🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Actually, there is one thing to say: no change for the SPD from 2017 is a bit surprising but I suppose it makes sense for the swing, if it's happening, to be most pronounced in the north and east and least pronounced in the south.

[Hnv1]

GMS poll of Bavaria (changes from last election):

CSU 29 (-10)
Green 18 (+8)
SPD 15 (=)
FDP 13 (+3)
AfD 10 (-2)
FW 6 (+3)
SED 3 (-3)
Others 6 (+1)

I mean, what can you even say?

Free voters will get seats in the Bundestag with breaking 5% there or is it 5% on the federal level.

What is even their appeal between the CSU and AfD?

[Хahar 🤔]

Actually, there is one thing to say: no change for the SPD from 2017 is a bit surprising but I suppose it makes sense for the swing, if it's happening, to be most pronounced in the north and east and least pronounced in the south.

If these numbers hold, the Greens would be ahead of the SPD in Bavaria and (I imagine) in BW and I'm not sure if they would be anywhere else. Surely that would produce some good analysis on the inherent differences between the High German and the Low German.

Free voters will get seats in the Bundestag with breaking 5% there or is it 5% on the federal level.

The threshold is calculated at the federal level.

[Yeahsayyeah]

GMS poll of Bavaria (changes from last election):

CSU 29 (-10)
Green 18 (+8)
SPD 15 (=)
FDP 13 (+3)
AfD 10 (-2)
FW 6 (+3)
SED 3 (-3)
Others 6 (+1)

I mean, what can you even say?

Free voters will get seats in the Bundestag with breaking 5% there or is it 5% on the federal level.

What is even their appeal between the CSU and AfD?

They would have to win 5% nationwide, or get at least 3 constituency seats. The first still seems more likely than the other. Originally, their appeal in Bavaria was "centre-right, but not the CSU". I think that still holds. Additionaly, like the FDP, they try to walk the fine line between "the anti-covid measures are wrong and overblown in several aspects" and "the virus is a hoax" as the AfD has basically decided to dive into full denialism over time.

[Yeahsayyeah]

BTW, a result like that in Bavaria (CSU under 30 and SPD/Greens splitting the centre-left vote in half) really could explode the size of the Bundestag because of compensation seats, as CSU probably still would win most of the direct seats.

[President Johnson]

Ladies and Gentlemen, it looks like we're witnessing a fullscale (and well deserved) collapse of the CDU. Latest poll is at 19%. I repeat 19%. The Union is in full disarray. And looking at the poll from Bavaria, if remotely accurate, Sonnenkönig Söder will be exposed as a paper tiger rather than an unbeatable titan.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1435182704656539648

[WMS]

Ran across this:

Germany protests to Russia over pre-election cyberattacks

BERLIN (AP) — Germany has protested to Russia over attempts to steal data from lawmakers in what it suspects may have been preparation to spread disinformation before the upcoming German election, the Foreign Ministry in Berlin said Monday.

In mid-July, the head of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency said that since February his agency had seen activity focusing on phishing attempts on the private email accounts of federal and state lawmakers and their staff. But he said that very few of those attempts were successful, and in cases where they were successful it appeared little damage had been caused.

Germany’s concerns about Russian interference have extended to the activities of state-funded broadcaster RT, whose online-only German-language service has for years emphasized divisive issues such as migration and the restrictions imposed because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Curious what people, particularly Germans, think about it.

[Lechasseur]

Ran across this:

Germany protests to Russia over pre-election cyberattacks

BERLIN (AP) — Germany has protested to Russia over attempts to steal data from lawmakers in what it suspects may have been preparation to spread disinformation before the upcoming German election, the Foreign Ministry in Berlin said Monday.

In mid-July, the head of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency said that since February his agency had seen activity focusing on phishing attempts on the private email accounts of federal and state lawmakers and their staff. But he said that very few of those attempts were successful, and in cases where they were successful it appeared little damage had been caused.

Germany’s concerns about Russian interference have extended to the activities of state-funded broadcaster RT, whose online-only German-language service has for years emphasized divisive issues such as migration and the restrictions imposed because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Curious what people, particularly Germans, think about it.

Who would Russia prefer to see win the election between the CDU, the SPD and the Greens?

