Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

A few years back, I made this similar graph which at the time had projections for 2016-2024. Those projections were quite optimistic (in large part because there was heavy weight on the Obama years in terms of demographic shifts, and also because black voters specifically were better categorized as black by SoS prior to 2015 or so).

Nevertheless, I have updated and revised, adding the most recent two elections and including the 2017 1-Year ACS & 2019 Census as well.

For all previous elections/years, Census data and race breakdowns via SoS are used. Much like the SoS pivoted from an all-encompassing "Other" category in 2004 that made tracking specific non-white, non-black groups difficult until then, new registrants (i.e. disproportionately non-white registrants) for the past 5 years or so have been disproportionately categorized as "other" or "unknown". This plays a major role in why the black share of the electorate is smaller in 2016 & 2018 than in 2012 & 2014 (though not 100% of the cause) and why "other" jumps over the same period. This is also why the 2020-24 projections may seem "gentler" than some might expect.

Full-sized image

What would 2020 look like with these breakdown differentials vis-à-vis 2018 GA Gov?

Assuming a replication of Abrams' margins (particularly among black voters), Democrats would receive 49.8% of the vote (±0.2 points). The variance is due to the potential difference in "other" composition between the two elections and/or how exactly you calculate Abrams support among that group.

[Dr. Arch]

A few years back, I made this similar graph which at the time had projections for 2016-2024. Those projections were quite optimistic (in large part because there was heavy weight on the Obama years in terms of demographic shifts, and also because black voters specifically were better categorized as black by SoS prior to 2015 or so).

Nevertheless, I have updated and revised, adding the most recent two elections and including the 2017 1-Year ACS & 2019 Census as well.

For all previous elections/years, Census data and race breakdowns via SoS are used. Much like the SoS pivoted from an all-encompassing "Other" category in 2004 that made tracking specific non-white, non-black groups difficult until then, new registrants (i.e. disproportionately non-white registrants) for the past 5 years or so have been disproportionately categorized as "other" or "unknown". This plays a major role in why the black share of the electorate is smaller in 2016 & 2018 than in 2012 & 2014 (though not 100% of the cause) and why "other" jumps over the same period. This is also why the 2020-24 projections may seem "gentler" than some might expect.

Full-sized image

What would 2020 look like with these breakdown differentials vis-à-vis 2018 GA Gov?

Assuming a replication of Abrams' margins (particularly among black voters), Democrats would receive 49.8% of the vote (±0.2 points). The variance is due to the potential difference in "other" composition between the two elections and/or how exactly you calculate Abrams support among that group.

GA for Democrats currently can really be summarized like this:

[Adam Griffin]

Didn't see a post about this, but it's (tentatively) a big deal:

Judge rules Georgia ballots mailed by Election Day must be counted

A federal judge on Monday extended the deadline for absentee ballots to be returned in Georgia, ruling that they must be counted if postmarked by Election Day and delivered up to three days afterward.

The decision will likely result in tens of thousands of ballots being counted after Nov. 3 that would have otherwise been rejected, enough to swing close elections. The ruling invalidates Georgia’s requirement that ballots had to be received at county election offices by 7 p.m. on Election Day.

U.S. District Judge Eleanor Ross wrote that voters must be protected during the coronavirus pandemic, when record numbers of Georgians are expected to cast absentee ballots.

“Extending the deadline would ensure that voters who receive their ballots shortly before Election Day are able to mail their ballots without fear that their vote will not count,” Ross wrote in her 70-page order.

The secretary of state’s office plans to immediately appeal the ruling.

[Adam Griffin]

Assuming a replication of Abrams' margins (particularly among black voters), Democrats would receive 49.8% of the vote (±0.2 points). The variance is due to the potential difference in "other" composition between the two elections and/or how exactly you calculate Abrams support among that group.

GA for Democrats currently can really be summarized like this:

I should also point out that the numbers above are not a two-way model, which means that (at least for President), it'd be a win for Democrats of 0.4-1.8 points. Obviously for any other statewide races, it would very likely signify a runoff...

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

A few years back, I made this similar graph which at the time had projections for 2016-2024. Those projections were quite optimistic (in large part because there was heavy weight on the Obama years in terms of demographic shifts, and also because black voters specifically were better categorized as black by SoS prior to 2015 or so).

Nevertheless, I have updated and revised, adding the most recent two elections and including the 2017 1-Year ACS & 2019 Census as well.

