2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

DRA Map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c5a707bb-33d7-4696-b80a-ecfbcb7fb506

2016/2020 PVIs:
1 R+4
2 D+6
3 D+9
4 D+34
5 D+19
6 D+8
7 D+27
8 D+14

Aren’t those PVIs skewed by Hogan 2018?

I don't think DRA includes that in the calculations?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's 2012/2016 and 2016/2020 PVIs for each of these districts, compared
MD-01: R+5.16>R+3.68
MD-02: D+5.15>D+6.22
MD-03: D+5.38>D+9.49
MD-04: D+33.54>D+33.81
MD-05: D+18.01>D+19.2
MD-06: D+5.17>D+7.99
MD-07: D+25.91>D+26.94
MD-08: D+10.83>D+14.16
MD (overall): D+12.12>D+13.98
MD-03 shifted a full 4 points in PVI. Wow.

[Virginiá]

Ahahaa, my childhood home just narrowly missed being in the new MD-6*.

What is the likely trend for this district over the next 10 years? Washington Co appears content around 55-59% R and the way Frederick County seems to be going, a Lean Dem seat by 2026-2028?

[lfromnj]

Ahahaa, my childhood home just narrowly missed being in the new MD-01. Just a couple precincts away, comfortably sandwiched between, checks notes, Washington DC and Andy Harris. Yikes.

What is the likely trend for this district over the next 10 years? The way Frederick County seems to be going, a Lean Dem seat by 2026-2028?

Frederick County isn't in the district. Anne Arrundel's trend is clear. I am wondering if there was a bit of a Biden  Delaware effect in some of the Eastern Shore and a temporary military swing in Southern Harford. Overall a Dem trend.

[Virginiá]

Ahahaa, my childhood home just narrowly missed being in the new MD-01. Just a couple precincts away, comfortably sandwiched between, checks notes, Washington DC and Andy Harris. Yikes.

What is the likely trend for this district over the next 10 years? The way Frederick County seems to be going, a Lean Dem seat by 2026-2028?

Frederick County isn't in the district. Anne Arrundel's trend is clear. I am wondering if there was a bit of a Biden effect in some of the Eastern Shore and a tempotary military swing in Southern Harford. Overall a Dem trend.

yea nvm I misread the map, wrong district#

[If my soul was made of stone]

Ahahaa, my childhood home just narrowly missed being in the new MD-01. Just a couple precincts away, comfortably sandwiched between, checks notes, Washington DC and Andy Harris. Yikes.

What is the likely trend for this district over the next 10 years? The way Frederick County seems to be going, a Lean Dem seat by 2026-2028?

Frederick County isn't in the district. Anne Arundel's trend is clear. I am wondering if there was a bit of a Biden  Delaware effect in some of the Eastern Shore and a temporary military swing in Southern Harford. Overall a Dem trend.

The counties on the Eastern Shore where Biden made major improvements have been trending Dem in statewide elections for a while.

Talbot County, where I was born, has a large population of retirees that actually did manifest a substantial "gray-haired revolt" or whatever Charlie Cook wanted to call it when he expected Biden to crack 40% in The Villages, which I suppose is a function of the states' relative political and cultural environments. The larger towns in Talbot County have already mainly voted Democratic since 2008.

Wicomico County, where Trump was held below 50%, has a strong divide between the majority-minority college town of Salisbury and most everywhere else. Biden made major gains in Salisbury proper and its whiter surroundings, in line with the rest of the state, but the very Southern rural population was enough to cancel it out. We see a somewhat similar pattern in neighboring Dorchester, which is extremely racially polarized on the federal level but swingy in state elections (and almost voted for Obama in '12).

In perennially competitive Kent County, rural swings were unimpressive but Biden got enough of a boost in Chestertown and boat people country to cancel out the rest. For some reason Wikipedia suggests that the swing in Kent was aided by development spillover from Delaware, but I see no evidence of this especially since the parts of Kent on the border are the most Republican in the county and barely moved from '16.

Demographic change, as in much of the rest of the state, is responsible for a good deal of the movement in Harford, although surely Trump's strained relations with the military didn't help his case there.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Disco, thoughts on this compactness/county integrity map I drew earlier today?
https://davesredistricting.org/join/5f2da6d8-41db-4cf0-a73e-7efb5bec9528

[If my soul was made of stone]

Disco, thoughts on this compactness/county integrity map I drew earlier today?
https://davesredistricting.org/join/5f2da6d8-41db-4cf0-a73e-7efb5bec9528

These are fairly solid district configurations on the whole. More could be done on the whole to minimize municipal splits (or non-municipal splits, given that we in this state love our unincorporated communities), but besides that my only major gripe within these constraints is that I would give the rural west of Howard to the 6th in exchange for the 7th taking in more of Reisterstown and its environs. Many of the Marylanders with whom I've discussed redistricting would balk at keeping Harford whole, but I still see it as a matter of taste.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Disco, thoughts on this compactness/county integrity map I drew earlier today?
https://davesredistricting.org/join/5f2da6d8-41db-4cf0-a73e-7efb5bec9528

These are fairly solid district configurations on the whole. More could be done on the whole to minimize municipal splits (or non-municipal splits, given that we in this state love our unincorporated communities), but besides that my only major gripe within these constraints is that I would give the rural west of Howard to the 6th in exchange for the 7th taking in more of Reisterstown and its environs. Many of the Marylanders with whom I've discussed redistricting would balk at keeping Harford whole, but I still see it as a matter of taste.

