Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

Post-correction, PPP leads returns almost to a 10-point lead.

DEM PPP: 1,258,331 (54.97%)
GOP PPP: 1,030,892 (45.03%)
TOTAL: 2,289,223

DEM SEN: 1,181,972 (54.37%)
GOP SEN: 992,109 (45.63%)
TOTAL: 2,174,081

[DINGO Joe]

DeKalb has finalized their vote just a matter of when it'll post on the state website.  Biden will finish with about 40000 votes more than Trump statewide and the D vote will be about 255000 more than R.  Senate won't change much.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Post-correction, PPP leads returns almost to a 10-point lead.

DEM PPP: 1,258,331 (54.97%)
GOP PPP: 1,030,892 (45.03%)
TOTAL: 2,289,223

DEM SEN: 1,181,972 (54.37%)
GOP SEN: 992,109 (45.63%)
TOTAL: 2,174,081

I wonder what the map looks like for this.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Post-correction, PPP leads returns almost to a 10-point lead.

DEM PPP: 1,258,331 (54.97%)
GOP PPP: 1,030,892 (45.03%)
TOTAL: 2,289,223

DEM SEN: 1,181,972 (54.37%)
GOP SEN: 992,109 (45.63%)
TOTAL: 2,174,081

I wonder what the map looks like for this.

Yeah I’ve been waiting for Miles or Niles to map it out

[Adam Griffin]

Post-correction, PPP leads returns almost to a 10-point lead.

DEM PPP: 1,258,331 (54.97%)
GOP PPP: 1,030,892 (45.03%)
TOTAL: 2,289,223

DEM SEN: 1,181,972 (54.37%)
GOP SEN: 992,109 (45.63%)
TOTAL: 2,174,081

I wonder what the map looks like for this.

I mapped out the results as of June 16th, when the SEN margin was around 6 points (as of last update, it was 8.7 points). Based on recollection of margins then, I doubt many counties (if any) have flipped in absolute terms: maybe somewhere like Telfair or Meriwether, but that's more or less it. Margin thresholds could have changed in a variety of counties sans flipping, though - most of what we've seen since then (at least in the SEN primary) has come from the D ATL metro. Obviously I didn't map the PPP due to all of the mail ballots still being unaccounted for back then.

[Adam Griffin]

Assuming this is the remainder of Dekalb that dumped (nearly 95% of the 32k new PPP ballots were D). PPP lead easily clears double digits once again.

DEM PPP: 1,287,920 (55.48%)
GOP PPP: 1,033,308 (44.52%)
TOTAL: 2,321,228

DEM SEN: 1,186,661 (54.45%)
GOP SEN: 992,551 (45.55%)
TOTAL: 2,179,212

[skbl17]

For those of you asking for maps, @The_Viking95 on Twitter has delivered (for the presidential primary, at least). Not the absolute latest data, but I expect very little to change from where this map stands now.

The map doesn't look too far off a standard election map of Georgia, aside from being bluer of course. There are some ancestral Dem outliers, such as Wilkes, Screven, and Decatur counties, all of which will vote Republican in November, but the map doesn't look as crazy as 2018 did.

Well, aside from blue Fayette. Still don't think Dems win it in November, but with Biden polling better with seniors and the Dems doing an excellent job consolidating northeast and northern Fayette, maybe the time for blue Fayette may be sooner than I previously thought. Still likely not this year though.

https://twitter.com/The_Viking95/status/1276637473003708416

[Adam Griffin]

RIP Blue Telfair

My composition map was made for the SEN contest at roughly 53-47 D; his PPP map is around 53-47 as well (obviously made later), but the only absolute flip difference I see between the 2 is our fallen hero mentioned above.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Blue Fayette is nice. Now can I have blue Forsyth by the end of the decade?

[Continential]

Blue Fayette is nice. Now can I have blue Forsyth by the end of the decade?

I saw a thread by BRTD which showed Forsyth county as the worst county in this country a few months ago from 12 years ago. Wow, have things have changed from 2008.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88051.msg1809013#msg1809013

[GeorgiaModerate]

Blue Fayette is nice. Now can I have blue Forsyth by the end of the decade?

I saw a thread by BRTD which showed Forsyth county as the worst county in this country a few months ago from 12 years ago. Wow, have things have changed from 2008.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88051.msg1809013#msg1809013

I've lived in Forsyth for over 15 years.  It's changed an amazing amount in that time.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Yikes, at Houston County.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Blue Fayette is nice. Now can I have blue Forsyth by the end of the decade?

I saw a thread by BRTD which showed Forsyth county as the worst county in this country a few months ago from 12 years ago. Wow, have things have changed from 2008.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88051.msg1809013#msg1809013

I've lived in Forsyth for over 15 years.  It's changed an amazing amount in that time.

It was featured on The Oprah Show in 1987 for not having a single black person living in the county for 75 years.

https://youtu.be/WErjPmFulQ0

[Adam Griffin]

Yikes, at Houston County.