[DL]

Is it fair to say at this point that the only thing that stops Scholz from being the next chancellor is if (as they say in Louisiana) he is caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy

[Lechasseur]

Ladies and Gentlemen, it looks like we're witnessing a fullscale (and well deserved) collapse of the CDU. Latest poll is at 19%. I repeat 19%. The Union is in full disarray. And looking at the poll from Bavaria, if remotely accurate, Sonnenkönig Söder will be exposed as a paper tiger rather than an unbeatable titan.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1435182704656539648

How low do you think the CDU can still fall? And can the Union recover from this going forward, or do you think they're going to end up like Christian Democrats elsewhere who no longer have enough support to form a government?

And if the CDU does collapse long term, who or what would replace them? I mean, it's not like on the left where you had a couple of obvious alternatives.

And if the CDU doesn't collapse long term, what direction will they take? Will they become more conservative or more centrist?

[CumbrianLefty]

For the record, 19% is the lowest the "Union" have ever recorded in opinion polling.

(for the SPD, its 11% - not all that long ago either)

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Who would Russia prefer to see win the election between the CDU, the SPD and the Greens?

The Greens are the most hawkish on Russia, being strongly against Nord Stream 2 and for closer ties with the United States; while the CDU/CSU is the most dovish, supporting Merkel’s foreign policy of putting German commercial and economic interests above ideology. The SPD is somewhere in between.

BTW, a result like that in Bavaria (CSU under 30 and SPD/Greens splitting the centre-left vote in half) really could explode the size of the Bundestag because of compensation seats, as CSU probably still would win most of the direct seats.

Germany failed at building a “Thousand-year Reich”, so now they are aiming for a more achievable “Thousand-seat Bundestag”.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

How low do you think the CDU can still fall? And can the Union recover from this going forward, or do you think they're going to end up like Christian Democrats elsewhere who no longer have enough support to form a government?

And if the CDU does collapse long term, who or what would replace them? I mean, it's not like on the left where you had a couple of obvious alternatives.

You've given yourself the answer.
Some have indicated that the relative popularity of the FDP has something to do with voters with socially liberal and small-state-convictions--whom Merkel managed to win a fair share of--are deserting the CDU en masse.
I think that we're now (17-19%) very much at the bottom of the CDU's potential. The CDU has many traditional voters who will vote for them no matter what. In very rural catholic areas, especially in the west, the CDU is absolutely dominant. It is deeply ingrained in and intertwined with traditional areas of civic, communal life. These are the areas in which the president of the local sports club, the head of the voluntary fire brigade and the chairman of the local hiking club are all CDU members, and one of them happens to be the mayor. The CDU is carried by a strong structure of well-organized local chapters which cover most of Germany. We have, however, seen some movement there, as the Free Voters have established themselves as an alternative on the local level in these areas.[1] They have become a threat to the CDU or CSU in Bavaria's and Rhineland-Palatine's state politics already, and it will be interesting to see whether the Free Voters have any potential to mobilize their fairly strong local base to vote for them in higher elections.[2]

[1] Personal anecdote: This is precisely what happened in the village I grew up in. The CDU had dominated all local clubs until the brother of the mayor founded the local Free Voters chapter in the early 2000s. The two brothers regularity ran against each other in the mayoral election. The CDU always had the upper hand, but the Free Voters seriously put the CDU's dominance at risk.

[2] So far, they didn't. That has something to do with the fact that the Free Voters local chapters are only loosely organized and ideologically very diverse.

And if the CDU doesn't collapse long term, what direction will they take? Will they become more conservative or more centrist?

Really depends on who is able within the party to control the discourse. An important factor could be the size of the AfD's vote share. I think we're kind of over the political right's hegemony on the political discourse, but I can easily see Merz running for a third time. He might even win this time round.

[Mike88]

GMS poll:

Vote share %: (compared with the last poll)

25% SPD (+10)
23% CDU/CSU (-7)
17% Grüne (-1)
12% FDP (nc)
11% AfD (+1)
  6% Linke (-1)
  6% Others (-2)

Poll conducted between 1 and 6 September 2021. Polled 1,004 voters.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is there any plausible scenario the SPD can still blow this? Or a "last card" CDU can play? If early voting or VBM starts, I would think the clock is ticking?

I hope the polls don't change much any more and as far as I know European polls are more reliable than for US elections. For the CDU to come in 1st, the polls need to off by 5 pts on average as we speak. That's unlikely, isn't it?

[Lechasseur]

Who would Russia prefer to see win the election between the CDU, the SPD and the Greens?

The Greens are the most hawkish on Russia, being strongly against Nord Stream 2 and for closer ties with the United States; while the CDU/CSU is the most dovish, supporting Merkel’s foreign policy of putting German commercial and economic interests above ideology. The SPD is somewhere in between.

