2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[S019]

Chris Smith is drawn out of his district.

Do you have 2016 data on this map? This seems like one of the more realistic 11-1 maps that I've seen, though it does some weird things with the Northeast NJ districts. The fact that politicians are on the NJ commission means that incumbent concerns will matter almost as much as a legislative map, so substantially changing the Northeast NJ seats like that probably won't fly, and also you probably want to get 2 out of 3 of the Northwest NJ seats to Clinton+10 or more, so that it would probably survive even a bad year, especially given Northern New Jersey isn't really known for being inelastic, if you're going to go for 10-2/11-1.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b843cff-03c1-4dec-a053-1abe8bf13f05

Here's the link, pls tell me if it doesnt work. It should be set to 2016

So, after a quick look, I see several issues here, the first is in that trying to configure the northern seats in such a way, where you can get three seats, Pallone's seat has moved from Clinton+16 to Clinton+9, definitely winnable in a good year for the GOP. Also, the northern NJ seat, which is I guess is Gottheimer, but incumbent succession gets weird on this map for reasons I'll mention later, is around Clinton+8.5, which while better than the current seat is not wave proof, this could also fall in a bad year for the Democrats. So in a bad year for the Democrats, this map could once again end up as 6-6. The elimination of the Hispanic access seat is something I don't really see happening, and especially not the way it is here. Sires is from Hudson County, what seems to be the successor to his seat has left Hudson County entirely and bizarrely grabs blue chunks of Middlesex and has an awkward arm into Somerset, which includes Malinowski's home in southern Somerset. Sires, on the other hand has been drawn into what seems to be the successor to Pascrell's seat, and Pascrell's home of Paterson has been thrown into what seems to be Sherrill's successor seat. There seems to be a lot of musical chairs in the north, that along with the fact that there are not at least 8 secure seats (every Dem seat except 3 and if you want to try to hold all three, then one of 5/7/11, can and should be made secure). I honestly think this map gets at the heart of the issue of preserving all three northern seats, the incumbents do not live in the most convenient of places and reshaping the map to try to shore up all three creates major issues elsewhere.

[CookieDamage]

Chris Smith is drawn out of his district.

Do you have 2016 data on this map? This seems like one of the more realistic 11-1 maps that I've seen, though it does some weird things with the Northeast NJ districts. The fact that politicians are on the NJ commission means that incumbent concerns will matter almost as much as a legislative map, so substantially changing the Northeast NJ seats like that probably won't fly, and also you probably want to get 2 out of 3 of the Northwest NJ seats to Clinton+10 or more, so that it would probably survive even a bad year, especially given Northern New Jersey isn't really known for being inelastic, if you're going to go for 10-2/11-1.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b843cff-03c1-4dec-a053-1abe8bf13f05

Here's the link, pls tell me if it doesnt work. It should be set to 2016

So, after a quick look, I see several issues here, the first is in that trying to configure the northern seats in such a way, where you can get three seats, Pallone's seat has moved from Clinton+16 to Clinton+9, definitely winnable in a good year for the GOP. Also, the northern NJ seat, which is I guess is Gottheimer, but incumbent succession gets weird on this map for reasons I'll mention later, is around Clinton+8.5, which while better than the current seat is not wave proof, this could also fall in a bad year for the Democrats. So in a bad year for the Democrats, this map could once again end up as 6-6. The elimination of the Hispanic access seat is something I don't really see happening, and especially not the way it is here. Sires is from Hudson County, what seems to be the successor to his seat has left Hudson County entirely and bizarrely grabs blue chunks of Middlesex and has an awkward arm into Somerset, which includes Malinowski's home in southern Somerset. Sires, on the other hand has been drawn into what seems to be the successor to Pascrell's seat, and Pascrell's home of Paterson has been thrown into what seems to be Sherrill's successor seat. There seems to be a lot of musical chairs in the north, that along with the fact that there are not at least 8 secure seats (every Dem seat except 3 and if you want to try to hold all three, then one of 5/7/11, can and should be made secure). I honestly think this map gets at the heart of the issue of preserving all three northern seats, the incumbents do not live in the most convenient of places and reshaping the map to try to shore up all three creates major issues elsewhere.

