Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Sarah Riggs Amico (Lt. Gov. candidate in 2018) is giving serious consideration to running for the Senate seat next year, citing the situation in Georgia and other states regarding recent abortion legislation.

I think she's definitely going to get in.

Someone associated w/ Teresa Tomlinson's campaign has been tweeting about her quite a bit lately citing how Amico donated to Romney in 2012 and donated to pro-life orgs as recently as 2016.

[Rookie Yinzer]

What do you think about Senate District 17? Brian Strickland won 54-46 in 2018. I guess how he'll do is dependent on if Abrams 2018 is the new Democratic floor in a high turnout general election. Not sure how Abrams did in this district.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Fair Fight Action raised $3.9 million since the start of the year:

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/stacey-abrams-voting-rights-group-raises-million-six-months/JupQ020s8Uev9oz2eFOCuI/

https://twitter.com/gwlauren/status/1148417615855017985

[Rookie Yinzer]

Senate Minority Leader Steve Henson, the only white male Democrat in the chamber, said Wednesday that he would not seek re-election to his suburban Atlanta seat in 2020.

Henson survived a primary scare in 2018, when he finished 111 votes ahead of an unknown Democratic challenger, Sabrina McKenzie.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/steve-henson-leader-senate-democrats-won-seek-election-2020/1gbMla3IiH3Flp1dsyQrBL/

[Rookie Yinzer]

Can Abrams still ask for a recount or sue Gov. Kemp, months after the election?

No and she won't, she'll just continue to raise money from gullible idiots by pretending that the race was stolen from her

Tell that to the federal judges who have permitted discovery to commence in their case against the GA Secretary of State's office for the malfeasance during the 2018 elections.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Kemp's JA is apparently 61/37 according to SurveyMonkey outpacing Trump's 48/51 JA. I don't know what to make of it, but it appears Stacey Abrams election trutherism has fallen on deaf ears in GA.

Simple. Those numbers are inaccurate. Anything else?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Many of you probably already know this story but it's been re-examined in a post-2018 election lens:

https://twitter.com/jonward11/status/1158696979867852801

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1159131047344443392

[Rookie Yinzer]

Geez this state is so polarized. Am I right when I see only 4 districts that were decided by single digits? That's why I laugh when I see people hand wringing about Tomlinson being full throated on impeachment and blowing up the filibuster.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Given State Senate seems have been Kemp 33-Abrams 23, it seems some state Senate districts are represented by a different party from the one they voted for Governor. Also can someone get me info on the current composition of the Georgia State Senate, I have seen both 37 R-19 D and 35 R-21 D.

It's 35R-21D Senate Districts 40 and 48 flipped last November.

[Rookie Yinzer]

* Butch Miller is a sitting state senator. His seat is Safe R, but quirky things can happen with low-turnout state special elections (like that time in 2015 when a Republican won a D+30-ish majority-minority state Senate seat because of low turnout).

That was us! Sorry y'all.

Anyway- I hope McBath is the consensus candidate for Isakson's seat.

[Rookie Yinzer]

So I’m in the district with the special house election and I voted last week. Turns out the lady I voted for isn’t even a dem but rather a never-Trumper running as a dem. Don’t know how to feel about it but I guess I need to learn to do my research better and it’s not like she’s gonna win anyway

HD-71?

[Rookie Yinzer]

So I’m in the district with the special house election and I voted last week. Turns out the lady I voted for isn’t even a dem but rather a never-Trumper running as a dem. Don’t know how to feel about it but I guess I need to learn to do my research better and it’s not like she’s gonna win anyway

HD-71?

Yep

Oh wow. I know people who canvassed for her. They definitely didn't know that about her. LOL.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Just a couple of updates from a very reliable source:

• 15+ "credible" candidates have reached out to the state party in interest over Isakson's seat
• Sally Yates is not interested in elected office at all

I just want to know if McBath is one of them? She's the only one whose potential candidacy excites me.

