Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

Will Abrams go for it?

I would love to see it. She could essentially serve as a placeholder for 2 years before running for Gov, giving the district a chance to actually have a primary/pick a candidate of their choosing in 2022 before the seat is locked up for the next 20-40 years. Without a placeholder candidate being selected, whomever gets chosen on Monday will hold this seat for as long as they want.

[Lognog]

Will Abrams go for it?

I would love to see it. She could essentially serve as a placeholder for 2 years before running for Gov, giving the district a chance to actually have a primary/pick a candidate of their choosing in 2022 before the seat is locked up for the next 20-40 years. Without a placeholder candidate being selected, whomever gets chosen on Monday will hold this seat for as long as they want.

considering she turned down a senate run I would be surprised if she took it

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Will Abrams go for it?

I would love to see it. She could essentially serve as a placeholder for 2 years before running for Gov, giving the district a chance to actually have a primary/pick a candidate of their choosing in 2022 before the seat is locked up for the next 20-40 years. Without a placeholder candidate being selected, whomever gets chosen on Monday will hold this seat for as long as they want.

considering she turned down a senate run I would be surprised if she took it

We'll know shortly if she applies

[Adam Griffin]

I don't know if she will, but if Nikema Williams applies, don't be surprised if she is selected (she almost certainly lives in GA-5?). DPG Chair, State Senator and married to a man who was a congressional aide and deputy campaign manager for Lewis. Given how party selections in general tend to go, she checks all the boxes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Will Abrams go for it?

I would love to see it. She could essentially serve as a placeholder for 2 years before running for Gov, giving the district a chance to actually have a primary/pick a candidate of their choosing in 2022 before the seat is locked up for the next 20-40 years. Without a placeholder candidate being selected, whomever gets chosen on Monday will hold this seat for as long as they want.

considering she turned down a senate run I would be surprised if she took it

We'll know shortly if she applies

It won't be Abrams; she's on the committee selecting finalists from the applicants.  The committee also included Keisha Lance Bottoms and Jason Carter.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/as-they-mourn-lewis-georgia-democrats-must-quickly-decide-who-will-succeed-him/EF7O5UNBVFFOFBMDXWRTBBXL3E/

[Roronoa D. Law]

The problem with Nekima Williams is that she is technically already on the ballot in November.

I also don't feel it's wise for Abrams to take the seat simply for resume purposes. It would just be a liability for her if she had to take difficult votes and would create fodder for Kemp and his allies. I think she best going around the state energizing and registering people to vote. That way she won't be labeled as a Washington insider and would instead be more in tune with the lives of everyday Georgians.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I don't know if she will, but if Nikema Williams applies, don't be surprised if she is selected (she almost certainly lives in GA-5?). DPG Chair, State Senator and married to a man who was a congressional aide and deputy campaign manager for Lewis. Given how party selections in general tend to go, she checks all the boxes.

She lives in GA-05 and it’s going to be her. Someone told me they have been on the phones trying to talk folks like Michelle Nunn out of applying.

It’s no coincidence that the obvious heavy hitters like Abrams, Bottoms, and Carter are on the nominating committee to help make the case that Williams is the most logical and qualified applicant.

[Continential]

I don't know if she will, but if Nikema Williams applies, don't be surprised if she is selected (she almost certainly lives in GA-5?). DPG Chair, State Senator and married to a man who was a congressional aide and deputy campaign manager for Lewis. Given how party selections in general tend to go, she checks all the boxes.

She lives in GA-05 and it’s going to be her. Someone told me they have been on the phones trying to talk folks like Michelle Nunn out of applying.

It’s no coincidence that the obvious heavy hitters like Abrams, Bottoms, and Carter are on the nominating committee to help make the case that Williams is the most logical and qualified applicant.

Nunn is white and a daughter of a Senator, so somebody could run against Nunn by attacking her for being privileged and not representative of the district as the district is around 60% black.

[skbl17]

As previously mentioned in this thread, the state won't mail absentee ballot applications (instead setting up a website for the purpose,) but at least one metro Atlanta county wants to step in and do the same for its voters.

Cobb County's Board of Elections voted unanimously to request money from the county commission to mail all active registered voters (including yours truly) an absentee ballot application for the November general election. BoE director Janine Eveler hopes that the board of commissioners will approve the request at the August 11 board meeting.

[GAProgressive]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1291763540228018178?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%...

[DINGO Joe]

Did buttmunch Raffensperger ever put up a page with both parts of the presidential primary vote combined?  I can just find the separate counts still.

[Lognog]

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1291763540228018178?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%...

Horrible, also finally we can get these other dems out of the race

[QAnonKelly]

I genuinely don't know if Kemp is just incompetent or outwardly malicious and honestly I don't know which is worse.

Does he want to wreck the state as it rapidly slips out of his fingers so Ds will have to come in and clean up his messes?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I genuinely don't know if Kemp is just incompetent or outwardly malicious and honestly I don't know which is worse.

Does he want to wreck the state as it rapidly slips out of his fingers so Ds will have to come in and clean up his messes?

Could be an attitude of "I can do anything I want because I'm gonna rig the 2020 & 2022 elections to my favor anyway"

[skbl17]

As previously mentioned in this thread, the state won't mail absentee ballot applications (instead setting up a website for the purpose,) but at least one metro Atlanta county wants to step in and do the same for its voters.

Cobb County's Board of Elections voted unanimously to request money from the county commission to mail all active registered voters (including yours truly) an absentee ballot application for the November general election. BoE director Janine Eveler hopes that the board of commissioners will approve the request at the August 11 board meeting.

Updates:

- Cobb County: The proposal to fund the election board's plan to mail absentee ballot applications to active voters was not taken up at yesterday's BoC meeting.