Yeah, the one thing I don't like is how I made once safe seats less safe. I might remake a NJ map but keep a North Jersey seat very very tilt R.

[CookieDamage]

Here's the link:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c2c3b23c-435c-4240-8811-26fa056fe0be

11-1 D-R set up.

South Jersey:

I've made Van Drew's district more Dem leaning, but it will still be a competitive seat and will drift R in the future. However, this plan will give Dems a shot at maintaining their majority at least for the next few years.

The Camden district extends into Ocean County and some GOP turf, but I believe it's still a solidly Dem and wave-proof district.

Kim's district eats into Mercer County Dem areas as well as southwestern Burlington areas that once belonged to NJ-1, thus it is a slightly Dem leaning district.

Central (yes it exists):

Smith is drawn out of his district but gets a much safer seat and represents the only safe GOP district.

BWC's district is largely unchanged and retains its solid D rating. The addition of New Brunswick makes this even safer.

Pallone loses New Brunswick but I made up for this by giving him places like Linden and Rahway. It remains a likely/safe D district almost exactly like the old district.

Suburban North:

I gave Malinowksi more of southern Middlesex and some of western Essex and it ended up making his district more Dem friendly.

I gave Sherrill all of Montclair, as well as more of northern Essex. She also received Dover. This, plus the fact that Morris is continuing to become more Dem means that this seat will remain lean/likely D.

Gottheimer's district is largely unchanged.

Urban North:

Pascrell's district incorporates more GOP suburbs/exurbs west of Paterson as well as losing Clifton. However, it retains Dem areas in Passaic as well as places like Fort Lee in Bergen. All in all it becomes a few points more GOP but I don't see this seat as ever falling to the GOP.

Payne's district is the most Dem district in the state (something like ~85% DEM) as well as being a majority Black district.

Sires' district is also extremely Dem and diverse. While the voting population is plurality white, the entire population is plurality Hispanic.


Great year for Dems

11-1 Dem wave, with Van Drew going down by 1-2%.

Good year for Dems

10-2, with Van Drew holding on.

A wash

10-2 or 9-3 Dem, with Van Drew holding on and maybe Sherrill or Kim barely losing.

Decent year for GOP

9-3 or 8-4 Dem, with Van Drew holding on and the GOP beating Sherrill, Kim, and/or Gottheimer.

Good year for GOP

7-5 Dem, with Van Drew holding on and the GOP beating all of Sherrill, Kim, and Gottheimer.

[CookieDamage]

Did a state level redistricting



https://davesredistricting.org/join/29954438-a93a-49a6-9bed-7665bc2caa95

[Nyvin]

There's a showdown in the NJ State Supreme Court over who will be the tiebreaker.  Wallace is the D and Corodemus is the R more or less.   The "tiebreaker" in the NJ commission is basically a dictator for NJ redistricting.  All 7 members of the State Supreme Court must vote one or the other, no abstentions.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/n-j-supreme-court-will-pick-tiebreaker-on-congressional-redistricting/

[Tintrlvr]

There's a showdown in the NJ State Supreme Court over who will be the tiebreaker.  Wallace is the D and Corodemus is the R more or less.   The "tiebreaker" in the NJ commission is basically a dictator for NJ redistricting.  All 7 members of the State Supreme Court must vote one or the other, no abstentions.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/n-j-supreme-court-will-pick-tiebreaker-on-congressional-redistricting/

For what it's worth, the NJ Supreme Court is 4R-3D by appointments, although it's generally a quite apolitical institution and one of the R appointees was appointed by Whitman (no longer a Republican), was reappointed later by Corzine, is a registered Independent and is retiring next month so certainly has a good chance of siding with the Democrats.

[Torie]

Based on the content of the article below, I think the Pubs have the high ground here (as to the odds of their choice being picked), and the judge retiring is not retiring prior to the August 10, 2021 SCONJ "election" day for them to pick one or the other of the two choices presented to them.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/who-will-the-supreme-court-pick-as-the-congressional-redistricting-tiebreaker-15-questions-and-answers-about-what-comes-next/

[Torie]

Here is my submission to the NJ commission for a CD map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7224b3db-0c0f-4182-a964-204342d33d4e

[Mr.Phips]

Here is my submission to the NJ commission for a CD map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7224b3db-0c0f-4182-a964-204342d33d4e

Looks pretty reasonable.  What are the 2020 presidential numbers in Pallone’s district?

