Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Some more Gwinnett news: the incumbent Republican Clerk of Superior Court, Richard Alexander, has apparently opted not to run for reelection.

With the longtime DA (Danny Porter) considering a party switch to run for reelection as a Democrat, and county commission chair Charlotte Nash not running for reelection, the Gwinnett GOP dumpster fire continues to grow. I would not be shocked if the Dems swept every partisan elected county position - district or countywide - up next year.

https://twitter.com/elium2/status/1150620900116635648

I’d be shocked if they didn’t sweep every spot. They did in 2018 and none of the countrywide races were even close.

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We can win in 2020. We really have to be vigilant about making sure people know their rights at the polls and that they are at the correct precinct. I know where we are, we are fighting for an extra Saturday, Sunday voting, and extended hours the last week of Early Voting. Turnout is going to be insane.

Personally I think voting should be e-day only.

Of course you do lol, this is a great point against that view.

I would be for Election Day only if it were a national holiday. With exceptions for extreme circumstances like work-related travel, or something.

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Can one of the Georgia people tell me why we never hear Bob Trammell’s name floated for higher office? I believe he is the only Democrat to represent a seat in the legislature that Brian Kemp won. He fits the profile for a solid candidate for something like Attorney General: young former prosecutor with a track record of winning tough races

He honestly sounds like he would have been a better candidate against Perdue than the lackluster field we have.

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Adam, Noob, RFK, GAModerate, anyone?^^

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Can one of the Georgia people tell me why we never hear Bob Trammell’s name floated for higher office? I believe he is the only Democrat to represent a seat in the legislature that Brian Kemp won. He fits the profile for a solid candidate for something like Attorney General: young former prosecutor with a track record of winning tough races

He honestly sounds like he would have been a better candidate against Perdue than the lackluster field we have.

Can't answer that but I can see him running for AG in 2022. I don't think it's a coincidence that he endorsed Kamala Harris for POTUS last year.

Thanks! It’ll be interesting to see if he can survive this year since I imagine Trump will still carry his seat even if he loses Georgia (it was one of the places where Kemp did better than Trump).

Either way, he’ll probably get forced to run statewide for AG in 2022 when Republicans make his seat unwinnable.

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I do wonder if the Governors race in 2022 will be Lean D.

Kemp will win reelection very handily by double digits.

have you seen his recent #s

By 2022: people will forget about his poor handling of this crisis.

Even if that is true, there's nothing that guarantees something like a very unpopular budget or something couldn't drag his popularity down big time.

Speaking of which, Brian Kemp warns of "Brutal" Budget Cuts

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611,084 (49.2%) GOP
609,252 (49.1%) DEM

What's really eye popping are the percent of people who did NOT vote in 2016.

And this data, every birth year after 1960 has a majority/pluarlity of voters born that year choosing Dem ballots:

I imagine Democrats haven't outvoted Republicans in the primary in Georgia since 2008 right?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Georgia is going blue this November.

I could definitely see it being the same as Wisconsin was to Trump. A state that's trending further to tossup status that was deemed fool's gold.

Btw, these Gwinnett County numbers are crazy-

Dem Primary: 52,776 (58.6%)
GOP Primary: 34,804 (38.7%)

If I had to guess the Gwinnett County margin today, I would have guessed Biden +20, even before seeing this stat

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Georgia is going blue this November.

I could definitely see it being the same as Wisconsin was to Trump. A state that's trending further to tossup status that was deemed fool's gold.

Btw, these Gwinnett County numbers are crazy-

Dem Primary: 52,776 (58.6%)
GOP Primary: 34,804 (38.7%)

If I had to guess the Gwinnett County margin today, I would have guessed Biden +20, even before seeing this stat

Is there a county anywhere in the country that is shifting R > D faster than Gwinnett? I can't think of any.

Williamson County, TX; Collin County, TX; and Hays County, TX come to mind. They've all swung around 25 points from 2012 to 2018.

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Other counties in the Metro:

Fulton 78-20
DeKalb 86-12
Cobb 54-43
Clayton 86-12
Douglas 68-30
Newton 57-42
Rockdale 75-24
Fayette 50-48 (!!)

I'm surprised Cobb isn't a bigger margin considering the other counties. I also wasn't expecting Fayette to be close to flipping until 2024 or 2028, but who knows, maybe the automatic voter registration there is speeding things up

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Other counties in the Metro:

Fulton 78-20
DeKalb 86-12
Cobb 54-43
Clayton 86-12
Douglas 68-30
Henry 63-35
Newton 57-42
Rockdale 75-24
Fayette 50-48 (!!)

What about Forsyth County?

67-31

My county.  I'll be bold and predict Trump wins it by less than 2:1 in November.   It was almost 3:1 in 2016 (71.7-24.1).

That would almost definitely indicate a Biden win statewide

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Democrats have good leads in districts 6 and 7

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Democrats have good leads in districts 6 and 7

This does make sense with the county numbers we're seeing, but where are you finding the data for CDs specifically?

http://georgiavotes.com/ doesn't have any partisan breakdown for CDs unfortunately.

I was using a lazy method of extrapolating from the 2018 gubernatorial margins where Democrats had expanded the Gwinnett margin another 6 points and closed the gap in Forsyth another 7.

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Democrats outvoted Republicans in GA-07 by over 15000 votes, or 59-41

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Raffensperger should be thrown promptly in jail by a Democratic appointed US Attorney if Biden wins. This is criminal negligence.

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Democrats outvoted Republicans in GA-07 by over 15000 votes, or 59-41

Literally don't believe any results you're currently seeing on elections websites (especially SoS: not sure WTF is wrong there).