By the way, DeKalb County has a similar plan to send absentee ballot applications, but that plan is being opposed by Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who believes the move to send applications to both active and inactive voters would leave the system exposed to fraud. He's asking the board to reconsider their plan.

- Statewide: The State Elections Board unanimously approved the SoS's plan to set up an absentee ballot request website for voters to use. The website is scheduled to go live by the end of August.

Also, it appears as if counties will be allowed to start opening absentee ballots two weeks before election day, instead of the one week currently allowed. This will not change the tabulation process, which cannot start until after polls close on Election Day itself.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Also, it appears as if counties will be allowed to start opening absentee ballots two weeks before election day, instead of the one week currently allowed. This will not change the tabulation process, which cannot start until after polls close on Election Day itself.

I'm confused. Opening the ballots to do what? If they can't tabulate votes, what are they doing with them?

[Adam Griffin]

Also, it appears as if counties will be allowed to start opening absentee ballots two weeks before election day, instead of the one week currently allowed. This will not change the tabulation process, which cannot start until after polls close on Election Day itself.

I'm confused. Opening the ballots to do what? If they can't tabulate votes, what are they doing with them?

I assume tabulation in this case means publishing vote totals or reporting them to SoS via their system prior to 7 PM on Election Day. They'll still likely have a running tally of counts for each race after each day's counting internally, though.

Personally, I'm more interested in how the concept of multi-day "sequestration" is going to work: in most counties (including my own, at least prior to the 2020 primary), a county's mail ballots could be counted in one day. Election workers and members from both parties would be sequestered in a room for the opening of mail ballots, with at least 2 people verifying the choices of each individual ballot. Nobody got to leave or use communications devices until all ballots were counted. I'm sure this isn't how it's worked in places like Fulton and Gwinnett where mail counting has taken days in most recent elections, but I do want to know how each day's counts are secured and how ballots are going to be handled by each county.

[Continential]

How did Thurbert Baker win three elections for AG in Georgia in the 2000s and one in 1998?

How would Baker do in the 2022 Georgia AG election if he ran?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Also, it appears as if counties will be allowed to start opening absentee ballots two weeks before election day, instead of the one week currently allowed. This will not change the tabulation process, which cannot start until after polls close on Election Day itself.

I'm confused. Opening the ballots to do what? If they can't tabulate votes, what are they doing with them?

I assume tabulation in this case means publishing vote totals or reporting them to SoS via their system prior to 7 PM on Election Day. They'll still likely have a running tally of counts for each race after each day's counting internally, though.

You're right. Our county BOE representative explained it to me today.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Do we have access to how many ballots have been requested for November and the racial make up of said group?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gwinnett Democrats to spend $175,000 to increase voting in November election

[Adam Griffin]

Do we have access to how many ballots have been requested for November and the racial make up of said group?

The SoS doesn't have a spreadsheet up yet for ballots requested. I also checked within VAN and it appears the only early vote/ballot request data they have is for the Aug 11 primary and prior, so I'm assuming this data isn't being reported at all yet by SoS.

Counties have had rather broader latitude with when they begin mailing ballots, but most have done so in September (my county has generally started around 9/20). Given the two week boost for counties to start counting mail ballots, they may very well start mailing earlier than usual. There should be a public spreadsheet available here before any of this begins, but it won't have racial data in it. That data as far as I know is only available by corroborating ballot requests with VAN or a comparable voter file management solution, or if SoS reports those statewide figures themselves (I don't imagine SoS releasing county-by-county race breakdowns pre-election).

[GeorgiaModerate]

The absentee ballot request site is up!  https://ballotrequest.sos.ga.gov/

I just requested mine - very quick and easy.  I got an email confirmation that it was received and also a PDF acknolwedgement that I could print out.

[Adam Griffin]

A few years back, I made this similar graph which at the time had projections for 2016-2024. Those projections were quite optimistic (in large part because there was heavy weight on the Obama years in terms of demographic shifts, and also because black voters specifically were better categorized as black by SoS prior to 2015 or so).

Nevertheless, I have updated and revised, adding the most recent two elections and including the 2017 1-Year ACS & 2019 Census as well.

For all previous elections/years, Census data and race breakdowns via SoS are used. Much like the SoS pivoted from an all-encompassing "Other" category in 2004 that made tracking specific non-white, non-black groups difficult until then, new registrants (i.e. disproportionately non-white registrants) for the past 5 years or so have been disproportionately categorized as "other" or "unknown". This plays a major role in why the black share of the electorate is smaller in 2016 & 2018 than in 2012 & 2014 (though not 100% of the cause) and why "other" jumps over the same period. This is also why the 2020-24 projections may seem "gentler" than some might expect.

Full-sized image

[Dr. Arch]

A few years back, I made this similar graph which at the time had projections for 2016-2024. Those projections were quite optimistic (in large part because there was heavy weight on the Obama years in terms of demographic shifts, and also because black voters specifically were better categorized as black by SoS prior to 2015 or so).

Nevertheless, I have updated and revised, adding the most recent two elections and including the 2017 1-Year ACS & 2019 Census as well.

For all previous elections/years, Census data and race breakdowns via SoS are used. Much like the SoS pivoted from an all-encompassing "Other" category in 2004 that made tracking specific non-white, non-black groups difficult until then, new registrants (i.e. disproportionately non-white registrants) for the past 5 years or so have been disproportionately categorized as "other" or "unknown". This plays a major role in why the black share of the electorate is smaller in 2016 & 2018 than in 2012 & 2014 (though not 100% of the cause) and why "other" jumps over the same period. This is also why the 2020-24 projections may seem "gentler" than some might expect.

Full-sized image

What would 2020 look like with these breakdown differentials vis-à-vis 2018 GA Gov?