well-meaning'.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), Jan 17-20, 1100 adults including 992 RV

Adults:

Approve 37 (-2)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

RV:

Approve 37 (-1)
Disapprove 60 (+2)

[emailking]

So is Silver saying you can add 7% to approval rating as an estimate of what the vote share would be in an election?

I figured Trump was clumsily referring to a shy Trump effect or something.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump hit 51 in Rasmussen one day last week, which is likely what he's referring to.  It was just a one-shot, though, and went back into the 40's the next day.

[Person Man]

Trump hit 51 in Rasmussen one day last week, which is likely what he's referring to.  It was just a one-shot, though, and went back into the 40's the next day.

I totally believe he can get 51% of the PV, or at least 51% of the TPV if the electorate looked like the 2004 or 2010 where Republicans turned out by so much they reached or exceeded parity.

[Gass3268]

Monmouth

Approve 43% (+/-)
Disapporve 52% (+2)

Poll Source

[American2020]

From CNN Polls

The Trump argument here is clear: You may not like me as a person. You may not like my policies on, well, lots of stuff. But you are doing well. The stock market is at all-time highs. Why then would we ever consider changing horses in midstream?

Will Trump do that? Probably not. He lacks the message discipline to stay on even one message for a few days a time. But if he does wind up snatching victory from the jaws of defeat again in November, it's that economic approval number that explains it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/20/politics/donald-trump-victory-2020/index.html

Of course, elections aren't just about voter preference. They're about enthusiasm, too, because enthusiasm correlates with turnout.
Trump's approval rating is 54% among voters in the battleground states who are at least very enthusiastic. His disapproval rating among those voters is 45%, which puts his net approval rating at +9 points among them. Last month, it was +10 points. These two results are within the margin of error of each other.
Trump is doing his best among enthusiastic voters nationally, too. His approval rating is 49% with those who are at least very enthusiastic. His approval rating is 51% among those who are extremely enthusiastic. Last month, it was a similar 48%.
Now, none of these numbers means Trump is necessarily a favorite for reelection. Plenty of unethusiastic voters will cast ballots, and the battleground states are close.
Still, our poll continues to tell a complicated story. Trump may not be liked by Americans, and a majority may even want him thrown out of office. But he still could easily win reelection.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/21/politics/trump-approval-rating-analysis/index.html

[Person Man]

From CNN Polls

The Trump argument here is clear: You may not like me as a person. You may not like my policies on, well, lots of stuff. But you are doing well. The stock market is at all-time highs. Why then would we ever consider changing horses in midstream?

Will Trump do that? Probably not. He lacks the message discipline to stay on even one message for a few days a time. But if he does wind up snatching victory from the jaws of defeat again in November, it's that economic approval number that explains it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/20/politics/donald-trump-victory-2020/index.html

Of course, elections aren't just about voter preference. They're about enthusiasm, too, because enthusiasm correlates with turnout.
Trump's approval rating is 54% among voters in the battleground states who are at least very enthusiastic. His disapproval rating among those voters is 45%, which puts his net approval rating at +9 points among them. Last month, it was +10 points. These two results are within the margin of error of each other.
Trump is doing his best among enthusiastic voters nationally, too. His approval rating is 49% with those who are at least very enthusiastic. His approval rating is 51% among those who are extremely enthusiastic. Last month, it was a similar 48%.
Now, none of these numbers means Trump is necessarily a favorite for reelection. Plenty of unethusiastic voters will cast ballots, and the battleground states are close.
Still, our poll continues to tell a complicated story. Trump may not be liked by Americans, and a majority may even want him thrown out of office. But he still could easily win reelection.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/21/politics/trump-approval-rating-analysis/index.html

It’s basically an extreme version of what happened with Obama. As long as he we was on the ballot, he couldn’t be touched. He was the voice of a generation and the only one who could handle health care reform and the recovery, even if his vision for America made most Americans uncomfortable or even depressed.

When he was off the ballot and especially when it was discovered that Obama couldn’t be replaced so easily, Democrats struggled.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1219691444358860802

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1219371954236481537

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Everyone keeps saying PA is redder than MI and WI and they can never back up their claim.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult, Jan. 13-15, 1996 RV

Approve 43
Disapprove 54

Strongly approve 25
Strongly disapprove 42

2020:

Definitely vote for Trump 30
Probably Trump 9
Probably someone else 7
Definitely someone else 45
(Net: Trump 39, someone else 52)

[pbrower2a]

So is Silver saying you can add 7% to approval rating as an estimate of what the vote share would be in an election?

I figured Trump was clumsily referring to a shy Trump effect or something.

Actually 6.5% to "early support" if the incumbent doesn't foul up, and runs a spirited and effective campaign to get the vote share of a binary election 50% works in any state. That is a fair description of how things worked for Obama.

