🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Former President tack50]

Aren't no-confidence votes in Germany supposed to be constructive? (ie they need an alternative candidate)

Because in that case, barring some sort of impossible SPD candidate backed by FDP, Linke and Grune there's no scenario that doesn't lead to Chancellor AKK (even in a very weak minority government) or Merkel staying

[Former President tack50]

Wait, aren't the Jusos supposed to be the more radical (left wing) part of SPD? Generally youth wings tend to be more extreme than the party at large

Also, if red-red-green gets a majority and SPD (or Grüne) refuse to go for it, they unironically deserve falling below the 5% threshold. What's the point of voting SPD or Grüne if you won't get a left wing government out of it when one actually gets a chance of being formed?

[Former President tack50]

From what I sometimes see of East German AfD supporters on Facebook (a few of them I even knew personally) their voters in the east have started to embrace some sort of bizarre "East German nationalism". For instance, profile pictures that depict East Germany as the "Real Germany", while West Germany is the "Muslim Germany" are not uncommon. Often this is  intermingled with "Proud to be born in the GDR" pictures or the East German flag and the like. East Germany is 97% White therefore only that party counts is German etc. Sometimes I wonder when they will start to go fully separatist?

That makes me wonder, is there anyone who wants the former GDR to secede from the rest of Germany?

After all, I imagine there must be at least a few tankie communists who opposed reunification in 1990 or something right?

[Former President tack50]

It would be intresting to see what would happen if the Greens went way over to the right on immigration and retained their other policies.  Would they be able to absorb lots of voters on the right, and still retain the bulk of their current voters?

You mean like the Baden-Württemberg Greens do?
They are pretty right-wing and have only few in common with the latte liberal Greens from Prenzlauer Berg.
Tübingen Mayor Boris Palmer, for example, regularly provokes fierce public controversy; just recently he complained about the German railway company Deutsche Bahn not showing enough Germans without a migratory background in their advertisements. The controversy he caused was so bitter that other Green politicians pressed for his exclusion.

Huh, I thought the BW Greens (or conserva-greens in general) were more of the "socially liberal, fiscally right wing style" and not the other way around

[Former President tack50]

Interesting debates going on in the SPD.
While most now agree it cant go on the way they have been going over the last years, the opponents of the current course seem to be splitting:
-The ones around Kühnert who want to leave the coalition and move to a full scale corbyn party and onto the territory of die linke see themselves vindicated
-However, and this is new, more voices including Sigmar Gabriel (Editorial in the Handelsblatt) and Thomas Oppermann, are calling in the Example of the Danish Social Democrats for a strong move to the right on immigration to win back the white working class for the SPD. Already a couple of days ago the SPD helped pass a strict deportation laws in the Bundestag. Funny considering Sarrazin was disgraced by the Party (and Gabriel) for calling for such a shift a couple of years ago.

Wait, why are they splitting? Those 2 objectives are totally compatible with each other.

You could easily have the SPD moving to the left on economics like Corbyn and getting close to Die Linke and at the same time adopting a hard line on inmigration. The Danish Social Democrats should indeed be the role model for the SPD moving forward.

Whether voters will believe that change or not is another story of course. But those 2 goals are compatible with each other. If extremely successful, I could see the SPD sweeping former East Germany, getting Linke voters (because economics) and AfD voters (because inmigration)

[Former President tack50]

In the March 1933 Reichstag election, the SPD received 18.25%.

The third - and to face the unvarnished truth: already the second grand coalition - was the SPD's casket nail.

Hinsight is obviously 20/20, but the SPD should have gone with Red-Red-Green back in 2013. Arguably also in 2005 but that one is a lot more debatable.

Why didn't they go for Red-Red-Green in 2013?

[Former President tack50]

New ARD poll from Tagesschau



Hopefully CDU pays the price for pushing von der Leyen through in the backrooms.

It's really interesting to see how Uschi is much more popular beyond the German borders than within. 😂
And it's even more ironic to realize that Uschi will perish where she was born. 😁

By the way, now that Uschi and Gerste are about to be deported to Brussels and Strasbourg, respectively, who do you think will become their successors in their respective ministry?

