Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

Democrats have good leads in districts 6 and 7

This does make sense with the county numbers we're seeing, but where are you finding the data for CDs specifically?

http://georgiavotes.com/ doesn't have any partisan breakdown for CDs unfortunately.

Not sure where that data originates, but I did run the figures myself using the absentee voter file data (updated about an hour ago) from the Secretary of State. Unfortunately, I forgot to do returned ballots instead of mailed ballots, so it's worth deducting 1-2 points from the margins here in favor of Republicans. This also excludes non-partisan ballots.

From this, it seems Democrats have a double-digit lead in GA-6 and a very thin lead (~1-2 points) in GA-7 in terms of returned ballots. It's possible extensive campaigning and messaging within the metro has negated the returned/mailed difference (or even reversed it), but without additional confirmation, I'm skeptical.

 

[Adam Griffin]

Seeing Democrats only ahead by 3.4 points in GA-7 in requested ballots given...

1) 2018 performance (Abrams +1.4)
2) general suburban ballot overperformance of 7-15 points across most suburban counties

...is not the best sign in generic terms.

However, given the very large share of Latino & Asian voters in GA-7 and the fact that they tend not to participate in normal primaries/are more likely to move & therefore miss their ballot applications for this election (*waves from Whitfield County*) isn't necessarily indicative of GE performance either. Pretty sad that my precious Whitfield County has the largest Latino electorate by percentage in this primary (5%), but of course it also has the largest Latino population percentage as well (35%).

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Pretty sad that my precious Whitfield County has the largest Latino electorate by percentage in this primary (5%), but of course it also has the largest Latino population percentage as well (35%).

Really? Genuinely curious...how did NW Georgia get such a large Latino population?

[SevenEleven]

Pretty sad that my precious Whitfield County has the largest Latino electorate by percentage in this primary (5%), but of course it also has the largest Latino population percentage as well (35%).

Really? Genuinely curious...how did NW Georgia get such a large Latino population?

Textiles, mostly. I expect the Latino population to continue to grow throughout Georgia as more industrial companies move to the region.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Democrats have good leads in districts 6 and 7

This does make sense with the county numbers we're seeing, but where are you finding the data for CDs specifically?

http://georgiavotes.com/ doesn't have any partisan breakdown for CDs unfortunately.

I was using a lazy method of extrapolating from the 2018 gubernatorial margins where Democrats had expanded the Gwinnett margin another 6 points and closed the gap in Forsyth another 7.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/winwithjmc/status/1270334656597147648?s=21

[Gass3268]

Sounds like in person voting today as been a disaster. Massive lines, precincts with not enough machines, not enough ballots, machines not working, etc.

[SevenEleven]

Sounds like in person voting today as been a disaster. Massive lines, precincts with not enough machines, not enough ballots, machines not working, etc.

Like clockwork.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1270312105128988684

Wow. This is just an astonishing thread.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Seeing Democrats only ahead by 3.4 points in GA-7 in requested ballots given...

1) 2018 performance (Abrams +1.4)
2) general suburban ballot overperformance of 7-15 points across most suburban counties

...is not the best sign in generic terms.

However, given the very large share of Latino & Asian voters in GA-7 and the fact that they tend not to participate in normal primaries/are more likely to move & therefore miss their ballot applications for this election (*waves from Whitfield County*) isn't necessarily indicative of GE performance either. Pretty sad that my precious Whitfield County has the largest Latino electorate by percentage in this primary (5%), but of course it also has the largest Latino population percentage as well (35%).

You really just went all Dems in Disarray.

[here2view]

Does Ossoff clear 50 tonight?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Does Ossoff clear 50 tonight?

I'll bet he falls just short thanks to the chaotic process.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fulton County polls will remain open until 9pm per order of the county Superior Court.

[Oryxslayer]

Fulton County polls will remain open until 9pm per order of the county Superior Court.

Which means quite possibly everything will be uncounted until 9pm.

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1270477088513052674?s=20

EDIT: Not just fulton

https://twitter.com/JustinGrayWSB/status/1270472436358799360?s=20

[skbl17]

Actually, it might be later than that. DeKalb County will keep one polling place open until 10:10 tonight:

https://twitter.com/ItsInDeKalb/status/1270481778373992450

(huh, I actually used to attend two of the schools on this list, wow.)

[Adam Griffin]

Seeing Democrats only ahead by 3.4 points in GA-7 in requested ballots given...

1) 2018 performance (Abrams +1.4)
2) general suburban ballot overperformance of 7-15 points across most suburban counties

...is not the best sign in generic terms.

However, given the very large share of Latino & Asian voters in GA-7 and the fact that they tend not to participate in normal primaries/are more likely to move & therefore miss their ballot applications for this election (*waves from Whitfield County*) isn't necessarily indicative of GE performance either. Pretty sad that my precious Whitfield County has the largest Latino electorate by percentage in this primary (5%), but of course it also has the largest Latino population percentage as well (35%).

You really just went all Dems in Disarray.

Read my entire post, ya dullard.

[here2view]

Actually, it might be later than that. DeKalb County will keep one polling place open until 10:10 tonight:

https://twitter.com/ItsInDeKalb/status/1270481778373992450

(huh, I actually used to attend two of the schools on this list, wow.)

7:29 and 9:26 are kind of random times to close voting at those two places. I wonder how they decided on that?

[Continential]

Should Riggs Amico come second in the primary, I guarantee that Tomblinson would endorse her to spite Ossoff.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Are the vote totals counting mail-in ballots? A lot of the counties seem a bit light in votes to me based off of the Georgia votes website

[Rookie Yinzer]

Tomlinson bragged about being the candidate to spur Dem turnout in Central and South GA she's in fourth and fifth in a lot of those counties.

Amico is pretty much 2nd in the metro right now. Residual name rec from 2018? Because Tomlinson def spent more on tv, etc.

Endorsements mean nothing... Tomlinson endorsed by Mayor of Augusta and she's in fourth place in single digits.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Waittt.....

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1270562161648115716?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Representative Scott of GA13 looks like he may be heading for a runoff - anybody expected that? And against this person?

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1270569327268442112?s=20

[Adam Griffin]

Representative Scott of GA13 looks like he may be heading for a runoff - anybody expected that? And against this person?

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1270569327268442112?s=20

Glorious News! I certainly didn't expect it to happen.

Waittt.....

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1270562161648115716?s=20

Terrible News! This is what happens when you have next to no formal Democratic committees or infrastructure in SW Georgia. The guy doesn't even have a website, photo or campaign it appears. Still plenty of outstanding vote, though.

[Adam Griffin]

David Scott's almost certainly heading to a runoff (currently at 48.3% and dropping). At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if he dropped below 45%.

70k votes in thus far (will be at least another 30-40k), with Clayton over-represented. Scott's at or below 46% right now in every county but Clayton (where he has 55%). Lots of mail ballots to be counted still and whether there are any real biases between ED/AIP/ABM may change the math, but Waites is holding strong in her home turf of Fulton - and pretty much everywhere else at the moment except Clayton and Fayette. She could end up hitting 35% if everything goes well for her.



Reporting %s aren't necessarily accurate; there are numerous counties around the state that say "100%" that still don't have mail ballots included, which are close to half of all votes. Best to consider the reporting percentages reflective of in-person vote, with no guarantees on mail ballots.

[S019]

Trammell has won his primary, it was called by the NYT with 87% in and Trammell is leading 56-44.


In GA-07, Carolyn Bourdeaux looks very likely to go to a runoff (probably with Brenda Romero). Bourdeaux has 46.2% of the vote with 91% in, all of Forsyth and 91% of Gwinnett is in.