For all previous elections/years, Census data and race breakdowns via SoS are used. Much like the SoS pivoted from an all-encompassing "Other" category in 2004 that made tracking specific non-white, non-black groups difficult until then, new registrants (i.e. disproportionately non-white registrants) for the past 5 years or so have been disproportionately categorized as "other" or "unknown". This plays a major role in why the black share of the electorate is smaller in 2016 & 2018 than in 2012 & 2014 (though not 100% of the cause) and why "other" jumps over the same period. This is also why the 2020-24 projections may seem "gentler" than some might expect.

Full-sized image

Does this mean that the "Other" category includes a sizable share of newly-registered Black voters?

[Adam Griffin]

A few years back, I made this similar graph which at the time had projections for 2016-2024. Those projections were quite optimistic (in large part because there was heavy weight on the Obama years in terms of demographic shifts, and also because black voters specifically were better categorized as black by SoS prior to 2015 or so).

Nevertheless, I have updated and revised, adding the most recent two elections and including the 2017 1-Year ACS & 2019 Census as well.

For all previous elections/years, Census data and race breakdowns via SoS are used. Much like the SoS pivoted from an all-encompassing "Other" category in 2004 that made tracking specific non-white, non-black groups difficult until then, new registrants (i.e. disproportionately non-white registrants) for the past 5 years or so have been disproportionately categorized as "other" or "unknown". This plays a major role in why the black share of the electorate is smaller in 2016 & 2018 than in 2012 & 2014 (though not 100% of the cause) and why "other" jumps over the same period. This is also why the 2020-24 projections may seem "gentler" than some might expect.

Full-sized image

Does this mean that the "Other" category includes a sizable share of newly-registered Black voters?

Yes (especially post-2015). While I haven't had unabashed statewide voter file access in some time, based on past access and relative black flat-lining in population percentage growth since then, I feel fairly confident in simplistically approximating the "other" category as displayed here as 30% Latino, 25% black, 25% white and 20% Asian (not including other racial rounding errors). Also, it has seemed that over time, at least some of these improper individual racial classifications get corrected via other state data-sets updating their info, though I am not 100% sure about that phenomenon. However, I'm not really looking to take an otherwise series of "official" data-sets and inject my own approximations into the mix.

If you want to do such in determining true black vote share from 2012 onward, however, then:

2012: 32.2%
2014: 30.7%
2016: 30.6%
2018: 31.9%

So based on these corrections, real black voter share in 2012 is still the strongest black showing in GA's history, and 2014's was identical to 2016's. This means that even prior to 2016, the "other" category still included a meaningful amount of both black and white voters, but circa 2015 is when SoS race classifications went off the deep end and large segments of all newly-registered voters began being classified as "unknown/other" by SoS.

Of course and if you want to be reflective of both sides of the political coin, you also need to correct for real white vote share as well:

2012: 63.6%
2014: 65.4%
2016: 63.6%
2018: 62.0%

Not as steep of a decline as it might appear on paper...basically, Latino and Asian voters were responsible for all of the non-white demographic shift between the 2012 and 2016 elections, and were responsible for half of the non-white shift between 2014 and 2018.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Yes (especially post-2015). While I haven't had unabashed statewide voter file access in some time, I feel fairly confident in simplistically approximating the "other" category as displayed here as 30% Latino, 25% black, 25% white and 20% Asian (not including other racial rounding errors). Also, it has seemed that over time, at least some of these improper individual racial classifications get corrected via other state data-sets, though I am not 100% sure about that. However, I'm not really looking to take an otherwise series of "official" data-sets and inject my own approximations into the mix.

However, if you want to do such in determining true black vote share from 2012 onward, then:

2012: 32.2%
2014: 30.7%
2016: 30.6%
2018: 31.9%

So based on these corrections, real black voter share in 2012 was still a tad larger than in 2018, and 2014's was identical to 2016's. This means that even prior to 2016, the "other" category still included a meaningful amount of both black and white voters, but circa 2015 is when SoS race classifications went off the deep end and large segments of all newly-registered voters began being classified as "unknown/other" by SoS).

I understand. Indeed it felt a bit strange to me that the official Black share of the vote never crossed 30% in those years. Thank you!

About the bolded part: any hope this gets solved in the near future?

[Adam Griffin]

I understand. Indeed it felt a bit strange to me that the official Black share of the vote never crossed 30% in those years. Thank you!

About the bolded part: any hope this gets solved in the near future?

I updated my original post with some more information. I can't be for sure, but it does seem that in between the heat of each election cycle, the percentage of other/unknown voters drops and the percentage of black voters increases, which makes me think that other data-sets via the state get incorporated and update this information. Especially now that GA has opt-out AVR via the Department of Motor Vehicles (since December 2016), every time somebody gets or renews a license, there is an explicit update to their voter registration.

