Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Fulton County Board of Elections just voted to make State Farm Arena an Early Voting Precinct for the August run off and the fall. Press conference at 2.

https://twitter.com/davidaldridgedc/status/1277635598422024194?s=20

Good sh**t

[Adam Griffin]

After some facetious commentary elsewhere, I decided to look at the trajectory of a 7-county area that's essentially the North ATL suburbs/exurbs. This area was 942k people in 2010 (9.7% of state) and 1.06m in 2018 (10.3% of state). Georgia would have voted both for Clinton (narrow plurality) and Abrams (clear majority) without this area.

Mixed feelings here. On one hand, this has been ground zero for GOP dominance in the state for the past 20 years, so seeing it as the most compact and smallest (geographically and population-wise) area still wrecking statewide Democratic fortunes is unsurprising (and a bit gratifying, given my disdain for suburbrons and exurbrons). On the other hand, I really expected more movement here between 2016 and 2018; Trump and Kemp basically got the same share of voters, with Abrams (mathematically) absorbing nearly all of the '16 third-party voters who backed a major party candidate in '18.

[Adam Griffin]

No new PPP/SEN primary vote updates since last Friday, so I'm assuming all votes are now counted.

[Rookie Yinzer]

What's the deadline for people to withdraw their name from appearing on the ballot in the Jungle Primary?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What's the deadline for people to withdraw their name from appearing on the ballot in the Jungle Primary?

Doesnt matter. Kemp & co will find some way to force them on the ballot being the crooks they are regardless of when the deadline is

[Adam Griffin]

What's the deadline for people to withdraw their name from appearing on the ballot in the Jungle Primary?

Not sure if the law is applied differently for federal candidates than state candidates, but in the case of the latter, OCGA 21-2-134 (specifically Section 2) essentially says that a candidate can withdraw at any time; if they withdraw prior to the printing of paper ballots/dissemination of digital ballots, then their name will not appear, but if they withdraw after ballots have been printed, it is at the discretion of the SoS, county or state to reissue ballots or not (or in the case of SoS, order reprinting of ballots).

In recent years, the only paper ballots were mail (and provisional) ballots and those were generally finalized approximately two months before Election Day (handled by each county; exact dates obviously varied). Given we now have a hybrid system where all voters will use paper ballots either via mail or to be scanned at precincts, it's honestly a bigger concern. I doubt most counties will completely finalize (as in printing) any paper/mail ballots prior to September 1.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

After some facetious commentary elsewhere, I decided to look at the trajectory of a 7-county area that's essentially the North ATL suburbs/exurbs. This area was 942k people in 2010 (9.7% of state) and 1.06m in 2018 (10.3% of state). Georgia would have voted both for Clinton (narrow plurality) and Abrams (clear majority) without this area.

Mixed feelings here. On one hand, this has been ground zero for GOP dominance in the state for the past 20 years, so seeing it as the most compact and smallest (geographically and population-wise) area still wrecking statewide Democratic fortunes is unsurprising (and a bit gratifying, given my disdain for suburbrons and exurbrons). On the other hand, I really expected more movement here between 2016 and 2018; Trump and Kemp basically got the same share of voters, with Abrams (mathematically) absorbing nearly all of the '16 third-party voters who backed a major party candidate in '18.

This doesn't really surprise me. The GOP has to have run up votes in some populated areas to be a viable national party and the exurbs have remained in GOP hands even as the suburbs have fallen. Compare Temecula against Laguna Niguel, or Conroe against Sugarland. They aren't the same. Understandably, the parts of Georgia which are moving to Dems the hardest are the inner-ring suburbs: Marietta, Alpharetta, Duluth, Sandy Springs, and so on. There's a fundamental difference between these places and areas like Cumming, and it makes sense that they have differing political trends.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, this isn’t that surprising. The problem for the GOP is that those exurbs are even more maxed out than most of the rural areas at this point (and we all know that those are probably only one cycle away from being maxed out as well), so even a slight D shift in those exurban counties would be enough to flip the state as long as Republicans lack the votes elsewhere in the state to offset the ugly trends in the Atlanta area, which are still continuing at lightning speed. If anything, the fact that the state is this close to flipping despite the fact that the GOP still keeps racking up massive margins in those exurban areas and hasn’t collapsed to the same extent in the Augusta and Savannah metropolitan areas either should scare the living daylights out of the GA GOP.

Not to mention that a 10-point gain (going from R+56 to R+46) in six years is definitely significant, especially when it’s more than the margin needed to flip the state under uniform swing from 2012 -> 2018.

[Continential]

I doubt that Lieberman would drop out as where could he run for in 2022 if Warrenock wins, as GA Dems has a whole bench of candidates, if he drops of and Warenock loses, maybe he could be the 2022 nominee?