BTW, a result like that in Bavaria (CSU under 30 and SPD/Greens splitting the centre-left vote in half) really could explode the size of the Bundestag because of compensation seats, as CSU probably still would win most of the direct seats.

Germany failed at building a “Thousand-year Reich”, so now they are aiming for a more achievable “Thousand-seat Bundestag”.

Huh, quite the change.

Even as late as the 2000s I believe that the SPD was more friendly towards Russia than the CDU

[Lechasseur]

How low do you think the CDU can still fall? And can the Union recover from this going forward, or do you think they're going to end up like Christian Democrats elsewhere who no longer have enough support to form a government?

And if the CDU does collapse long term, who or what would replace them? I mean, it's not like on the left where you had a couple of obvious alternatives.

You've given yourself the answer.
Some have indicated that the relative popularity of the FDP has something to do with voters with socially liberal and small-state-convictions--whom Merkel managed to win a fair share of--are deserting the CDU en masse.
I think that we're now (17-19%) very much at the bottom of the CDU's potential. The CDU has many traditional voters who will vote for them no matter what. In very rural catholic areas, especially in the west, the CDU is absolutely dominant. It is deeply ingrained in and intertwined with traditional areas of civic, communal life. These are the areas in which the president of the local sports club, the head of the voluntary fire brigade and the chairman of the local hiking club are all CDU members, and one of them happens to be the mayor. The CDU is carried by a strong structure of well-organized local chapters which cover most of Germany. We have, however, seen some movement there, as the Free Voters have established themselves as an alternative on the local level in these areas.[1] They have become a threat to the CDU or CSU in Bavaria's and Rhineland-Palatine's state politics already, and it will be interesting to see whether the Free Voters have any potential to mobilize their fairly strong local base to vote for them in higher elections.[2]

[1] Personal anecdote: This is precisely what happened in the village I grew up in. The CDU had dominated all local clubs until the brother of the mayor founded the local Free Voters chapter in the early 2000s. The two brothers regularity ran against each other in the mayoral election. The CDU always had the upper hand, but the Free Voters seriously put the CDU's dominance at risk.

[2] So far, they didn't. That has something to do with the fact that the Free Voters local chapters are only loosely organized and ideologically very diverse.

And if the CDU doesn't collapse long term, what direction will they take? Will they become more conservative or more centrist?

Really depends on who is able within the party to control the discourse. An important factor could be the size of the AfD's vote share. I think we're kind of over the political right's hegemony on the political discourse, but I can easily see Merz running for a third time. He might even win this time round.

The thing is how many voters who are truly both economic right-wingers and social liberals actually exist? I mean, it's for a reason that the "liberal" (as in a Germano-Benelux sense) have never been able to dominate their countries politically until recently. And I don't think Germany has them to the same degree as say the Netherlands.

It would seem to me pure "centrism" would do better than socially liberal thatcherites. I'd have a hard time seeing a party like the FDP becoming the country's largest party unless they made some major changes to their platform.

And I mean it's not like Laschet's some radical socon or anything, why are the socially liberal voters deserting him for the FDP?

So if the AfD does well then the CDU's right would have the upper hand if I understood you correctly?

Last of all, for Merz, I mean who else does the CDU even have left? It seems like the more centrist figures in the party all either got pushed out of the way or otherwise were trainwrecks.

[Former President tack50]

Latin America, Europe, the US…the political right is in shambles .

italy and spain say hi

Last time I checked Spain had a left of centre government?

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Who would Russia prefer to see win the election between the CDU, the SPD and the Greens?

The Greens are the most hawkish on Russia, being strongly against Nord Stream 2 and for closer ties with the United States; while the CDU/CSU is the most dovish, supporting Merkel’s foreign policy of putting German commercial and economic interests above ideology. The SPD is somewhere in between.

BTW, a result like that in Bavaria (CSU under 30 and SPD/Greens splitting the centre-left vote in half) really could explode the size of the Bundestag because of compensation seats, as CSU probably still would win most of the direct seats.

Germany failed at building a “Thousand-year Reich”, so now they are aiming for a more achievable “Thousand-seat Bundestag”.

Huh, quite the change.

Even as late as the 2000s I believe that the SPD was more friendly towards Russia than the CDU

That was mostly due to the Lord of the Rings (Gerhard Schröder), who apart from having a long history of marriages was and is a complete Russophile. The Red-Green government’s chilly relations with the Bush administration over the Iraq War also played a role, fomenting the CDU’s image as the pro-American party.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

And I mean it's not like Laschet's some radical socon or anything, why are the socially liberal voters deserting him for the FDP?

