Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

FYI I found a couple of good explanations of the CUS et al:

https://www.georgiaencyclopedia.org/articles/counties-cities-neighborhoods/county-unit-system

https://www.wabe.org/why-ga-has-second-highest-number-counties-us/

[DINGO Joe]

Thanks for the info.  I knew that the one person one vote was heavily abused back in the day and obviously that's how they did it.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Here's the current Senate primary turnout by county (map + spreadsheet):

2020 Senate Primary Turnout by County

Telfair, Screven, Decatur, Fayette, and Jenkins are the only ones that really stick out like sore thumbs compared to recent results. This otherwise seems like a mix of the best of Abrams' 2018 map and Obama's 2012 map (black belt)

[Rookie Yinzer]

I feel like those Fayette numbers should be a bigger deal to the GOP than it is. I don't think Biden/Ossoff will win it outright but getting to 46-47 percent looks like a thing, no?

[Bidenworth2020]

Curious what the Georgia folks think--

Does Ossoff underperform Biden appreciably in any counties or neighborhoods? Conversely, does Biden underperform Ossoff anywhere in the state?

[Adam Griffin]

DEM PPP: 1,024,800 (52.56%)
GOP PPP: 925,127 (47.44%)
TOTAL: 1,949,927

DEM SEN: 1,117,962 (53.68%)
GOP SEN: 964,792 (46.32%)
TOTAL: 2,082,754

PPP/SEN gap grew by another 2k since yesterday: now at 132,827.

Democrats now lead by over 5 points in the PPP total and over 7 points in the SEN total.


The SD 17 primary composition is now just 0.2 points to the left of the statewide SEN primary composition and just a tad over 2 points to the left of PPP primary (no new votes from SD 17). It may very well end up to the right of both once all votes are counted, which would make more sense based on recent voting behavior in the district.

[Adam Griffin]

Curious what the Georgia folks think--

Does Ossoff underperform Biden appreciably in any counties or neighborhoods? Conversely, does Biden underperform Ossoff anywhere in the state?

Historically, the biggest discrepancies for the down-ballot doing meaningfully better than the presidential candidate could be found in very rural areas (i.e. places where local Democrats could still win even when federal Democrats were getting walloped; where time had stood still) and presidential candidates doing better than the down-ballot in areas that mostly overlap with Ossoff's congressional bid (East Cobb, Milton, northern Dekalb, western Gwinnett, etc); rich, suburban, educated, white Atlanta.

There were dozens upon dozens of precincts in the current GA-6 and along its periphery in 2008 and 2012 where Obama won outright majorities - some of them in excess of 55% - where the average downballot Democrat received 40% or less. Ticket-splitting in the rich white northern ATL suburbs was quite common prior to 2016 (and even then, the differences between Clinton/Barksdale and Trump/Isakson in many of these places were extraordinary; Isakson outran Trump by 9 statewide, but by 15-25 in many of these same precincts). Given Ossoff's experience earning these people's votes, I'm not confident there'll be as big of an underperformance as in past years. Additionally, there is most certainly less ticket-splitting as more of these leaning Republicans and independents have found their way firmly into the Democratic Party over the past few years. He might actually even match or outperform Biden here given these factors, which would be a first.

Biden will obviously do better than Ossoff in precincts and places where there is unusually high drop-off. This will be in places where larger than average Latino/Asian populations exist. Expect Biden to dramatically outrun Ossoff in select Gwinnett, Hall and Whitfield precincts in particular, with maybe some (smaller) drop-off in more Asian areas in Forsyth and the like. In many majority-Latino precincts in 2016, there was anywhere from 15-25% raw vote difference between Clinton and Barksdale (with no significant raw vote increase for Isakson); these Latino voters basically showed up, voted for Clinton, and skipped the rest of the ballot.

Given both are white and both are male (a first for the two top Democrats in statewide GA elections since 2006*), major differences in vote share outside of the aforementioned areas are unlikely unless unique local factors are applicable in select areas. I don't really expect Ossoff to outperform Biden much of anywhere except possibly where I mentioned in the second paragraph.