When Germany sends its people, they are not sending their best I see

[Former President tack50]

So, Environment Minister Svenja Schulze (or whatever her name is) is planning on a CO₂ tax (presumably 20 €/t !!!), including a "climate premium", i.e. an upward redistribution from the poor to the rich, and from the rural areas to the urban areas. 😡
The SPD hasn't heard the shot and they don't have all pickets on the fence anymore. 🤬

Why would a carbon tax be a tax on the poor to give the money to the rich? (especially with a climate premium). I imagine most big pollutants would be large businesses and rich people?

[Former President tack50]

Why hasn't Höcke officially become AfD leader yet? Or is he essencially the AfD's Chancellor candidate for 2021 in all but name?

[Former President tack50]

Can't Germany just cap the Bundestag at 598, giving 299 district seats and using the other 299 to balance the parliament only "as close as possible" to perfect proportionality? (but without reaching it)

In the extremely unlikely scenario that say, the CDU somehow sweeps every district seat on 30% of the vote, then I suppose Germany will just have to "deal with it" and not have 100% perfect proportionality.

This would still be a proportional system, even if not a perfectly proportional one.

Using the 2017 results and an Excel spreadsheet, here is what I'd guess as a final result:

CDU: 185 (185 Constituency, 0 List)
CSU: 46 (46 Constituency, 0 List)
Total Union: 231

SPD: 124 (59 Constituency, 65 List)
AfD: 74 (3 Constituency, 71 List)
FDP: 63 (0 Constituency, 63 List)
Linke: 54 (5 Constituency, 49 List)
Grüne: 52 (1 Constituency, 51 List)

This benefits the CDU/CSU slightly at the expense of basically everyone else. Still, given the recent political fragmentation in Germany this would also help very slightly into government formation.

Interestingly, CDU+FDP and CDU+Grüne fall just barely short of a majority here, at 294 and 285 seats respectively. CDU+AfD does (barely) get a majority but that would not happen. So Germany would probably still see a Grand coalition.

In terms of misrepresentation, the CDU has 16 more seats than it should and the CSU has 7 more than it should. Everyone else loses 4 or 5 seats.

[Former President tack50]

What is the point of having 2 people as party leaders? (Especially when both are going to be women, I thought the double candidates thing was a bad excuse for "equality" or whatever?)

[Former President tack50]

The polls show a very stable scenario of the division of votes according to left and right
Right-wing bloc: CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD = 51%
Left-wing bloc: SPD+Grünen+Linke = 43%
This ~8 point margin for the right-wing bloc we see unchanged in the last months. The share of vote for each party change a little bit

With the important limitation that there is no such thing as a 'right-wing bloc' in Germany. There's the CDU/CSU (a party alliance that calls itself centrist and is at most moderately center-right) and the FDP (which is in many regards more socially liberal and modern than the SPD). And then, completely isolated, there's the quasi-fascist AfD.

Categories such as 'left-wing' and 'right-wing' only lead to confusion when analyzing such a constellation. There are far more voters switching from CDU/CSU to the Greens than to the AfD and if we take a look at the coalitions that have been ruled out, we quickly find a similar pattern:

CDU/CSU - LINKE
FDP - LINKE

but

CDU/CSU - AfD
FDP - AfD
SPD - AfD
Greens - AFD
LINKE - AfD

So, a more reasonable categorization would be:

Center-left to left: 43%
Center-right: 40%
---
Far-right (irrelevant): 11%

Alternatively:

CDU/CSU-Greens: 53%
All others: 41%

Are you sure about that?



Also, isn't R2G a viable coalition? Talking about a left wing bloc certainly makes sense, especially given it is the only way (other than traffic lights) to take the CDU out of the Chancellorship. I will admit the "right wing bloc" characterization makes less sense though.

[Former President tack50]

What is the profile of a CDU-Greens swing voter?

[Former President tack50]

At this rate I guess Merkel hopefully runs for a fifth term

[Former President tack50]

Looking at the poll with Laschet, is it just me or is "Traffic light" an underrated possibility for coalition? I realize red-red-green isn't necessarily that likely but replacing Linke with the FDP seems like an easy way to finally bring back the CDU into opposition.

