2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/stephanixmedina/status/1309119179610632193

[It’s so Joever]

Tender: Alright let’s be reasonable, these early votes will obviously skew Biden due to the unique circumstances compared to 2016, let’s not draw conclusions from the early vote.
Atlas: Okay.

Atlas a week later: Oh wow look at all the ENTHUSIASM! The suburbs are going to bring this in for Biden!!!

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/stephanixmedina/status/1309119179610632193

what do they mean by "in dupage of all places"?

[Xing]

I'd wait until we get at least 1 million votes in NC (and 2 million in FL) before analyzing any of the data. Even then, the early vote in those states still isn't as good of an indicator as to how the results will look as the early vote in NV.

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm sorry but I have to think such insane early voting has to help Democrats if it stays like this.  Even though the Falls Church voters would almost certainly vote on Election Day, you never know, a few might have something come up, etc.  This banks their votes now.  Plus the party doesn't have to worry about them and invest resources last minute on voters who have already turned out.  If a similar thing happens in Philly and its burbs I think that's a good sign.

Pennsylvania is unique among the swing states because it has no-excuse mail voting but no early in-person voting at all (other than dropping off a mail ballot that the voter already requested and was mailed).  Basically the opposite of Texas (highly restrictive mail voting with no COVID excuse, but long period of in-person early voting).  This is why the vagaries of mail voting in PA are getting so much scrutiny. 

That was true until this year - but many counties, at least in Philly/Southeast are opening satellite election offices to basically do pseudo "early voting" this year. I think the Philly ones open this week or next week

The "all-in-one" absentee satellite offices haven't opened yet and are being challenged in court.

They are opening September 29th regardless: https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/philadelphia-early-voting-locations-2020-election-20200918.html

OK, looks promising.  If the whole thing happens under poll worker supervision, a lot of the high profile errors that could invalidate a ballot can be avoided.

The only thing I worry about pessimistically is that because these are new, that no one really knows about them. It would be really great if enough people utilized them, and I hope they do, but I fear many people don't realize they're even opening

This is why I am worried that the D's are using their cash advantage too much on advertising and not on ground game.  They need to make sure every Democrat in Philly votes. 

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/stephanixmedina/status/1309119179610632193

what do they mean by "in dupage of all places"?

They're probably stuck in 2012 and don't realize how strongly educated suburbs like DuPage have shifted.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1309246909144539136

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LET'S MOTHERF#CKING DO THIS SH!T!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

THIS ONE IS FOR DADDA ROBINETTE B!TCHES!

[Stuart98]

THIS ONE IS FOR DADDA ROBINETTE B!TCHES!

Eww, judicial elections.

What are the chances all of those supreme court candidates win and how does that change the make-up of the Texas Supreme Court if they do?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

THIS ONE IS FOR DADDA ROBINETTE B!TCHES!

Eww, judicial elections.

What are the chances all of those supreme court candidates win and how does that change the make-up of the Texas Supreme Court if they do?

Ikr. Unfortunately very slim, as all of them are elected by the entire state of Texas, hence every supreme court member of Texas is a republican.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1309246909144539136

Just one day? I mean I guess it's better than nothing but at least 3 days would've been better

[JerryArkansas]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1309246909144539136

Just one day? I mean I guess it's better than nothing but at least 3 days would've been better

At least they'll have a buildup of results to release on election day as polls close. 

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1309246909144539136

Guess the Republicans there don't want any part of Trump's steal the electors plan...

[Non Swing Voter]

Falls Church, VA up to 14.4% turnout.

[DINGO Joe]

Falls Church, VA up to 14.4% turnout.

If they keep up this pace, turnout will be 140-150% by election day.

[sobo]

Falls Church, VA up to 14.4% turnout.

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1309262359240871937

The number of votes cast is already 19.4% of the total number cast in 2016

[Non Swing Voter]

Falls Church, VA up to 14.4% turnout.

If they keep up this pace, turnout will be 140-150% by election day.

Trump election fraud claims will be validated.

[Non Swing Voter]

Falls Church, VA up to 14.4% turnout.

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1309262359240871937

The number of votes cast is already 19.4% of the total number cast in 2016

I'm really interested to see where we are in a week.  It would be amazing if it gets to 50% of 2016 turnout by October.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1309246909144539136

Just one day? I mean I guess it's better than nothing but at least 3 days would've been better

Agreed.

Apparently this only applies to municipalities with populations at or above 25,000, which is completely arbitrary, imho. This also means we may see a counting bias in favor of larger cities and townships on election night. Just something to keep in mind.

[Ferguson97]

Based on return results so far, I think we're going to have historically high turnout.

[Non Swing Voter]

Georgia early vote updated: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA.html

a little over 44,000, 58% white

[Tender Branson]

Tender: Alright let’s be reasonable, these early votes will obviously skew Biden due to the unique circumstances compared to 2016, let’s not draw conclusions from the early vote.

Atlas: Okay.

Atlas a week later: Oh wow look at all the ENTHUSIASM! The suburbs are going to bring this in for Biden!!!

Yeah, this.

There will be hordes of Trump voters on Election Day.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/ckelly2528/vizhome/PollingAverages/MAIN?publish=yes#!/vizhome/VotebyMailTracker/Dashboard1
nice tool visualizing ev + mail in votes/requests

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

THIS ONE IS FOR DADDA ROBINETTE B!TCHES!

On a note before anyone else does this I'd advise to look at the law in your state.

Upon a quick search it is legal to share ballot photos in Texas...but only of mail-in ones. It's not legal to take pictures in the polling place. So this post is legal but be aware.