* actually, maybe not, depending on Warnock's ballot placement - though that is a special election

[skbl17]

Per the AJC, absentee ballot applications will not be mailed for the November general election. Instead, an "online portal" will be set up to allow voters to order an absentee ballot.

And Raffensperger said he won’t send absentee ballot request forms to 6.9 million Georgia voters again, as he did in the primary. Instead, he’ll create a website where voters can request absentee ballots themselves.

[Adam Griffin]

Per the AJC, absentee ballot applications will not be mailed for the November general election. Instead, an "online portal" will be set up to allow voters to order an absentee ballot.

And Raffensperger said he won’t send absentee ballot request forms to 6.9 million Georgia voters again, as he did in the primary. Instead, he’ll create a website where voters can request absentee ballots themselves.

Honestly, this is even better: no stupid postage or envelope required for application return.

I really don't get why the GOP (both Kemp and now Raffensperger) are so hell-bent on making voting easy? First the MVP system, then AVR, and now all of this. How many states (even D-controlled ones) mailed ballot applications to voters for even the primary?

[skbl17]

Per the AJC, absentee ballot applications will not be mailed for the November general election. Instead, an "online portal" will be set up to allow voters to order an absentee ballot.

And Raffensperger said he won’t send absentee ballot request forms to 6.9 million Georgia voters again, as he did in the primary. Instead, he’ll create a website where voters can request absentee ballots themselves.

Honestly, this is even better: no stupid postage or envelope required for application return.

I really don't get why the GOP (both Kemp and now Raffensperger) are so hell-bent on making voting easy? First the MVP system, then AVR, and now all of this. How many states (even D-controlled ones) mailed ballot applications to voters for even the primary?

Yeah, this is a good move.

I just hope there is a plan in place for those who don't have internet service or live in areas without good internet access. I remember there was a post you made in one of these megathreads talking about Georgia's internet deserts - one such place was majority-black Hancock County in rural Georgia.

Maybe county election boards should be given an option to mail absentee ballot applications if they feel that the online system would be inadequate given the socioeconomic conditions of the county?

[Oryxslayer]

Per the AJC, absentee ballot applications will not be mailed for the November general election. Instead, an "online portal" will be set up to allow voters to order an absentee ballot.

And Raffensperger said he won’t send absentee ballot request forms to 6.9 million Georgia voters again, as he did in the primary. Instead, he’ll create a website where voters can request absentee ballots themselves.

Honestly, this is even better: no stupid postage or envelope required for application return.

I really don't get why the GOP (both Kemp and now Raffensperger) are so hell-bent on making voting easy? First the MVP system, then AVR, and now all of this. How many states (even D-controlled ones) mailed ballot applications to voters for even the primary?

The GA Democratic party is mostly minorities, who are more likely to use traditional voter methods rather than vote by mail. So this gives then an excuse to cut polling locations in minority neighborhoods while saying that they offered another option.

[skbl17]

Meanwhile, in the land of metrics of dubious usefulness, here's an update on the two-party primary vote by state house race (as of 2pm):

The margin is now 91-89 GOP, down from 92-88. Since last check, Dems have taken a 0.8% lead in HD-44 in Cobb County. As a reminder, the state House composition at the time of the last election was 105-75 GOP.

Also, the Dems' lead in the two-party margin has increased by 0.64%:

- D: 895,707 (51.14%)
- R: 855,637 (48.86%)


Also, for fun I decided to look at the State Senate primary numbers as well.

The margin there is 30-26 GOP. As a reminder, after the last election the seat composition was 35-21 GOP.

The current two-party vote breakdown is:

- D: 896,474 (50.95%)
- R: 863,020 (49.05%)

The Dems are in no danger in any of their seats. One of the Dems' two flips from 2018, SD-48 in Gwinnett County, was thought to be potentially competitive since it's an open seat this time around, but the primary margin suggests the Dems will have no issue holding it in November:

SD-48

20,296 D (65.0%) - 10,933 R (35.0%)

D+30.0%

Meanwhile, the metro seats held by the GOP are more precarious than I thought. I knew the Republicans were in danger in SD-9, SD-17, and SD-56, but maybe the Dems should also look at SD-37 and SD-45, maybe even SD-32(?):