[Torie]

I don't know. Clinton won the CD as I drew it by a 2.5% margin, and Menendez in 2018 won it by 1%. I suspect Biden won it by a 5%-7% margin. This particular piece of real estate both swung and trended Dem in the 2020 POTUS election by a non negligible amount.

In this endeavor, I took some cognizance of existing lines, and thus kept Elizabeth City in the Hudson County based CD (it is the Hispanic CD in the state, not that the VRA demands it here, but because it is still an important consideration), and also was careful not to mess too much with the Newark based black CD. Some of the convoluted  lines where they exist in the existing map must be inside baseball, because I don't understand the rationale that much, given the Pubs knew that it was either their map or the Dem's map, which one would assume would contain their more "predatory" instincts.

Myself, I did not check the division of the partisan spoils until finished, although I had a general idea of the landscape, but certainly not on a town by town basis, but did check when done just to see if the map had some reasonable partisan balance. I also used the new city feature a lot on the DRA, to minimize municipal splits. That is a great feature on the DRA. It now drives my maps, almost as much as county lines do. In the real world, it has driven maps a lot as well, but not those who drew them with the DRA because it was too difficult and time consuming in many cases.

[Brittain33]

How many people live in the purple bit of western Monmouth County? I would give that to the Ocean County district and rotate all the other south Jersey districts to compensate. That would make NJ-2 more Republican by bringing some of the Gloucester County suburbs into the Camden district. I don’t think it’s an issue to split southern Ocean County.

[cvparty]

Here is my submission to the NJ commission for a CD map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7224b3db-0c0f-4182-a964-204342d33d4e

I know you’re going for minimal county splits, but your map splits the New Brunswick area hard between three congressional districts, and separates North Plainfield from Plainfield. Morris also isn’t really connected to Bergen as much as it is to west Essex or Union

This is minor but I would adjust the splits of Gloucester and Burlington to make the CD1 portions of them more Philly-centric; I would swap Monroe for West Deptford and stay west of Rancocas Creek in Burlington, swapping Delanco for Mount Laurel. It’s also worth noting your CD7 voted for Biden by virtue of keeping Somerset whole

[Torie]

How many people live in the purple bit of western Monmouth County? I would give that to the Ocean County district and rotate all the other south Jersey districts to compensate. That would make NJ-2 more Republican by bringing some of the Gloucester County suburbs into the Camden district. I don’t think it’s an issue to split southern Ocean County.

34,000.

[Torie]

Here is my submission to the NJ commission for a CD map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7224b3db-0c0f-4182-a964-204342d33d4e

I know you’re going for minimal county splits, but your map splits the New Brunswick area hard between three congressional districts, and separates North Plainfield from Plainfield. Morris also isn’t really connected to Bergen as much as it is to west Essex or Union

This is minor but I would adjust the splits of Gloucester and Burlington to make the CD1 portions of them more Philly-centric; I would swap Monroe for West Deptford and stay west of Rancocas Creek in Burlington, swapping Delanco for Mount Laurel. It’s also worth noting your CD7 voted for Biden by virtue of keeping Somerset whole

Thank you for your comments. Wazes to get us from south central Hoboken to the I-87 on the NY state line has taken on all kinds of routes to contend with the traffic, so I have come to know the real estate in the Morris, Passaic, Essex and Bergen areas rather intimately. And for some reason I often end up on the streets of Paramus. I have become quite bored with Paramus. The most loathsome of all is NJ-17 to Mahwah, with its crazed ugly somewhat dangerous hybrid of partial access and limited access design. Whomever put that all together must have been on hard mentally disabling drugs.

The state lines are right where they "should be" topographically however. The mountains start at the NY state line with NJ (ignoring Rockland) as the Appalachian Mountains hop the Hudson River, and NY is separated from Mass and much of CT right at the crest of the Taconic Mountains, at least what is left of them after a billion years of erosion or whatever (it's one of the oldest ranges around).

[Devils30]

The state Supreme Court is picking the tiebreaker and court is currently 3-3-1.