Figure that campaigning and either governing or legislating get different levels of support. Guessing that an incumbent Governor or Senator starts with about 53% of the popular vote; it is not long before that politician finds that the political process makes some promises impossible to achieve. Demographic change might create some problems for a pol. Then come the events from wars to economic downturns. Once politicians are governing or legislating they can't appeal to the voters with electoral campaigns. OK, Trump does that, holding rallies reminiscent of those of Fidel Castro... so he may have lesser support from which to build.

Damning scandals are rare -- but figure that some blunder into them or think that they can get away with them. Very often the politician who gets caught in a breaking scandal has found that the political journalists give him a cold shoulder and have no good to say about them. Nobody wants to get enmeshed with a loser.

Trump is proud above all else that he is not Obama. He could have chosen a more apt antithesis, in view of the chaos of his administration, frequent scandals, and witless self-praise that make him so obnoxious and offensive. OK, out comes the partisan hack -- but "Mister, we could use a man like Eisenhower again". Ike was a Republican, but I think he would be more proud of Obama than of Trump.

You can add 7% or so under the best conditions and find that someone down 44-46 to a generic opponent from the other Party in February before the election ends up winning 51-49. Incumbents often come from behind to get re-elected... but not too far behind. Someone whose 'early support' is in the low forties has his work cut out,  needing everything to go right just to win. Middle-to-upper thirties? Wishful thinking and two bucks will get you a two-dollar coffee. Without the wishful thinking, one gets the same coffee. Below that one sees politicians who decide not to run again, get defeated in primaries, or get indicted for a scandal of some kind.

Trump can be re-elected if:

1. the left side of the political spectrum is itself divided.
2. he gets a war that looks good until election time.
3. he cheats effectively, as with a rigged election

He really must undo the scandals and convince many Americans that he has turned over a new leaf. I doubt that he could. Personal character almost never changes for the better when one is in one's seventies. He is not getting smarter or wiser. Obama, in contrast, could catch on to a blunder and stop further harm as when opining that people in certain parts of America too loved their guns and Bibles to support liberal policies... Trump has no such knack.

Other factors impossible to quantify, such as charisma and genuine achievements, come into play. Those preclude measurement or estimate until the election itself.

[wbrocks67]

The "extremely enthusiastic" numbers are suspect (Trump ABOVE water in approval?) especially after 2018, but we're also in the middle of a Democratic primary, so....

[wbrocks67]

Everyone keeps saying PA is redder than MI and WI and they can never back up their claim.

This. 2016 is looking more like an anomaly rather than a trend. At least at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation, Dec. 20-30, 1215 adults (usual caveats about polling during the holidays; prior poll Nov. 7-12)

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

Strongly approve 23 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Jan. 19-21, 1500 adults including 1176 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 50 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 45 (nc), No 43 (nc)

Remove Trump? Yes 43 (+1), No 42 (-1)


RV:

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 51 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 48 (nc), No 47 (nc)

Remove Trump? Yes 45 (nc), No 47 (+1)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 45 (-2), Trump 44 (+2)

GCB (RV only): D 44 (-2), R 43 (+1)

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DaviSusan/status/1220063455287398400?s=20

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's the Pew poll: https://www.people-press.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2020/01/1-22-20-Impeachment-for-release-2.0.pdf.  Last poll (September) was 40/59.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, Jan. 16-21, 1353 adults (prior poll Dec. 5-9)

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 58 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

Remove Trump? Yes 45, No 40 (strongly 42/33)

[President Johnson]

AP/NORC, Jan. 16-21, 1353 adults (prior poll Dec. 5-9)

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 58 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

Remove Trump? Yes 45, No 40 (strongly 42/33)

If the numbers hold up to November 3 and the Democratic nominee isn't going nuts, the God Emperor will be in serious trouble.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, Jan. 16-21, 1353 adults (prior poll Dec. 5-9)

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 58 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

Remove Trump? Yes 45, No 40 (strongly 42/33)

If the numbers hold up to November 3 and the Democratic nominee isn't going nuts, the God Emperor will be in serious trouble.

The numbers look terrible, but a couple of cautionary points:

1. It's a poll of all adults, not of voters.

2. AP/NORC is consistently one of Trump's worse pollsters.  538 adjusted this result to 43/54.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Jan. 21-22, 1108 adults including 899 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)

RV:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

Strongly approve 25 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)


Zzzzzz...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump's approval is now at -12.0 in the 538 average, returning to levels seen in late Nov. and early Dec.  This has pretty much erased the holiday bump (it got as close as -8.2 a week before Christmas).

[wbrocks67]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Jan. 19-21, 1500 adults including 1176 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 50 (+2)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 45 (nc), No 43 (nc)

Remove Trump? Yes 43 (+1), No 42 (-1)


RV:

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 51 (-1)

Strongly approve 32 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

Approve of impeachment? Yes 48 (nc), No 47 (nc)

Remove Trump? Yes 45 (nc), No 47 (+1)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 45 (-2), Trump 44 (+2)

GCB (RV only): D 44 (-2), R 43 (+1)

What is going on with YouGov's sample lately? The difference between adults and RV should not be that much, and the 2020/GCB was like Dems +7-10 just a few weeks ago.