🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

The Green surge gives me Martin Schulz vibes, who started losing ground once he missed to put out more detailed policy plans and had three state elections going not well. Greens will definitely get a good result, but I'm not sure they can overtake the Union.

I think there a couple differences with the 2017 SPD surge. Unlike during the Schulz effect, it’s not just the SPD/Greens surging, it’s also the CDU/CSU crashing. Forsa has them all the way down on 21%, seven points behind the Greens; while in 2017 the Union never fell more than one point behind the SPD and managed to stay in the low 30s (where they had been polling already for months before the Schulz effect).

Now, it’s just one pollster. But, INSA also has the CDU crashing below 25%, while Kantar’s fieldwork barely covered Armin Laschet’s Chancellor candidacy. If the Kantar survey had been conducted one or two days later it probably would have shown something more along the lines of Forsa. We will have to wait for more numbers to confirm it, but there seems to be a trend.

Another difference is the state election calendar. We just have Sachsen-Anhalt ahead of us (before the federal election, anyways), which, while being an Eastern state means isn’t fertile ground for the Greens, is essentially guaranteed to provide an increased result for the party, according to current polling perhaps even doubling its present standing. In any case, it’s impossible for the Greens to suffer anything akin to the blows the SPD got in 2017, when they lost a popular Minister-President in their heartland and largest state in Germany while at the same time enduring disappointing (and decreased) results in the Saarland and Schleswig-Holstein.

Thirdly, while Baerbock’s candidacy, much like Schulz’s, has been very positively received; one shouldn’t discount the fact that Laschet’s reception has been extremely negative so far, maybe even outweighing the positive coverage of Annalena Baerbock. This obviously wasn’t a factor with Merkel, who was an incumbent Chancellor completely known to and well-liked by the electorate. Similar to polling developments, it’s not just the SPD/Greens doing well/choosing a good candidate, it’s also the CDU/CSU doing badly/choosing a bad candidate.

But of course, the Greens could still lose their momentum during the next five months. It wouldn’t have to be the same process that happened to Schulz, it’s a very different election. And, after all, it wouldn’t be the first time a Green surge wears off (Fukushima 2011, EP election 2019), and the party is quite accustomed to over-polling. If it were for polling, the Greens wouldn’t be the smallest party in the Bundestag for four elections in a row right now. Plus, the CDU/CSU has proved to be quite resilient over the years, and Laschet, being currently at the bottom, shouldn’t have anywhere to go but upwards. We will have to wait and see.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

It is becoming a trend, so I wonder what the numbers look like under the hood. Probably a case of Laschet still has not regained the complete confidence of the Union electorate in his individual after the machinations with Söder and/or Merz, but the Union as a whole still has enjoys their voters grudging support.

Baerbock also lacks the complete of her voters, which I would assume is because of how one cannot embody both sides of the Greens eternal factional dichotomy is a single person - but who knows.

The Greens have not been marred by any significant internal factionalism during this campaign. Baerbock flopped because of a series of scandals (or rather “scandals”) and her ineffective response to them, along with some unforced gaffes of her own. She now seems to have hit the floor, possibly leaving some room for recovery, but that remains to be seen.

Laschet is tanking now because of plagiarism allegations together with his lackluster response to the floods last month (side note - Gerhard Schröder would have walked away with this election), which have been especially damaging to him considering he started his candidacy from the disadvantageous position of being Armin Laschet.

The Scholzomat is attracting voter preferences from almost all parties due to this, essentially his virtue of being neither.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Who would Russia prefer to see win the election between the CDU, the SPD and the Greens?

The Greens are the most hawkish on Russia, being strongly against Nord Stream 2 and for closer ties with the United States; while the CDU/CSU is the most dovish, supporting Merkel’s foreign policy of putting German commercial and economic interests above ideology. The SPD is somewhere in between.

BTW, a result like that in Bavaria (CSU under 30 and SPD/Greens splitting the centre-left vote in half) really could explode the size of the Bundestag because of compensation seats, as CSU probably still would win most of the direct seats.