They are deserting the CDU just like everyone who is not a CDU core voter does too. Nobody wants him to be chancellor. It's not even a matter of policy disagreements. Most people don't know what Laschet's policy stances are. Politically, he is an empty suit, the most generic CDU candidate one can imagine. Personally, he is perceived as weak, indecisive, incoherent, and clownish.

So if the AfD does well then the CDU's right would have the upper hand if I understood you correctly?

That has been the default reaction of the CDU to rising AfD support in the last few years. Many in the party have now realized that this is not a good idea (Markus Söder certainly has). But there are still many in the CDU, especially on the lower levels and especially in the East, who would happily welcome a rightward shift as they are still under enormous pressure from the AfD to their right. It doesn't help that Laschet is perceived as a candidate from the same party establishment that has supported Merkel when she was at her most vulnerable (2015/16).

Last of all, for Merz, I mean who else does the CDU even have left? It seems like the more centrist figures in the party all either got pushed out of the way or otherwise were trainwrecks.

You are right. There are very few people left in the first and second row of the CDU who have the gravitas to lead the party. Merz has a strong case:
The party base wanted him in 2018. The party delegates chose AKK. Awful result.
The party base wanted him in 2021. The party delegates chose Laschet. Even worse.
I don't know whether it would make much sense for the CDU to take Merz as their leader. But parties don't necessarily act rationally.

[Astatine]

Is there any plausible scenario the SPD can still blow this? Or a "last card" CDU can play? If early voting or VBM starts, I would think the clock is ticking?

I hope the polls don't change much any more and as far as I know European polls are more reliable than for US elections. For the CDU to come in 1st, the polls need to off by 5 pts on average as we speak. That's unlikely, isn't it?

VBM/Early voting has already started and is projected to be on an all-time high. Only few city publish statistics about that ahead of the election, but Leipzig for instance already has already issued about 90,000 postal ballots, about as many as in the whole 2017 election (turnout 75 %, 20 % VBM). The clock is ticking, although it might be a small relief to the CDU that although many voters have opted for VBM already, they still have not cast their vote (at this point in time, 33 % of the issued VBM ballots in Leipzig had been returned already, the rate is 25 % this year).

As of now, it really doesn't seem as if there is much that can still save CDU/CSU. There could be a polling error in favor of the Union, but then again, many CDU/CSU campaigners are really not optimistic at all about this election.
CDU/CSU obviously tries to play the "red socks" playbook, but it doesn't work lol.

[Lechasseur]

And I mean it's not like Laschet's some radical socon or anything, why are the socially liberal voters deserting him for the FDP?

They are deserting the CDU just like everyone who is not a CDU core voter does too. Nobody wants him to be chancellor. It's not even a matter of policy disagreements. Most people don't know what Laschet's policy stances are. Politically, he is an empty suit, the most generic CDU candidate one can imagine. Personally, he is perceived as weak, indecisive, incoherent, and clownish.

So if the AfD does well then the CDU's right would have the upper hand if I understood you correctly?

That has been the default reaction of the CDU to rising AfD support in the last few years. Many in the party have now realized that this is not a good idea (Markus Söder certainly has). But there are still many in the CDU, especially on the lower levels and especially in the East, who would happily welcome a rightward shift as they are still under enormous pressure from the AfD to their right. It doesn't help that Laschet is perceived as a candidate from the same party establishment that has supported Merkel when she was at her most vulnerable (2015/16).

Last of all, for Merz, I mean who else does the CDU even have left? It seems like the more centrist figures in the party all either got pushed out of the way or otherwise were trainwrecks.

You are right. There are very few people left in the first and second row of the CDU who have the gravitas to lead the party. Merz has a strong case:
The party base wanted him in 2018. The party delegates chose AKK. Awful result.
The party base wanted him in 2021. The party delegates chose Laschet. Even worse.
I don't know whether it would make much sense for the CDU to take Merz as their leader. But parties don't necessarily act rationally.

Why's that? I get he's conservative, but is there anyone else left? I don't think picking Laschet in order to own Merz was a particularly smart choice on the CDU's part.

But yeah I agree with the rest of what you said.

Just one last thing, when we were discussing alternatives to the CDU, I mean I think at this point FDP are basically at their ceiling. I have a hard time seeing them gain much more than they already have.

[WMS]

Who would Russia prefer to see win the election between the CDU, the SPD and the Greens?