[Tintrlvr]

How many people live in the purple bit of western Monmouth County? I would give that to the Ocean County district and rotate all the other south Jersey districts to compensate. That would make NJ-2 more Republican by bringing some of the Gloucester County suburbs into the Camden district. I don’t think it’s an issue to split southern Ocean County.

Personally I think this is a bad decision. The area between Ocean and Atlantic Counties is quite barren and empty and forms a natural geographic barrier that ideally should not be crossed (thus so few people living in that southern part of Burlington County). However, the western edge of Monmouth County is very separate from the rest of Monmouth County and more oriented towards Trenton than the beach, so is a very good place to split Monmouth. In other words, you're exchanging a good split for a bad one.

[Brittain33]

How many people live in the purple bit of western Monmouth County? I would give that to the Ocean County district and rotate all the other south Jersey districts to compensate. That would make NJ-2 more Republican by bringing some of the Gloucester County suburbs into the Camden district. I don’t think it’s an issue to split southern Ocean County.

Personally I think this is a bad decision. The area between Ocean and Atlantic Counties is quite barren and empty and forms a natural geographic barrier that ideally should not be crossed (thus so few people living in that southern part of Burlington County). However, the western edge of Monmouth County is very separate from the rest of Monmouth County and more oriented towards Trenton than the beach, so is a very good place to split Monmouth. In other words, you're exchanging a good split for a bad one.

I was thinking mainly of how to resolve the split in the Philly suburbs in Gloucester County.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Which tiebreaker do y'all think the state supreme court will choose?

[S019]

Which tiebreaker do y'all think the state supreme court will choose?

Probably the Republican, but it won't matter much, I believe at this point, the choice is between 9-3 D and 8-4 D, drawing 2 R seats in the north would be a dummymander probably, I drew two on DRA and they were like Trump+5 and Trump+8 in 2016, given Biden's gains in North Jersey, I wouldn't be surprised if both flipped in 2020. Andy Kim's seat really seems like all that is left to be decided, unless either the Republicans or the Democrats are really dumb.

[Nyvin]

Important to note that, by tradition, whichever side "loses" the congressional map decision is generally given the "win" on the legislative map decision.   That's what happened in both 2001 and 2011.

R's got their congressional map in both 2001 and 2011.  I think in 2001 it was probably overall a good deal for D's, but in 2011 the D's kinda got screwed since their legislative majorities were secure anyway.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Important to note that, by tradition, whichever side "loses" the congressional map decision is generally given the "win" on the legislative map decision.   That's what happened in both 2001 and 2011.

R's got their congressional map in both 2001 and 2011.  I think in 2001 it was probably overall a good deal for D's, but in 2011 the D's kinda got screwed since their legislative majorities were secure anyway.

Frankly I think whichever side gets their congressional map is who will ultimately be the winner. Just 2 or 3 extra seats in the House in such a polarized environment full of close elections is really valueable, especially since anything other than an extreme R Gerry (which presumably wouldn’t be chosen) isn’t going to put Dems state legislative majorities on the line. Ig the one thing that could be important in the state legislative maps could be the Dem map will prolly offer a more viable path to a supermajority, but considering NJ has and will likely continue to have liberal Dem govs, it doesn’t matter too much.

[Devils30]

Important to note that, by tradition, whichever side "loses" the congressional map decision is generally given the "win" on the legislative map decision.   That's what happened in both 2001 and 2011.

R's got their congressional map in both 2001 and 2011.  I think in 2001 it was probably overall a good deal for D's, but in 2011 the D's kinda got screwed since their legislative majorities were secure anyway.

Frankly I think whichever side gets their congressional map is who will ultimately be the winner. Just 2 or 3 extra seats in the House in such a polarized environment full of close elections is really valueable, especially since anything other than an extreme R Gerry (which presumably wouldn’t be chosen) isn’t going to put Dems state legislative majorities on the line. Ig the one thing that could be important in the state legislative maps could be the Dem map will prolly offer a more viable path to a supermajority, but considering NJ has and will likely continue to have liberal Dem govs, it doesn’t matter too much.

If the Dems win the tiebreaker with the Supreme Court it's easy to see Sherrill taking in parts of NJ-8,9 and Gottheimer losing Warren county, maybe part of Sussex. But the new NJ-7 could take Warren, Hunterdon and ditch swingy parts of Morris, north Somerset and take in Mercer, part of Middlesex and become a Biden +18 seat.