Metro seats held by the GOP:

SD-32	22,515 D (48.3%) - 24,112 R (51.7%)	R+3.4%
SD-37	20,779 D (50.3%) - 20,521 R (49.7%)	D+0.6%
SD-45	19,450 D (50.8%) - 18,827 R (49.2%)	D+1.6%
SD-56	17,998 D (58.0%) - 13,032 R (42.0%)	D+16.0%
SD-9	25,722 D (58.8%) - 18,012 R (41.2%)	D+17.6%
SD-17	23,533 D (53.8%) - 20,237 R (46.2%)	D+7.6%

Unlike the House, where the door is propped open a bit to give Dems a slim chance of winning a majority, even if I give them every seat listed here, they would only get to 27 seats. At that point, they'd need to win two more seats (since the Lt. Gov. is Republican), which I don't see - the next seat on the list is SD-23 (52.5% GOP), but that's a rural district that's moving away from Dems.

The state Senate is Safe R, and nothing about these numbers makes me think otherwise, but the gap may turn out to be smaller than I expected come January. We'll see.

[Adam Griffin]

DEM PPP: 1,059,654 (53.13%)
GOP PPP: 934,948 (46.87%)
TOTAL: 1,994,602

DEM SEN: 1,156,568 (54.16%)
GOP SEN: 978,761 (45.84%)
TOTAL: 2,135,329

PPP/SEN gap is still growing: grew by another 8k since 6/16: now at 140,727.

Democrats now lead by over 6 points in the PPP total and over 8 points in the SEN total.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It appears very likely that Biden will end up getting more raw votes than Trump when all is said and done, despite having opponents on the ballot. So much for no enthusiasm

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1274093567879897088?s=20

[Adam Griffin]

EDIT: SCROLL DOWN A COUPLE OF POSTS FOR CURRENT COMBINED PPP-ONLY + PPP/SEN RESULTS

DEM PPP: 1,066,056 (53.21%)
GOP PPP: 937,516 (46.79%)
TOTAL: 2,003,572

DEM SEN: 1,164,224 (54.25%)
GOP SEN: 981,850 (45.75%)
TOTAL: 2,146,074

PPP/SEN gap is still growing: grew by another 1.5k since 6/19: now at 142,502. I guess SoS doesn't care about those PPP-only ballots...

[Adam Griffin]

One critique about Miles' tweet: just to tell you how far things have progressed demographically, "Milton" isn't even the whitest segment of Fulton anymore. That distinction goes to the Sandy Springs area and places due south of it (including the northern segment of ATL proper). Milton is still the "least black" meaningfully large area of Fulton, though - but even there, it's a negligible difference. Milton simply has more Asian and Latino residents (whether measured by population or by CVAP), making it more non-white by the broader (arguably non-Southron) definition.

The 400 corridor in Milton has attracted a lot of lower-income, multi-family housing in a way that North (Non-Milton) Fulton has not due to its richer roots, which makes the former prime real estate for lower-income non-white (mostly non-black) migration. There have also been a lot of wealthy Asians settling in the Johns Creek area.

[DINGO Joe]

DEM PPP: 1,066,056 (53.21%)
GOP PPP: 937,516 (46.79%)
TOTAL: 2,003,572

DEM SEN: 1,164,224 (54.25%)
GOP SEN: 981,850 (45.75%)
TOTAL: 2,146,074

PPP/SEN gap is still growing: grew by another 1.5k since 6/19: now at 142,502. I guess SoS doesn't care about those PPP-only ballots...

Turns out there's a separate page for March ballots

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/102879/web.254232/#/summary

Of major counties, DeKalb and Hall haven't reported.  Looks like the D Presidential vote will exceed the D Senate vote by at least 75,000.

[Adam Griffin]

Turns out there's a separate page for March ballots
https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/102879/web.254232/#/summary

Thanks!

Updating these numbers now with the counted PPP-only ballots:

DEM PPP: 1,234,946 (54.83%)
GOP PPP: 1,017,303 (45.17%)
TOTAL: 2,252,249

DEM SEN: 1,164,224 (54.25%)
GOP SEN: 981,850 (45.75%)
TOTAL: 2,146,074

Democrats are gonna hit a double-digit lead in the PPP two-way...