The Greens are the most hawkish on Russia, being strongly against Nord Stream 2 and for closer ties with the United States; while the CDU/CSU is the most dovish, supporting Merkel’s foreign policy of putting German commercial and economic interests above ideology. The SPD is somewhere in between.

BTW, a result like that in Bavaria (CSU under 30 and SPD/Greens splitting the centre-left vote in half) really could explode the size of the Bundestag because of compensation seats, as CSU probably still would win most of the direct seats.

Germany failed at building a “Thousand-year Reich”, so now they are aiming for a more achievable “Thousand-seat Bundestag”.

Huh, quite the change.

Even as late as the 2000s I believe that the SPD was more friendly towards Russia than the CDU

That was mostly due to the Lord of the Rings (Gerhard Schröder), who apart from having a long history of marriages was and is a complete Russophile. The Red-Green government’s chilly relations with the Bush administration over the Iraq War also played a role, fomenting the CDU’s image as the pro-American party.

Ah, yes, Gerhard Schröder. Still adored by some for his “principles” despite not actually having any beyond rabid Russophilia and equally rabid Americaphobia. I mean he immediately went to the board of Nord Stream AG and later Rosneft. Talk about personally profiting from decisions he made as Prime Minister!

[Lechasseur]

Who would Russia prefer to see win the election between the CDU, the SPD and the Greens?

The Greens are the most hawkish on Russia, being strongly against Nord Stream 2 and for closer ties with the United States; while the CDU/CSU is the most dovish, supporting Merkel’s foreign policy of putting German commercial and economic interests above ideology. The SPD is somewhere in between.

BTW, a result like that in Bavaria (CSU under 30 and SPD/Greens splitting the centre-left vote in half) really could explode the size of the Bundestag because of compensation seats, as CSU probably still would win most of the direct seats.

Germany failed at building a “Thousand-year Reich”, so now they are aiming for a more achievable “Thousand-seat Bundestag”.

Huh, quite the change.

Even as late as the 2000s I believe that the SPD was more friendly towards Russia than the CDU

That was mostly due to the Lord of the Rings (Gerhard Schröder), who apart from having a long history of marriages was and is a complete Russophile. The Red-Green government’s chilly relations with the Bush administration over the Iraq War also played a role, fomenting the CDU’s image as the pro-American party.

Ah, yes, Gerhard Schröder. Still adored by some for his “principles” despite not actually having any beyond rabid Russophilia and equally rabid Americaphobia. I mean he immediately went to the board of Nord Stream AG and later Rosneft. Talk about personally profiting from decisions he made as Prime Minister!

And actually on the subject of historic Russophilia in the SPD, isn't that basically why the Western allies backed the CDU and Adenauer at the beginning of the BRD? Because the CDU was staunchly pro-Western and anti-Soviet, while the SPD was more somewhere in between?

[WMS]

Who would Russia prefer to see win the election between the CDU, the SPD and the Greens?

The Greens are the most hawkish on Russia, being strongly against Nord Stream 2 and for closer ties with the United States; while the CDU/CSU is the most dovish, supporting Merkel’s foreign policy of putting German commercial and economic interests above ideology. The SPD is somewhere in between.

BTW, a result like that in Bavaria (CSU under 30 and SPD/Greens splitting the centre-left vote in half) really could explode the size of the Bundestag because of compensation seats, as CSU probably still would win most of the direct seats.

Germany failed at building a “Thousand-year Reich”, so now they are aiming for a more achievable “Thousand-seat Bundestag”.

Huh, quite the change.

Even as late as the 2000s I believe that the SPD was more friendly towards Russia than the CDU

That was mostly due to the Lord of the Rings (Gerhard Schröder), who apart from having a long history of marriages was and is a complete Russophile. The Red-Green government’s chilly relations with the Bush administration over the Iraq War also played a role, fomenting the CDU’s image as the pro-American party.

Ah, yes, Gerhard Schröder. Still adored by some for his “principles” despite not actually having any beyond rabid Russophilia and equally rabid Americaphobia. I mean he immediately went to the board of Nord Stream AG and later Rosneft. Talk about personally profiting from decisions he made as Prime Minister!

And actually on the subject of historic Russophilia in the SPD, isn't that basically why the Western allies backed the CDU and Adenauer at the beginning of the BRD? Because the CDU was staunchly pro-Western and anti-Soviet, while the SPD was more somewhere in between?

On that question I will defer to those like Al who know a lot more about it. He did mention one of the early SPD leaders calling the East German Communists “Red Fascists” which hits the nail on the head IMO…