[Former President tack50]

While the way Laschet got the nomination deserves a lot of criticism, it's kinda ridiculous the Union is losing far more support in polls with this move than much more serious (ongoing) scandals. Like the so called "mask affairs" in which rank and file politicans enrich themselves from a pandemic, Spahn's missmanagement and especially Andi Scheuer's embarrassing and total incompetence as Transportation Minister. The public is responding like Laschet is either some extreme ideologue or had a ton of personal baggage, when neither is the case. That this approach to the nomination appears worse than the issues above is also, at least partially, a result of inadequate press coverage. Laschet deserves criticism for the nominating process, but the hate he's getting is inappropriate in my opinion.

It's not hate, more so anger at the disconnect with the voters and disappointment at yet another "weiter so" candidate.

He's the definition of a softie who will always "find compromises". I mean, that's even how he markets himself, but that's not what the people want right now.

Thing is, Germans do want another "weiter so" candidate? Isn't Merkel super popular? With sky high approvals and what not?

[Former President tack50]

Haven't the German Greens moderated so much that they are actually to the right of the SPD in economic policy these days? Then again I guess the SPD has sold out quite a bit too.

[Former President tack50]

Couldn't some new low impact ministeries be devised if Linke were to be part of the government. You know, make a Linke person Minister of Fitness and Amateur Sport and another can be Minister of the Arts or Roads and Highways

Like others said, Germany doesn't work that way, but that is what Pedro Sánchez did here when he gave Podemos cabinet ministries. Just give them a bunch of useless do-nothing ministries that have one useful purpose at best.

[Former President tack50]

Decided to do the Wahl-o-Mat and this has to be the weirdest result I've had in a political test ever, it's not even particularly close. I even removed the weights and the result was even dumber somehow

57% FDP
57% CDU/CSU
55% AfD
55% Grüne
55% Linke
53% SPD

Does this mean I am the ultimate German swing voter? 

[Former President tack50]

Latin America, Europe, the US…the political right is in shambles .

italy and spain say hi

Last time I checked Spain had a left of centre government?

[Former President tack50]

Disappointing result given that the left still does not have a majority. I am hoping for traffic light at least but Germany will disappoint me and go for Jamaica I am sure (or worse yet, GroKo again)

[Former President tack50]

Disappointing result given that the left still does not have a majority. I am hoping for traffic light at least but Germany will disappoint me and go for Jamaica I am sure (or worse yet, GroKo again)

Honestly, I'd prefer GroKo to either of the tricolor options. FDP should be kept out of power at all costs.

I could understand if you meant the AfD; but why exactly would FDP be so bad in power? Worst criticism I can think of is them as some sort of party with few principles?

[Former President tack50]

Disappointing result given that the left still does not have a majority. I am hoping for traffic light at least but Germany will disappoint me and go for Jamaica I am sure (or worse yet, GroKo again)

Honestly, I'd prefer GroKo to either of the tricolor options. FDP should be kept out of power at all costs.

I could understand if you meant the AfD; but why exactly would FDP be so bad in power? Worst criticism I can think of is them as some sort of party with few principles?

They're unreconstructed neoliberals and austerity fanatics in both German and EU politics. That's the last thing we need following a devastating pandemic.

I mean, wouldn't this apply to the CDU too? Plus especially in a traffic light coalition I expect the SPD to counter this influence (I understand the worry if Jamaica happens)

[Former President tack50]

Some of the takes on this thread when the exit polls dropped

It's a well established tradition that every time a large European country has an election, the thread immediately gets bombarded with American teenagers' takes that make the regulars want to pull their hair out

Good idea not to be online on election night. I know that many people come here to learn and I am very happy to provide information to anyone who needs them, but I must say that the one take that the FDP might form a coalition under their chancellorship if both Union and SPD fail to form a majority is the most ridiculous thing I've ever read on this thread.

You mean an FDP-Grune-AfD-Linke coalition isn't realistic? 

[Former President tack50]

To have fun with multi-party-system election results in big cities of the east aka party system fragmentation electric boogaloo, here ist the city of Dresden

SPD: 17,7 %
AfD: 17,6 %
Greens: 16,8 %
CDU: 14,5 %
FDP: 12,0%
Left: 11,1%
Animal Protection: 1,7 %
dieBasis (anti-anti-Covid-measures): 1,7 %
Free Voters: 1,7 %
PARTEI (parody party, quite young, left-wing electorate): 1,6 %
Pirates: 0,8 %
Others: 2,7 %

I now wonder how a precinct map of Dresden would look like