[Adam Griffin]

Not to mention that a 10-point gain (going from R+56 to R+46) in six years is definitely significant, especially when it’s more than the margin needed to flip the state under uniform swing from 2012 -> 2018.

I mean...it was 7 statewide over the same time period: not exactly impressive given the rate of demographic turnover in these areas matches or exceeds the state depending on the exact county (and that's before getting into shifts in educational & income splits, which in these areas should produce above-average trends by themselves).


As implied, the broader point was how some want to talk about places like Forsyth and Cherokee as if they're the Democratic Party's future, and so many want to deride the rurals. While narrowed margins in such places can and will make statewide victory possible mathematically, kissing the asses of people in these kinds of places is ludicrous.

Just one more example to illustrate how horrible these places are: deduct every single Clinton county from the equation, and divide the rest into two groups (the 7 outlined above, and literally everything else - which is mostly rural territory). Even in 2018, the north ATL exurbs were still more pro-Kemp than the rest of the non-Democratic state.

Angsty GOP North ATL Exurbs:
Kemp: 72.20%
Abrams: 26.51%

Georgia's Rubes and Malcontents:
Kemp: 70.45%
Abrams: 28.72%

And for what it's worth, the margin difference in 2016 between the 2 groups was 8 points, while it was 4 points in 2018. From a generic rube's perspective (where negative demographic shifts are occurring geographically-speaking), literally making them vote for a loud and proud black female who talked constantly about guns and Confederate flags could only buy the exurbs 4 points of relative improvement over them - which I'd wager all (and then some, possibly) came from positive demographic turnover occurring in those exurbs. Anyway, it's just food for thought before people start falling in love with Forsyth or whatever.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Paulding, Hall, Bartow, Jackson, and Barrow will likely remain republican in the coming decades, but Forsyth and Cherokee are trending democratic at a rapid rate. I think Forsyth could be democratic by 2028 or so

[DINGO Joe]

It's a shame that Atlanta doesn't really grow towards the Bama side or else these R exburbs could have already been shoved into Alabama making Georgia Titanium D.  Of course Alabama would be even more deplorable

[skbl17]

The primary results have finally been certified. Looking once again at the General Assembly primary races, you can see the Dems ahead in many GOP-held seats, but a word of caution: there are several seats (HD-47 for instance) where the margins are close enough that it could be down to the relative competitiveness of the top-of-ballot races on the Dem side versus the Republican side.

However, there are some Republicans (SD-9, SD-56, HD-49, HD-104, HD-109 for example) who fell so far behind that I think Dems have great chances to win their seats, even after taking into account the odd idiosyncrasies in the two-party primary dynamic this year.

Anyway, here are the final two-party margins, plus some rudimentary ratings straight out the gate (I'm new at this; some of these ratings are bullish while some are bearish - there's a lot of "gut feeling" stuff going on):

State Senate
DEM: 944,167 (51.64%) - lead in 26 districts
GOP: 884,266 (48.36%) - lead in 30 districts

GOP-held districts where Dems won majority of primary votes:
SD-9 (59.0% DEM)
SD-17 (53.8% DEM)
SD-37 (50.4% DEM)
SD-45 (50.8% DEM)
SD-56 (58.6% DEM)

There are no Dem-held seats where the GOP won the majority of the primary votes. The closest is SD-48 in Gwinnett and Fulton counties, which was 65% DEM.

Out the primary gate, I would rate the general election matchups like this:
- SD-9: Lean D (flip)
- SD-56: Tilt D (flip)
- SD-17: Tilt R
- SD-37: Likely R
- SD-45: Likely R
- SD-32: Very Likely R

All Dem-held seats are Safe D.

In other words, 33-23 GOP (+2 DEM). The state Senate is Safe R, because even if the Dems manage to win all the seats they led in during the primary, and even win SD-32 (51.5% GOP), I only get them to 27 seats, two seats short of an overall majority.

State House
DEM: 952,498 (52.12%) - lead in 89 districts
GOP: 875,044 (47.88%) - lead in 91 districts

GOP-held districts where Dems won majority of primary votes:
HD-35 (57.7% DEM)
HD-43 (52.6% DEM)
HD-44 (50.5% DEM)
HD-47 (50.2% DEM)
HD-49 (57.4% DEM)
HD-52 (64.5% DEM)
HD-97 (53.1% DEM)
HD-104 (58.0% DEM)
HD-106 (64.3% DEM)
HD-109 (58.4% DEM)
HD-117 (50.4% DEM)
HD-145 (51.0% DEM)
HD-151 (66.1% DEM)
HD-164 (53.7% DEM)

Again, there are no Dem-held seats where the GOP won the majority of the primary votes. The closest is HD-132, the seat of minority leader Bob Trammell, which was 51.8% DEM.