I can't believe the idea of putting most of Howard in the 7th didn't hit me before.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/e4be199f-d7b6-4b37-94de-1ba9359782f5
Since this was a county integrity map, I tried to avoid an additional county split by removing all of the 6th's share of Baltimore County. The results were...not good? From the looks of it.

[Pericles]

Yikes, that map is truly disgusting, and sh*t like that should be illegal.

[Torie]

Another lawsuit. This one, albeit from a Pub perspective, channels the NC one that even though SCOTUS has ruled there is no gas against gerrymandering in the US Constitution tank, the identical or close to identical language in the state constitution does. The only problem with the analogy is that both state high courts are Dem friendly, and appear to be quite hackish, so a suit against a Dem map before a hackish Dem court is likely DOA, just like the last round. Which is why it is bad practice for states to copy cat  the US Constitution with broad sweeping undefined language about rights. What that does is just give their courts power, and given the judges run on partisan lines (another bad practice), the courts become a third sector of the legislative branch which can nullify what the other two sectors do. And the stakes get higher as to who wins the judge election on a partisan basis. All that fluff should be removed immediately.

https://www.marylandmatters.org/2021/12/08/fair-maps-maryland-announces-lawsuit-against-just-approved-congressional-redistricting-plan/

[Antonio the Sixth]

Another lawsuit. This one, albeit from a Pub perspective, channels the NC one that even though SCOTUS has ruled there is no gas against gerrymandering in the US Constitution tank, the identical or close to identical language in the state constitution does. The only problem with the analogy is that both state high courts are Dem friendly, and appear to be quite hackish, so a suit against a Dem map before a hackish Dem court is likely DOA, just like the last round. Which is why it is bad practice for states to copy cat  the US Constitution with broad sweeping undefined language about rights. What that does is just give their courts power, and given the judges run on partisan lines (another bad practice), the courts become a third sector of the legislative branch which can nullify what the other two sectors do. And the stakes get higher as to who wins the judge election on a partisan basis. All that fluff should be removed immediately.

https://www.marylandmatters.org/2021/12/08/fair-maps-maryland-announces-lawsuit-against-just-approved-congressional-redistricting-plan/

I'd be perfectly happy if both maps were overturned.

[Sol]

Here's a rough pass at a fair map of Maryland, taking into account some feedback from Discovolante:



link

Would probably shake out to be 5D-2R-1S in most years.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a rough pass at a fair map of Maryland, taking into account some feedback from Discovolante:



link

Would probably shake out to be 5D-2R-1S in most years.

I was going to express a level of unhappiness with the black % in the Baltimore CD, but it turns out it's less than 59%. Not too bad.
The map I posted above and the map you posted here feel fairly similar in their overall mentality.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

So Democratic controlled states protect Andy effin Harris to be fair or something and Republicans use their state governmental control to malapportion themselves greatly inflated representation.

Yes I see nothing wrong with this plan.

[Roll Roons]

As has been mentioned here, MD-03 is extremely ugly because Sarbanes wanted his district to overlap with the DC and Baltimore media markets so he could be in a good position to run for Senate.

But he had the chance to do so in 2016. Why didn't he take it then? Or he could have run for Governor this year and allowed the district to be substantially cleaned up.

[Sol]

As has been mentioned here, MD-03 is extremely ugly because Sarbanes wanted his district to overlap with the DC and Baltimore media markets so he could be in a good position to run for Senate.

But he had the chance to do so in 2016. Why didn't he take it then? Or he could have run for Governor this year and allowed the district to be substantially cleaned up.

The incentives are for representatives to want as close to their current district as possible in most circumstances. Sarbanes might not want higher office anymore but he's probably made connections to local communities in each tentacle of his octopus.

[Frodo]

Maryland lawmakers approve new state legislative maps as critics prepare to sue

[lfromnj]

https://www.marylandmatters.org/2022/02/11/court-of-appeals-extends-candidate-filing-deadline-amid-challenges-to-legislative-map/

[GALeftist]

https://www.marylandmatters.org/2022/02/11/court-of-appeals-extends-candidate-filing-deadline-amid-challenges-to-legislative-map/

Wow. Would be a pretty big upset if this is struck down.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.marylandmatters.org/2022/02/11/court-of-appeals-extends-candidate-filing-deadline-amid-challenges-to-legislative-map/

Wow. Would be a pretty big upset if this is struck down.

Would it? A fair map of the MD legislature, given the MMD seats in urban areas and overall partisanship would still be safe D, the net result would be whether the supermajority is similarly safe or just likely.

[lfromnj]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/maryland-state-court-deny-motion-dccc-intervent-gerrymander

DCCC not allowed to help defend the Maryland redistricting case. I think it goes to trial next week in the Anne Arundel court

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Brad7News/status/1503832699554996237

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I think it will get struck down. Maryland's court is filled with a lot of centrist Republican judges, almost all appointed by Hogan.

[politicallefty]

What is the basis of the challenge under the Maryland Constitution?