When I did my SEN map, it was 52-48 R then: it might have tightened even more. In fact, I'm going to check it out...

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Blue Fayette is nice. Now can I have blue Forsyth by the end of the decade?

I saw a thread by BRTD which showed Forsyth county as the worst county in this country a few months ago from 12 years ago. Wow, have things have changed from 2008.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88051.msg1809013#msg1809013

I've lived in Forsyth for over 15 years.  It's changed an amazing amount in that time.

What do you think the odds are that Democrats can break 30% here? The primary was “only” 67-33 GOP, and that sounds reasonable, especially since other historically heavily segregated white counties in the south have begun to not be as monolithically R, like Shelby County, AL and Williamson County, TN.

[Adam Griffin]

   

BREAKING NEWS: HOUSTON COUNTY HAS FLIPPED IN THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY

VOTE TYPE	DEM	GOP
PPP-ONLY	2410	1153
PPP/SEN	13088	14177
TOTAL	15498	15330
PCT	50.27%	49.73%

[Holmes]

Blue Fayette is nice. Now can I have blue Forsyth by the end of the decade?

I saw a thread by BRTD which showed Forsyth county as the worst county in this country a few months ago from 12 years ago. Wow, have things have changed from 2008.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88051.msg1809013#msg1809013

I've lived in Forsyth for over 15 years.  It's changed an amazing amount in that time.

It was featured on The Oprah Show in 1987 for not having a single black person living in the county for 75 years.

https://youtu.be/WErjPmFulQ0

Jesus.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

   

BREAKING NEWS: HOUSTON COUNTY HAS FLIPPED IN THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY

VOTE TYPE	DEM	GOP
PPP-ONLY	2410	1153
PPP/SEN	13088	14177
TOTAL	15498	15330
PCT	50.27%	49.73%

This is astounding. Houston County (my home county and ground zero for the Purdue’s) is usually a 58-60% Republican county. Not even Abrams was able to crack it against Kemp.

[Adam Griffin]

Redid the map using PPP results only (results are as of 8:00 am on 6/27). Compared to the SEN map from 11 days ago (before PPP-only ballots were posted/counted), here are the following changes:

D-to-R:
Telfair

R-to-D:
Houston
Early
Lowndes

County-by-County Results (as of 6/27 AM)

[Adam Griffin]

I saw some mention prior of this map broadly-speaking, but essentially: it's a Democratic-optimistic combination of the past, present and future.

Past being various Black Belt counties and auxiliary Black Belt counties (like Jenkins, Screven, Wilkes, Decatur) that haven't voted D since the early 2000s in prominent statewide races, the relative present (counties that either Obama and/or Clinton won) and future being counties that might be winnable sometime later this decade (Fayette and Houston, with distant contenders like Columbia and even Coweta - the latter of which was a mere 62% R in the primary; quite skeptical about Lowndes personally).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Blue Fayette is nice. Now can I have blue Forsyth by the end of the decade?

I saw a thread by BRTD which showed Forsyth county as the worst county in this country a few months ago from 12 years ago. Wow, have things have changed from 2008.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88051.msg1809013#msg1809013

I've lived in Forsyth for over 15 years.  It's changed an amazing amount in that time.

What do you think the odds are that Democrats can break 30% here? The primary was “only” 67-33 GOP, and that sounds reasonable, especially since other historically heavily segregated white counties in the south have begun to not be as monolithically R, like Shelby County, AL and Williamson County, TN.

I think they're quite good.  In fact I made a prediction in another thread that Trump would win by less than a 2:1 margin this year (he won 71-24 in 2016).

Regarding the demographic changes, this is what the Census Bureau currently has:

2019 estimates:

White 77.6%
Non-Hispanic white 69.0
Black 4.4
Asian 15.5
Hispanic 9.7

In the 2010 census, it was:

White 86.8
Non-Hispanic white 80.3
Black 3.0
Asian 6.9
Hispanic 9.4

But it's not just the racial demographic changes that are contributing to a political shift.  The county population has boomed (from 175K in 2010 to 244K in 2019) and a large element of this influx is younger and more educated people, typically in technical and professional jobs.  This is especially true in the southern part of the county, which has become kind of an overflow for the north Fulton cities of Alpharetta, Milton, and Johns Creek.

[WD]

So could Houston county Flip soon.

[Tartarus Sauce]

So could Houston county Flip soon.

I wouldn’t extrapolate that from primary data alone. Apples to oranges comparing primary elections to general elections. They can provide insight on potential trends though.

[Roronoa D. Law]

So could Houston county Flip soon.

I mean after Fayette it is the most likely semi-major county to flip to the Democrats.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Fulton County Board of Elections just voted to make State Farm Arena an Early Voting Precinct for the August run off and the fall. Press conference at 2.

https://twitter.com/davidaldridgedc/status/1277635598422024194?s=20