Yeah... Sally Yates is never going to happen. #ResistanceTwitter needs to let it go. LOL.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Whew! Stacey Abrams & Fair Fight Action just released the most comprehensive case for Georgia being a swing state I have ever seen:

-Georgia is experiencing a population boom, and it is benefiting progressive candidates. For voters who have lived in GA less than 10 years- they voted for Abrams 65-35
-Stacey Abrams tripled Asian and Latinx turnout, increased black turnout by 40%, and youth turnout by 139%
-Stacey Abrams got unprecedented levels of support from college-educated white women.
-As of June 2019, there have been 200,000 new registered voters since the last election, these voters lean Democratic.
-By November 2020, there will be 1.7 million irregular and new voters on the rolls who did not vote in 2018 and are inclined to support Democratic candidates.
-There have been at least 80,000 Abrams supporters identified as victims of voter suppression. She lost* by 54,000.
-Georgia is changing fast, and non-white voters will make up 42% of the voters in 2020 (up from 40% in 2018)

So much more detailed than my cliff notes. Check it out:

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1o3D06XqVado9icWfhAw5ylL6KaiBuWSm

[Rookie Yinzer]

We can win in 2020. We really have to be vigilant about making sure people know their rights at the polls and that they are at the correct precinct. I know where we are, we are fighting for an extra Saturday, Sunday voting, and extended hours the last week of Early Voting. Turnout is going to be insane.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The questions with regards to the surge of new registrants are of course:

1) What percentage will actually vote? (most of these people are being registered automatically)
2) What percentage of the white vote is Democratic?

Let's assume non-whites are at the standard 85% Democratic and whites (due to age) are at 30% Democratic: that produces a 56-44 Democratic advantage, or a net margin of 42,000 votes for Democrats.

However, assuming that half actually vote (for the time being, I think that's pretty generous actually), you're looking at a 21,000 vote margin gain, which illustrates just why it takes an insane number of new registrants to typically change elections even by a small amount.

And given we're at 7.4 million out of 10.5 million people and 24% (2.5 million) are under 18, we're getting close to being maxed out on new registrants.

There were 1 million new voters on the roll between 2016 and 2018. Even with that, turnout in relation to those numbers went down in 2018. The best candidate in the world couldn't top presidential turnout in a midterm. We need to see how 2020 shakes out with those registrants plus the ones this year and next year when presidential turnout will be closer to 70 percent rather than the 60 percent that turned out last year.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Forsyth County adding five polling stations in 2020:

https://www.gpbnews.org/post/forsyth-county-adds-polling-places-ahead-2020-election

[Rookie Yinzer]

The text of Kemp’s plan came out today. It’s behind a paywall but the gist of it is that it will cost $325m to cover 80k ppl but the expansion would cost ~$200m to cover 500k ppl.

Smh

[Rookie Yinzer]

What are the odds Barrow jumps into one of the Senate races now?

0.

He’s not going to win a primary in Stacey Abrams’s Democratic Party.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I'm glad they've started weighting by education, but these numbers seem a little too R-friendly to me.

Same.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I like the new machines with the printed ballot and scanner.  Very easy to use.

Agree. Voted here in Newton County today. In and out.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Can one of the Georgia people tell me why we never hear Bob Trammell’s name floated for higher office? I believe he is the only Democrat to represent a seat in the legislature that Brian Kemp won. He fits the profile for a solid candidate for something like Attorney General: young former prosecutor with a track record of winning tough races

He honestly sounds like he would have been a better candidate against Perdue than the lackluster field we have.

Can't answer that but I can see him running for AG in 2022. I don't think it's a coincidence that he endorsed Kamala Harris for POTUS last year.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/RElliotWSB/status/1243272041370980354?s=20

[Rookie Yinzer]

It's crazy how one funeral in the middle of nowhere can be such a hotspot while the ATL counties where the 2nd biggest employer is an airline at the world's biggest airport are doing okay.

Albany is majority black, far away from the Atlanta metropolis, and inadequate healthcare. All recipes for disaster in a state led by racist conservatives who refuse to expand Medicaid.