Out of the primary gate, I would rate the general election matchups like this:
- HD-37: Likely D
- HD-48: Likely D
- HD-108: Likely D
- HD-132: Tilt D
- HD-35: Tilt D (flip)
- HD-43: Tilt R
- HD-44: Likely R
- HD-45: Likely R
- HD-47: Likely R
- HD-49: Tilt D (flip)
- HD-52: Very Likely D (flip)
- HD-97: Tossup
- HD-104: Tilt D (flip)
- HD-106: Very Likely D (flip)
- HD-109: Tilt D (flip)
- HD-110: Likely R
- HD-117: Lean R
- HD-119: Likely R
- HD-138: Lean R
- HD-145: Lean R
- HD-147: Likely R
- HD-151: Lean R, explanation below
- HD-164: Tossup

All other seats are safe for the incumbent party.

In other words, 99-81 GOP (+6 DEM). There are enough "non-safe" GOP-held seats where the Dems could, hypothetically, win a slim majority if they win most of the "non-safe" seats. Not impossible, but hard to do in light of the traditional "incumbent bonus" members of the state legislature have, especially if they can avoid becoming an individual lightning rod for controversy. The state House is Very Likely R.

A note about HD-151: this is one of those rural seats were things are tricky to quantify. The "66.1% DEM" number in the two-party primary race looks outstanding for Dems, but unlike the metro seats where such a number convinces me the seat is likely to flip, HD-151 is a rural seat held by an institution of the state House: Gerald Greene, the Republican from Cuthbert. Greene has an unbelievable ability to defy the partisan makeup of his district; I believe he actually does a good job with constituent outreach and enjoys a good amount of crossover support. Case in point, when Dems actually tried to knock him off here in 2018, they lost, even though the primary margins and overall demographics of the seat should point to an easy pickup.

The primary margins and demographics are good enough to where Dems can't be counted out, but I do believe Greene is favored at this point.

[QAnonKelly]

Abortion bill officially thrown out. I’m so glad the state spent so much money to defend something that we all know was going to end up this way. Kemp amazes me with his wise governing at every turn.

[lfromnj]

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/lawsuit-georgia-public-service-commission-elections-harm-black-voters/Lh0cPqPzYY6ove2R0Ehz1N/

Georgia Democrats want to divide the PSC into 5 districts for VRA purposes.(this is for elections too)
Advantage for Democrats: They get a free seat rn
Cons: Its 5 districts and dividing Georgia into 5 gives you a perfect COI of Clayton+Dekalb+ Fulton which is exactly 1/5 the state and a mega D pack .

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Abortion bill officially thrown out. I’m so glad the state spent so much money to defend something that we all know was going to end up this way. Kemp amazes me with his wise governing at every turn.

Thank god!! This was one of my main issues with Georgia and I'm glad it's gone

[ON Progressive]

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/lawsuit-georgia-public-service-commission-elections-harm-black-voters/Lh0cPqPzYY6ove2R0Ehz1N/

Georgia Democrats want to divide the PSC into 5 districts for VRA purposes.(this is for elections too)
Advantage for Democrats: They get a free seat rn
Cons: Its 5 districts and dividing Georgia into 5 gives you a perfect COI of Clayton+Dekalb+ Fulton which is exactly 1/5 the state and a mega D pack .

Couldn’t one pretty easily argue that a Clayton + DeKalb + Fulton district would be a racial gerrymander because of packing black voters though?

[cg41386]

Kemp... what the bleep is wrong with him? Yes, I realize the list is long.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Kemp... what the bleep is wrong with him? Yes, I realize the list is long.

I will drive all across this state in 2022 to get people to the polls to get his ass out. He is diabolical.

[QAnonKelly]

Kemp... what the bleep is wrong with him? Yes, I realize the list is long.

He knows he’s the last R Governor for the foreseeable future and is doing everything in his power to be lowered into the (proverbial) grave with two middle fingers up.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Kemp... what the bleep is wrong with him? Yes, I realize the list is long.

He knows he’s the last R Governor for the foreseeable future and is doing everything in his power to be lowered into the (proverbial) grave with two middle fingers up.

This is a very perceptive way of seeing it, and I agree.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/jasonesteves/status/1284619319842938880

[Continential]

https://twitter.com/jasonesteves/status/1284619319842938880

All GA posters living in GA-5 should apply.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/jasonesteves/status/1284619319842938880

All GA posters living in GA-5 should apply.

Less than 48 hours to pick who will hold the seat for the next few decades!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Will Abrams go for it?