2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Just got my ballot emailed to me while riding the train home and nearly sh-t myself

what state are you in that does email balloting?

Yeah, I don’t see how that can be a thing.

[AGA]

Requests as a % of total turnout in 2016:

Update of this map:

I THINK that map looks like a tentative positive development for Democrats, right?

Why would it? Democrats are more likely to vote by mail instead of in person.

[Badger]

Requests as a % of total turnout in 2016:

Update of this map:

I THINK that map looks like a tentative positive development for Democrats, right?

Why would it? Democrats are more likely to vote by mail instead of in person.

Well, yes, of course. But the point is that I tentatively think vote-by-mail has increased since 2016 more in Democratic areas of the state? I can't tell for sure without cities on the map to firmly identify the counties.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Just got my ballot emailed to me while riding the train home and nearly sh-t myself

what state are you in that does email balloting?

Yeah, I don’t see how that can be a thing.

Indiana, using the Federal Absentee Ballot application. This is the first year they are doing it. In 2018 and 2019 I used traditional vote-by-mail but it was always very stressful since ballots were sent in October, so they took 10 days to arrive in Sweden and then 12 days to mail back. I do have to sign a separate form stating that I understand that I am waiving my right to a secret ballot since a PDF scan is not exactly secret.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/amandawgolden/status/1307296601271078918

[neostassenite31]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/minnesota-sees-absolute-shattering-record-absentee-ballot-requests/story?id=73101334

Early voting in Minnesota:

As of Friday, 1,070,486 voters have requested absentee ballots. By comparison, for the same period in 2018, approximately 58,000 were requested. 3,038 early in-person ballots were cast on Friday, which Simon's office believes may be a record. In 2016, there were 857 ballots accepted on the first day of early in-person voting.

[It’s so Joever]

Well, at least we can bury any “VA is only Lean D” tropes.

[neostassenite31]

Official statistics for absentee voting in MN, with county by county data

https://www.sos.state.mn.us/election-administration-campaigns/data-maps/absentee-data/

Applications submitted (9/18/20): 1,070,487
Accepted ballots: Will be available starting 9/25/20

Number of requests have already surpassed NC.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1307326948646039553

[Illiniwek]

Looks like my absentee ballot is coming in the mail today!

[The Mikado]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/minnesota-sees-absolute-shattering-record-absentee-ballot-requests/story?id=73101334

Early voting in Minnesota:

As of Friday, 1,070,486 voters have requested absentee ballots. By comparison, for the same period in 2018, approximately 58,000 were requested. 3,038 early in-person ballots were cast on Friday, which Simon's office believes may be a record. In 2016, there were 857 ballots accepted on the first day of early in-person voting.

So about 0.1% of the total vote that will be cast in MN has already been cast, a month and a half out. That's pretty impressive.

(Estimating that MN will have about 3 million votes cast is pretty safe: MN already has very high voter turnout so there's not that much room for it to grow)

[Senator-elect Spark]

Thank you for this. Hope the deficit can be cut enough.

[indietraveler]

Sober reminder that while it's great to see long lines it doesn't necessarily mean anything. It's likely these are the most die hards that vote all the time regardless of circumstance.

What would really be interesting to see, and perhaps a better indication, is how many of these are first-time voters or non-2016 voters.

Obviously the best thing about this is that these votes are now banked. What early voters need to do is make sure they're getting their friends and families to vote and those to participate who normally don't.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Sober reminder that while it's great to see long lines it doesn't necessarily mean anything. It's likely these are the most die hards that vote all the time regardless of circumstance.

Guess we oughta shut this discussion down then if it means nothing. Ya'll are just wasting time in discussing this

[indietraveler]

Sober reminder that while it's great to see long lines it doesn't necessarily mean anything. It's likely these are the most die hards that vote all the time regardless of circumstance.

Guess we oughta shut this discussion down then if it means nothing. Ya'll are just wasting time in discussing this

Not sure if you're being sarcastic or not? But it seems like you know what I said was correct since you just quoted the first portion of my post. If you're being serious, why are you Fox Newsing me here?