Germany failed at building a “Thousand-year Reich”, so now they are aiming for a more achievable “Thousand-seat Bundestag”.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Who would Russia prefer to see win the election between the CDU, the SPD and the Greens?

The Greens are the most hawkish on Russia, being strongly against Nord Stream 2 and for closer ties with the United States; while the CDU/CSU is the most dovish, supporting Merkel’s foreign policy of putting German commercial and economic interests above ideology. The SPD is somewhere in between.

BTW, a result like that in Bavaria (CSU under 30 and SPD/Greens splitting the centre-left vote in half) really could explode the size of the Bundestag because of compensation seats, as CSU probably still would win most of the direct seats.

Germany failed at building a “Thousand-year Reich”, so now they are aiming for a more achievable “Thousand-seat Bundestag”.

Huh, quite the change.

Even as late as the 2000s I believe that the SPD was more friendly towards Russia than the CDU

That was mostly due to the Lord of the Rings (Gerhard Schröder), who apart from having a long history of marriages was and is a complete Russophile. The Red-Green government’s chilly relations with the Bush administration over the Iraq War also played a role, fomenting the CDU’s image as the pro-American party.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Studio literally crashes down as Annalena Baerbock speaks

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Infratest Dimap poll (first half of the debate):

Winner:
Scholz 39%
Baerbock 25%
Laschet 24%

Likability:
Baerbock 37%
Scholz 35%
Laschet 18%

Competence:
Scholz 46%
Laschet 24%
Baerbock 19%

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Recap of the debate:

Baerbock: content
Scholz: exists
Laschi: own goals


Is that about right?

I think Scholz did show more energy than in the first debate, especially when he put up a formidable defence against Laschet's attacks on CumEx, WireCard and the Finance Ministry raid.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll for ZDF (first half of the debate)

Winner:
Scholz: 34%
Baerbock: 26%
Laschet: 16%

The candidates did better than/worse than/as expected:
Laschet: 27%/15%/57%
Scholz: 28%/11%/59%
Baerbock: 44%/11%/43%

Most genuine:
Scholz: 31%
Baerbock: 30%
Laschet: 14%

Most likable:
Scholz: 36%
Baerbock: 29%
Laschet: 12%

Most prepared:
Scholz: 45%
Laschet: 16%
Baerbock: 13%

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Infratest Dimap poll (whole debate):

Winner:
Scholz: 41%
Laschet: 27%
Baerbock: 25%

Winner (among undecided voters):
Scholz: 36%
Laschet: 25%
Baerbock: 25%

Most likable:
Baerbock: 39%
Scholz: 34%
Laschet: 18%

Most competent:
Scholz: 49%
Laschet: 26%
Baerbock: 18%

Most genuine:
Scholz: 39%
Laschet: 26%
Baerbock: 26%

Most vigurous:
Baerbock: 41%
Scholz: 28%
Laschet: 25%


Preferred Chancellor (before/after the debate):
Scholz: 43%/43%
Laschet: 19%/24%
Baerbock: 13%/19%

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll (whole debate):

Winner:
Scholz: 32%
Baerbock: 26%
Laschet: 20%

The candidates did better than/worse than/as expected:
Laschet: 35%/12%/57%
Scholz: 27%/15%/58%
Baerbock: 53%/8%/43%

Most likable:
Baerbock: 39%
Scholz: 28%
Laschet: 14%

Most prepared:
Scholz: 40%
Laschet: 21%
Baerbock: 12%

Most genuine:
Scholz: 31%
Baerbock: 25%
Laschet: 22%

Preferred Chancellor (before/after the debate):
Scholz: 55%/46%
Laschet: 19%/28%
Baerbock: 19%/20%

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

A last minute Forsa poll shows that Germans' preferred post-election coalitions are Red-Green-Red and Jamaica, with Traffic Light in a distant third place:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1442116012845920262?s=20
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