(Also keep in mind that in comparison to my graph, SoS has had categories for Asian, Latino, Native-American, etc since 2004, so the explicit SoS percentages of "other/unknown" are lower than displayed above).

[Adam Griffin]

If it is successful long-term, we just might get a Democratic Wilkinson County back!

19 families buy nearly 97 acres of land in Georgia to create a city safe for Black people

(CNN)"Welcome to Freedom!" exclaims real estate agent Ashley Scott as she surveys the nearly 97 acres of land that she and a group of 19 Black families purchased in August.

"I'm hoping that it will be a thriving safe haven for people of color, for Black families in particular," Scott says.

The land sits just East of Macon in rural Wilkinson County, Georgia. Scott and her friend, investor and entrepreneur Renee Walters, didn't initially plan on buying a large plot of land, but they had a vision that was clear -- to create a safe space for their Black families.

...

Scott and Walters plan to develop the land in phases. The first phase involves clearing the land, farming, and creating a man-made lake for sustainable fishing.

At a ribbon-cutting ceremony, Scott said while they didn't know the exact history of their plot of land, the symbolism of reclaiming this land gives them an opportunity to write their own story.

They hope to grow within a few years. By the end of their development plan, they hope to have a fully operational, self-sufficient city -- putting Freedom, Georgia, on the map.

Location of Toomsboro, GA

Wilkinson County:
2008: McCain +1.1
2010: Barnes +2.6
2012: Romney +1.5
2014: Carter +0.2
2016: Trump +10.3
2018: Kemp +11.6

[Adam Griffin]

I'm hoping either tonight or tomorrow night, the absentee voter file will be available via SoS:

https://elections.sos.ga.gov/Elections/voterabsenteefile.do

I'm thinking maybe since the state is processing & mailing all online mail ballots requested by September 15 (and mailing them out on 9/18), that is why it has taken so long for this data to appear (usually it shows up in early September). After today, the counties will begin processing & mailing all mail ballot requests themselves, so perhaps we'll see the absentee file finally appear sometime this week at minimum.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm hoping either tonight or tomorrow night, the absentee voter file will be available via SoS:

https://elections.sos.ga.gov/Elections/voterabsenteefile.do

I'm thinking maybe since the state is processing & mailing all online mail ballots requested by September 15 (and mailing them out on 9/18), that is why it has taken so long for this data to appear (usually it shows up in early September). After today, the counties will begin processing & mailing all mail ballot requests themselves, so perhaps we'll see the absentee file finally appear sometime this week at minimum.

It's finally up! Unfortunately, there's no statewide file - just 159 individual county files.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm obviously not digging through the individual files and I've never had much luck at merging them in the past, but based on packed/unpacked file sizes and the number of voters in the largest counties, it appears we're somewhere in the vicinity of 875,000 - 950,000 requested mail ballots as of Tuesday (this includes people who voted in the primary who were 65+, who automatically receive ballots for all elections within a cycle).

[GeorgiaModerate]

FWIW, I can verify the ballot request site works.  The absentee file shows my application (I entered it the first day the website was online).

[skbl17]

FWIW, I can verify the ballot request site works.  The absentee file shows my application (I entered it the first day the website was online).

Yep, I also see mine in the file.

[Adam Griffin]

My estimate was very approximate and based on file sizes for each county, but Ryan Anderson (the guy who runs georgiavote.com) says:

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1306209379956535297

Hopefully his site will be functioning in the next couple of days (though he usually only did returned votes + the sheer number of mail ballot requests will make this a nightmare for him).

[skbl17]

My estimate was very approximate and based on file sizes for each county, but Ryan Anderson (the guy who runs georgiavote.com) says:

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1306209379956535297

Hopefully his site will be functioning in the next couple of days (though he usually only did returned votes + the sheer number of mail ballot requests will make this a nightmare for him).

The site is up!

[Cassandra]

Does anyone know how long it takes to receive your absentee ballot? I requested mine the day I made the below post.

Very refreshing to see Georgia in the news for a positive (& I don't mean a positive COVID test).

We also got our new absentee ballot request site on line on Friday.  Very quick and easy to use!

Thanks for the link!
[/quote

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone know how long it takes to receive your absentee ballot? I requested mine the day I made the below post.

Very refreshing to see Georgia in the news for a positive (& I don't mean a positive COVID test).

We also got our new absentee ballot request site on line on Friday.  Very quick and easy to use!

