Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Ossoff is at 49.83 now....

Is that before DeKalb is added?

[S019]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/09/us/elections/results-georgia-senate-primary-election.html, Ossoff now at 50%, exact numbers are 50.013%, according to NYT.

[Rookie Yinzer]

This won't age well.

https://twitter.com/teresatomlinson/status/1270753160487993350?s=20

[Storr]

This won't age well.

https://twitter.com/teresatomlinson/status/1270753160487993350?s=20

She's giving Karen Handel a race for most incompetent Georgia Senate campaign.

[Landslide Lyndon]

This won't age well.

https://twitter.com/teresatomlinson/status/1270753160487993350?s=20

Amazing how she managed to show how awful a candidate she was even on her way out.

[YE]

Scott at 49.22% with 10 precincts left. Think he narrowly avoids a runoff here to someone with no ActBlue and has raised less than my bank account.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Anyway I’m ready for November. We are at war in GA and it’s time to coalesce now. Tomlinson, go home and run with Abrams as LG in 2022. We are out here fighting for our lives right now.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

In Gwinnett County as a whole, Democrats are currently outvoting Republicans 65-35.

Cobb County is smaller but noticeable 59-41

Republicans ahead 52-48 in Fayette County and 68-32 in Forsyth County

The GA D trend looks to be accelerating, not slowing down or staying the same.

[Adam Griffin]

70k votes in thus far (will be at least another 30-40k), with Clayton over-represented. Scott's at or below 46% right now in every county but Clayton (where he has 55%). Lots of mail ballots to be counted still and whether there are any real biases between ED/AIP/ABM may change the math

And there certainly was! It's like every rebellious vote got counted last night and all that was left to count today were incumbency/name rec ballots. Not surprising given mail voters are going to be older; same situation we saw with Sanders %s in most counties before and after mail ballots started being counted last night. However, it was a big difference in GA-13.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Tomlinson just conceded:

https://twitter.com/teresatomlinson/status/1270884602635341824?s=20

[Adam Griffin]

So just glancing around - for the Democratic primary alone - it appears there are at least 75,000 votes outstanding in Fulton/Dekalb combined, and potentially 50,000 or more in Gwinnett/Cobb.

On top of that, there are still plenty of counties where mail ballots are obviously not (fully) counted. Forsyth is one example: there should be no fewer than 10,000 D ballots there (maybe closer to 15-20k), yet there are only around 6,000 D presently.

Floyd is another example: only around 1,500 D presently, when it will likely end up in the 4k range.

Several thousand D ballots at minimum haven't been counted in Bibb based on its turnout relative to Muscogee and Richmond.

[n1240]

So just glancing around - for the Democratic primary alone - it appears there are at least 75,000 votes outstanding in Fulton/Dekalb combined, and potentially 50,000 or more in Gwinnett/Cobb.

On top of that, there are still plenty of counties where mail ballots are obviously not (fully) counted. Forsyth is one example: there should be no fewer than 10,000 D ballots there (maybe closer to 15-20k), yet there are only around 6,000 D presently.

Floyd is another example: only around 1,500 D presently, when it will likely end up in the 4k range.

Several thousand D ballots at minimum haven't been counted in Bibb based on its turnout relative to Muscogee and Richmond.

My estimates based on comparing votes counted by vote type and number of absentees reported as returned:

Fulton has around 20k left, DeKalb maybe around 75k.

Gwinnett around 50k, Cobb 35k.

Forsyth has yet to report any mail-in absentees, around 9k or to there.

Bibb hasn't even included any absentees (mail-in or early in person) in their totals, should be around 17k votes there.

[DINGO Joe]

So just glancing around - for the Democratic primary alone - it appears there are at least 75,000 votes outstanding in Fulton/Dekalb combined, and potentially 50,000 or more in Gwinnett/Cobb.

On top of that, there are still plenty of counties where mail ballots are obviously not (fully) counted. Forsyth is one example: there should be no fewer than 10,000 D ballots there (maybe closer to 15-20k), yet there are only around 6,000 D presently.

Floyd is another example: only around 1,500 D presently, when it will likely end up in the 4k range.

Several thousand D ballots at minimum haven't been counted in Bibb based on its turnout relative to Muscogee and Richmond.

My estimates based on comparing votes counted by vote type and number of absentees reported as returned:

Fulton has around 20k left, DeKalb maybe around 75k.

Gwinnett around 50k, Cobb 35k.

Forsyth has yet to report any mail-in absentees, around 9k or to there.

Bibb hasn't even included any absentees (mail-in or early in person) in their totals, should be around 17k votes there.

Chatham looks about 25k short too

[Adam Griffin]

Well, it looks like the SoS finally caught up somewhat in displayed counts over the past couple of hours (prior, there were only like 600k D votes).

DDHQ shows 829762, NYT shows 829283 & SoS shows 812710. With that update, Democrats officially take the SoS statewide primary lead:

DEM PPP: 812,710 (50.19%)
GOP PPP: 806,428 (49.81%)
TOTAL: 1,619,138

DEM SEN: 885,282 (51.35%)
GOP SEN: 838,630 (48.65%)
TOTAL: 1,723,912

With 104,000 votes difference between presidential and senatorial, those pre-cancellation Feb/Mar PPP ballots likely haven't been fully counted by all (or most) counties yet, which likely explains the margin difference between the two contests. Democrats might win the ballot count by >5 points once everything is counted.

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like one or more bigger, GOP counties' post-March mail ballots came in over the last 12 hours: 31667 new votes via SoS, with almost 60% of them being Republican.

In the PPP totals, there was a GOP gain of 18904 votes and a DEM gain of 12757 votes. Given the widening of the PPP/SEN totals (from a 104k difference to 108k), these almost certainly were not pre-cancellation ballots.