See my post from Monday: there were over 60,000 GOP ballots mailed in GA-7 during early voting alone (and 63,000 DEM ballots mailed), so unless only a little over half of GOP mailed ballots were returned and literally no Republicans voted on Election Day in the district, those numbers are completely wack.

It would not surprise me if Democrats gained momentum from election day voting in a district like GA-7, though: Latinos and Asians in particular tend to vote more so on the day of an election than early (and certainly more so than via mail). This is why initial returns in many places were more favorable to Sanders before mail ballots started getting counted (also why ED vote in my home county of Whitfield - which has the highest Latino population % of any GA county - more often than not is a bit more favorable than EV; "early voting is for whites & blacks; election day voting is for Latinos and Asians").

It has to be mostly Election Day votes, right? But this number is from both NYTimes and DDHQ, both reputable. GA SOS is way behind everyone else

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In Gwinnett County as a whole, Democrats are currently outvoting Republicans 65-35.

Cobb County is smaller but noticeable 59-41

Republicans ahead 52-48 in Fayette County and 68-32 in Forsyth County

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Something I haven't seen mentioned thus far: the Democratic undervote between presidential and senatorial contests. Despite the presidential contest being at the top of the ballot, roughly 7% of Georgia Democrats skipped the presidential contest but cast votes in the Senate contest. This is...substantial. If it were a general election, I'd be screaming voter fraud. Amico sued in 2018 over roughly half this discrepancy - which was an unprecedented discrepancy then.

So here is potentially a big part of this discrepancy I discovered while going over the midnight happenings in my own county just now. Apparently the mail ballots that were cast for the presidential primary prior to the cancellation/move/merger of the pres & state primaries have not been counted (at least in Whitfield!) yet; they'll be counted today. If that is a common occurrence throughout the state, then it could explain why the presidential primary raw turnout is 7% lower than the Senate turnout; when people who voted by mail in Feb/Mar cast their ballots, it was just for President. If those ballots haven't been counted/reconciled, then of course the presidential totals would be lower. However, I don't know if this is something happening on a grand scale throughout the state or just something decided in my own county.

Why didn’t they just void all the March ballots and just start it clean?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Something I haven't seen mentioned thus far: the Democratic undervote between presidential and senatorial contests. Despite the presidential contest being at the top of the ballot, roughly 7% of Georgia Democrats skipped the presidential contest but cast votes in the Senate contest. This is...substantial. If it were a general election, I'd be screaming voter fraud. Amico sued in 2018 over roughly half this discrepancy - which was an unprecedented discrepancy then.

So here is potentially a big part of this discrepancy I discovered while going over the midnight happenings in my own county just now. Apparently the mail ballots that were cast for the presidential primary prior to the cancellation/move/merger of the pres & state primaries have not been counted (at least in Whitfield!) yet; they'll be counted today. If that is a common occurrence throughout the state, then it could explain why the presidential primary raw turnout is 7% lower than the Senate turnout; when people who voted by mail in Feb/Mar cast their ballots, it was just for President. If those ballots haven't been counted/reconciled, then of course the presidential totals would be lower. However, I don't know if this is something happening on a grand scale throughout the state or just something decided in my own county.

Why didn’t they just void all the March ballots and just start it clean?

I voted in the Presidential primary on the first day of early voting in March, before postponement.  Why should my legitimate early vote be canceled?

Because wouldn’t some people accidentally vote for President twice?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Ossoff is at 49.83 now....

Is that before DeKalb is added?

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Since last update:

8576 new PPP ballots:
+4788 D
+3788 R

8965 new SEN ballots:
+5026 D
+3939 R

DEM PPP: 861,493 (50.66%)
GOP PPP: 838,884 (49.34%)
TOTAL: 1,700,377

DEM SEN: 940,847 (51.87%)
GOP SEN: 873,167 (48.13%)
TOTAL: 1,814,014

I wonder if that Senate gap can grow to 100k

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Democrats ahead by just over 15% in GA-06 now. GA-07 has fallen to 58-42 D

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Bourdeaux is still running pretty strong, holding steady at winning 67% of the mail-in absentees. She's gone from 46.0% -> 47.0% in overall margin from the last 3000 votes added.

Up to 48.7% after Forsyth absentees, seems like I was correct to say the AP called this race prematurely.

Oh wow. If the AP called this many races prematurely here in Georgia primaries alone...

This is going to be a nightmare in November. A lot of premature calls are going to go for Republicans before Dem-heavy Counties finish

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Haven’t seen it posted here, but Dems took the lead in Fayette County by around 1000 votes

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I see that the front runner in the GA-14 R primary is an open QAnon supporter.  It's a 75% Trump district so the winner of the runoff will go to Congress.

here's the WaPo article btw

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/georgia-republican-and-qanon-believer-favored-to-win-us-house-seat/2020/06/11/f52bc004-ac13-11ea-a9d9-a81c1a491c52_story.html

This is my district. Don't make me get started on this. Her dumb Cobb County ass (who doesn't even live in the district; maybe she moved after announcing her campaign, I don't know) is going to lead to the NW Georgia district getting sliced into pieces in 2021 if nominated in the runoff. While there's no way a Democratic member of the US House wins an election with NW Georgia in it, I do at least appreciate all of the effort that NW GA GOP officials put into ensuring that the new 14th district (at the time) was a geographically compact, mostly (ugh Paulding) culturally-relevant district drawn here in 2011. I could be wrong, but I imagine if this cretin wins, the GAGOP at-large will split this area three ways to Sunday in redistricting to flush that turd down the electoral drain (as multi-millonaire Frank Reynolds once said).

Why is there any reason to believe that they are interested in primarying our conspiracy theorists? Republicans haven’t cared about their politicians openly peddling conspiracies in the Trump era at all. In fact, they are often rewarded by the voters for doing so (Trump)