Thanks for the link!
[/quote

They've just started mailing this week. Tuesday was the first day they could legally do so.

[Adam Griffin]

Does anyone know how long it takes to receive your absentee ballot? I requested mine the day I made the below post.

Very refreshing to see Georgia in the news for a positive (& I don't mean a positive COVID test).

We also got our new absentee ballot request site on line on Friday.  Very quick and easy to use!

Thanks for the link!

I'm not sure if it applies to applications submitted by mail and/or directly to the county election boards, but everybody who used the state's website and applied by Tuesday will have their ballots sent out by the SoS starting today (Friday, 9/18). Not sure if they have the bandwidth to send out all requested ballots on the same day (especially if they're handling all pre-9/16 requests regardless of method), but it's definitely possible you'll have it by early next week.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Checked the absentee file and our ballots (requested via the portal on 8/28) were mailed out yesterday.

[Adam Griffin]

For those who are curious:

Similar to Crumpets' map for NC, except this one is for GA (two color schemes):

VBM Requests as of 9/19, % of Total 2018 Vote:
Abrams Counties: 33.68% (726462/2156818)
Georgia, Overall: 29.89%
Kemp Counties: 25.32% (453819/1792128)

 

38 votes cast thus far in Georgia.

White 21
Black 13
Other 3

Male 21
Female 14

Voted in 2016: 21
Didn't Vote: 16


For ballot requests, here are the altered racial figures (that attempt to account for & redistribute the large "other" contingency) for those who voted in '16 and those who did not.

Race	2016 Voters	Non-16 Voters	Total VBM
White	62%	51%	59%
Black	32%	37%	33%
Lat/Asn	6%	12%	8%

[StateBoiler]

Democrats trying to replace their candidate for GA-14.

http://ballot-access.org/2020/09/19/georgia-democratic-nominee-for-u-s-house-in-georgia-says-he-cant-continue-to-run-because-he-is-moving-to-another-state/#comments

Earlier this month, Kevin Van Ausdal, the Democratic nominee for U.S. House, 14th district of Georgia, said that he is getting a divorce, must leave his home, and is unable to afford a new residence in Georgia. Therefore, he is moving to Indiana to live with his parents. See this story.

The author of the story, and Van Ausdal, both assume that he cannot continue to run. However, the U.S. Constitution does not require a candidate for Congress to live in the state during the campaign. Residence in the state is only required on election day. Article One, section two, says, “No person shall be a Representative who shall not have attained the age of 25 years, and been seven years a Citizen of the United States, and who shall not, when elected, be an inhabitant of that State in which he shall be chosen.”

The article makes it seem as though that the Democratic Party wants the legal ability to replace him.

Comment:

It sounds like he was pushed. Until the Republican primary, he was a no hope candidate. Suddenly the Democrats thought they had a chance, and probably started pushing money into the campaign and brought in a professional campaign manager. They discovered flaws in their candidate and tried to replace him.

The Atlanta Journal Constitution quotes his principle campaign consultant as saying, “we told him there’s no wiggle room here” before claiming to be saddened. It also said the Democratic Party of Georgia immediately called on the SOS to disqualify Van Ausdal.

[Adam Griffin]

I could speak a lot on what happened in GA-14 since I'm the Democratic Chair of the second-largest county in the district (doesn't really matter now: Kevin remains on the ballot, but needless to say that he wasn't "pushed out" or bullied into his decision), but instead of being a big ol' leaker, I am going to speak about what I've seen in my mailbox in the past 3 days!

Can't blame the Georgia Republican Party for trying (actually this is the second mailer I've received from them; threw the first away). The Democratic Party of Georgia, however, is just trying to raise unreasonable sums of money from me per usual. I'm obviously not a normal voter, but I wonder if this is what/all that people in non-urban environs in GA are seeing?

(I should also point out that I've been getting at least 4 of these boilerplate DPG donation pitches by mail each year for the past 3-4 years asking me for $375-750, so I'm not even sure this can be counted as Election Year mail)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone have thoughts on the amendments and referendum on the ballot this year?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia voters wondering if their absentee ballots will be counted can now receive text messages, emails or phone calls to track their ballot’s progress.

A service called BallotTrax launched Friday to allow voters to sign up for alerts when their absentee ballots are issued, received and accepted.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/absentee-ballot-tracking-service-launched-for-georgia-voters/DIY2BMWKHZBR3N2GKYX4P4O2LU/

BallotTrax is at https://georgia.ballottrax.net/.  I've signed up for email updates.