Also, in case anybody was curious about the presidential primary totals by candidate:

PPP/SEN Ballots:
Biden: 84.88%
Sanders: 9.34%

PPP-Only Ballots:
Biden: 74.81%
Sanders: 17.73%

Total Ballots:
Biden: 83.50%
Sanders: 10.48%

[Adam Griffin]

DEM PPP: 1,248,747 (55.05%)
GOP PPP: 1,019,502 (44.95%)
TOTAL: 2,268,249

DEM SEN: 1,179,198 (54.50%)
GOP SEN: 984,274 (45.50%)
TOTAL: 2,163,472

18k new votes since yesterday in the PPP contest (none of which appear to be PPP-only); approximately 16k were Democratic. Democrats officially cross the 10-point mark in PPP lead.

[DINGO Joe]

DEM PPP: 1,248,747 (55.05%)
GOP PPP: 1,019,502 (44.95%)
TOTAL: 2,268,249

DEM SEN: 1,179,198 (54.50%)
GOP SEN: 984,274 (45.50%)
TOTAL: 2,163,472

18k new votes since yesterday in the PPP contest (none of which appear to be PPP-only); approximately 16k were Democratic. Democrats officially cross the 10-point mark in PPP lead.

That was mainly the final update from Fulton.  Hall has submitted it's final update including PPP only so when the state website updates it'll tic a little R, but DeKalb still has to submit it's final and PPP only.

[Dr. Arch]

DEM PPP: 1,248,747 (55.05%)
GOP PPP: 1,019,502 (44.95%)
TOTAL: 2,268,249

DEM SEN: 1,179,198 (54.50%)
GOP SEN: 984,274 (45.50%)
TOTAL: 2,163,472

18k new votes since yesterday in the PPP contest (none of which appear to be PPP-only); approximately 16k were Democratic. Democrats officially cross the 10-point mark in PPP lead.

Have these margins ever been a thing in GA in the current political paradigm (mainly post-2008)?

[DINGO Joe]

DEM PPP: 1,248,747 (55.05%)
GOP PPP: 1,019,502 (44.95%)
TOTAL: 2,268,249

DEM SEN: 1,179,198 (54.50%)
GOP SEN: 984,274 (45.50%)
TOTAL: 2,163,472

18k new votes since yesterday in the PPP contest (none of which appear to be PPP-only); approximately 16k were Democratic. Democrats officially cross the 10-point mark in PPP lead.

Have these margins ever been a thing in GA in the current political paradigm (mainly post-2008)?

Well, D turnout exceeded R turnout in 2008 (by  about 5pts), though there was a rural white component to the D vote in 2008 that no longer exists.  I'm sure some fantastic maps can be made showing the shift in vote for each party between those two primaries. 

[Adam Griffin]

DEM PPP: 1,264,201 (54.54%)
GOP PPP: 1,053,532 (45.46%)
TOTAL: 2,317,733

DEM SEN: 1,191,207 (53.88%)
GOP SEN: 1,019,830 (46.12%)
TOTAL: 2,211,037

Nearly 50k new votes across both contests (49484 in PPP, 47565 in SEN). This drop was heavily-GOP (69% R in PPP, 75% R in SEN): enough to erase the double-digit DEM lead in PPP and reduce both contests' margins by roughly 1 percentage point.

[DINGO Joe]

DEM PPP: 1,264,201 (54.54%)
GOP PPP: 1,053,532 (45.46%)
TOTAL: 2,317,733

DEM SEN: 1,191,207 (53.88%)
GOP SEN: 1,019,830 (46.12%)
TOTAL: 2,211,037

Nearly 50k new votes across both contests (49484 in PPP, 47565 in SEN). This drop was heavily-GOP (69% R in PPP, 75% R in SEN): enough to erase the double-digit DEM lead in PPP and reduce both contests' margins by roughly 1 percentage point.

They botched the update of Hall county, it's been undone.  Really just waiting for DeKalb to finalize and they don't seem to be in any hurry.