Another way Dems could get a 10-2 is packing NJ-7 in NW NJ but making NJ-4 an ultra red Ocean/Monmouth based seat and giving Trenton to Kim in NJ-3. Cracking Camden county could also screw Van Drew.

[Mr.Phips]

Important to note that, by tradition, whichever side "loses" the congressional map decision is generally given the "win" on the legislative map decision.   That's what happened in both 2001 and 2011.

R's got their congressional map in both 2001 and 2011.  I think in 2001 it was probably overall a good deal for D's, but in 2011 the D's kinda got screwed since their legislative majorities were secure anyway.

Frankly I think whichever side gets their congressional map is who will ultimately be the winner. Just 2 or 3 extra seats in the House in such a polarized environment full of close elections is really valueable, especially since anything other than an extreme R Gerry (which presumably wouldn’t be chosen) isn’t going to put Dems state legislative majorities on the line. Ig the one thing that could be important in the state legislative maps could be the Dem map will prolly offer a more viable path to a supermajority, but considering NJ has and will likely continue to have liberal Dem govs, it doesn’t matter too much.

Any chance that Dems could get Kean’s vote for a 9-3 map that turns NJ-07 into a tailor made Trump district for him?

[Devils30]

Important to note that, by tradition, whichever side "loses" the congressional map decision is generally given the "win" on the legislative map decision.   That's what happened in both 2001 and 2011.

R's got their congressional map in both 2001 and 2011.  I think in 2001 it was probably overall a good deal for D's, but in 2011 the D's kinda got screwed since their legislative majorities were secure anyway.

Frankly I think whichever side gets their congressional map is who will ultimately be the winner. Just 2 or 3 extra seats in the House in such a polarized environment full of close elections is really valueable, especially since anything other than an extreme R Gerry (which presumably wouldn’t be chosen) isn’t going to put Dems state legislative majorities on the line. Ig the one thing that could be important in the state legislative maps could be the Dem map will prolly offer a more viable path to a supermajority, but considering NJ has and will likely continue to have liberal Dem govs, it doesn’t matter too much.

Any chance that Dems could get Kean’s vote for a 9-3 map that turns NJ-07 into a tailor made Trump district for him?

If the court picks the Dem as tiebreaker the Dems aren't giving up anything. I would expect 5,11 to get a few points bluer and 7 to get towns on the edges to make it Biden +15 or so. I think the Dems would have agreed on a tiebreaker if they wanted to trade 5,11,3 for 7 but are hoping they can keep all 4.

[Nyvin]

Important to note that, by tradition, whichever side "loses" the congressional map decision is generally given the "win" on the legislative map decision.   That's what happened in both 2001 and 2011.

R's got their congressional map in both 2001 and 2011.  I think in 2001 it was probably overall a good deal for D's, but in 2011 the D's kinda got screwed since their legislative majorities were secure anyway.

Frankly I think whichever side gets their congressional map is who will ultimately be the winner. Just 2 or 3 extra seats in the House in such a polarized environment full of close elections is really valueable, especially since anything other than an extreme R Gerry (which presumably wouldn’t be chosen) isn’t going to put Dems state legislative majorities on the line. Ig the one thing that could be important in the state legislative maps could be the Dem map will prolly offer a more viable path to a supermajority, but considering NJ has and will likely continue to have liberal Dem govs, it doesn’t matter too much.

Any chance that Dems could get Kean’s vote for a 9-3 map that turns NJ-07 into a tailor made Trump district for him?

If the court picks the Dem as tiebreaker the Dems aren't giving up anything. I would expect 5,11 to get a few points bluer and 7 to get towns on the edges to make it Biden +15 or so. I think the Dems would have agreed on a tiebreaker if they wanted to trade 5,11,3 for 7 but are hoping they can keep all 4.

This is mostly likely the reason for sending it to the State Supreme Court.   Probably the only thing either party really cares about is the Congressional map for obvious reasons. 

The NJ Dems probably want to at least try to get everything and if they lose they really don't lose all that much anyway.

The two outcomes I see are 9-3 or 10-2.   8-3-1 would be best case scenario for Republicans, but probably isn't happening.