[Minnesota Mike]

Sober reminder that while it's great to see long lines it doesn't necessarily mean anything. It's likely these are the most die hards that vote all the time regardless of circumstance.

What would really be interesting to see, and perhaps a better indication, is how many of these are first-time voters or non-2016 voters.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html

In North Carolina 26,112 voters (22.4%) did not cast a ballot in 2016.  A few may be voters who were too young to cast a vote in 2016 or people who voted in another state but it does seem we are getting quite a few people who sat out 2016 to the polls this time.

[Stockdale for Veep]

My ballot arrived today. Will be sending it out Monday.

myvote.wi.gov - though has not updated my status to indicate the ballot had even been sent out yet?

[Rep Jessica]

Here is north Carolina on the 19th of September 2016. North Carolina today had over 116,494.

[Adam Griffin]

Similar to Crumpets' map for NC, except this one is for GA (two color schemes):

VBM Requests as of 9/19, % of Total 2018 Vote:
Abrams Counties: 33.68% (726462/2156818)
Georgia, Overall: 29.89%
Kemp Counties: 25.32% (453819/1792128)

 

[Adam Griffin]

38 votes cast thus far in Georgia.

White 21
Black 13
Other 3

Male 21
Female 14

Voted in 2016: 21
Didn't Vote: 16


For ballot requests, here are the altered racial figures (that attempt to account for & redistribute the large "other" contingency) for those who voted in '16 and those who did not.

Race	2016 Voters	Non-16 Voters	Total VBM
White	62%	51%	59%
Black	32%	37%	33%
Lat/Asn	6%	12%	8%

[Brittain33]

38 votes cast thus far in Georgia.

White 21
Black 13
Other 3

Male 21
Female 14

Voted in 2016: 21
Didn't Vote: 16


For ballot requests, here are the altered racial figures (that attempt to account for & redistribute the large "other" contingency) for those who voted in '16 and those who did not.

Race	2016 Voters	Non-16 Voters	Total VBM
White	62%	51%	59%
Black	32%	37%	33%
Lat/Asn	6%	12%	8%

Just for fun, the MoE for a sample size of 38 out of a population of 4 million is 16%.

[Rep Jessica]

Early voting numbers for day 1(09/19) :
Virginia : 34684
https://twitter.com/Elections2020Us/status/1307660200527175680

[Tender Branson]

38 votes cast thus far in Georgia.

White 21
Black 13
Other 3

Male 21
Female 14

Voted in 2016: 21
Didn't Vote: 16


For ballot requests, here are the altered racial figures (that attempt to account for & redistribute the large "other" contingency) for those who voted in '16 and those who did not.

Race	2016 Voters	Non-16 Voters	Total VBM
White	62%	51%	59%
Black	32%	37%	33%
Lat/Asn	6%	12%	8%

This might be the main reason why ballots of minority voters got rejected much more than ballots from white voters so far in NC.

New voters.

Most of them probably young and minorities, who are politically uneducated and forgot to sign their envelopes.

[Non Swing Voter]

Early voting numbers for day 1(09/19) :
Virginia : 34684
https://twitter.com/Elections2020Us/status/1307660200527175680

What?  Something seems off.  They said only 1500 voted in Fairfax on day 1, by far the largest jurisdiction, with huge lines.  Either that's wrong or the 34,000 number is off.  Hard to believe both are correct.

[DINGO Joe]

Early voting numbers for day 1(09/19) :
Virginia : 34684
https://twitter.com/Elections2020Us/status/1307660200527175680

What?  Something seems off.  They said only 1500 voted in Fairfax on day 1, by far the largest jurisdiction, with huge lines.  Either that's wrong or the 34,000 number is off.  Hard to believe both are correct.

I haven't seen a county breakdown on the VA website and the 34,000 is possibly for two days and may not even include all counties.  As for Fairfax, they apparently only ran one room the first day and added a second room to expedite things the second.