Maryland
Ah Maryland, the home of the unnecessary gerrymander. Since 2000 the map here has been more a Rorschach Test than 8 districts, even though far cleaner maps could produce the same results. Maryland has two ‘issues’ that have led to here lines. The first is that powerful dems have held seats here for a long time building up seniority, committee seats, and authority over the state legislature. Their demands cannot be ignored without serious justification. The second issue is that a lot of incumbents live next to each other in Baltimore’s north suburbs, and everyone wants their homes in their district. The Democratic supermajority in the legislature is locked in till 2022, but if they are unable to coalesce around a single map then the powerless Governor Hogan may be able to wield more authority than the parliamentary arithmetic seems to allow.
Redistricting History
Maryland Congressional Districts 1990-2000, Wikipedia
Maryland politics is unavoidably tied to its lines so we have to go all the way back to 2000. Going into the 2000 redistrict, democrats and republicans tied the state 4-4 with fairly reasonable lines. However, the democratic Trifecta sensed blood in the water and moved to draw away at least one republican. Connie Morella in Montgomery lost the reddest parts of her seat and got the Blue inner suburbs and stretched into Prince George. Then they went for the kill on Bob Ehrlich’s old Harford County centered 2nd, transforming it into the squiggly mess we all know, a mess drawn precisely to (at the time) Baltimore County executive Ruppersberger’s specifications. Both seats flipped blue in 2002, but the decision to put Ehrlich out of pointed him towards the Governor’s office. Sure, he lost in 2006, but that occurrence is a mark against the 2000 map. In 2008 Frank Kratovil picked up a 1-term rental on the 1st, facilitated by a conservative primary that ousted the long-term incumbent in favor of future Rep Andy Harris. That race featured stark polarization with Kratovil winning every county on the shore, with Harris dominating the suburban side, a divide that would influence the 2010 iteration of the seat. Harris came back in 2010, meaning that the 2010 democratic trifecta had 6 Dems and 2 GOP representatives to appease.
Maryland Congressional Districts 2000-2010, Wikipedia
Of course, its never was to be that simple. Each incumbent had demands: Harris wanted more of his base in the Suburbs, Ruppersberger wanted two military bases on either side of Baltimore in one seat, Sarbanes wanted to touch the all three major urban metros so that he could have a profile for a statewide run, Edwards wanted more Montgomery white dems in her AA seat to avoid a primary, Hoyer wanted his base in multiethnic north PG to be in his South MD seat, Bartlett just wanted to have a Red seat, Cummings wanted as much BVAP as possible, and only Van Hollen didn’t place a personal demand, in part because his 8th had gotten far more blue since it had ben drawn to oust its old GOP rep, and was fated to get carved up. The legislature, valuing seniority within it’s dem caucus, ignored Edward’s demands and then shifted the lines between the 6th and the 8th so that both were now blue. In order to appease everyone though the map ended up in its disgusting present form.
Maryland Congressional Districts since 2010, Wikipedia
Since the 2011 RedistrictingThe 2010 lines, despite their squiggles, survived multiple retirements, primaries, and a GOP wave. The 7-1 divide kept coming back, even when Delaney got a momentary scare during his 2014 reelection. More important considering the future of the state though is who is making up the 7-1. Van Drew won the senate seat, and was succeeded by Raskin. Delaney decided to be Don Quixote and was succeeded by Trone. Edwards lost the senate primary and was replaced by Brown. Cummings passed away and the seat is presently open. Even Hoyer faces a potential primary from a progressive AA resident who looks to replicate AOC’s magic. Essentially, everyone not from the Baltimore suburbs has been or might be replaced in the period since 2010, removing their potential sway over the legislature’s maps.
2021Which will have more sway: 8-0 or 7-1 with 3rd AA seat? Both are easily possible when accommodating for Hoyer and Ruppersberger’s demands, and the Dem legislature wishes to come together to prevent the third outcome: 6-2 handed down from Hogan.
The most likely outcome in my eyes is a third AA seat (with 7-1), so let’s discuss its potential first. Even with the Baltimore AA communities decline, the DC suburbs have easily put the state on their back and kept up the AA growth. The old DC Northeast is continuing to all to happily move out to PG and Charles suburbs while cashing in on the booming DC housing market for their old townhouses. Cummings’s death also makes 3 AA seats far more feasible – the guy still held old-school views on his district’s demographics. In 2000 and in 2010 he fought precinct by precinct for the African American seats, ensuring that AA voters would always have sizable majorities in their representative seats. If Hoyer isn’t going to be around in 2022 (loses 2020 primary, or retires in 2022), then drawing a third AA seat becomes comparatively simple. One no longer is ‘wasting’ AA precincts to preserve the safety of Hoyer’s seat, and one can pack the red rural counties (where Hoyer lives) into the AA seats. If Hoyer is going to be around then things get far more complex, with his district becoming something like a weird squiggle if all demands are accepted:
A Hoyer seat going from his home in the south to his base in North PG
Why is this most likely in my eyes? Well, along with the already stated growth and the Cummings issue, there is the issue of legislative captivity. The African American Caucus here is very powerful, it got control of the Speakership with Adrienne Jones last year. She won the speakership by dividing the democratic base, won the support of the emasculated state GOP, and then got her democrat opponents to bow out before they divided the state party. In many ways, the AA caucus could do the exact same thing: if the state Dems refuse to do 7-1 with 3 AA seats, then the GOP and Hogan will be happy to offer them a third AA seat for 6-2. The Dem party desires to avoid this outcome at all possible, so if the AA caucus pushes for a third seat, then the party may just end up acquiescing. Sarbanes’s seat is an ideal target for becoming the new AA seat, as he right now has first right of refusal on the gubernatorial race, and could easily be pushed for it or Cardin’s seat.
Next potential outcome: 8-0. Now, I suspect everyone here has seen
Daily Kos’s map on how the dems could get away with a cleaner 8-0 map when compared to the mess that is the current 7-1. Once again, with Cummings’s passing 8-0 becomes more feasible since AA voters are now more usable, and Baltimore potentially has AAs to give to the eastern shore depending on how the lines shape up. Similar to the AA map, pushing Sarbanes for statewide frees up space for a seat to cross the Chesapeake at the Bay Bridge to Annapolis.
Final outcome: 6-2. This requires a few things to go in Hogan’s favor, but at least the GOP has a seat at the table this time around.
Hogan has continued to support fair districts reform in the state because anything, which is what fair redistricting would entail, is better than nothing for the MD GOP. First, if the main dem party refuses to give into the AA caucus like I alluded to earlier, than the GOP would be all to happy to give Trone the axe in exchange for a third AA seat. This sort of deal would be similar to what happens in deep southern states where the AA minority caucus makes deals with the majority GOP caucus to throw the white dems under the bus – only the traditional roles are reversed. Another potential way 6-2 occurs is if fair redistricting is implemented in some fashion: either through law, through the legislature listening to the governor’s specialists, or through a legislature with the knowledge that they barely survived a legal challenge this cycle. Unlike in the other two maps, 6-2 does not require Sarbanes moving statewide, though it would certainly help clean up the lines between DC and Baltimore.
What’s left to decideWho’s going to hold what seat is the only question left to be answered. Cummings’s seat is open, and the successor may or may not view redistricting the same way as him. Hoyer is also a wildcard on whether he survives a progressive primary looking to take down the inflexible old guard.