DEM PPP: 825,467 (50.00%)
GOP PPP: 825,332 (50.00%)
TOTAL: 1,650,799

DEM SEN: 899,795 (51.17%)
GOP SEN: 858,752 (48.83%)
TOTAL: 1,758,547

[Adam Griffin]

Another hour and a half, and a big Democratic dump. A total of 41,002 new votes in the presidential primary (31,238 D, 9,764 R) and 46,502 new votes in the senatorial primary (36,026 D, 10,476 R). PPP/SEN primary gap widens from 108k to 113k. They're still counting just post-March mail ballots, apparently.

DEM PPP: 856,705 (50.64%)
GOP PPP: 835,096 (49.36%)
TOTAL: 1,691,801

DEM SEN: 935,821 (51.84%)
GOP SEN: 869,228 (48.16%)
TOTAL: 1,805,049

[Adam Griffin]

Since last update:

8576 new PPP ballots:
+4788 D
+3788 R

8965 new SEN ballots:
+5026 D
+3939 R

DEM PPP: 861,493 (50.66%)
GOP PPP: 838,884 (49.34%)
TOTAL: 1,700,377

DEM SEN: 940,847 (51.87%)
GOP SEN: 873,167 (48.13%)
TOTAL: 1,814,014

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Since last update:

8576 new PPP ballots:
+4788 D
+3788 R

8965 new SEN ballots:
+5026 D
+3939 R

DEM PPP: 861,493 (50.66%)
GOP PPP: 838,884 (49.34%)
TOTAL: 1,700,377

DEM SEN: 940,847 (51.87%)
GOP SEN: 873,167 (48.13%)
TOTAL: 1,814,014

I wonder if that Senate gap can grow to 100k

[Adam Griffin]

OK, so the status shown via SoS is a bit confusing and counterintuitive, but I think I've deciphered what it means.

The counties in green (47) have completely finished counting all results: ED, AIP, post-March ABM and pre-March ABM.

The counties in purple (100) have completely finished counting all Election Day vote, but have not completed their mail ballot counts (or even potentially EV, though that's almost always counted first by counties).

The counties in yellow (10) apparently have not finished counting neither their Election Day ballots nor their mail ballots.

Not sure what's up with Jasper and Echols; glitches, presumably. It's also possible that pre-March ballots are not included for the "completely reported" status, as they were technically for a different primary/on a different day and so may be treated in a separate category by some/all counties when measuring this status.

This doesn't include provisional ballots, which cannot be finalized until after close of business on Friday.

[Adam Griffin]

I wonder if that Senate gap can grow to 100k

Definitely possible. If there are 100k outstanding ballots or more that lean 2:1 D, it'll happen. I wouldn't be surprised if there are still 100k Democratic ballots (excluding the PPP-only ones) left to count; may be closer to the 75k range at this point, though. The yellow counties above tell a broader story of where the bulk seems to be remaining.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Democrats ahead by just over 15% in GA-06 now. GA-07 has fallen to 58-42 D

[Adam Griffin]

Democrats ahead by just over 15% in GA-06 now. GA-07 has fallen to 58-42 D

Assuming I haven't made any mistakes...

Comparing last night's absentee spreadsheet to current SoS votes in Gwinnett, there are still another 60k ballots outstanding in Gwinnett.

Gwinnett Early Vote/Mail Ballots Accepted (via SoS Results):
DEM: 23558 (59.30%)
GOP: 16165 (40.70%)

Gwinnett Early Vote/Mail Ballots Accepted (via SoS Absentee Spreadsheet):
DEM: 61364 (60.41%)
GOP: 40209 (39.59%)

Which means, outstanding...

DEM: 37806 (61.12%)
GOP: 24044 (38.88%)

[n1240]

Democrats ahead by just over 15% in GA-06 now. GA-07 has fallen to 58-42 D

Assuming I haven't made any mistakes...

Comparing last night's absentee spreadsheet to current SoS votes in Gwinnett, there are still another 60k ballots outstanding in Gwinnett.

Gwinnett Early Vote/Mail Ballots Accepted (via SoS Results):
DEM: 23558 (59.30%)
GOP: 16165 (40.70%)

Gwinnett Early Vote/Mail Ballots Accepted (via SoS Absentee Spreadsheet):
DEM: 61364 (60.41%)
GOP: 40209 (39.59%)

Which means, outstanding...

DEM: 37806 (61.12%)
GOP: 24044 (38.88%)

Bourdeaux is still running pretty strong, holding steady at winning 67% of the mail-in absentees. She's gone from 46.0% -> 47.0% in overall margin from the last 3000 votes added.

[DINGO Joe]

OK, so the status shown via SoS is a bit confusing and counterintuitive, but I think I've deciphered what it means.

The counties in green (47) have completely finished counting all results: ED, AIP, post-March ABM and pre-March ABM.

The counties in purple (100) have completely finished counting all Election Day vote, but have not completed their mail ballot counts (or even potentially EV, though that's almost always counted first by counties).

The counties in yellow (10) apparently have not finished counting neither their Election Day ballots nor their mail ballots.

Not sure what's up with Jasper and Echols; glitches, presumably. It's also possible that pre-March ballots are not included for the "completely reported" status, as they were technically for a different primary/on a different day and so may be treated in a separate category by some/all counties when measuring this status.

This doesn't include provisional ballots, which cannot be finalized until after close of business on Friday.

I dunno if places like Coweta and Houston are complete, they aren't sharing the results with anyone.

Alright--Coweta just updated.

[n1240]

Bourdeaux is still running pretty strong, holding steady at winning 67% of the mail-in absentees. She's gone from 46.0% -> 47.0% in overall margin from the last 3000 votes added.

Up to 48.7% after Forsyth absentees, seems like I was correct to say the AP called this race prematurely.